COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 2/7 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

ΔW Change: Comparisons of Weekly Day-to-day Growth or Decline of COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Comparing the numbers to the same day of last week, are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

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1/31: <Sunday>

• Cases: 26,767,229 (+101,489 | ΔW Change: ↓25.01% | Σ Increase: ↑0.38%)
• Deaths: 452,279 (+1,898 | ΔW Change: ↑2.32% | Σ Increase: ↑0.42%)

2/1: <M>

• Cases: 26,911,375 (+144,146 | ΔW Change: ↓9.61% | Σ Increase: ↑0.54%)
• Deaths: 454,213 (+1,934 | ΔW Change: ↑1.68% | Σ Increase: ↑0.43%)

2/2: <T>

• Cases: 27,027,347 (+115,972 | ΔW Change: ↓22.49% | Σ Increase: ↑0.43%)
• Deaths: 457,856 (+3,643 | ΔW Change: ↓10.27% | Σ Increase: ↑0.80%)

2/3: <W>

• Cases: 27,150,457 (+123,110 | ΔW Change: ↓20.56% | Σ Increase: ↑0.46%)
• Deaths: 461,930 (+4,074 | ΔW Change: ↑0.22% | Σ Increase: ↑0.77%)

2/4: <Þ>

• Cases: 27,273,890 (+123,433 | ΔW Change: ↓28.41% | Σ Increase: ↑0.45%)
• Deaths: 466,988 (+5,058 | ΔW Change: ↑18.96% | Σ Increase: ↑1.09%)

2/5: <F>

• Cases: 27,407,324 (+133.434 | ΔW Change: ↓23.13% | Σ Increase: ↑0.49%)
• Deaths: 470,705 (+3,417 | ΔW Change: ↓7.40% | Σ Increase: ↑0.80%)

2/6 (Yesterday): <S>

• Cases: 27,519,636 (+112,312 | ΔW Change: ↓26.86% | Σ Increase: ↑0.41%)
• Deaths: 473,528 (+2,823 | ΔW Change: ↓3.39% | Σ Increase: ↑0.60%)

2/7 (Today): <Sunday>

• Cases: 27,611,403 (+91,767 | ΔW Change: ↓9.58% | Σ Increase: ↑0.33%)
• Deaths: 474,933 (+1,405 | ΔW Change: ↓25.97% | Σ Increase: ↑0.30%)

[Aliens]

The state of Illinois has only a 2.5% positivity rate today despite gradually lifting restrictions over the past few weeks. Hopefully we'll be back to normal soon.

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 2/6 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

ΔW Change: Comparisons of Weekly Day-to-day Growth or Decline of COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Comparing the numbers to the same day of last week, are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

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1/31: <Sunday>

• Cases: 26,767,229 (+101,489 | ΔW Change: ↓25.01% | Σ Increase: ↑0.38%)
• Deaths: 452,279 (+1,898 | ΔW Change: ↑2.32% | Σ Increase: ↑0.42%)

2/1: <M>

• Cases: 26,911,375 (+144,146 | ΔW Change: ↓9.61% | Σ Increase: ↑0.54%)
• Deaths: 454,213 (+1,934 | ΔW Change: ↑1.68% | Σ Increase: ↑0.43%)

2/2: <T>

• Cases: 27,027,347 (+115,972 | ΔW Change: ↓22.49% | Σ Increase: ↑0.43%)
• Deaths: 457,856 (+3,643 | ΔW Change: ↓10.27% | Σ Increase: ↑0.80%)

2/3: <W>

• Cases: 27,150,457 (+123,110 | ΔW Change: ↓20.56% | Σ Increase: ↑0.46%)
• Deaths: 461,930 (+4,074 | ΔW Change: ↑0.22% | Σ Increase: ↑0.77%)

2/4: <Þ>

• Cases: 27,273,890 (+123,433 | ΔW Change: ↓28.41% | Σ Increase: ↑0.45%)
• Deaths: 466,988 (+5,058 | ΔW Change: ↑18.96% | Σ Increase: ↑1.09%)

2/5: <F>

• Cases: 27,407,324 (+133.434 | ΔW Change: ↓23.13% | Σ Increase: ↑0.49%)
• Deaths: 470,705 (+3,417 | ΔW Change: ↓7.40% | Σ Increase: ↑0.80%)

2/6 (Yesterday): <S>

• Cases: 27,519,636 (+112,312 | ΔW Change: ↓26.86% | Σ Increase: ↑0.41%)
• Deaths: 473,528 (+2,823 | ΔW Change: ↓3.39% | Σ Increase: ↑0.60%)

2/7 (Today): <Sunday>

• Cases: 27,611,403 (+91,767 | ΔW Change: ↓9.58% | Σ Increase: ↑0.33%)
• Deaths: 474,933 (+1,405 | ΔW Change: ↓25.97% | Σ Increase: ↑0.30%)

Oooh 91,000+ new cases. Lowest number of new cases yet.  Hopefully the vaccines are starting to kick in.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

https://scitechdaily.com/most-americans-say-theyll-continue-health-precautions-after-the-covid-19-pandemic/

A new national survey of more than 2,000 Americans by The Ohio State University Wexner Medical Center finds most plan to continue many of the pandemic precautions in the name of public health, even when the pandemic is over.



The survey found that nearly three-quarters (72%) of Americans plan to continue to wear masks in public, four out of five (80%) will still avoid crowds and 90% plan to keep up frequent handwashing and sanitizer use after COVID-19. Gonsenhauser says it’s encouraging that people are willing to continue these practices and that this year’s flu season is proof of their effectiveness.

Somehow I really doubt this. But let's entertain this for a moment, if this was true, this means the end of conventions and large gatherings

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

https://scitechdaily.com/most-americans-say-theyll-continue-health-precautions-after-the-covid-19-pandemic/

A new national survey of more than 2,000 Americans by The Ohio State University Wexner Medical Center finds most plan to continue many of the pandemic precautions in the name of public health, even when the pandemic is over.



The survey found that nearly three-quarters (72%) of Americans plan to continue to wear masks in public, four out of five (80%) will still avoid crowds and 90% plan to keep up frequent handwashing and sanitizer use after COVID-19. Gonsenhauser says it’s encouraging that people are willing to continue these practices and that this year’s flu season is proof of their effectiveness.

Somehow I really doubt this. But let's entertain this for a moment, if this was true, this means the end of conventions and large gatherings

It means the end of every business that requires crowds, including sporting events, theme parks, movie theaters, cruises, and concerts. None of those can survive with only 20% of the public willing to even consider attending them. If it's true, and I seriously doubt it, it means that the minds of Americans have been fundamentally broken by this trauma and there likely is no coming back for this country.

[Stranger in a strange land]

https://scitechdaily.com/most-americans-say-theyll-continue-health-precautions-after-the-covid-19-pandemic/

A new national survey of more than 2,000 Americans by The Ohio State University Wexner Medical Center finds most plan to continue many of the pandemic precautions in the name of public health, even when the pandemic is over.



The survey found that nearly three-quarters (72%) of Americans plan to continue to wear masks in public, four out of five (80%) will still avoid crowds and 90% plan to keep up frequent handwashing and sanitizer use after COVID-19. Gonsenhauser says it’s encouraging that people are willing to continue these practices and that this year’s flu season is proof of their effectiveness.

Somehow I really doubt this. But let's entertain this for a moment, if this was true, this means the end of conventions and large gatherings

It means the end of every business that requires crowds, including sporting events, theme parks, movie theaters, cruises, and concerts. None of those can survive with only 20% of the public willing to even consider attending them. If it's true, and I seriously doubt it, it means that the minds of Americans have been fundamentally broken by this trauma and there likely is no coming back for this country.

Things will gradually return to normal, just like they did after the 1918 Pandemic, it'll just take several years for things like sporting events and concerts to reach pre-pandemic levels.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

https://scitechdaily.com/most-americans-say-theyll-continue-health-precautions-after-the-covid-19-pandemic/

A new national survey of more than 2,000 Americans by The Ohio State University Wexner Medical Center finds most plan to continue many of the pandemic precautions in the name of public health, even when the pandemic is over.



The survey found that nearly three-quarters (72%) of Americans plan to continue to wear masks in public, four out of five (80%) will still avoid crowds and 90% plan to keep up frequent handwashing and sanitizer use after COVID-19. Gonsenhauser says it’s encouraging that people are willing to continue these practices and that this year’s flu season is proof of their effectiveness.

Somehow I really doubt this. But let's entertain this for a moment, if this was true, this means the end of conventions and large gatherings

It means the end of every business that requires crowds, including sporting events, theme parks, movie theaters, cruises, and concerts. None of those can survive with only 20% of the public willing to even consider attending them. If it's true, and I seriously doubt it, it means that the minds of Americans have been fundamentally broken by this trauma and there likely is no coming back for this country.

There's no way that poll is even close to true as it is being presented.  Way more than 20% of people were already doing almost nothing to avoid crowds when the pandemic was at its peak.

I know I for one will be going to as many concerts, theaters, casinos, conventions, etc. that I possibly can as soon as I am fully vaccinated.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

According to this article (preprinted in Nature), the Pfizer vaccine should work almost as well against the South African variant as it does against the original strain, based on observed immune response to several engineered versions of the virus:

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-021-01270-4

[It’s so Joever]

According to this article (preprinted in Nature), the Pfizer vaccine should work almost as well against the South African variant as it does against the original strain, based on observed immune response to several engineered versions of the virus:

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-021-01270-4

That’s good to hear. Pfizer vaccine does trigger a heavy response, so maybe even a decrease in reaction will still be enough to **** the virus.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

https://scitechdaily.com/most-americans-say-theyll-continue-health-precautions-after-the-covid-19-pandemic/

A new national survey of more than 2,000 Americans by The Ohio State University Wexner Medical Center finds most plan to continue many of the pandemic precautions in the name of public health, even when the pandemic is over.



The survey found that nearly three-quarters (72%) of Americans plan to continue to wear masks in public, four out of five (80%) will still avoid crowds and 90% plan to keep up frequent handwashing and sanitizer use after COVID-19. Gonsenhauser says it’s encouraging that people are willing to continue these practices and that this year’s flu season is proof of their effectiveness.

Somehow I really doubt this. But let's entertain this for a moment, if this was true, this means the end of conventions and large gatherings

It means the end of every business that requires crowds, including sporting events, theme parks, movie theaters, cruises, and concerts. None of those can survive with only 20% of the public willing to even consider attending them. If it's true, and I seriously doubt it, it means that the minds of Americans have been fundamentally broken by this trauma and there likely is no coming back for this country.

There's no way that poll is even close to true as it is being presented.  Way more than 20% of people were already doing almost nothing to avoid crowds when the pandemic was at its peak.

I know I for one will be going to as many concerts, theaters, casinos, conventions, etc. that I possibly can as soon as I am fully vaccinated.

That's what I'm thinking/hoping. If that poll is remotely accurate, it's horrible news for the long-term health of this country and I'm really wondering how the hell they got those results. If it's bad methodology, DEEPLY irresponsible to release it like this.

I do think casual mask-wearing will continue long-term, and that might be a good thing. I doubt many places will continue to have mandates, but some people will feel safer that way.

[ilikeverin]

https://scitechdaily.com/most-americans-say-theyll-continue-health-precautions-after-the-covid-19-pandemic/

A new national survey of more than 2,000 Americans by The Ohio State University Wexner Medical Center finds most plan to continue many of the pandemic precautions in the name of public health, even when the pandemic is over.



The survey found that nearly three-quarters (72%) of Americans plan to continue to wear masks in public, four out of five (80%) will still avoid crowds and 90% plan to keep up frequent handwashing and sanitizer use after COVID-19. Gonsenhauser says it’s encouraging that people are willing to continue these practices and that this year’s flu season is proof of their effectiveness.

Somehow I really doubt this. But let's entertain this for a moment, if this was true, this means the end of conventions and large gatherings

lol. This is absolutely not happening. I'd love to see the wording of the poll questions.

[ꙮ]

https://scitechdaily.com/most-americans-say-theyll-continue-health-precautions-after-the-covid-19-pandemic/

A new national survey of more than 2,000 Americans by The Ohio State University Wexner Medical Center finds most plan to continue many of the pandemic precautions in the name of public health, even when the pandemic is over.



The survey found that nearly three-quarters (72%) of Americans plan to continue to wear masks in public, four out of five (80%) will still avoid crowds and 90% plan to keep up frequent handwashing and sanitizer use after COVID-19. Gonsenhauser says it’s encouraging that people are willing to continue these practices and that this year’s flu season is proof of their effectiveness.

Somehow I really doubt this. But let's entertain this for a moment, if this was true, this means the end of conventions and large gatherings

I also doubt it. I've followed the rules and worn my mask because I know its the best thing for stopping the pandemic, but as soon as this sh**t is over I'm burning my masks and jumping into a crowd. I know many other people feel the same way.

Also who the hell are the 10% of people who won't wash their hands without a pandemic? Disgusting.

[emailking]

A poll is a poll. If they think they messed it up they can redo it or reweight or something, but if they think the methodology is sound then you release. You don't hold it back because the results are depressing.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

A poll is a poll. If they think they messed it up they can redo it or reweight or something, but if they think the methodology is sound then you release. You don't hold it back because the results are depressing.

It is really accurate to say they released it?  I can't find any details at all about this poll, such as question wording or methodological details.  I found a link for downloads associated with the poll, but it is just press releases and sound bites.  Why is a medical center even doing a poll?

[emailking]

Maybe not, I didn't dig into those details. It could have been for their own benefit and survey might be a better term than poll in this case.

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 2/8 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

ΔW Change: Comparisons of Weekly Day-to-day Growth or Decline of COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Comparing the numbers to the same day of last week, are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

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1/31: <Sunday>

• Cases: 26,767,229 (+101,489 | ΔW Change: ↓25.01% | Σ Increase: ↑0.38%)
• Deaths: 452,279 (+1,898 | ΔW Change: ↑2.32% | Σ Increase: ↑0.42%)

2/1: <M>

• Cases: 26,911,375 (+144,146 | ΔW Change: ↓9.61% | Σ Increase: ↑0.54%)
• Deaths: 454,213 (+1,934 | ΔW Change: ↑1.68% | Σ Increase: ↑0.43%)

2/2: <T>

• Cases: 27,027,347 (+115,972 | ΔW Change: ↓22.49% | Σ Increase: ↑0.43%)
• Deaths: 457,856 (+3,643 | ΔW Change: ↓10.27% | Σ Increase: ↑0.80%)

2/3: <W>

• Cases: 27,150,457 (+123,110 | ΔW Change: ↓20.56% | Σ Increase: ↑0.46%)
• Deaths: 461,930 (+4,074 | ΔW Change: ↑0.22% | Σ Increase: ↑0.77%)

2/4: <Þ>

• Cases: 27,273,890 (+123,433 | ΔW Change: ↓28.41% | Σ Increase: ↑0.45%)
• Deaths: 466,988 (+5,058 | ΔW Change: ↑18.96% | Σ Increase: ↑1.09%)

2/5: <F>

• Cases: 27,407,324 (+133.434 | ΔW Change: ↓23.13% | Σ Increase: ↑0.49%)
• Deaths: 470,705 (+3,417 | ΔW Change: ↓7.40% | Σ Increase: ↑0.80%)

2/6: <S>

• Cases: 27,519,636 (+112,312 | ΔW Change: ↓26.86% | Σ Increase: ↑0.41%)
• Deaths: 473,528 (+2,823 | ΔW Change: ↓3.39% | Σ Increase: ↑0.60%)

2/7 (Yesterday): <Sunday>

• Cases: 27,611,403 (+91,767 | ΔW Change: ↓9.58% | Σ Increase: ↑0.33%)
• Deaths: 474,933 (+1,405 | ΔW Change: ↓25.97% | Σ Increase: ↑0.30%)

2/8 (Today): <M>

• Cases: 27,700,629 (+89,226 | ΔW Change: ↓38.10% | Σ Increase: ↑0.32%)
• Deaths: 476,405 (+1,472 | ΔW Change: ↓23.89% | Σ Increase: ↑0.31%)

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/isaacstanbecker/status/1359184376563720193

[Lief 🗽]

https://twitter.com/isaacstanbecker/status/1359184376563720193

Thank you President Biden!!

[It’s so Joever]

42.4 million vaccine doses have been delivered in the US.
9.51 million people are now completely vaccinated.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

So, when can we expect cases/deaths to drop to a level we can probably start safely holding in person indoor events again?

[Canis]

So, when can we expect cases/deaths to drop to a level we can probably start safely holding in person indoor events again?

Probably either in May or June or possibly never again depending on the COVID variants and the voracity of their spread.

According to the Bloomberg vaccine tracker if we keep vaccinating at the same rate we are now ( which is unlikely it will probably continue to increase) we'll hit 75% completely vaccinated in early December which will be enough for stuff to go to relative normality according to Fauci.
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/
We're currently giving 1.4 million vaccine doses a day. The goal according to, Fauci is to get it to about 2 to 2.5 million a day which would considerably speed it up but probably still wouldn't be till Late October early to mid-November.
Once we hit around like 55 to 60% vaccinated we'll have enough for a low amount of herd immunity and that will probably be in July or August is when we hit most things will be able to open up but people will still likely have to wear masks and social distance. But as Matt Rose said if stuff with the variants gets worse it will be delayed until the third booster shot is available to be distributed.
I'm really hopeful about the way things are looking I know we still got several months ahead of us but the light is at the end of the tunnel. My mom just got vaccinated last week and since I'm back to work I'm in the next tier of people who can be vaccinated so I should get my shot late this month or early March.

[MATTROSE94]

So, when can we expect cases/deaths to drop to a level we can probably start safely holding in person indoor events again?

Probably either in May or June or possibly never again depending on the COVID variants and the voracity of their spread.

According to the Bloomberg vaccine tracker if we keep vaccinating at the same rate we are now ( which is unlikely it will probably continue to increase) we'll hit 75% completely vaccinated in early December which will be enough for stuff to go to relative normality according to Fauci.
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/
We're currently giving 1.4 million vaccine doses a day the goal according to Fauci is to get it to about 2 to 2.5 million a day which would considerably speed it up but probably still won't be till Late October early to mid-November.
Once we hit around like 55 to 60% vaccinated we'll have enough for a low amount of herd immunity and that will probably be in July or August is when we hit most things will be able to open up but people will still likely have to wear masks and social distance. But as Matt Rose said if stuff with the variants gets worse it will be delayed until the third booster shot is available to be distributed.
I'm really hopeful about the way things are looking I know we still got several months ahead of us but the light is at the end of the tunnel. My mom just got vaccinated last week and since I'm back to work I'm in the next tier of people who can be vaccinated so I should get my shot late this month or early March.

I agree 100% with your post. I am part of the 1C group in New Jersey (I work in the legal field and have some minor comorbidities such as Gastroesophageal reflux disease), so I should be able to get the vaccine in April or May. The good news is that the South African variant is not expected to gain much of a foothold in the US for at least a while and the UK variant seems to respond well to the vaccines we already have.  Reinfections might become an issue however, as I read that people who are reinfected with COVID have a higher mortality rate.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

As we have seen in Iowa, some states are completely opening things up already.  And there's going to be huge political pressure to open up everywhere in about two months once we have completed Phase 1 and all vulnerable people and essential workers have had the opportunity to be vaccinated.  At that point, deaths will likely drop to less than 10% of what we are seeing now, and there will really be no reason not to open up at least among people who have been vaccinated.

Fauci said on Meet the Press on Sunday that once J&J is approved, he expects vaccine supply will be able to fully meet demand by April.  And we have contracts to supply enough doses of Pfizer and Moderna alone to vaccinate 300 million people (more than the age 12+ population of the US) by July.

[MATTROSE94]

As we have seen in Iowa, some states are completely opening things up already.  And there's going to be huge political pressure to open up everywhere in about two months once we have completed Phase 1 and all vulnerable people and essential workers have had the opportunity to be vaccinated.  At that point, deaths will likely drop to less than 10% of what we are seeing now, and there will really be no reason not to open up at least among people who have been vaccinated.

Fauci said on Meet the Press on Sunday that once J&J is approved, he expects vaccine supply will be able to fully meet demand by April.  And we have contracts to supply enough doses of Pfizer and Moderna alone to vaccinate 300 million people (more than the age 12+ population of the US) by July.

I am thinking that a lot of the governors in the South and Mountian west will probably start to open up in March, though governors such as Phil Murphy, Andrew Cuomo, Larry Hogan, Phil Scott, Charlie Baker, J. B. Pritzker, Gretchen Whitmer, and Gavin Newsome might delay large-scale reopenings until July or August if I had to guess. They might even delay some reopenings until early 2022 as well depending on the voracity of the COVID variants.

[Person Man]

To be honest, I’d be OK opening up if we are consistently below 10k new cases nationally. I mean, we’ve done all we can at this point.