California Senate 2024 - Schiff (D) vs Garvey (R)

[Greedo punched first]

Khanna is a cuck if his only reason for not running is that Lee would be a black woman in the senate, there’s no Asian men either meaning he should run

I think if I understood what this means, I would probably find it offensive

All the way with Katie Porter, in fact I'm gonna go make a donation to her campaign right now.

This will be her advantage. TBD if out of state donations transform into in-state votes though

I made a $20 donation, I suppose after making dual donations to Warnock & Ossoff in 20 and to Warnock in 22 and having it work out I may as well try my hand at my predictive powers with Porter.  

I still don't think it's going to translate as well as she thinks it does. Out of state dollars don't correspond to anybody's vote here in California though.

I mean I was born, raised and regularly spent many intervals of my adult life in California and have a ton of family and friends there so while I can't vote there anymore I wouldn't say my finger is entirely off the pulse of California (Bay Area) voters.

We shall see as the race develops though, certainly gonna be one of the most interesting elections of the cycle.

May I ask your racial and/or ethnic background?

Because tbh that's a question of great importance. Our v white entertainment and v white tech industries are here, so most images people are exposed to of CA are of ppl like me: blond, blue eyed medium-leftists who listen to NPR and read the news every morning. I have said and will say again that among my demographic, white gay guys (which is btw a numerically v large number of primary voters) Katie is prolly gonna perform well.

But she will have lots of competition among white people, and the battleline there are pretty hardened. White leftists go with Lee, liberals with Porter, and the apparently millions of people who care what Nancy Pelosi thinke with Adam Schiff.

Same with African Americans. A decent number will vote for Schiff because of ideological anti-leftism, but Barbara Lee is gonna win 90%+

What it will come down to is East and South Asian Americans (who Porter has ties with and demonstrated ability to win, I'll give her that), West Asian Americans like Iranians and Armenians, who Schiff has a similar relationship with buttttttt also lean pretty left as a constituency, and, more importantly, Latinos, who comprise a large part of Adam Schiff's district but I think are v up for grabs and poised to be kingmakers here. Most Latino friends I've spoken to thus far have only one opinion rly: f*** DiFi and who cares lol

If the runoff was hypothetically between Adam Schiff and term-limited Garden Grove mayor Steve Jones (R), who would you want to win?

[GALeftist]

Really pulling for Lee here!

[Greedo punched first]

Is it going to be either Porter or Schiff who wins Orange County (depending on which SoCal candidate finishes in the top two)?

[gerritcole]

Khanna is a cuck if his only reason for not running is that Lee would be a black woman in the senate, there’s no Asian men either meaning he should run

I think if I understood what this means, I would probably find it offensive

r u offended on behalf of cucks/black women/ or asian men

[Greedo punched first]

Would a D vs D race be competitive? What would such a county map look like?

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

Khanna is a cuck if his only reason for not running is that Lee would be a black woman in the senate, there’s no Asian men either meaning he should run

I think if I understood what this means, I would probably find it offensive

All the way with Katie Porter, in fact I'm gonna go make a donation to her campaign right now.

This will be her advantage. TBD if out of state donations transform into in-state votes though

I made a $20 donation, I suppose after making dual donations to Warnock & Ossoff in 20 and to Warnock in 22 and having it work out I may as well try my hand at my predictive powers with Porter.  

I still don't think it's going to translate as well as she thinks it does. Out of state dollars don't correspond to anybody's vote here in California though.

I mean I was born, raised and regularly spent many intervals of my adult life in California and have a ton of family and friends there so while I can't vote there anymore I wouldn't say my finger is entirely off the pulse of California (Bay Area) voters.

We shall see as the race develops though, certainly gonna be one of the most interesting elections of the cycle.

May I ask your racial and/or ethnic background?

Because tbh that's a question of great importance. Our v white entertainment and v white tech industries are here, so most images people are exposed to of CA are of ppl like me: blond, blue eyed medium-leftists who listen to NPR and read the news every morning. I have said and will say again that among my demographic, white gay guys (which is btw a numerically v large number of primary voters) Katie is prolly gonna perform well.

But she will have lots of competition among white people, and the battleline there are pretty hardened. White leftists go with Lee, liberals with Porter, and the apparently millions of people who care what Nancy Pelosi thinke with Adam Schiff.

Same with African Americans. A decent number will vote for Schiff because of ideological anti-leftism, but Barbara Lee is gonna win 90%+

What it will come down to is East and South Asian Americans (who Porter has ties with and demonstrated ability to win, I'll give her that), West Asian Americans like Iranians and Armenians, who Schiff has a similar relationship with buttttttt also lean pretty left as a constituency, and, more importantly, Latinos, who comprise a large part of Adam Schiff's district but I think are v up for grabs and poised to be kingmakers here. Most Latino friends I've spoken to thus far have only one opinion rly: f*** DiFi and who cares lol

Oh I absolutely agree with you that my pulse is probably among my demographic group which is middle-class, white, gay men. So like you said, I'm sure Porter is gonna floor it with that group considering she's a strong, progressive, female which gay men tend to have an affinity for, at least in my experience.

[Ragnaroni]

Would a D vs D race be competitive? What would such a county map look like?

2018 was reasonably competitive was it not? That was Harris v Padilla IRCC.

[Greedo punched first]

Would a D vs D race be competitive? What would such a county map look like?

2018 was reasonably competitive was it not? That was Harris v Padilla IRCC.

No. 2018 was Feinstein vs de Leon. Would Katie Porter win Orange County in a runoff against Barbara Lee?

[coloradocowboi]

Oh I absolutely agree with you that my pulse is probably among my demographic group which is middle-class, white, gay men. So like you said, I'm sure Porter is gonna floor it with that group considering she's a strong, progressive, female which gay men tend to have an affinity for, at least in my experience.

Some of the only precincts won by Elizabeth Warren in CA in 2020 were in West Hollywood and the Castro. I have a feeling that could happen to Porter. The primary is also only one year away

[brucejoel99]

Oh I absolutely agree with you that my pulse is probably among my demographic group which is middle-class, white, gay men. So like you said, I'm sure Porter is gonna floor it with that group considering she's a strong, progressive, female which gay men tend to have an affinity for, at least in my experience.

Some of the only precincts won by Elizabeth Warren in CA in 2020 were in West Hollywood and the Castro. I have a feeling that could happen to Porter. The primary is also only one year away

Inshallah:

[Greedo punched first]

What are each candidate's base?

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

What are each candidate's base?

If I were to compare them to 2020; Lee is going to be the Bernie voters choice, Schiff is gonna pull from Clinton, and Porter is gonna pull from Warren and some of Clinton too. She’ll get more of the “I’m with her” women.

Granted there’s been little campaigning yet so this could all change greatly.

[brucejoel99]

What are each candidate's base?

If I were to compare them to 2022; Lee is going to be the Bernie voters choice, Schiff is gonna pull from Clinton, and Porter is gonna pull from Warren and some of Clinton too. She’ll get more of the “I’m with her” women.

Granted there’s been little campaigning yet so this could all change greatly.

Not to mention that Lee also might just have the slight advantage of being able to pull off the impossible:

https://twitter.com/rev_avocado/status/1614077362404196353

[Greedo punched first]

What would a Lee vs Porter map look like?

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

What would a Lee vs Porter map look like?

Dems would probably split north-south, and Republicans would favour Lee.

[Greedo punched first]

Will ethnic composition of each county play a factor?

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

From a numbers perspective I think the African American vote is going to be less important in California than it is in other states primaries simply due to how democratic the rest of the state is. AA communites punch above their weight in democratic primaries due to their extreme democratic registration edge. This advantage is lessend in California both because the top-two system functions as an open primary, and the broad democratic lean of other racial groups.

[Greedo punched first]

If Lee drops out, does Ro Khanna get in?

[Mr. Smith]

What would a Lee vs Porter map look like?

Dems would probably split north-south, and Republicans would favour Lee.

No. Just no.

[coloradocowboi]

What would a Lee vs Porter map look like?

Dems would probably split north-south, and Republicans would favour Lee.

No. Just no.

Over Schiff, I think this is possible because he is so toxic to a lot of Rs.

From a numbers perspective I think the African American vote is going to be less important in California than it is in other states primaries simply due to how democratic the rest of the state is. AA communites punch above their weight in democratic primaries due to their extreme democratic registration edge. This advantage is lessend in California both because the top-two system functions as an open primary, and the broad democratic lean of other racial groups.

The black community still punches high above their proportion of them population, and I wouldn’t discount the fact that a lot latinas and other women of color will vote for Lee for similar reasons to black women, e.g. identification, relatability, etc.

[Greedo punched first]

Would Porter win Orange County (her home county) in a runoff against Lee, or would Porter lose OC like Marco Rubio lost Florida in the 2016 GOP presidential primary?

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

The black community still punches high above their proportion of them population, and I wouldn’t discount the fact that a lot latinas and other women of color will vote for Lee for similar reasons to black women, e.g. identification, relatability, etc.

Is there any evidence of this happening before, of non-black minority woman favouring a black woman over a white woman all things held constant ?

[Greedo punched first]

Will Porter do well with Chinese-Americans and Vietnamese-Americans in Orange County, especially because they're fairly large minority groups in CA-47?

[coloradocowboi]

Is there any evidence of this happening before, of non-black minority woman favouring a black woman over a white woman all things held constant ?

That’s not the claim I made, first of all. And it’s not a question you can operationalize at any rate. That being said, how could you even know? How many black women have run for statewide office? What kind of evidence are you looking for?

Shirley Weber outperformed Gavin Newsom in Latino areas, for what it’s worth. Karen Bass ultimately fended off Caruso by improving on her performance in KDL and Cedillo’s districts, which are predominantly Asian and Latino. I dk it’s also the case that people who experience similar oppressions have similar experiences and ideologies? It’s not like the terms “woman of color” and “woman of color feminism” have no valence to anyone at all even if not all women of color feel this way.

Heck, even Diana Degette’s closest primary challenge in Denver came from Saira Rao lol

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

LA Times: These Democrats hoping to replace Feinstein largely agree on policy. So how do they differ?

The biggest names vying to replace retiring Sen. Dianne Feinstein largely agree on many issues dearest to Democratic voters, so their differing political passions, generational perspectives and life stories will likely be front and center in the first hotly contested Senate race in California in more than a decade.

Reps. Katie Porter, Adam B. Schiff and Barbara Lee all claim the progressive mantle, an almost essential ingredient for any politician hoping to put together a winning Senate campaign in a state that champions gun control, abortion rights, marriage equality and combating climate change. They face the difficult task of defining themselves in a heavily Democratic electorate that may struggle to distinguish what separates them.

“California is not going to elect a Republican. And they’re not going to elect a centrist. The question is what kind of progressivism is most important” to voters, said Dan Schnur, a politics professor at UC Berkeley, USC and Pepperdine University. “These three candidates represent very different strains of progressivism.”[...]

The three lawmakers’ voting records are nearly identical, as are their views on reproductive rights, same-sex marriage and labor rights, so Californians should expect to see a major emphasis on pivotal issues and votes where they did diverge, as well as on campaign finance.

One difference will be Lee’s post-9/11 votes contrasted with Schiff’s support of military action in Iraq and Afghanistan, as well as the Patriot Act’s ability to surveil American citizens. Another point of contention will be who backs their campaigns financially.

Porter refuses donations from corporate political action committees and federal lobbyists, while Schiff has received significant sums from committees representing businesses, including oil firms, payday lenders and pharmaceutical interests, according to campaign finance reports. A Schiff spokesman said he would not accept donations from corporate PACs for his Senate campaign.[...]

https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2023-02-20/democrats-feinstein-porter-schiff-lee