COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

If America sadly reaches 400,000 deaths by December 25, we should not lockdown.

A lockdown during winter months? In gray and cold areas like the Midwest and Appalachia?

Suicide rates and opoid rates will spike.

So sad

This will increase Hawleyism and destroy Thatcherism-Reaganism.

You know what else increases depression, and hence addiction and suicide rates? Seeing your family members die from a pandemic.

Yes, that is true. But we cannot lockdown. The economy needs to stimulate. People are still spending, whatever they have. Dunkin Donuts is still open, the bagel shop in my town is still open.

We cannot lockdown---no, no, no. It'd be a disaster.

I don't know that we necessarily need as severe a lockdown as we had in the spring - though it may be needed at the state level in some places where things are the most egregiously out of control - given that we have better mask wearing and contact tracing than we had then. But there do at least need to be closures for the most high-risk activities: bars, indoor dining, indoor entertainment, things like that.

The one mistake we absolutely need to not make again is closing down non-essential retail. Not only are these small businesses just as capable of protecting people with reduced capacity as big box stores, but it amounted to a mass transfer of business from small businesses to large businesses for no actual purpose. The remaining stores open were more crowded as a result!

Strongly agreed on retail. I do think there should be some capacity limits - particularly with Black Friday coming up - but as long as people are properly masked there isn't enough prolonged close contact for it to be particularly risky. I don't necessarily blame states for shutting down retail in the spring when the virus wasn't particularly well understood, and when the science hadn't yet made clear that surface transmission is actually a fairly minor risk, but now that we have better knowledge of what we're dealing with we should change our responses accordingly.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

NYC is closing public schools because they have crossed testing threshold.

Very dumb — testing in schools had a positivity rate of just 0.18%, with a 3% rate citywide. State guidance only enforces closures at 9% community positivity.

Tomorrow in NYC, pubic schools will be closed but gyms will still be open...

I do worry that there could be a fair bit of undetected, asymptomatic transmission going on in the schools, but strongly agree that it makes absolutely no sense to have far more risky things like restaurants and gyms open while the schools are closed.

That being said, we definitely need to prioritize teachers for vaccination once that becomes available, maybe not quite in the same priority tier as health care workers, but probably one step below that.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

We're on track to hit >200,000 new cases >2,000 deaths in one day before the end of this week. Things are spinning out of control.

Yeah, death and hospitalization numbers are both getting really bad. New case numbers for today are definitely higher than yesterday, so still hard to say what the trend is there.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Two more House members announced Wednesday they have tested positive for Covid-19 and are isolating, the latest in a string of diagnoses that have hit Capitol Hill.

The cases brings CNN's tally to 26 House members and eight senators that have so far tested positive or been presumed positive.

Rep. Dan Newhouse, a Republican from Washington and Rep. Doug Lamborn, a Republican from Colorado, announced separately they had tested positive for Covid-19.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/18/politics/covid-19-house-members-congress-capitol-hill/index.html

My own Representative has it! That means two members of Colorado's delegation-Perlmutter and Lamborn-have now contracted coronavirus. As I said elsewhere, the virus is spreading through the halls of Congress like wildfire.

Given how much of Congress is made up of 60 and 70 year olds, hardly a surprise at this point. I can only hope that maybe if more of them get it, maybe more of them will take it seriously as a national issue.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1329223825930665984

Test positivity rate is just astronomically high in some states right now, which suggests we probably aren't coming even remotely close to catching everything.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

It's still early and a lot of states haven't reported anything yet but man today's numbers do not look good at all.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

It's still early and a lot of states haven't reported anything yet but man today's numbers do not look good at all.

Did some rough calculations and 185K seems like an optimistic minimum for how many cases we'll end up with today. Will probably be worse, though.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

The next few weeks are going to be just unbelievably tragic.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

This thing is going to be reaching its peak almost exactly at Thanksgiving, and then it's going to start going right back up in like two or three weeks as the infections from that start showing up in the data.

Really, really bad timing.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

https://twitter.com/COVID19Tracking/status/1333930759539798017

New case numbers looking bad today as the testing has started to ramp back up post-Thanksgiving. Hospitalizations at a new record nationally, too.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Governor: Oklahoma will fight COVID-19 with hunger and prayers.

In response to the unchecked COVID-19 pandemic, Gov. Kevin Stitt has declared a statewide day of prayer and fasting on Thursday.

“Oklahomans have always turned to prayer to guide us through trials and seasons of uncertainty, and I am asking Oklahomans of all faiths and religious backgrounds to join together with me on Thursday,” Stitt said in a press release.

“I believe we must continue to ask God to heal those who are sick, comfort those who are hurting and provide renewed strength and wisdom to all who are managing the effects of COVID-19,” the governor said.

Religious fundamentalism continues to expose itself for the fraud that it is.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Yeah, I don't really see why we should be holding vaccines back for second doses.  The data shows that just getting the first dose is just over 50% effective by itself, and a lot of people who get the first dose won't get the second dose regardless, so from an efficiency standpoint, it seems like we should be using the vaccines we have as quickly as we can use them.

If anything, that effectiveness estimate is probably low from a practical standpoint, since many of those infections occurred in the first week after receiving it before the vaccine could really take effect. Makes absolutely no sense to be reserving large number of doses for later, unless there is evidence that the single dose is significantly less effective in already vulnerable populations than in the population at large.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Update to the Google Trends chart for searches of "loss of smell". This does look fairly consistent with the United States slowly reaching a peak for the current spike, although I'll want another week or two of data to be confident in that.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Already over 3000 deaths today

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

I don't understand the people in the media who keep insisting everyone is going to have to wear masks and practice social distancing for months after the vaccine is administered.

There are people on Reddit who have praised every covid restriction - no matter how ridiculous - and have attacked anyone who dares to oppose it. But even these folks say now they're pretty much done, now that the vaccine is out. Yet the media keeps interviewing "experts" who say the restrictions will need to continue for months, maybe over a year.

So they're saying the vaccine won't do any good? Then what was the point of even creating a vaccine?

I have noticed the goalposts have moved yet again. When states first locked down, it was "flatten the curve", and then it was "until a vaccine", and now it's...?

Because we need to wait until enough of the population needs to get vaccinated for there to be widespread immunity? When the only people getting vaccinated are hospital workers and whatnot there isn't going to be enough of that. Hopefully by late spring/early summer enough people will have had two doses where we can finally get back to normal.

This isn't complicated. But then again you are a troll.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Anyone have projects when we will stop seeing 200,000 cases per day?

Very soon. The Plains states are already cratering, and a vaccine even for just a limited number of people should limit the spread.

California is really the main culprit in keeping the numbers high, as they keep imposing lockdowns that don't work.

To the extent that I have an issue with various restrictions in California, it's only because there have been so many prominent examples of elected officials not following their own rules. Claiming that restrictions are somehow causing the spread is just stupid.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Best strategy at this point is to vaccinate the elderly population and that young and healthy people should now not wear masks and throw covid parties and deliberately get infected. That would be the fastest way to achieve an end to this pandemic.

This is a great plan if your goal is to make sure that a bunch of people who are currently young and healthy end up with permanent lung damage.

I do not understand this widespread view that somehow all COVID cases fall into two categories, either death or complete recovery. It's not that simple.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

I really had thought that things were plateauing in the new case numbers in December. Obvious now that that isn't the case.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 1/15 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

ΔW Change: Comparisons of Weekly Day-to-day Growth or Decline of COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Comparing the numbers to the same day of last week, are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

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1/3: <Sunday>

• Cases: 21,113,528 (+208,827 | ΔW Change: ↑49.16% | Σ Increase: ↑1.00%)
• Deaths: 360,078 (+1,396 | ΔW Change: ↑14.71% | Σ Increase: ↑0.39%)

1/4: <M>

• Cases: 21,353,051 (+239,523 | ΔW Change: ↑15.28% | Σ Increase: ↑1.13%)
• Deaths: 362,123 (+2,045 | ΔW Change: ↑0.05% | Σ Increase: ↑0.57%)

1/5: <T>

• Cases: 21,578,606 (+225,555 | ΔW Change: ↑15.03% | Σ Increase: ↑1.06%)
• Deaths: 365,620 (+3,497 | ΔW Change: ↑2.94% | Σ Increase: ↑0.97%)

1/6: <W>

• Cases: 21,857,616 (+279,010 | ΔW Change: ↑16.60% | Σ Increase: ↑1.29%)
• Deaths: 369,990 (+4,370 | ΔW Change: ↑4.07% | Σ Increase: ↑1.20%)

1/7 (Last Þ Holiday): <Þ>

• Cases: 22,132,045 (+274,429 | ΔW Change: ↑20.01% | Σ Increase: ↑1.26%)
• Deaths: 374,124 (+4,134 | ΔW Change: ↑20.28% | Σ Increase: ↑1.12%)

1/8 (Last F Holiday): <F>

• Cases: 22,456,902 (+324,857 | ΔW Change: ↑89.21% | Σ Increase: ↑1.47%)
• Deaths: 378,149 (+4,025 | ΔW Change: ↑80.49% | Σ Increase: ↑1.08%)

1/9: <S>

• Cases: 22,699,938 (+243,036 | ΔW Change: ↓15.42% | Σ Increase: ↑1.08%)
• Deaths: 381,480 (+3,331 | ΔW Change: ↑48.90% | Σ Increase: ↑0.88%)

1/10: <Sunday>

• Cases: 22,917,334 (+217,396 | ΔW Change: ↑4.10% | Σ Increase: ↑0.96%)
• Deaths: 383,275 (+1,795 | ΔW Change: ↑28.58% | Σ Increase: ↑0.47%)

1/11: <M>

• Cases: 23,143,197 (+225,863 | ΔW Change: ↓5.70% | Σ Increase: ↑0.99%)
• Deaths: 385,249 (+1,974 | ΔW Change: ↓3.47% | Σ Increase: ↑0.52%)

1/12: <T>

• Cases: 23,368,225 (+225,028 | ΔW Change: ↓0.23% | Σ Increase: ↑0.97%)
• Deaths: 389,599 (+4,350 | ΔW Change: ↑24.39% | Σ Increase: ↑1.13%)

1/13: <W>

• Cases: 23,616,345 (+248,120 | ΔW Change: ↓11.07% | Σ Increase: ↑1.06%)
• Deaths: 393,928 (+4,329 | ΔW Change: ↓0.94% | Σ Increase: ↑1.11%)

1/14 (Yesterday): <Þ>

• Cases: 23,848,410 (+232,065 | ΔW Change: ↓15.44% | Σ Increase: ↑0.98%)
• Deaths: 397,994 (+4,066 | ΔW Change: ↓1.64% | Σ Increase: ↑1.03%)

1/15 (Today): <F>

• Cases: 24,102,429 (+254,019 | ΔW Change: ↓21.81% | Σ Increase: ↑1.07%)
• Deaths: 401,856 (+3,862 | ΔW Change: ↓4.05% | Σ Increase: ↑0.97%)

Is this likely a trend?

Keep in mind that the spikes in case numbers the previous week were likely to some extent compensating for recording backlogs from the Christmas and New Years holidays.  So some drop is probably expected.  It seems to me like if you account for the holiday recording gaps, cases have actually been pretty flat for about six weeks.

Hospitalizations, where are much more stable against the various reporting delays due to holidays and whatnot, look like they are finally starting to come down a bit, but they are still very, very high, and I would want another week or two of data to be sure that that isn't just noise.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Good news!
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2021/02/11/white-house-200-million-more-covid-vaccine-doses-.html

Huge improvement over the prior situation.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

https://twitter.com/TimFullerton/status/1361031758091849731

Incredibly encouraging.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

!!

We seem to be nearing the end of the COVID pandemic in the United States and its territories.

The fact that the week-to-week case numbers are still consistently declining even in spite of the end of mask mandates is an incredibly positive sign. The vaccines are working spectacularly, and enough of the country is vaccinated that even if some unvaccinated people are choosing not to wear a mask, the numbers are likely to keep declining. Just a massive turnaround from where things were at the start of the year.

I've still been wearing my mask in public places for the last two weeks just out of an abundance of caution, even though I've been vaccinated since early March, but seeing the declining case numbers continue to play out the way they have means I will now unquestionably feel safe not wearing one going forward. What a relief.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

It's not over yet.

https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1406257131565637632

I mean, the vaccinations have been continuing, so as long as the vaccines are effective against the delta variant, there shouldn't be much more to worry about than there was with the alpha variant. Biggest problems are going to be in states where vaccinations rates are low.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Reported for misinformation and vaccine denialism.

People are looking for ANY reason to reinstate covid restrictions forever.

No, people actually want the opposite. They want everyone to be vaccinated so we can reopen safely and not need to lockdown again. Rushing to reopen is going to necessitate another lockdown.

Are you living in a box? We've been reopened for literally months now. Texas has been completely reopen since March. I swear the Atlas COVID doomers don't go outside at all

I think we really need to make a greater distinction between actual lockdowns - with mandatory business closures and strict capacity limits on those places that are allowed to remain open - and things like mask mandates. The number of people who actually want true lockdowns is a vanishingly small percentage of the population, and given how effective the vaccines have been against the COVID variants thus far, I can't imagine we're going to be seeing any true lockdowns going forward. The public isn't going to tolerate something that drastic solely for the purpose of protecting those who are too stubborn to get vaccinated. Mask mandates, on the other hand, are a far less dramatic burden. While I don't think we need any such mandates currently outside of hospitals and other high-risk areas, I do think it's possible we see some return to more widespread masking in the late fall/winter if we get another major wave due to the significant percentage of the population that remains unvaccinated.

I'm not saying such a return to masking is necessarily likely, but it is at least a possibility that is worthy of discussion. Full-on lockdowns are a straw man that aren't worthy of discussion at this point in the pandemic.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

https://ktla.com/news/local-news/l-a-county-again-requirinhttps://ktla.com/news/local-news/l-a-county-again-requiring-masks-indoors-starting-saturday/g-masks-indoors-starting-saturday/

LA county to bring back mask mandates.

Why not mandate vaccines?

Because that is seen as vastly more invasive than a mask mandate.

Not saying I support that logic, but that's the logic at work.