California Senate 2024 - Schiff (D) vs Garvey (R)

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Ya know for a state with 40 democratic congressman and entirely democratic state wide officials, there really isn’t any one that has a real star power or that I would automatically endorses. Sure there’s plenty I like just fine, Malia Cohen, Katy Porter, Ro Khanna, Barbara Lee, Ted Lieu, Adam Schiff, Mark Takano, but none of them jump out as an obvious front runner

This is going to be a bloodbath

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Any chance we could see Sydney Kamlager-Dove run? She’s a freshman but has a long track in state politics.

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I’ve heard rumors/rumbling that Porter/Lee have been putting their name out so early in hopes to raise their profile and get nominated to replace Feinstein should she not complete her term.

Also Lee would be a good candidate to balance Padilla, NorCal Pol Woman with a SoCal Hispanic Man

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California Republicans shouldn't even bother

If California Republicans were smart they would throw their support to  a moderate dem although I have no idea who that would be.

But the CA GOP will just run several candidates with no shot of making the top 2

Gil Cisneros maybe?

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a lot of black activists don't trust Katie Porter

Feels like you pulled this one out of your ass, bronz.

Well if I had to guess Porter, whose seat is just 2% black, has very little experience and probably doesn’t know many “black activists”

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The California Democratic Party has a weak bench.

It doesn’t, and at least it can win elections.

You’re right, they have no obvious rising star but they have literally forty congressmen all the state wide offices, and 32 state senators. None are amazing or truly jump out to me, but there’s plenty of very good options

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I really like Barbara Lee, but we need less elderly people in positions of power. America’s biggest problems stem from the fact that geriatrics refuse to step aside and let younger people take charge. I don’t know how true the allegations against Port are, but even if they are true, I could never support someone who is almost 80 years old unless they’re literally the only option like Biden. Except Bernie of course.

As much as this is true. I don't get how the "representation" argument for young people, which I generally agree with, isn't true for both Black people and women, especially in the Senate?

Tbch, I think the geriatric problem is inextricable from the problem of race and lack of diversity. I wish they didn't have to be pitted against each other here, but when it comes down to it, it's more troubling to me there are currently 0 Black women in the U.S. Senate than the average age, because the latter can be explained unfortunately in part by youth apathy, while the former is almost wholly consequential of social injustice and oppression.

In my opinion, there's no valid reason why states like Maryland, Virginia and Delaware don't at least have 1 Black senator and at the very least a Black woman as senator. It's 0 for 6 on both fronts.

Those are Dem-leaning states with high Black populations. But yet, all of the senators from those states are old/older White men.

Southern society isn't gonna recover from Jim Crow as quickly as most think. The fact that Black politicians thrive in Northern States where they are numerically small, e.g. Barbara Lee herself represents a district that is only about 10% or less Black, actually tells you all you need to know. Warnock is the first Black Democrat elected to the Senate from the South in 80 years of Democratic dominance in the Black community, meanwhile New Jersey, California, Illinois, Massachusetts all elected Black Senators.

Maryland in particular is a disgrace though.

Bestie I hate to break it to you but Jim Crow ain’t fully over yet. We have barely recovered from the civil war and the terroristic borderline warlord-esque aftermath of reconstruction and several decades of cutting off our nose to spit our face. I’ve lived in and out of the south and dear god the difference can’t be more stark. If y’all want me to elaborate I can’t but I don’t wanna derail this thread.

In terms of black senators, in the modern era of popularly elected senators only 2 of the 7 elected black senators where in the south. The first was in Massachusetts (which if you don’t know is used in the south as the stereotypical “the north was segregationist too!” state).

There have only been 11 black senators in American history compared to 2,002 senators total, or .5%. I haven’t done the math for senators since the VRA, but rest assured the number is still minuscule. I have done the math for number of congress members compared to population and black Americans were dead last (Lebanese Americans where first go us?). Black Americans (especially American born) have and continued to be extremely untrusted by the electorate to hold high office.

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BREAKING: Adam Schiff officially in

https://twitter.com/AdamSchiff/status/1618626586303160325?cxt=HHwWioDTyb2TwvYsAA...

Endorsed.

It's funny nobody cares to wait for DiFi's "announcement" of her plans.

There’s a decent chance DiFi doesn’t live to make her “announcement”

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BREAKING: Adam Schiff officially in

https://twitter.com/AdamSchiff/status/1618626586303160325?cxt=HHwWioDTyb2TwvYsAA...

Endorsed.

It's funny nobody cares to wait for DiFi's "announcement" of her plans.

There’s a decent chance DiFi doesn’t live to make her “announcement”

I was thinking this but didn't want to say it...

The woman is about 10 years past life expectancy. It’s sad, but, combined with her more recent mental decline, she is likely in very poor health. She’s been married three times and has outlived all of them. I truly hopes she can retire and live out her days comfortable, but that’s not a given.

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Schiff is probably screwed if it ends up as Dem vs Dem in November right? Seems like Republicans hate him so much they’d hold their nose and vote for Porter. Maybe for Lee too, but keep in mind that she is black.

Dem vs Dem with two Southern California Dems seems highly unlikely to me; seeing as the state establishment will almost certainly oppose both.

I’m not so sure. Four years ago definitely, but the center of power in the Democratic Party is currently an open question. Los Angeles pols have seen a lot of high profile wins, like with Padilla, and Weber

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With Lee all but certain to run, Khanna still a real possibility, and even Feinstein potentially not retiring by choice, we really shouldn't dismiss the possibility that two Republicans with non-negligible geographic bases (think McClintock, Garcia, Valadao, Issa, Faulconer, etc) lock Democrats out of the general election.

Newsom & the legislature should strongly consider implementing RCV for the primary.

Newsom would be the last one to push for RCV, he voted it when he was mayor of San Fran

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Why do republicans hate adam schiff so much compared to other democrats who are to his left ?

Adam Schiff was the impeachment manager.

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I’m surprised there’s no big name in the Armenia community being thrown around for Schiff’s seat considering the massive amount of Armenians there.

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Schiff and Lee are my top choices. Porter is far back.

IMO NorCal always wins for some reason, and with Porter and Schiff split the southern California vote we could get Lee/Porter or Lee/Schiff. On the other hand, Porter might split the progressive vote with Lee while Schiff consolidates the establishment. It probably evens out to each of them having the same chance at making the runoff.

Historically that was true because that’s where the largest and wealthiest democratic base was. Not to mention that most of the SoCal vote was minorities. Recently however SoCal has become a massive democratic base in its own right and minority candidates can and have been winning state wide. The political center has been shifting south

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While we're here, I do want to address this:

Not to mention that most of the SoCal vote was minorities.

The unjustified notion that the Bay Area is white is a topic that has come up time and time again:

You are right but that isn't what I was claiming at all. I was stating that, through the 1980s to the 2000s part of the reason the Democratic Party elected so many Bay Area polls is that it had democratic whites. Today the Bay Area is incredibly diverse, one of the most diverse in the country and it thrives in part of that. This is exhibitied in the fact that the two biggest NoCal candidates are both minorities. But back then it was much more white then then SoCal.

Looking at this data from Pew you can see that the Bay Area had 3,000,000 less Hispanics then Los Angeles County alone.


This phenomenonis not unique to California. New York, and much of the south at the time had Democratic parties that would be reliant on minority voters but deeply unwilling to put forward minority candidates until the last 5-10 years.

Now I didn't look at Asian American voters because, across America this same unwillingness doesn't hold true. You had Asian American candidates being nominated such as S. I. Hayakawa, and Mary Fong Eu in California, and S. B. Woo in Delaware, and George Locke in Washington.

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I'm trying to figure out why Adam Schiff, turning 64 y.o. in 2024, is going to run for the Senate after he's served 24 years in the House. Does he plan to only serve two terms in the Senate if he wins? Three terms, max?

Adam Schiff isn’t the oldest candidate. Barbara Lee is 76

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Who the hell cares about Nina Turner? She’s not relevant anymore.

And we are all better for that

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Feinstein still a possibility? Heck, I almost want her to run at this point just to see how she gets embarrassed in a fifth or sixth place finish.

If Feinstein runs I think she’ll become the de facto Republican candidate should no big names jump in.

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Feinstein still a possibility? Heck, I almost want her to run at this point just to see how she gets embarrassed in a fifth or sixth place finish.

If Feinstein runs I think she’ll become the de facto Republican candidate should no big names jump in.

Didn't Republicans hate her with passion for some reason for several years?

Probably? But between her and Schiff or Porter she’s the most conservative and probably has the least hate among republicans. Porter is despised as a “young” progressive woman and Warren protege, Schiff was the tip of the spear during the trump impeachment so he’s a persona non grata. Feinstein is the least objectionable

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The chair of the California Progressive Caucus says that in the Summer or early fall of this year, they will encourage all the progressive candidates besides the one that has the best chance of winning or has run the best campaign to drop out.

Like they have that kind of pull. Every candidate thinks they have the best chance of winning and are not going to bow to the whims of a handful of activists.

Well if it get into late fall and you have polling in the single digits and poor fundraising it becomes a lot easier to coalesce, like what happened with Biden

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Do we know if it’s the same Jimmy Gomez?

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Do we know if it’s the same Jimmy Gomez?

The listed treasurer, Mary Hodge, has the same name as the Congressman's wife, so presumably.

Then it’s probably him. I just remembered the Raul Ruiz vs. Raul Ruiz from 2020

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I just remembered the Raul Ruiz vs. Raul Ruiz from 2020

Has this really happened? A Democratic primary between candidates with the same name? Can't find it on Ballotpedia.

It wasn’t a democratic primary but California’s blanket primary. You had the incumbent democrat, Raul Ruiz, and another guy running as a republican named Raul Ruiz. It also happened in 2018 in Kansas where Ron Estes faced another guy named Ron Estes which lead to a court battle over how the ballot should be written.

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I think Lee would make a good one, two term senator.

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I think Lee would make a good one, two term senator.

Two terms would make her 90 at the end of the 2nd term. After seeing Sen Feinstein's decline do Californians really want a nonagenarian Senator? Honestly if I lived in California Lee's current age would be a strike against her for me in the 2024 election.

One term for Lee it is. It sucks shes so old cause of the candidates present I’d pick her