COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron

[ProudModerate2]

Couple shares warning sign linked to Covid-19 after (young) daughter's death.

Please watch this video if you have young children.
Having some knowledge of warning signs, could help to save a life.

https://us.cnn.com/videos/health/2021/02/23/morse-child-dies-of-coronavirus-intv-newday-vpx.cnn

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

2/22 (Today): <M>

• Cases: 28,826,307 (+60,884 | ΔW Change: ↑8.27% | Σ Increase: ↑0.21%)
• Deaths: 512,590 (+1,457 | ΔW Change: ↑41.59% | Σ Increase: ↑0.29%)

sh**t

Last week was Presidents' Day so the normal holiday backlog occurred. This is expected.

It's not listed as a backlog in Worldometers, but I suppose that it's possible. Let's see what the rest of the week looks like.

The week-over-week holiday trend isn't backlog exactly.  It's just that the previous week's cases were irregularly low, so even if we were getting a normal number of cases this week (or a steady trend in case decrease), they are going to look higher relative to last week.

Generally, cases have been decreasing about 20% per week for the last 6 weeks.  But last Monday and Tuesday, they decreased about 40% due to recording irregularities from the holiday.  If the real trend of 20%/week were still ongoing, we should expect cases to decline this week 36% compared to two weeks ago, but actually increase 4% compared to last week.

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 2/23 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

ΔW Change: Comparisons of Weekly Day-to-day Growth or Decline of COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Comparing the numbers to the same day of last week, are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE:What's the overall change in the total?

Brackets []: These represent the total change for the day, including backlogged reports, if any.

• These numbers are inflated relative to the actual reports for the day, so they are not used to calculate the comparative percentage shifts.

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2/14: <Sunday>

• Cases: 28,261,470 (+64,506 | ΔW Change: ↓29.71% | Σ Increase: ↑0.23%)
• Deaths: 497,174 (+1,111 | ΔW Change: ↓20.93% | Σ Increase: ↑0.22%)

2/15: <M>

• Cases: 28,317,703 (+56,233 | ΔW Change: ↓36.98% | Σ Increase: ↑0.20%)
• Deaths: 498,203 (+1,029 | ΔW Change: ↓30.10% | Σ Increase: ↑0.21%)

2/16: <T>

• Cases: 28,381,220 (+63,517 | ΔW Change: ↓35.92% | Σ Increase: ↑0.22%)
• Deaths: 499,991 (+1,788 | ΔW Change: ↓46.90% | Σ Increase: ↑0.36%)

2/17: <W>

• Cases: 28,453,526 (+72,706 | ΔW Change: ↓25.40% | Σ Increase: ↑0.25%)
• Deaths: 502,544 (+2,553 | ΔW Change: ↓25.53% | Σ Increase: ↑0.51%)

2/18: <Þ>

• Cases: 28,523,524 (+69,998 | ΔW Change: ↓33.35% | Σ Increase: ↑0.25%)
• Deaths: 505,309 (+2,765 | ΔW Change: ↓25.71% | Σ Increase: ↑0.55%)

2/19: <F>

• Cases: 28,603,813 (+80,289 | ΔW Change: ↓11.05% | Σ Increase: ↑0.28%)
• Deaths: 507,746 (+2,437 | ΔW Change: ↓16.20% | Σ Increase: ↑0.48%)

2/20: <S>

• Cases: 28,706,473 (+69,617 [+102,660] | ΔW Change: ↓22.87% | Σ Increase: ↑0.36%)
• Deaths: 509,875 (+1,907 [+2,129] | ΔW Change: ↓16.07% | Σ Increase: ↑0.42%)

2/21: <Sunday>

• Cases: 28,765,423 (+58,950 | ΔW Change: ↓8.61% | Σ Increase: ↑0.21%)
• Deaths: 511,133 (+1,258 | ΔW Change: ↑13.23% | Σ Increase: ↑0.25%)

2/22 (Yesterday): <M>

• Cases: 28,826,307 (+60,884 | ΔW Change: ↑8.27% | Σ Increase: ↑0.21%)
• Deaths: 512,590 (+1,457 | ΔW Change: ↑41.59% | Σ Increase: ↑0.29%)

2/23 (Today): <T>

• Cases: 28,897,718 (+71,411 | ΔW Change: ↑12.43% | Σ Increase: ↑0.25%)
• Deaths: 514,996 (+2,406 | ΔW Change: ↑34.56% | Σ Increase: ↑0.47%)

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/jimsciutto/status/1364574303702962176

[It’s so Joever]

In other local news, students in JeffCo have found their spine.

https://www.cpr.org/2021/02/23/jeffco-gets-ready-to-return-to-in-person-school-but-some-students-say-no/

It’s damn time students rise up against being used as a political point for Polis to score.
We must push back against the risky conditions we are being forced into, and push back against the spineless teacher’s unions who sold out to the governor so they could skip the line (ahead of even those with not one, but two high risk conditions)

It’s only Karen parents who are trying to live their own lives through their high school children who want to force older kids back into a dangerous environment so they can compensate for their sad teenage years. I have seen this dynamic play out with peers, this is the truth. I applaud JeffCo students for taking a stand. Unlike our district, it seems JeffCo does offer a decent online option, so I hope they are allowed to switch to such if no changes in the current plan occur (we wouldn’t be)

Make no mistake, if the conditions are so dangerous that teachers need to be prioritized over cancer patients, forcing teenagers who are just as likely to contract and spread the virus is downright damning.

[BudgieForce]

https://twitter.com/jimsciutto/status/1364574303702962176

If I'm reading right, the J&J vaccine has a 65% efficiency rate but a 100% rate at preventing hospitalizations.

Honestly, it's not a bad trade off for just one shot. I'd probably prioritize Moderna and Pfizer for older and sicker people while giving the J&J vaccine to young and healthy individuals.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Virginia's death totals the last few days are still perplexing to me.
Each of the last five days, VA has recording deaths greater than any day before that.

In just those five days, our 7-day average deaths have risen from 18 to 104.

This is at the same time that cases continue to decline.  And I haven't been able to find any indication that these are some sort of backlog or a change in the way the state is counting deaths.

[soundchaser]

I'm not sure if this article by Dr. Julia Marcus has been posted here yet, but it crystalizes a lot of the feelings I've had about how the messaging re: vaccines has been totally mishandled. I hope in the next few weeks we'll have better guidance from the CDC, because telling people "do nothing differently" is not a way to drive vaccination rates up, even if it is the only 100% sure way of risk mitigation. (As Marcus points out, "trying to eliminate even the lowest-risk changes in behavior both underestimates people’s need to be close to one another and discourages the very thing that will get everyone out of this mess: vaccine uptake.")

Thoughts from anyone smarter than I? Am I misreading the whole situation?

[lfromnj]

I'm not sure if this article by Dr. Julia Marcus has been posted here yet, but it crystalizes a lot of the feelings I've had about how the messaging re: vaccines has been totally mishandled. I hope in the next few weeks we'll have better guidance from the CDC, because telling people "do nothing differently" is not a way to drive vaccination rates up, even if it is the only 100% sure way of risk mitigation. (As Marcus points out, "trying to eliminate even the lowest-risk changes in behavior both underestimates people’s need to be close to one another and discourages the very thing that will get everyone out of this mess: vaccine uptake.")

Thoughts from anyone smarter than I? Am I misreading the whole situation?

It hasn't been a serious problem yet, demand for vaccine still outstrips supply but it was extremely stupid to discourage the vaccine so much.

[BudgieForce]

I'm not sure if this article by Dr. Julia Marcus has been posted here yet, but it crystalizes a lot of the feelings I've had about how the messaging re: vaccines has been totally mishandled. I hope in the next few weeks we'll have better guidance from the CDC, because telling people "do nothing differently" is not a way to drive vaccination rates up, even if it is the only 100% sure way of risk mitigation. (As Marcus points out, "trying to eliminate even the lowest-risk changes in behavior both underestimates people’s need to be close to one another and discourages the very thing that will get everyone out of this mess: vaccine uptake.")

Thoughts from anyone smarter than I? Am I misreading the whole situation?

It hasn't been a serious problem yet, demand for vaccine still outstrips supply but it was extremely stupid to discourage the vaccine so much.

I get that being overly pessimistic isn't helpful but what?

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

I'm not sure if this article by Dr. Julia Marcus has been posted here yet, but it crystalizes a lot of the feelings I've had about how the messaging re: vaccines has been totally mishandled. I hope in the next few weeks we'll have better guidance from the CDC, because telling people "do nothing differently" is not a way to drive vaccination rates up, even if it is the only 100% sure way of risk mitigation. (As Marcus points out, "trying to eliminate even the lowest-risk changes in behavior both underestimates people’s need to be close to one another and discourages the very thing that will get everyone out of this mess: vaccine uptake.")

Thoughts from anyone smarter than I? Am I misreading the whole situation?

It hasn't been a serious problem yet, demand for vaccine still outstrips supply but it was extremely stupid to discourage the vaccine so much.

I get that being overly pessimistic isn't helpful but what?

They might be referring to the sensationalistic way the media trumpets every single side effect or post-vaccination infection in dark tones, without emphasizing just how rare these are.

[Calthrina950]

I'm not sure if this article by Dr. Julia Marcus has been posted here yet, but it crystalizes a lot of the feelings I've had about how the messaging re: vaccines has been totally mishandled. I hope in the next few weeks we'll have better guidance from the CDC, because telling people "do nothing differently" is not a way to drive vaccination rates up, even if it is the only 100% sure way of risk mitigation. (As Marcus points out, "trying to eliminate even the lowest-risk changes in behavior both underestimates people’s need to be close to one another and discourages the very thing that will get everyone out of this mess: vaccine uptake.")

Thoughts from anyone smarter than I? Am I misreading the whole situation?

It hasn't been a serious problem yet, demand for vaccine still outstrips supply but it was extremely stupid to discourage the vaccine so much.

I get that being overly pessimistic isn't helpful but what?

They might be referring to the sensationalistic way the media trumpets every single side effect or post-vaccination infection in dark tones, without emphasizing just how rare these are.

The media is the reason why I significantly cut back on watching television over the past year. The profit motive remains ever present, and the pandemic has provided them with additional opportunity to take advantage of things for their own benefit. I think media coverage has helped to contribute to many of the anxieties which people have had with regards to the pandemic, prevention measures, and the lockdowns.

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

Uhhhh...why all the red?

[BudgieForce]

Uhhhh...why all the red?

There was a lot going on last week that probably artificially lowered numbers.

[Skill and Chance]

Uhhhh...why all the red?

There was a lot going on last week that probably artificially lowered numbers.

The 2nd highest population state had virtually no reporting last week and unfortunately had near optimal conditions for a new outbreak at the same time (people crowding into whichever friend/relative's house still had power, no water to wash your hands for several days, etc.).

Once the Texas utilities situation is behind us, the 2 weeks after Easter will tell us whether the pandemic is truly ending or whether this is a trough between waves. 

[Progressive Pessimist]

I'm not sure if this article by Dr. Julia Marcus has been posted here yet, but it crystalizes a lot of the feelings I've had about how the messaging re: vaccines has been totally mishandled. I hope in the next few weeks we'll have better guidance from the CDC, because telling people "do nothing differently" is not a way to drive vaccination rates up, even if it is the only 100% sure way of risk mitigation. (As Marcus points out, "trying to eliminate even the lowest-risk changes in behavior both underestimates people’s need to be close to one another and discourages the very thing that will get everyone out of this mess: vaccine uptake.")

Thoughts from anyone smarter than I? Am I misreading the whole situation?

It hasn't been a serious problem yet, demand for vaccine still outstrips supply but it was extremely stupid to discourage the vaccine so much.

I get that being overly pessimistic isn't helpful but what?

They might be referring to the sensationalistic way the media trumpets every single side effect or post-vaccination infection in dark tones, without emphasizing just how rare these are.

Yeah, that was enough to help my sister go down the anti-vax rabbit-hole. Now that my 88 year old grandma got it without any sort of reaction, hopefully she'll change her mind now and get the vaccine when it's available.

[lfromnj]

I'm not sure if this article by Dr. Julia Marcus has been posted here yet, but it crystalizes a lot of the feelings I've had about how the messaging re: vaccines has been totally mishandled. I hope in the next few weeks we'll have better guidance from the CDC, because telling people "do nothing differently" is not a way to drive vaccination rates up, even if it is the only 100% sure way of risk mitigation. (As Marcus points out, "trying to eliminate even the lowest-risk changes in behavior both underestimates people’s need to be close to one another and discourages the very thing that will get everyone out of this mess: vaccine uptake.")

Thoughts from anyone smarter than I? Am I misreading the whole situation?

It hasn't been a serious problem yet, demand for vaccine still outstrips supply but it was extremely stupid to discourage the vaccine so much.

I get that being overly pessimistic isn't helpful but what?

They might be referring to the sensationalistic way the media trumpets every single side effect or post-vaccination infection in dark tones, without emphasizing just how rare these are.

Not just that but also just saying nothing will return to normal after the vaccine. 

[emailking]

Not just that but also just saying nothing will return to normal after the vaccine. 

The problem is we don't know when after the vaccine is. Everyone is saying things like 2022 will look at lot more like 2019 than 2020.

[soundchaser]

Not just that but also just saying nothing will return to normal after the vaccine. 

The problem is we don't know when after the vaccine is. Everyone is saying things like 2022 will look at lot more like 2019 than 2020.

Because the science behind the vaccine tells us it will! It may not look totally like 2019, but there’s nothing to suggest it won’t be better. We know the vaccine culls transmission (although by how much, we’re not sure), we know it’s good against the B variant based on the research out of Israel, and we know even one dose is more effective than we thought. I am sick of hearing nothing but doom-and-gloom coming from epidemiologists who think us incapable of nuance. Should we drop our masks immediately after one dose? Of course not. Is it ok to provide some optimism? I think you have to, or people are going to start to wonder if there’s even a point.

[emailking]

Yeah I think basically everyone is on board with that. It's the rest of this year where there's still some uncertainty. Because we don't know how long vaccinating will take and how bad the variants will be in the meantime.

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 2/24 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

ΔW Change: Comparisons of Weekly Day-to-day Growth or Decline of COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Comparing the numbers to the same day of last week, are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE:What's the overall change in the total?

Brackets []: These represent the total change for the day, including backlogged reports, if any.

• These numbers are inflated relative to the actual reports for the day, so they are not used to calculate the comparative percentage shifts.

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2/14: <Sunday>

• Cases: 28,261,470 (+64,506 | ΔW Change: ↓29.71% | Σ Increase: ↑0.23%)
• Deaths: 497,174 (+1,111 | ΔW Change: ↓20.93% | Σ Increase: ↑0.22%)

2/15: <M>

• Cases: 28,317,703 (+56,233 | ΔW Change: ↓36.98% | Σ Increase: ↑0.20%)
• Deaths: 498,203 (+1,029 | ΔW Change: ↓30.10% | Σ Increase: ↑0.21%)

2/16: <T>

• Cases: 28,381,220 (+63,517 | ΔW Change: ↓35.92% | Σ Increase: ↑0.22%)
• Deaths: 499,991 (+1,788 | ΔW Change: ↓46.90% | Σ Increase: ↑0.36%)

2/17: <W>

• Cases: 28,453,526 (+72,706 | ΔW Change: ↓25.40% | Σ Increase: ↑0.25%)
• Deaths: 502,544 (+2,553 | ΔW Change: ↓25.53% | Σ Increase: ↑0.51%)

2/18: <Þ>

• Cases: 28,523,524 (+69,998 | ΔW Change: ↓33.35% | Σ Increase: ↑0.25%)
• Deaths: 505,309 (+2,765 | ΔW Change: ↓25.71% | Σ Increase: ↑0.55%)

2/19: <F>

• Cases: 28,603,813 (+80,289 | ΔW Change: ↓11.05% | Σ Increase: ↑0.28%)
• Deaths: 507,746 (+2,437 | ΔW Change: ↓16.20% | Σ Increase: ↑0.48%)

2/20: <S>

• Cases: 28,706,473 (+69,617 [+102,660] | ΔW Change: ↓22.87% | Σ Increase: ↑0.36%)
• Deaths: 509,875 (+1,907 [+2,129] | ΔW Change: ↓16.07% | Σ Increase: ↑0.42%)

2/21: <Sunday>

• Cases: 28,765,423 (+58,950 | ΔW Change: ↓8.61% | Σ Increase: ↑0.21%)
• Deaths: 511,133 (+1,258 | ΔW Change: ↑13.23% | Σ Increase: ↑0.25%)

2/22: <M>

• Cases: 28,826,307 (+60,884 | ΔW Change: ↑8.27% | Σ Increase: ↑0.21%)
• Deaths: 512,590 (+1,457 | ΔW Change: ↑41.59% | Σ Increase: ↑0.29%)

2/23 (Yesterday): <T>

• Cases: 28,897,718 (+71,411 | ΔW Change: ↑12.43% | Σ Increase: ↑0.25%)
• Deaths: 514,996 (+2,406 | ΔW Change: ↑34.56% | Σ Increase: ↑0.47%)

2/24 (Today): <W>

• Cases: 28,974,623 (+76,905 | ΔW Change: ↑5.78% | Σ Increase: ↑0.27%)
• Deaths: 518,363 (+2,525 [3,367] | ΔW Change: ↓1.10% | Σ Increase: ↑0.65%)

[Green Line]

Give the government control to totally shut down your social life, keep you indoors, etc and good luck ever putting that back into its box.  Our freedoms are a lot more important than a virus with a 2% fataility rate.  Sorry, I said it.  I mean it.

A little under 1 year ago... and the only problem with this quote is that I WAY overestimated the IFR.

Hope ya'll don't take another year to wake up.  Won't wait up for you though.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Yeah I think basically everyone is on board with that. It's the rest of this year where there's still some uncertainty. Because we don't know how long vaccinating will take and how bad the variants will be in the meantime.

Why do you say we don’t know how long vaccinting will take.  We have contracts for 600 million doses by July from Moderna and Pfizer alone.  This seems like the pessimistic end point; the optimistic one is probably about two months earlier.

[emailking]

I don't know how long it will take. A contract isn't shots in arms. I'm fine with your estimates, but I don't know.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/jaketapper/status/1364927387578888193