California Senate 2024 - Schiff (D) vs Garvey (R)

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Sadly Khanna likely won't run because it seems he's supporting Lee who's all but declared. I agree with the above poster who mentioned Republicans won't necessarily vote for the more "moderate" candidate in a D vs D race, they'll vote for the less openly partisan one.
So Porter would get more R support than Schiff, and Lee more than both. Khanna would do insanely well with Republicans but since he's not running its irrelevant.

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Are there any actual notable ideological differences between Porter and Schiff? I can totally understand why people might prefer one but it's weird how some are hyping it up as much more than a personality contest.

Yeah tbh Porter isn't even that progressive, she's to the right of Warren but is just good at presenting herself like a leftist. Khanna or Lee are.both actual progressives and would be genuinely some of the best senators.

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Feinstein still a possibility? Heck, I almost want her to run at this point just to see how she gets embarrassed in a fifth or sixth place finish.

If Feinstein runs I think she’ll become the de facto Republican candidate should no big names jump in.

Nope. Republicans would vote for Khanna, Lee or even Porter over Feinstein.
Just like how Democrats usually like a Republican the more anti-Trump they are with no regards to policy, Republicans usually like a Democrat more the less hostile they are to Republican voters or how much they piss off the media/democratic establishment.
This is why in 2020 Trump voters viewed Yang and Tulsi very positively despite at that time their political beliefs being well to the LEFT of the centre of their party. This is because they didn't spend all their time attacking Trump and made an effort to reach out to Trump voters. Even Bernie was way more liked among the Republican base than Biden or Clinton.
Schiff is basically just known for being anti-Trump (and seems to be revolving his whole campaign around it so he won't get any R votes. Feinstein is California's symbol for the Democratic establishment (and is backed by the media, Pelosi, etc.) so she won't get any R votes.
Porter is running a more policy-focused campaign so as long as she sticks to anti-corruption, economically progressive stuff like in her first and and stays away from making her campaign about social progressivism, she might get some R votes (although not too much cause she's a cable TV regular and comes across as a dem hack sometimes).
Lee would win over quite a few Rs because she is not that well liked by the democratic establishment, would not make being anti-Trump the focus of her campaign and doesn't come across as a partisan hack.
Khanna is like a tailor-made candidate to get Republican votes (even if he isn't running). He deliberately often tries.to reach out to Trump voters and has populist messaging, is non-combatative with right-wingers (he's even friends with Gaetz) so is easier to stomach voting for than others, and most importantly he doesn't act like he hates Republican voters which I think a lot of people forget.

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Every major candidate named Adam who ran in 2022 lost their race by a razor thin margin, Will Adam
Schiff be next?

Maybe. Unless it's a D v R general I don't see Adam Schiff winning a second round. Progressives and Republicans would unite against him no matter his opponent.

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Khanna > Lee > Porter > Schiff

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What would a Lee vs Porter map look like?

Dems would probably split north-south, and Republicans would favour Lee.

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https://twitter.com/GregLeeKTVU/status/1628036605729722374
https://twitter.com/GregLeeKTVU/status/1628117297201319936
https://twitter.com/metzgov/status/1628053364633219075

Ehh, identity politics usually doesn't work even in Dem primaries. She should campaign on being the real leftist.

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Porter and Schiff just voted for MORE WAR IN SYRIA while Lee voted against it. The true progressive is obvious.

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Porter and Schiff just voted for MORE WAR IN SYRIA while Lee voted against it. The true progressive is obvious.

Lee's record isn't perfect, but she's voted against Syria, Iraq, and even Afghanistan while hawk Schiff has voted for all of those.

Exactly my point

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And just like that Porter becomes my least favorite Democratic Senate candidate. This type of dangerous, misinformed rhetoric is the last thing we need from a U.S. Senator. Before commenting on this issue she needs to understand the vast difference between the US and Israel. This is disqualifying imo - she's just casually promoting the end of democracy in another country.

https://twitter.com/Ian_Gay_briel/status/1633228672772591618?s=20

LOL if there's one thing I didn't expect, it's Katie Porter coming out as pro-Netanyahu.

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It gets worse:

https://twitter.com/michaelarria/status/1633174480141918209
Warrenites, man.

Democrats of the Elizabeth Warren school of thought are the worst. Not only are they pretending to be progressives, they are TERRIBLY politically and come off as extremely unappealing to average voters.

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Schiff has the advantage now

No, actually. Assuming he makes it to the general, he has no base. Republicans won't vote for him and Porter and Lee already have the left of center vote locked up.

Schiff is the candidate of wealthy establishment liberals. He’d crush Lee in SoCal as she’s too economically left for a lot of those voters, and so is Porter in Silicon Valley.

In keeping with what I've said in this thread in the past, it's absolutely inscrutable what "establishment" means here. People should stop using "establishment" to mean "economically right-wing" and just say that. Those terms might be synonymous in New York but they're very much not here.

With regard to any actual establishment, at most what you can say is that Schiff is one of two candidates to have gotten significant support from elected officials. As has been brought up repeatedly in this thread, there has been absolutely no indication that the California Democratic Party establishment supports Schiff over Lee. It's annoying to have to keep repeating this.

As for the rest of the post, it's helpful to remember that Bernie Sanders won 47 out of 53 congressional districts in the state of California in the 2020 primary. Although he won nearly everywhere, Sanders's best districts were in the Los Angeles area, where he received at least 49% of the vote in five different districts. There is just no evidence that an "economically left" candidate would get "crushed" by the Democratic primary electorate in California.

If you're referring to the California electorate in a general election, I'll quote what I've already said:

[Feinstein] being "more conservative" has nothing to do with the way that California Republicans vote in elections between two Democrats. There have been two senatorial elections in California between two Democrats, and in both cases Republican areas overwhelmingly voted for the Democrat running the more left-wing campaign. As I've mentioned on this thread previously, Schiff and Porter each could face serious difficulty attracting Republican votes, but that is because they are both cable news personalities. Ideology is not relevant here.

It's the general election. When it comes to GOP votes, how would Lee do?

If against another democrat, Lee gets most the R votes. She isn't often on MSNBC talking trash about Trump like the rest of them, she's more populist and has that Bernie-Trump appeal. R voters aren't ideological, they vote based on vibes.

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If against another democrat, Lee gets most the R votes. She isn't often on MSNBC talking trash about Trump like the rest of them, she's more populist and has that Bernie-Trump appeal. R voters aren't ideological, they vote based on vibes.

Generally speaking, Democrats' economic agenda is a lot more popular than their social issues, and Lee is a lot more of a socialist than a social justice warrior. I also think that the historicity of her candidacy will speak to some Republicans in CA for sure, especially if it's a convenient excuse not to vote for the loathsome Adam Schiff. I don't know if Lee would be favored against Porter to the same extent as she would against Schiff though. Given Porter's shifting to the right, I actually think she would have an advantage with GOP voters over Lee. On the other hand though, I think Lee performs better with center-left, Dem "establishment" voters against Porter than Schiff, and there are a lot more of those here than Republicans sadly

While Lee wouldn't do AS well with Republican voters against Porter as she would against Schiff (any CA Democrat apart from Pelosi would win Rs against Schiff), she would still beat Porter with them.
Lee isn't as much of a woke-type as Porter, and Porter radiates elite wine mom energy like her inspiration Liz Warren does. Porter is also often on cable news attacking Trump which would put a lot of Rs off voting for her.

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https://twitter.com/RoKhanna/status/1639613106849734656
Khanna looks like he'll announce he's running today.

Idk. Imo his announcement is that he's not running and he's endorsing Lee.
As I've said, if he does get in, all he needs to do is get in the top 2, cause he would beat any other Democrat (or republican) in a runoff.

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If the general is Lee vs Schiff (as is looking likely at the moment) then the general is likely Lee.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

If the general is Lee vs Schiff (as is looking likely at the moment) then the general is likely Lee.

Right now, Schiff vs Porter looks far more likely

I hope it is, I like Lee, and I think she would make a good Senator, but she is just too old to be running for a first term in the Senate, especially at a time when we clearly need younger voices in government. Her running now makes me question why she just didn't run in 2016.

Just like with Justice in WV, she may not be the best option, but at least she'll probably only run for one term so someone better can run next time around. Plus she's clearly the best on the issues.