COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Maybe flu particles are more transmissible than Covid particles ... what other reason would there be that the flu has perished other than masks and social distancing ?

Also, there's a lot of people who simply don't practice masks and social distancing. Social distancing couldn't have wiped out the flu when people just don't practice it anymore.

[GeorgiaModerate]

There's not going to be another peak as bad as the past couple months. Guaranteed.

Also, I've heard that the flu is down by 98%. Where are all the flu cases going?

Flu doesn’t really exist anymore because of mask-wearing.

Most of the reduction is exactly that; masks and social distancing have greatly reduced the spread of flu this year.  But some of it may be an artifact of the way they count flu cases.  If it's hospitalizations for flu, it's very possible that some cases that might have gone to hospital in previous years may avoid doing so now because the hospitals are full of COVID patients.

[emailking]

There's not going to be another peak as bad as the past couple months. Guaranteed.

Don't see how you can possibly know that. The experts are saying it's possible.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

There's not going to be another peak as bad as the past couple months. Guaranteed.

Don't see how you can possibly know that. The experts are saying it's possible.

But they haven't explained how.

The combination of the winter months and the double-hit of holiday spread make this period seem like it'll be hard to top. The only way I can see it happening is if reinfections massively ramp up, and the data right now indicates that reinfections are an extremely rare event that has yet to be fully explained.

[Inmate Trump]

There's not going to be another peak as bad as the past couple months. Guaranteed.

Don't see how you can possibly know that. The experts are saying it's possible.

But they haven't explained how.

The combination of the winter months and the double-hit of holiday spread make this period seem like it'll be hard to top. The only way I can see it happening is if reinfections massively ramp up, and the data right now indicates that reinfections are an extremely rare event that has yet to be fully explained.

Couldn't the variants cause a worse spread going forward?

(I have no medical background, and don't exactly know what I'm talking about.)

[It’s so Joever]

There's not going to be another peak as bad as the past couple months. Guaranteed.

Don't see how you can possibly know that. The experts are saying it's possible.

But they haven't explained how.

The combination of the winter months and the double-hit of holiday spread make this period seem like it'll be hard to top. The only way I can see it happening is if reinfections massively ramp up, and the data right now indicates that reinfections are an extremely rare event that has yet to be fully explained.

Couldn't the variants cause a worse spread going forward?

(I have no medical background, and don't exactly know what I'm talking about.)

Maybe, and it’s probable, but at least we have an end in sight.

[Inmate Trump]

There's not going to be another peak as bad as the past couple months. Guaranteed.

Don't see how you can possibly know that. The experts are saying it's possible.

But they haven't explained how.

The combination of the winter months and the double-hit of holiday spread make this period seem like it'll be hard to top. The only way I can see it happening is if reinfections massively ramp up, and the data right now indicates that reinfections are an extremely rare event that has yet to be fully explained.

Couldn't the variants cause a worse spread going forward?

(I have no medical background, and don't exactly know what I'm talking about.)

Maybe, and it’s probable, but at least we have an end in sight.

What's the end?  I can't see it lol.

For real though, it does seem like every time we get a little bit ahead, something comes to drag us back down.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

What's the end?  I can't see it lol.

For real though, it does seem like every time we get a little bit ahead, something comes to drag us back down.

covid19-projections.com says every state in the U.S. now has a R0 below 1. Most states aren't even close.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

There's not going to be another peak as bad as the past couple months. Guaranteed.

Don't see how you can possibly know that. The experts are saying it's possible.

But they haven't explained how.

The combination of the winter months and the double-hit of holiday spread make this period seem like it'll be hard to top. The only way I can see it happening is if reinfections massively ramp up, and the data right now indicates that reinfections are an extremely rare event that has yet to be fully explained.

Couldn't the variants cause a worse spread going forward?

(I have no medical background, and don't exactly know what I'm talking about.)

The main question is whether the variants can reinfect people who had the original virus or not, I think. The combination of previously infected and those who may have been asymptomatic and already beat the virus means there just isn't enough real estate for the virus unless reinfections ramp up.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1355164895394861067

Nate makes a good point here.  The goal is not to eradicate COVID completely, which is probably impossible, but to control it to a level that the world can handle with a minimal amount of disruption, much like we do with the flu.  Some people do get very sick and die from the flu, and some years their are particularly bad strains, but overall it's something we can live with as a society.  And like the flu, the coronavirus mutates, so it may be necessary to get a shot every year to combat new strains.  But if we can do that for the flu, we can do it for COVID too.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Just got stage two of vaccination (yes, I already had COVID, but I was still required to get the vaccine anyway in case of a carrier situation; nevertheless, I was very low on the priority list for healthcare workers.)

[Inmate Trump]

Just got stage two of vaccination (yes, I already had COVID, but I was still required to get the vaccine anyway in case of a carrier situation; nevertheless, I was very low on the priority list for healthcare workers.)

Yay!! My second shot is next Thursday.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Nate makes a good point here.  The goal is not to eradicate COVID completely, which is probably impossible, but to control it to a level that the world can handle with a minimal amount of disruption, much like we do with the flu.

Yet the United States seems to have adopted a "zero covid" approach. Most states haven't lifted restrictions since the vaccine began being issued.

[It’s so Joever]

Nate makes a good point here.  The goal is not to eradicate COVID completely, which is probably impossible, but to control it to a level that the world can handle with a minimal amount of disruption, much like we do with the flu.

Yet the United States seems to have adopted a "zero covid" approach. Most states haven't lifted restrictions since the vaccine began being issued.

Yeah...it’s like 1% of the population, can you do math?
If it helps, I can say it to you in language you can understand.

If I have one hundred bottles of moonshine, and I drink one, I still have a lot of moonshine to get drunk on.

We haven’t even vaccinated all the elderly and of course the Kentucky fried communist wants to reopen fully without any thought.

Anyways the US has never adopted a “zero Covid” approach, but I doubt you have learned the concept of zero yet (it’s the average amount of teeth your commune has fwiw) anyways so I’m not going to bother.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Nate makes a good point here.  The goal is not to eradicate COVID completely, which is probably impossible, but to control it to a level that the world can handle with a minimal amount of disruption, much like we do with the flu.

Yet the United States seems to have adopted a "zero covid" approach. Most states haven't lifted restrictions since the vaccine began being issued.

I don’t agree with a “zero covid” approach, but it’s still way too early in the vaccintion process to start lifting restrictions.  This should be done once the majority of the vulnerable population has been fully vaccinated, which is probably 6-8 weeks away.

[MATTROSE94]

Nate makes a good point here.  The goal is not to eradicate COVID completely, which is probably impossible, but to control it to a level that the world can handle with a minimal amount of disruption, much like we do with the flu.

Yet the United States seems to have adopted a "zero covid" approach. Most states haven't lifted restrictions since the vaccine began being issued.

I don’t agree with a “zero covid” approach, but it’s still way too early in the vaccintion process to start lifting restrictions.  This should be done once the majority of the vulnerable population has been fully vaccinated, which is probably 6-8 weeks away.

I am thinking that the one thing to bring COVID down to nothing is to implement a nationwide 100 day lockdown during the vaccination process. That would prevent the new variants from surging and keep the progress that has been made with vaccination thus far. The strict lockdown approach worked pretty good in China and initially worked well in Europe, but the governments there left their guard down too soon.

[Horus]

Nate makes a good point here.  The goal is not to eradicate COVID completely, which is probably impossible, but to control it to a level that the world can handle with a minimal amount of disruption, much like we do with the flu.

Yet the United States seems to have adopted a "zero covid" approach. Most states haven't lifted restrictions since the vaccine began being issued.

I don’t agree with a “zero covid” approach, but it’s still way too early in the vaccintion process to start lifting restrictions.  This should be done once the majority of the vulnerable population has been fully vaccinated, which is probably 6-8 weeks away.

Agreed. Next few months will be bumpy but I have trips planned for June and July and I really think we'll be okay by that point. And I'm not an optimistic person.

[ProudModerate2]

Anti-science movement set up US for worse pandemic.

... "An anti-science disinformation campaign of unprecedented magnitude and led by both multinational corporations and some governments, especially the Russian and US Governments, fuels the pandemic," (infectious disease expert Dr. Peter) Hotez, dean for the National School for Tropical Medicine at the Baylor College of Medicine, wrote in the journal Plos Biology.

"Although President Trump did not win reelection and the new Biden administration has vowed to mount an evidence-based pandemic strategy, the anti-science pursuits of the Trump White House and Coronavirus Task Force have caused serious harm," Hotez wrote.

https://us.cnn.com/2021/01/29/health/anti-science-coronavirus-pandemic/index.html

[Pericles]

There's not going to be another peak as bad as the past couple months. Guaranteed.

Don't see how you can possibly know that. The experts are saying it's possible.

But they haven't explained how.

The combination of the winter months and the double-hit of holiday spread make this period seem like it'll be hard to top. The only way I can see it happening is if reinfections massively ramp up, and the data right now indicates that reinfections are an extremely rare event that has yet to be fully explained.

If one of the variants becomes widespread. The UK variant caused some scary exponential growth, and it might be part of the same surge in Spain. More contagious variants naturally mean a higher peak, unless tougher measures are brought in early.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1355286229143572482

A good trend.  If we can just get enough people vaccinated before the more contagious variants take root, we just might get things under control.

[Hammy]

Nate makes a good point here.  The goal is not to eradicate COVID completely, which is probably impossible, but to control it to a level that the world can handle with a minimal amount of disruption, much like we do with the flu.

Yet the United States seems to have adopted a "zero covid" approach. Most states haven't lifted restrictions since the vaccine began being issued.

It's more to keep hospitalizations as low as possible (which can only be done by limiting spread) since 20% of cases require hospitalization.

Even if the death rate was brought to zero for people who could be hospitalized, it's still straining the healthcare system, and having a constantly full ICU means other non-covid things (injuries, car accidents, other illnesses) can't be addressed and thus more people would die from those that would've otherwise survived

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 1/29 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

ΔW Change: Comparisons of Weekly Day-to-day Growth or Decline of COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Comparing the numbers to the same day of last week, are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

Older Numbers (Hidden in spoiler mode to make the post more compact)

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

<Last Numbers for 3/26-3/28 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 3/29-4/4 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/5-4/11 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/12-4/18 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/19-4/25 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 4/26-5/2 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 5/3-5/9 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 5/10-5/16 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 5/17-5/23 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 5/24-5/30 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 5/31-6/6 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 6/7-6/13 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 6/14-6/20 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 6/21-6/27 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 6/28-7/4 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 7/5-7/11 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 7/12-7/18 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 7/19-7/25 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 7/26-8/1 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 8/2-8/8 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 8/9-8/15 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 8/16-8/22 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 8/23-8/29 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 8/30-9/5 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 9/6-9/12 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 9/13-9/19 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 9/20-9/26 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 9/27-10/3 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 10/4-10/10 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 10/11-10/17 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 10/18-10/24 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 10/25-10/31 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 11/1-11/7 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 11/8-11/14 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 11/15-11/21 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 11/22-11/28 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 11/29-12/5 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 12/6-12/12 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 12/13-12/19 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 12/20-12/26 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 12/27-1/2 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 1/3-1/9 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 1/10-1/16 in this Post>

1/17: <Sunday>

• Cases: 24,482,050 (+176,007 | ΔW Change: ↓19.04% | Σ Increase: ↑0.72%)
• Deaths: 407,202 (+1,941 | ΔW Change: ↑8.13% | Σ Increase: ↑0.48%)

1/18: <M>

• Cases: 24,626,376 (+144,326 | ΔW Change: ↓36.10% | Σ Increase: ↑0.59%)
• Deaths: 408,620 (+1,418 | ΔW Change: ↓28.17% | Σ Increase: ↑0.35%)

1/19: <T>

• Cases: 24,806,964 (+180,588 | ΔW Change: ↓19.75% | Σ Increase: ↑0.73%)
• Deaths: 411,486 (+2,866 | ΔW Change: ↓34.11% | Σ Increase: ↑0.70%)

1/20: <W>

• Cases: 24,998,975 (+192,011 | ΔW Change: ↓22.61% | Σ Increase: ↑0.77%)
• Deaths: 415,894 (+4,408 | ΔW Change: ↑1.82% | Σ Increase: ↑1.07%)

1/21: <Þ>

• Cases: 25,196,086 (+197,111 | ΔW Change: ↓15.06% | Σ Increase: ↑0.79%)
• Deaths: 420,285 (+4,391 | ΔW Change: ↑7.99% | Σ Increase: ↑1.06%)

1/22: <F>

• Cases: 25,390,042 (+193,956 | ΔW Change: ↓23.65% | Σ Increase: ↑0.77%)
• Deaths: 424,177 (+3,892 | ΔW Change: ↑0.78% | Σ Increase: ↑0.93%)

1/23: <S>

• Cases: 25,566,789 (+176,747 | ΔW Change: ↓13.20% | Σ Increase: ↑0.82%)
• Deaths: 427,635 (+3,458 | ΔW Change: ↑1.56% | Σ Increase: ↑0.82%)

1/24: <Sunday>

• Cases: 25,702,125 (+135,336 | ΔW Change: ↓23.11% | Σ Increase: ↑0.53%)
• Deaths: 429,490 (+1,855 | ΔW Change: ↓4.43% | Σ Increase: ↑0.43%)

1/25: <M>

• Cases: 25,861,597 (+159,472 | ΔW Change: ↑10.49% | Σ Increase: ↑0.62%)
• Deaths: 431,392 (+1,902 | ΔW Change: ↑34.13% | Σ Increase: ↑0.44%)

1/26: <T>

• Cases: 26,011,222 (+149,625 | ΔW Change: ↓17.15% | Σ Increase: ↑0.58%)
• Deaths: 435,452 (+4,060 | ΔW Change: ↑41.66% | Σ Increase: ↑0.94%)

1/27: <W>

• Cases: 26,166,201 (+154,979 | ΔW Change: ↓19.29% | Σ Increase: ↑0.60%)
• Deaths: 439,517 (+4,065 | ΔW Change: ↓7.78% | Σ Increase: ↑0.93%)

1/28 (Yesterday): <Þ>

• Cases: 26,338,607 (+172,406 | ΔW Change: ↓12.53% | Σ Increase: ↑0.66%)
• Deaths: 443,769 (+4,252 | ΔW Change: ↓3.17% | Σ Increase: ↑0.97%)

1/29 (Today): <F>

• Cases: 26,512,193 (+173,586 | ΔW Change: ↓10.50% | Σ Increase: ↑0.66%)
• Deaths: 447,459 (+3,690 | ΔW Change: ↓5.19% | Σ Increase: ↑0.83%)

[Inmate Trump]

Has it been discussed why this virus is mutating to become worse than it was before, when most viruses generally mutate to be less severe?

[Meclazine for Israel]

Has it been discussed why this virus is mutating to become worse than it was before, when most viruses generally mutate to be less severe?

Strains of the flu have natural variations, not always causing a drop in severity of symptoms.

In the 3rd wave which is monstrous, it looks like it is actually winter making it much worse. COVID-19 prefers the low humidity present in the cold environments of the northern hemisphere. People with low vitamin D also appear to suffer more.

Whereas, here we are living in the southern hemisphere enduring a humid heatwave over the last month.

The end result: Australia with 13 Days COVID free.

We have halved our inbound flights for returning Australians and strengthened our quarantine protocols for hotels.

Professor Michael Kidd

https://youtu.be/s3GTyoR4u9s

The only real outbreak in Australia in 2020 was in our coldest city Melbourne in the middle of winter.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/BillFOXLA/status/1355220676228108291

These idiots just like to abuse their power for fun.