COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron

[DINGO Joe]

On Jan 11, the 7-day average for new cases was 255k. One month later, there's a real chance of it being below 100k. That's crazy.

Well, actually it's science.

[DINGO Joe]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 2/11 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

ΔW Change: Comparisons of Weekly Day-to-day Growth or Decline of COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Comparing the numbers to the same day of last week, are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

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1/31: <Sunday>

• Cases: 26,767,229 (+101,489 | ΔW Change: ↓25.01% | Σ Increase: ↑0.38%)
• Deaths: 452,279 (+1,898 | ΔW Change: ↑2.32% | Σ Increase: ↑0.42%)

2/1: <M>

• Cases: 26,911,375 (+144,146 | ΔW Change: ↓9.61% | Σ Increase: ↑0.54%)
• Deaths: 454,213 (+1,934 | ΔW Change: ↑1.68% | Σ Increase: ↑0.43%)

2/2: <T>

• Cases: 27,027,347 (+115,972 | ΔW Change: ↓22.49% | Σ Increase: ↑0.43%)
• Deaths: 457,856 (+3,643 | ΔW Change: ↓10.27% | Σ Increase: ↑0.80%)

2/3: <W>

• Cases: 27,150,457 (+123,110 | ΔW Change: ↓20.56% | Σ Increase: ↑0.46%)
• Deaths: 461,930 (+4,074 | ΔW Change: ↑0.22% | Σ Increase: ↑0.77%)

2/4: <Þ>

• Cases: 27,273,890 (+123,433 | ΔW Change: ↓28.41% | Σ Increase: ↑0.45%)
• Deaths: 466,988 (+5,058 | ΔW Change: ↑18.96% | Σ Increase: ↑1.09%)

2/5: <F>

• Cases: 27,407,324 (+133,434 | ΔW Change: ↓23.13% | Σ Increase: ↑0.49%)
• Deaths: 470,705 (+3,417 | ΔW Change: ↓7.40% | Σ Increase: ↑0.80%)

2/6: <S>

• Cases: 27,519,636 (+112,312 | ΔW Change: ↓26.86% | Σ Increase: ↑0.41%)
• Deaths: 473,528 (+2,823 | ΔW Change: ↓3.39% | Σ Increase: ↑0.60%)

2/7: <Sunday>

• Cases: 27,611,403 (+91,767 | ΔW Change: ↓9.58% | Σ Increase: ↑0.33%)
• Deaths: 474,933 (+1,405 | ΔW Change: ↓25.97% | Σ Increase: ↑0.30%)

2/8: <M>

• Cases: 27,700,629 (+89,226 | ΔW Change: ↓38.10% | Σ Increase: ↑0.32%)
• Deaths: 476,405 (+1,472 | ΔW Change: ↓23.89% | Σ Increase: ↑0.31%)

2/9: <T>

• Cases: 27,799,756 (+99,127 | ΔW Change: ↓14.53% | Σ Increase: ↑0.36%)
• Deaths: 479,772 (+3,367 | ΔW Change: ↓7.58% | Σ Increase: ↑0.71%)

2/10 (Yesterday): <W>

• Cases: 27,897,214 (+97,458 | ΔW Change: ↓20.84% | Σ Increase: ↑0.35%)
• Deaths: 483,200 (+3,428 | ΔW Change: ↓15.86% | Σ Increase: ↑0.71%)

2/11 (Today): <Þ>

• Cases: 28,002,240 (+105,026 | ΔW Change: ↓14.91% | Σ Increase: ↑0.38%)
• Deaths: 486,922 (+3,722 | ΔW Change: ↓26.41% | Σ Increase: ↑0.77%)

Today's big backlogger was Ohio with 721 reported COVID deaths.

[DINGO Joe]

Huge backlog, I imagine. This makes me wonder just how many backlogged casualties there are.

Edit: I put the full total in brackets, and the actual casualties reported today outside of the brackets.

It was Ohio again, with like another 2500 added from Nov and Dec because they made a boo-boo

[DINGO Joe]

Huge backlog, I imagine. This makes me wonder just how many backlogged casualties there are.

Edit: I put the full total in brackets, and the actual casualties reported today outside of the brackets.

The CDC does provide data on total deaths reported and cause of death. though both are subject to later updates, obviously counting deaths is easier than cause of death.  Anyway, they're to the point that almost all 2020 deaths have been reported and that number will fall between 3,350,000 to 3,375,000.  The total number of death for 2019 was 2,855,000 so an increase of 500,000 deaths over 2019 is a fairly accurate estimate.  Now deaths do increase each year naturally as the boomers age and pass away though they haven't reached their peak death years yet.  Deaths increased 16,000 from 2018-19 and 26,000 from 2017-18 and 59,000 from 2016-2017.  I'm gonna say that deaths would have increase 45,000 in 2020 without COVID cause I like round numbers.  So, that would make COVID deaths account for an additional 450,000 to 475,000 I guess possibly higher if you include deaths of those who may have died anyway because of age/other conditions but also had COVID. 

If you include the first 6 weeks of this year, I'd guess the most back of the envelope estimate of total COVID deaths would be 550,000

The CDC dashboard is here

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/COVID19/index.htm

Table 1 has total death info

[DINGO Joe]

I expect the weather with create an even bigger mini-crash in numbers later this week.  Unfortunately a crash in vaccinations too.

[DINGO Joe]

+40 hours. I feel fine after first Pfizer shot.

Yeah, same here.  Really didn't impact me at all.

[DINGO Joe]

While many Trump appointees are having trouble finding work in the real world, Dr. Redfield has landed on his uh feet or ass

https://twitter.com/KristenhCNN/status/1381625939940024326

[DINGO Joe]

Has anyone seen an explanation for how Gibraltar has apparently vaccinated 105% of their total population?

Apparently, half of the workforce are Spanish commuters who are eligible to get vaccinated in Gibraltar.

[DINGO Joe]

New Hampshire becomes the 24th state without a mask mandate, effective tomorrow.

Actually, if Louisiana, Kentucky, and West Virginia were to repeal theirs, it would kind of look like a passable election map.  New Hampshire voting to the right of Ohio and North Carolina would be a little odd, but it would be in the theoretical range of possibilities.

There is a definite correlation between the election and vaccination pace.

https://apnews.com/article/joe-biden-donald-trump-alabama-georgia-savannah-941ef2bf9b60ee39d6b9fd5e2ce861f7

[DINGO Joe]

Wordometer has it at 43,174 with 310 deaths. Where are you getting those numbers?

Well, they're both right.  States are prone to make corrections up and down (mostly up, but errors are made both ways when trying to report in near time).

[DINGO Joe]

Local turd and COVID denier gets the "Chinese sh**t" thinks he's gonna die

Ted Nugent has caught COVID-19 after calling it “not a real pandemic”

[DINGO Joe]

I saw someone at work who started in the last year and had actually never seen without a mask until the last week and had to do a double take because they just didn't look quite like I thought they would.  It was actually a little disconcerting.

[DINGO Joe]

Glad about the trends, but given how far off the rails things have gotten in India and Brazil wouldn't be surprised to see one more modest wave to work it way through the US.

[DINGO Joe]

Cases in India look like they might be levelling off. Still terrible but maybe it stays under 400k/day. Deaths are still on a steep upclimb though, I guess because of the lag.

It's slowing but bad call, they broke 400k.

Of course, since India has such a weak public medicine infrastructure and weak leader, who knows what the actual number is....2......3.....5X? the reported number.

[DINGO Joe]

https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1389070256480550917

[DINGO Joe]

Obviously not the US but a cool story of a couple of statheads cracking the gap between reported COVID deaths in Mexico City and excess deaths

https://twitter.com/washingtonpost/status/1389192319052746760

[DINGO Joe]

In 90 days time, Brazil will take the title of highest mortality from the USA.

In 45 days time, India will take the title of highest case numbers from the USA.

They already have, they just don't have the public health structure (and central govt) to make things "official" and really India already holds both.

[DINGO Joe]

Most schools are partially open at least, stop concern trolling.

Our schools and colleges are in ruins, except in a few very rural areas.

You don't really strike me as an expert on the American educational systems.

[DINGO Joe]

https://twitter.com/EricFisherSBG/status/1389971982100402179

Clever idea.

Let's say a Mets fan just keeps getting the shot over and over again so that they don't have to pay for a ticket, will then end up looking like this?

[DINGO Joe]

I finally received my J&J this morning. I feel fine for the most part after a relatively long, but sorely needed nap.

Should change your name to OneJ&J

[DINGO Joe]

So anyway, my 78 yr old in-laws still haven't gotten the vaccine because they are living the life of backwoods Alabama crackers.  My father-in-law is coming to New Orleans in about 10 days for a trade show at the convention center which also happens to have one of these FEMA run vaccination centers going.  So, my wife and one of her siblings are cooking up a scheme to get Daddy vaccinated while Libby is back in Alabama.  I expect to be like a modern day version of the Lucy show.

[DINGO Joe]

"India recorded more than 750,000 new cases over the weekend".

Don't open link if you are eating breakfast.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-05-11/covid-india-who-bodies-wash-up-on-banks-of-ganges-river/100130032

New Indian strain may be on the way.

Yeah, the field of pyres are bad enough but it turns out things can be worse.

Here's a BBC article about Indian press trying to figure out the extent of India's undercount.  Spoiler alert....it's huge

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-56969086

[DINGO Joe]

More inoculations
far fewer infections
not so many deaths

So simple
Who could argue?
Oh yeah

[DINGO Joe]

Anyone else notice a difference between working-class areas and rich areas on masks?

I'm in a blue-collar urban area, and masks never really caught on. Even at Kroger, people bop around without masks. I've been to small towns and rural counties on roadtrips where masks are even less common.

But in a rich suburb just a few miles away from here, everyone wears a mask. You'll see some 6-year-old entering a restaurant wearing a mask.

I haven't been outside a metro since this all started and compliance has been very high both in the city and suburbs with the exceptions of some bars.  As for what goes on in rural America right now, I couldn't tell you.

[DINGO Joe]

I still carry a mask and put it on when using a public restroom.  Greatest discovery ever.