COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron

[MATTROSE94]

To be honest, I’d be OK opening up if we are consistently below 10k new cases nationally. I mean, we’ve done all we can at this point.

It would probably be 5,000 cases per day for me. 10,000 cases per day I would still keep some restrictions in place such as 75% or 80% capacity restrictions.

[Hammy]

To be honest, I’d be OK opening up if we are consistently below 10k new cases nationally. I mean, we’ve done all we can at this point.

Most of the measures aren't even being enforced. Masks required in stores, but don't bother turning people away. Places with mask mandates in public, half the people ignore them and nothing happens.

That's pretty far from "doing all we can do".

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Mask Mandates are enforced and respected in MN, so I don't have a problem with reopening what remains closed. Maybe don't hold a full capacity baseball game or theater performance, but everything else can honestly open, though businesses should not force people off of WFH if they do not feel safe or wearing a mask would complicate their work in some way.

[It’s so Joever]

To be honest, I’d be OK opening up if we are consistently below 10k new cases nationally. I mean, we’ve done all we can at this point.

It would probably be 5,000 cases per day for me. 10,000 cases per day I would still keep some restrictions in place such as 75% or 80% capacity restrictions.

10k cases honestly seems like a good guideline at this point given our expanded testing capacity, obviously it should depend on locality for anything.

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 2/9 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

ΔW Change: Comparisons of Weekly Day-to-day Growth or Decline of COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Comparing the numbers to the same day of last week, are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

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1/31: <Sunday>

• Cases: 26,767,229 (+101,489 | ΔW Change: ↓25.01% | Σ Increase: ↑0.38%)
• Deaths: 452,279 (+1,898 | ΔW Change: ↑2.32% | Σ Increase: ↑0.42%)

2/1: <M>

• Cases: 26,911,375 (+144,146 | ΔW Change: ↓9.61% | Σ Increase: ↑0.54%)
• Deaths: 454,213 (+1,934 | ΔW Change: ↑1.68% | Σ Increase: ↑0.43%)

2/2: <T>

• Cases: 27,027,347 (+115,972 | ΔW Change: ↓22.49% | Σ Increase: ↑0.43%)
• Deaths: 457,856 (+3,643 | ΔW Change: ↓10.27% | Σ Increase: ↑0.80%)

2/3: <W>

• Cases: 27,150,457 (+123,110 | ΔW Change: ↓20.56% | Σ Increase: ↑0.46%)
• Deaths: 461,930 (+4,074 | ΔW Change: ↑0.22% | Σ Increase: ↑0.77%)

2/4: <Þ>

• Cases: 27,273,890 (+123,433 | ΔW Change: ↓28.41% | Σ Increase: ↑0.45%)
• Deaths: 466,988 (+5,058 | ΔW Change: ↑18.96% | Σ Increase: ↑1.09%)

2/5: <F>

• Cases: 27,407,324 (+133.434 | ΔW Change: ↓23.13% | Σ Increase: ↑0.49%)
• Deaths: 470,705 (+3,417 | ΔW Change: ↓7.40% | Σ Increase: ↑0.80%)

2/6: <S>

• Cases: 27,519,636 (+112,312 | ΔW Change: ↓26.86% | Σ Increase: ↑0.41%)
• Deaths: 473,528 (+2,823 | ΔW Change: ↓3.39% | Σ Increase: ↑0.60%)

2/7: <Sunday>

• Cases: 27,611,403 (+91,767 | ΔW Change: ↓9.58% | Σ Increase: ↑0.33%)
• Deaths: 474,933 (+1,405 | ΔW Change: ↓25.97% | Σ Increase: ↑0.30%)

2/8 (Yesterday): <M>

• Cases: 27,700,629 (+89,226 | ΔW Change: ↓38.10% | Σ Increase: ↑0.32%)
• Deaths: 476,405 (+1,472 | ΔW Change: ↓23.89% | Σ Increase: ↑0.31%)

2/9 (Today): <T>

• Cases: 27,799,756 (+99,127 | ΔW Change: ↓14.53% | Σ Increase: ↑0.36%)
• Deaths: 479,772 (+3,367 | ΔW Change: ↓7.58% | Σ Increase: ↑0.71%)

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

To be honest, I’d be OK opening up if we are consistently below 10k new cases nationally. I mean, we’ve done all we can at this point.

It would probably be 5,000 cases per day for me. 10,000 cases per day I would still keep some restrictions in place such as 75% or 80% capacity restrictions.

I’d love to see everywhere limited to 75%-80% capacity permanently regardless of any health considerations.

[icemanj]

On Jan 11, the 7-day average for new cases was 255k. One month later, there's a real chance of it being below 100k. That's crazy.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

It's really amazing how much more f-cked our vaccine situation is here in Canada compared to you folks. Vaccine distribution is the defining issue of our day right now, and Trudeau's head is going to be on the chopping block whether it's fair or not.

[jimrtex]

https://twitter.com/isaacstanbecker/status/1359184376563720193

Thank you President Biden!!

This is likely irrelevant.

Second doses are lagging first doses by between 24 and 27 days, just what you would expect given that the minimum delay is 21 or 28 days. Some persons won't get the second dose precisely 21 or 28 days after the first, but that doesn't mean that they won't.

The only reason it would change would be if the Biden administration if falling down on record keeping.

[DINGO Joe]

On Jan 11, the 7-day average for new cases was 255k. One month later, there's a real chance of it being below 100k. That's crazy.

Well, actually it's science.

[icemanj]

On Jan 11, the 7-day average for new cases was 255k. One month later, there's a real chance of it being below 100k. That's crazy.

Well, actually it's science.

True. The way things were looking though, I didn't think it would decrease that fast.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

We should be 80% back to normal by April and a 100% back to normal by July

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

According the new British data, a single dose of the Pfizer vaccine is 79-84% effective.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2021/02/10/coronavirus-covid-live-updates-us/#link-7D5XR43OCJBFLIUCNVASWN7TKU

[Tintrlvr]

On Jan 11, the 7-day average for new cases was 255k. One month later, there's a real chance of it being below 100k. That's crazy.

Well, actually it's science.

True. The way things were looking though, I didn't think it would decrease that fast.

I do wonder if vaccines are having a bigger effect than initially expected. Perhaps more spread than we actually realized was happening through healthcare workers getting exposed at work and then spreading the virus in their daily lives outside of work, so vaccinating them (really the only group that has achieved "herd immunity" levels of vaccination already) has had a more disproportionate effect than we expected.

[emailking]

Isn't it just the nature of exponentials? I know we've been having these long tails, but in theory the graph of cases should be a bell curve, and it goes down as fast as it went up.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Only 10% of people have had their first dose, and from the data we know you basically get no immunity from it until at least day 12, I doubt it's enough to really affect the numbers

[Meclazine for Israel]

Isn't it just the nature of exponentials? I know we've been having these long tails, but in theory the graph of cases should be a bell curve, and it goes down as fast as it went up.

That is what I was thinking at the start, and in most cases, yes. But then in the USA another bell curve came, and then another more devastating bell curve was superimposed on top of that.

The only saving grace is that the mortality rate is dropping as time progresses (treatment, less venerable hosts, vaccination)

Never anticipated people would be so against vaccination. We need a lot of people vaccinated to make sure this thing does no become endemic like the flu.

[It’s so Joever]

Isn't it just the nature of exponentials? I know we've been having these long tails, but in theory the graph of cases should be a bell curve, and it goes down as fast as it went up.

That is what I was thinking at the start, and in most cases, yes. But then in the USA another bell curve came, and then another more devastating bell curve was superimposed on top of that.

The only saving grace is that the mortality rate is dropping as time progresses (treatment, less venerable hosts, vaccination)

Never anticipated people would be so against vaccination. We need a lot of people vaccinated to make sure this thing does no become endemic like the flu.

I think people opposed to vaccination are a tiny minority. They may be vocal, but all the anecdotal evidence I am seeing is that there aren’t that many people opposed to it.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Isn't it just the nature of exponentials? I know we've been having these long tails, but in theory the graph of cases should be a bell curve, and it goes down as fast as it went up.

That is what I was thinking at the start, and in most cases, yes. But then in the USA another bell curve came, and then another more devastating bell curve was superimposed on top of that.

The only saving grace is that the mortality rate is dropping as time progresses (treatment, less venerable hosts, vaccination)

Never anticipated people would be so against vaccination. We need a lot of people vaccinated to make sure this thing does no become endemic like the flu.

I think people opposed to vaccination are a tiny minority. They may be vocal, but all the anecdotal evidence I am seeing is that there aren’t that many people opposed to it.

A doctor (epdemiologist) in Australia has said that 70% of the world will not be vaccinated until 2027.

[It’s so Joever]

Isn't it just the nature of exponentials? I know we've been having these long tails, but in theory the graph of cases should be a bell curve, and it goes down as fast as it went up.

That is what I was thinking at the start, and in most cases, yes. But then in the USA another bell curve came, and then another more devastating bell curve was superimposed on top of that.

The only saving grace is that the mortality rate is dropping as time progresses (treatment, less venerable hosts, vaccination)

Never anticipated people would be so against vaccination. We need a lot of people vaccinated to make sure this thing does no become endemic like the flu.

I think people opposed to vaccination are a tiny minority. They may be vocal, but all the anecdotal evidence I am seeing is that there aren’t that many people opposed to it.

A doctor (epdemiologist) in Australia has said that 70% of the world will not be vaccinated until 2027.

Is that because of lack of supply/bad distribution, or demand?

[Not Me, Us]

Isn't it just the nature of exponentials? I know we've been having these long tails, but in theory the graph of cases should be a bell curve, and it goes down as fast as it went up.

That is what I was thinking at the start, and in most cases, yes. But then in the USA another bell curve came, and then another more devastating bell curve was superimposed on top of that.

The only saving grace is that the mortality rate is dropping as time progresses (treatment, less venerable hosts, vaccination)

Never anticipated people would be so against vaccination. We need a lot of people vaccinated to make sure this thing does no become endemic like the flu.

I think people opposed to vaccination are a tiny minority. They may be vocal, but all the anecdotal evidence I am seeing is that there aren’t that many people opposed to it.

A doctor (epdemiologist) in Australia has said that 70% of the world will not be vaccinated until 2027.

Is that because of lack of supply/bad distribution, or demand?

It's probably due to developing countries, where they're getting way fewer vaccine doses and the logistics of vaccine delivery are much more complicated.

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 2/10 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

ΔW Change: Comparisons of Weekly Day-to-day Growth or Decline of COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Comparing the numbers to the same day of last week, are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

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1/31: <Sunday>

• Cases: 26,767,229 (+101,489 | ΔW Change: ↓25.01% | Σ Increase: ↑0.38%)
• Deaths: 452,279 (+1,898 | ΔW Change: ↑2.32% | Σ Increase: ↑0.42%)

2/1: <M>

• Cases: 26,911,375 (+144,146 | ΔW Change: ↓9.61% | Σ Increase: ↑0.54%)
• Deaths: 454,213 (+1,934 | ΔW Change: ↑1.68% | Σ Increase: ↑0.43%)

2/2: <T>

• Cases: 27,027,347 (+115,972 | ΔW Change: ↓22.49% | Σ Increase: ↑0.43%)
• Deaths: 457,856 (+3,643 | ΔW Change: ↓10.27% | Σ Increase: ↑0.80%)

2/3: <W>

• Cases: 27,150,457 (+123,110 | ΔW Change: ↓20.56% | Σ Increase: ↑0.46%)
• Deaths: 461,930 (+4,074 | ΔW Change: ↑0.22% | Σ Increase: ↑0.77%)

2/4: <Þ>

• Cases: 27,273,890 (+123,433 | ΔW Change: ↓28.41% | Σ Increase: ↑0.45%)
• Deaths: 466,988 (+5,058 | ΔW Change: ↑18.96% | Σ Increase: ↑1.09%)

2/5: <F>

• Cases: 27,407,324 (+133.434 | ΔW Change: ↓23.13% | Σ Increase: ↑0.49%)
• Deaths: 470,705 (+3,417 | ΔW Change: ↓7.40% | Σ Increase: ↑0.80%)

2/6: <S>

• Cases: 27,519,636 (+112,312 | ΔW Change: ↓26.86% | Σ Increase: ↑0.41%)
• Deaths: 473,528 (+2,823 | ΔW Change: ↓3.39% | Σ Increase: ↑0.60%)

2/7: <Sunday>

• Cases: 27,611,403 (+91,767 | ΔW Change: ↓9.58% | Σ Increase: ↑0.33%)
• Deaths: 474,933 (+1,405 | ΔW Change: ↓25.97% | Σ Increase: ↑0.30%)

2/8: <M>

• Cases: 27,700,629 (+89,226 | ΔW Change: ↓38.10% | Σ Increase: ↑0.32%)
• Deaths: 476,405 (+1,472 | ΔW Change: ↓23.89% | Σ Increase: ↑0.31%)

2/9 (Yesterday): <T>

• Cases: 27,799,756 (+99,127 | ΔW Change: ↓14.53% | Σ Increase: ↑0.36%)
• Deaths: 479,772 (+3,367 | ΔW Change: ↓7.58% | Σ Increase: ↑0.71%)

2/10 (Today): <W>

• Cases: 27,897,214 (+97,458 | ΔW Change: ↓20.84% | Σ Increase: ↑0.35%)
• Deaths: 483,200 (+3,428 | ΔW Change: ↓15.86% | Σ Increase: ↑0.71%)

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Continues to be a fantastic trend in case rates. The deaths are taking their time to slow down, but it's guaranteed to happen.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

My own state of Virginia seems like it may be the only big state in the country resisting the nationwide trend of consistently falling cases.  We are below our mid-January peak, but week-over-week cases have now risen 6 of the last 7 days.  And there is no sign of declining deaths yet.  I have no idea whether this is a leading indicator of national trends or a lagging one.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

My own state of Virginia seems like it may be the only big state in the country resisting the nationwide trend of consistently falling cases.  We are below our mid-January peak, but week-over-week cases have now risen 6 of the last 7 days.  And there is no sign of declining deaths yet.  I have no idea whether this is a leading indicator of national trends or a lagging one.

CovidActNow says Virginia has an R0 of 0.85, so it's probably because of more testing.