California Senate 2024 - Schiff (D) vs Garvey (R)

[coloradocowboi]

I don't think anyone in the Congressional delegation runs against Feinstein, quite honestly.

I would look at current and recent statewide downballot officeholders as the likely Feinstein opponents in 2024. So, Kounlakis, possibly Becerra if he decides to leave the Cabinet, also probably Ma and Yee seem like plausible candidates in 2024.

Kounalakis and Feinstein are both NorCal machine politicians. Eleni wouldn't jump in the primary because she wants Feinstein's donors in the case of an open governor election (which is what she is planning to go for at any rate). It's also been long rumored that Khanna would rather be governor than Senator, and he would be unlikely to primary Feinstein for similar reasons to Eleni.

Porter and Schiff, on the other hand, have nothing to lose and will probably jump into this race no matter what. I personally don't think Feinstein ultimately runs. Things like debates and cutting commercials will embarass and doom her campaign. She's got like dementia and s***

In the likely event Feinstein doesn't run, I expect London Breed to make a vain, quixotic, identity politics and white liberal grievance campaign with Bloomberg money. There's an opening for another NorCal politician, but I dk who. Barbara Lee is too old. Nobody else really has the profile

[coloradocowboi]

Yeah, Weiner is a much more realistic choice for the San Francisco House seat than the Senate.

I have met Scott a few times and he’s very good at self promotion but not so much with actual campaigning, and ever since his last state senate race he’s lost the lgbtq community in a big way too. He’s kind of become a landlord candidate, whether fair or not, and I don’t expect him to win anything at all, including the House seat. SF is in a rough place politically because most of the state still associates it with urban chaos, while leftists in California associate it with wealth inequality. This is also why a London Breed campaign will go up in flames. I’m not even sure she will win re-election.

I think that Porter is basically guaranteed a top two spot if Khanna doesn’t run. It gets interesting to muse about how she would fare against different opponents. The most likely scenario is Porter vs Republican, which she would win. I think Schiff would probably beat her though

[coloradocowboi]

I'd prefer Porter (younger, more left), but Schiff wouldn't be objectionable.

I used to live in Schiff's district and was not particularly impressed with the constituent services. Lots of promotional emails, not a lot of focus on district-specific issues, particularly homelessness which has been particularly acute in Hollywood since I first moved to LA in 2017. He's also been on the wrong side of issues like bail reform, the Middle East kind of broadly (supported Iraq War, hates Palestinians, cheerleaded the Saudi invasion of Yemen), equitable taxation. He's a SALT deduction liberal running in a state where a working class, mostly nonwhite electorate will decide his fate. There is a reason a drag queen joke candidate got a third of the vote in this last election. Tbf it's Silver Lake and Los Feliz specifically that are the problem, v progressive areas of the city, but still I have a hard time seeing how a moderate with a questionable voting record and no real cultural or geographic base in California will get out of the top two primary. His constituency is truly Hollywood Hills rich ppl, and their money will carry him far but not far enough.

Obviously, I don't plan to vote for him and anticipate supporting pretty much anyone to his left. Heck, even Villaraigosa if it comes to it (pray it doesn't lol)

[coloradocowboi]

https://twitter.com/gavinbena/status/1593070360995729408

I can guarantee you this many congresscritters wouldnt run; and neither will Feinstein because again folks she is visibly exhibiting signa of dementia

[coloradocowboi]

https://twitter.com/sarahnferris/status/1592977190064365568

Endorsed. One of my favorite House Dems.

I like him too, he's been relentless in investigating 1/6 and trump's criminality, but I would rather have a woman replace Feinstein.

That's why I'm not too sure why Schiff is getting in. Even his own district is gonna be filled with Katie Porter or Ro Khanna voters (one of them will likely defer to the other, prolly Khanna cuz he could easily win Gov in 2026 against a much weaker field, i.e. kounalakis). It also sounds like there is a nonzero chance that Barbara Lee is getting in, which doesn't make too much sense to me given her age, but also would make her imo the easy frontrunner.

If she doesn't, there will be a huge incentive to a nonwhite candidate to get in. There may be an incentive to a Latino candidate regardless. At any rate, I don't really know who Adam Schiff's constituency is that makes him this confident about mounting a Senate bid

[coloradocowboi]

Porter just had a big scandal regarding her treatment of staff, not sure she runs for senate at this point.  The main two candidates im likely to support at this point are either Khanna or Barbra Lee, though ill wait to see who announces and what their platform is before I make any commitments.

If she gets in, I'm all in on Barbara Lee. At this point, I think she'd be the frontrunner.

[coloradocowboi]

Porter just had a big scandal regarding her treatment of staff, not sure she runs for senate at this point.  The main two candidates im likely to support at this point are either Khanna or Barbra Lee, though ill wait to see who announces and what their platform is before I make any commitments.

If she gets in, I'm all in on Barbara Lee. At this point, I think she'd be the frontrunner.

LoL Adam Schiff is the Fav he is anxious to get outta H

You dk this state. He will be perceived as a boring white guy, precluding a lot of D support, and would probably lose a lot of Republicans to the progressive, bitter about what he did to Trump. His only support will be billionaires and celebrities, and anybody remotely diverse will prolly bhtfo

[coloradocowboi]

Porter is apparently weighing a Senate run even before Feinstein has announced any retirement plans:

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/01/06/katie-porter-eyes-senate-run-as-feinstein-stays-mum-00076832

Rep. Katie Porter is weighing a campaign launch for Sen. Dianne Feinstein‘s seat — potentially even before her veteran Democratic colleague announces her plans for 2024.

Fresh off a bruising battleground reelection win, the third-term Porter is now considering a bid for what is likely to be an open Senate seat in deep-blue California as a next step, according to five Democrats familiar with her plans. Feinstein is widely expected to retire after her current term, but she isn’t making any firm moves yet ahead of what’s expected to be an official announcement within the next couple months.

It will play to Barbara Lee's advantage, and the article makes it sound like she is likely to run. Porter should prolly have just stayed in her House seat at this point :/

[coloradocowboi]

Porter is apparently weighing a Senate run even before Feinstein has announced any retirement plans:

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/01/06/katie-porter-eyes-senate-run-as-feinstein-stays-mum-00076832

Rep. Katie Porter is weighing a campaign launch for Sen. Dianne Feinstein‘s seat — potentially even before her veteran Democratic colleague announces her plans for 2024.

Fresh off a bruising battleground reelection win, the third-term Porter is now considering a bid for what is likely to be an open Senate seat in deep-blue California as a next step, according to five Democrats familiar with her plans. Feinstein is widely expected to retire after her current term, but she isn’t making any firm moves yet ahead of what’s expected to be an official announcement within the next couple months.

It will play to Barbara Lee's advantage, and the article makes it sound like she is likely to run. Porter should prolly have just stayed in her House seat at this point :/

Barbara Lee is 76 today and 78 in 2024. Dianne Feinstein is 89 today and 91 in 2024. Why should California replace someone very old with someone old?

I’m agnostic about all of that. We’re also replacing a white oligarch with Alzheimer’s with a black woman who was the sole vote against the Afghanistan war. I’m not a single issue voter on age and neither is anyone I know.

There are also complicated racial dynamics and equity dynamics. Tbh I think Lee is probably even more progressive than Porter. She’s also very dynamic and likeable. There is also the fact that NorCal punches above its weight in statewide primaries, generally speaking.

I also could see her flaming out maybe, but I dk if I would bet on it is all I’m saying.

[coloradocowboi]

Barbara Lee being talked about as a serious candidate is...surprising. She's 76 now and she'd be 78 at the time of the election, which would make her the oldest elected freshman in history. I'd vote for her if she were to run, I suppose, but her running doesn't really make any sense except from a pure identity politics perspective.

Isn't California currently experiencing a massive and rare natural disaster? Seems like this launch could and should have been delayed.

I don't really think so? It's been raining hard and I guess it's raining hard in the south too, but it's not clear to me that this is worse than the last big storm, which was in October 2021.

It's bad in Los Angeles, to the extent that I expect serious property damage for constituents in Porter's district if it's anything like here. All the discourse is political posturing, but her announcement does seem poorly timed.

To answer your above question, with all due respect you are really selling short Barbara Lee. She's not just some Black Congresswoman. She's an icon on the left, an AOC long before anyone like that was in Congress, the sole voice of reason in the lead up to our failed and $2 trillion invasion of Afghanistan, one of the only Reps to vote against the train strike being unlawfully ended.

Porter's poll is probably underestimating Barbara Lee. Ultimately, I doubt she gets in because of her age. But it is upsetting to see how she's getting treated by the media and party. She is what Katie Porter pretends to be, and yes she also happens to be a Black woman.

If Lee runs, she will run up the margins in Black communities, probably play well in Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, and SF, and very likely win over the actual left (not PCCC, but more DSA types). I would be almost certain to vote for her, and I imagine the other 100,000 members of DSA LA would also vote pretty in unison on that.

Katie Porter has released two polls.
One is a primary poll among “non Republicans” which has her at 30, Schiff 29, Lee 9, Khanna 6.

The other is a head-to-head among all voters which has her handily beating Schiff, with the help of large advantage among Republicans, with over a third of voters undecided.

The primary and general are among the same electorate, so the polling is definitely deceptive, though it’s fairly obvious why she chose to do this.

What I think she isn't counting on is how Republican/centrists votes will shift when giant corporations inevitably spend millions on Schiff's behalf against her. If it comes down to these two, it will be expensive and nasty... but I think that the writing is on the wall.

I also worry that Schiff would play hardball with Barbara Lee too, but it has higher backfire potential there. Either way, Trump antagonist or not, Adam Schiff is a slippery corporate tool and will not get my vote

[coloradocowboi]

Yeah, fair enough. Like I said, I'd vote for her, but I can't see how she'd have enough support to win except on the principle that that one of the senatorial seats has to belong to a black woman. This is, basically, what Gavin Newsom's approach to politics is, and it was in that sense that she was mentioned as a candidate for Kamala Harris's seat a couple years ago. It's tokenistic and unfair, but I don't think that there are any politicians in statewide office who are allowed to be anything but tokens of their particular identity group except Gavin Newsom.

First of all, Gavin Newsom is a puppet that various lobbyists wield, and the most insane thing about his pledge to give this seat to a Black woman is that he clearly had someone in mind (London Breed) who is the exact kind of "token" you are talking about....

But Barbara Lee is gonna leverage his promise and where you are dead wrong is that she's not a token anything. You might not be very familiar with her, especially if you're young. But she is a legend in her own right, and I suspect the above hypothesis that Khanna is being deferential to her is correct.

I think she would perform well in Mendocino, Napa, Sonoma, Sacramento area, all the college towns, all of the Bay Area including and especially Marin (which is a treasure trove of D voters along with SF). There are more people in SoCal, but also more of a likelihood that Schiff and Porter will split the D votes. If it's these three, it's a crap shoot who gets in, and also likely given how they split the vote that a Republican could get in with one of them too.

[coloradocowboi]

Yeah, fair enough. Like I said, I'd vote for her, but I can't see how she'd have enough support to win except on the principle that that one of the senatorial seats has to belong to a black woman. This is, basically, what Gavin Newsom's approach to politics is, and it was in that sense that she was mentioned as a candidate for Kamala Harris's seat a couple years ago. It's tokenistic and unfair, but I don't think that there are any politicians in statewide office who are allowed to be anything but tokens of their particular identity group except Gavin Newsom.

First of all, Gavin Newsom is a puppet that various lobbyists wield, and the most insane thing about his pledge to give this seat to a Black woman is that he clearly had someone in mind (London Breed) who is the exact kind of "token" you are talking about....

But Barbara Lee is gonna leverage his promise and where you are dead wrong is that she's not a token anything. You might not be very familiar with her, especially if you're young. But she is a legend in her own right, and I suspect the above hypothesis that Khanna is being deferential to her is correct.

I think she would perform well in Mendocino, Napa, Sonoma, Sacramento area, all the college towns, all of the Bay Area including and especially Marin (which is a treasure trove of D voters along with SF). There are more people in SoCal, but also more of a likelihood that Schiff and Porter will split the D votes. If it's these three, it's a crap shoot who gets in, and also likely given how they split the vote that a Republican could get in with one of them too.

I don’t think Xahar is saying that Lee is a token, just that she’s viewed as such by the CADP establishment.

Or the public. But I still think that’s an uninformed position. In progressive politics she’s long been a household name.

[coloradocowboi]

Curious to see how much ‘Porter is a loathsome personality’ sticks and how many enemies among Ds she’s made along the way. I’ve never heard great things about her…

I don't think Porter is as extreme a case, but this is almost definitely what screwed up Yuh-Line Niou in NY-10. It definitely does play a role when your colleagues don't like you.

Barbara Lee is, by all accounts, well-liked FTR

I'm not sure about your analysis of Schiff. He alienates as many constituencies as he attracts. It's a very unclear picture.

His pros: he's moderate, he's been on CNN and MSNBC a lot, he's from the vote-rich (but low primary turnout!) SFV and would likely be very competitive in similar places like Riverside, OC, SD, he's very good on the "law and order" issue

His cons: he's an older white guy, he's disliked on the left and the right (which obviously the former matters more in the primary, but Porter's poll suggests may matter in the general with GOP), his larger geographic base is Los Angeles where he will probably still get massacred by Porter and/or Lee, he did worse against Maebe a Girl than he did against a Republican in a higher turnout year

I think both Schiff and Porter, being white candidates in a state where diversity and representation matters a lot (regardless of how ppl in this forum pontificate on the issues), need to run pitch perfect campaigns to make it into the top 2 with either Lee or even a Republican. They will both be overreliant in the primary on swing voters, while Lee, the GOP candidate, and others who may run lock up guaranteed constituencies. There is a lot of risk in their candidacies. Lee can only go up, while they have little room to grow given their colossal name recognition.

In the end, there is a lot left unsettled. Will Khanna go for this? I doubt it. He's gonna run for governor. But what does that do to folks like Eleni Kounalakis and London Breed, who probably don't want to run against him. If Lee doesn't run, I expect Breed will and be very competitive. After all, she's probably as likely to win a Senate race as she is re-election at this point in time. Is there an opening for a Hispanic or Asian candidate? Who does the GOP run and how do they do?

This is gonna be a really fun and wide open race.

[coloradocowboi]

Honestly, I don't care about Lee's age at all here. Even if she only serves one term, it'd be worth it to see her elected to the Senate. She's been an icon to the left for decades and would be amazing even for just one 6-year Senate run.

I'm 100% in on team Lee at this point. Maybe even considering throwing a job app in.

Gross.  It’s bad enough having that nutcase in the House; hopefully she loses the primary and the country can finally be rid of her.

Imagine thinking the only person who called the Afghanistan War for what it ended up being "a nutcase" FYI Soylent Green is made of people.

This. Plus it’d give the left six years to come up with a good candidate in 2030 (Scott Wiener)?

Thankfully, Scott Wiener is going nowhere. Replacing Lee with him would be a major downgrade. I would bet though that she has something worked out with Khanna, given how he is being deferential af to her. And even if he's in Congress by then, Scott will be a lightweight compared to someone like Khanna. Not sure where this leaves the gov race tho

If California Republicans were smart they would throw their support to a moderate dem although I have no idea who that would be.

But the CA GOP will just run several candidates with no shot of making the top 2

It's Adam Schiff, setting up the CAGOP for a real Sophie's Choice of a general election if its Schiff v Porter or Schiff v Lee, as I expect it will be.

[coloradocowboi]

Honestly, I don't care about Lee's age at all here. Even if she only serves one term, it'd be worth it to see her elected to the Senate. She's been an icon to the left for decades and would be amazing even for just one 6-year Senate run.

I'm 100% in on team Lee at this point. Maybe even considering throwing a job app in.

Gross.  It’s bad enough having that nutcase in the House; hopefully she loses the primary and the country can finally be rid of her.

Imagine thinking the only person who called the Afghanistan War for what it ended up being "a nutcase" FYI Soylent Green is made of people.

This. Plus it’d give the left six years to come up with a good candidate in 2030 (Scott Wiener)?

Thankfully, Scott Wiener is going nowhere. Replacing Lee with him would be a major downgrade. I would bet though that she has something worked out with Khanna, given how he is being deferential af to her. And even if he's in Congress by then, Scott will be a lightweight compared to someone like Khanna. Not sure where this leaves the gov race tho

If California Republicans were smart they would throw their support to a moderate dem although I have no idea who that would be.

But the CA GOP will just run several candidates with no shot of making the top 2

It's Adam Schiff, setting up the CAGOP for a real Sophie's Choice of a general election if its Schiff v Porter or Schiff v Lee, as I expect it will be.

Imagine thinking going to war with Al-Qaeda and its Taliban protectors right after 9/11 was the wrong decision.  With all due respect, it is simply a deranged position that doesn’t come close to passing the laugh test.

Why is the notion that we should engage third world countries as equals and not just massacre thousands of their people laughable to you?

I won’t bother arguing with you. The same military industrial complex you are praising also funded and armed the taliban in the first instance. There is nothing funny about it, the people running our military don’t value our tax dollars or human life. Barbara Lee was alone in her bravery to tell it like it is

[coloradocowboi]

I really like Barbara Lee, but we need less elderly people in positions of power. America’s biggest problems stem from the fact that geriatrics refuse to step aside and let younger people take charge. I don’t know how true the allegations against Port are, but even if they are true, I could never support someone who is almost 80 years old unless they’re literally the only option like Biden. Except Bernie of course.

As much as this is true. I don't get how the "representation" argument for young people, which I generally agree with, isn't true for both Black people and women, especially in the Senate?

Tbch, I think the geriatric problem is inextricable from the problem of race and lack of diversity. I wish they didn't have to be pitted against each other here, but when it comes down to it, it's more troubling to me there are currently 0 Black women in the U.S. Senate than the average age, because the latter can be explained unfortunately in part by youth apathy, while the former is almost wholly consequential of social injustice and oppression.

[coloradocowboi]

I really like Barbara Lee, but we need less elderly people in positions of power. America’s biggest problems stem from the fact that geriatrics refuse to step aside and let younger people take charge. I don’t know how true the allegations against Port are, but even if they are true, I could never support someone who is almost 80 years old unless they’re literally the only option like Biden. Except Bernie of course.

As much as this is true. I don't get how the "representation" argument for young people, which I generally agree with, isn't true for both Black people and women, especially in the Senate?

Tbch, I think the geriatric problem is inextricable from the problem of race and lack of diversity. I wish they didn't have to be pitted against each other here, but when it comes down to it, it's more troubling to me there are currently 0 Black women in the U.S. Senate than the average age, because the latter can be explained unfortunately in part by youth apathy, while the former is almost wholly consequential of social injustice and oppression.

In my opinion, there's no valid reason why states like Maryland, Virginia and Delaware don't at least have 1 Black senator and at the very least a Black woman as senator. It's 0 for 6 on both fronts.

Those are Dem-leaning states with high Black populations. But yet, all of the senators from those states are old/older White men.

Southern society isn't gonna recover from Jim Crow as quickly as most think. The fact that Black politicians thrive in Northern States where they are numerically small, e.g. Barbara Lee herself represents a district that is only about 10% or less Black, actually tells you all you need to know. Warnock is the first Black Democrat elected to the Senate from the South in 80 years of Democratic dominance in the Black community, meanwhile New Jersey, California, Illinois, Massachusetts all elected Black Senators.

Maryland in particular is a disgrace though.

[coloradocowboi]

I honestly don't see much logic behind backing Barbara Lee over Porter...they are not that different ideologically and they both are gonna vote same 99.9% of the time. Porter is just lot more younger

Lee isn't an asshole

She’s authentic. And I think she will leverage that well in this campaign.

[coloradocowboi]

[...]
Porter would be the more moderate/centrist option...
[...]

I don't think Porter would fit the establishment's definition of moderate/centrist - she supports both Medicare for All and the Green New Deal, both of which would be considered "too radical" by the establishment (recall that the vast majority of Democratic Senate candidates that were endorsed by Chuck Schumer and/or the DSCC up until 2020 portrayed themselves as moderate/centrist by, among other things, opposing both of these things).

Which is why I wouldn’t be surprised if she, like Elizabeth Warren, flames out under scrutiny. She’s not a natural fit for progressives with Lee in or moderates with Schiff.

[coloradocowboi]

I think they're both great

I just can’t with the “no true Scotsman” stuff. I truly believe both Katie Porter and Barbara Lee are motivated by a mix of altruistic and ego related motives and would be happy to be represented by either. Adam Schiff on the other hand is a hard no for me, especially as his former constituent

[coloradocowboi]

Imagine thinking going to war with Al-Qaeda and its Taliban protectors right after 9/11 was the wrong decision.  With all due respect, it is simply a deranged position that doesn’t come close to passing the laugh test.

It was an utter catastrophe lol

I know… 4000 troops dead for nothing. Between 1 and 2 trillion dollars wasted. Hundreds of thousands of afghans dead or sent packing to Europe. But Barbara Lee Is the “deranged” one for not wanting ceaseless carnage with no goal

[coloradocowboi]

Imagine thinking going to war with Al-Qaeda and its Taliban protectors right after 9/11 was the wrong decision.  With all due respect, it is simply a deranged position that doesn’t come close to passing the laugh test.

It was an utter catastrophe lol

I know… 4000 troops dead for nothing. Between 1 and 2 trillion dollars wasted. Hundreds of thousands of afghans dead or sent packing to Europe. But Barbara Lee Is the “deranged” one for not wanting ceaseless carnage with no goal

There is an open seat for Gov in 26 no one wants to lose the 24 Senate race but if Feinstein manages to won Porter or Lee can run for Gov, especially Porter that's why Feinstein may stick it out because others can run for Gov at least 1 mote term, Senator Grassley is the same age as Feinstein, and he won


Same with Sinema she may stick around because it will be hard for Gallego to run in a 3 way race and he can give the seat to Rs

The gov race is less appealing because whoever runs is gonna have to square up against kounalakis absolutely loaded with real estate developer cash. She will be a ruthless campaigner too. Of all the speculated senate candidates, I see khanna as best positioned to take her on financially speaking and he’s made a few moves to signs he will defer to Lee and run for gov

 I think this is the last stop for all three expected senate candidates, which sucks that they won’t be in the house (except tbh Adam Schiff w/e). Porter will obviously be replaced with someone less progressive, and there is a decent chance Lee will too, regardless of the outcome.

Although I think Berkeley mayor Jesse arreguin probably has her seat if he wants it

[coloradocowboi]

https://twitter.com/MattLaslo/status/1618533683761401856

Go away!

[coloradocowboi]

BREAKING: Adam Schiff officially in

https://twitter.com/AdamSchiff/status/1618626586303160325?cxt=HHwWioDTyb2TwvYsAA...

Endorsed.

It's funny nobody cares to wait for DiFi's "announcement" of her plans.

There’s a decent chance DiFi doesn’t live to make her “announcement”

I was thinking this but didn't want to say it...

The woman is about 10 years past life expectancy. It’s sad, but, combined with her more recent mental decline, she is likely in very poor health. She’s been married three times and has outlived all of them. I truly hopes she can retire and live out her days comfortable, but that’s not a given.

There was a Vox exposé about 5 or so years ago on Congresspeople being prescribed Alzheimer's medication, and rumors swirled one of those referenced was Feinstein. It's sad really, but if you look at her political history and beliefs it's not too surprising that she would end up turning herself into a cyborgian monster to continue advancing her class's interests.

Anywho....

Schiff is probably screwed if it ends up as Dem vs Dem in November right? Seems like Republicans hate him so much they’d hold their nose and vote for Porter. Maybe for Lee too, but keep in mind that she is black.

I would rather abstain than vote for either of them, I feel many Rs wouldn't want to cast a vote for either of them too.

I really don't understand this. You know he was an actual Blue Dog, right? I think, when it comes down to it, Porter is probably only slightly more conservative than Khanna, who is probably only slightly more conservative than Lee. But on defense issues, budget issues, crime, Adam Schiff is clearly and openly to their right for sure.

I mean, I hope Republicans don't vote for him because I think he is not the Senator we need. But I would be surprised if, up against someone like Katie Porter, conservatives didn't give him another look. And he will definitely come round to court y'all!

[coloradocowboi]

With Lee all but certain to run, Khanna still a real possibility, and even Feinstein potentially not retiring by choice, we really shouldn't dismiss the possibility that two Republicans with non-negligible geographic bases (think McClintock, Garcia, Valadao, Issa, Faulconer, etc) lock Democrats out of the general election.

Newsom & the legislature should strongly consider implementing RCV for the primary.

It’s just as likely that no major Republican gets in and they are forced to pick between a half dozen weirdos