California Senate 2024 - Schiff (D) vs Garvey (R)

[Хahar 🤔]

Ever since the introduction of the top-two system after the 2010 election, California has not had competitive statewide elections. For much of the last decade we got plenty of statewide elections between two Democrats, but that has ended also as Gavin Newsom has taken firm control of the state Democratic party. Typically nowadays there is only one candidate, the Newsom candidate, and everyone else is totally locked out of the money needed to run a real campaign unless they can self-fund.

Things should be different for the 2024 Senate election. I don't expect Dianne Feinstein to run for reelection (her declining the office of president pro tempore is a sign that even her people realize now that she's no longer fit to hold office) and even if she were to run I doubt that she would win. Normally when an officeholder changes for a statewide elected position, Gavin Newsom finds a way to appoint one of his people to fill it and then run for a full term essentially uncontested, but it doesn't seem likely that that'll happen this time. This means that we'll get a real election where we might even have multiple candidates with a shot. (None of those candidates will be Republicans.)

The last two D vs. D Senate elections in California featured a San Francisco politician with the backing of the establishment (Harris, Feinstein) against a no-hope Southern California candidate (Sánchez, de León). Both of the latter two candidates were doomed because they lacked both name recognition and access to money. There are very few politicians in California who have both, which limits the potential field quite a bit. There are two candidates who seem to me to definitely have both the ability and the ambition to mount a serious campaign this time around.

The first is Ro Khanna, who represents the Asian district around San Jose. Khanna is in tight with Gavin Newsom (who endorsed his congressional campaigns against Mike Honda), he has proximity to tech money, and he had a leading role in the Bernie Sanders campaign in 2020 as it won California. The second is Katie Porter of Orange County. My sense is that she doesn't have any real Sacramento connections, which ordinarily would make raising money difficult, but her profile among resistance liberals is such that she can probably raise an unlimited sum from small donors. (The only concern here is whether small donors would be interested in funding a campaign against another Democrat.)

In the event of a general election between Khanna and Porter, one would think that Republican voters would naturally become a key constituency. (They weren't in the race between Harris and Sánchez, and their support for de León against Feinstein didn't matter, but in neither of these cases did anyone seriously think that the result of the election was in question.) Khanna's personality is such that he genuinely believes that he should be able to appeal to everyone and get everyone to agree with him, which you can see in the way that he talks about his friendships with Republicans. Based on this, I would expect him to make real efforts to ingratiate himself to Republican voters. This could work and give him a big victory, but it could also backfire spectacularly. I'd be really interested in seeing how this campaign would turn out.

[NewYorkExpress]

I don't think anyone in the Congressional delegation runs against Feinstein, quite honestly.

I would look at current and recent statewide downballot officeholders as the likely Feinstein opponents in 2024. So, Kounlakis, possibly Becerra if he decides to leave the Cabinet, also probably Ma and Yee seem like plausible candidates in 2024.

[😥]

I would say two things: first, this is going to be a very interesting race. Second, I just hope the next Senator from California isn't Ro Khanna

[coloradocowboi]

I don't think anyone in the Congressional delegation runs against Feinstein, quite honestly.

I would look at current and recent statewide downballot officeholders as the likely Feinstein opponents in 2024. So, Kounlakis, possibly Becerra if he decides to leave the Cabinet, also probably Ma and Yee seem like plausible candidates in 2024.

Kounalakis and Feinstein are both NorCal machine politicians. Eleni wouldn't jump in the primary because she wants Feinstein's donors in the case of an open governor election (which is what she is planning to go for at any rate). It's also been long rumored that Khanna would rather be governor than Senator, and he would be unlikely to primary Feinstein for similar reasons to Eleni.

Porter and Schiff, on the other hand, have nothing to lose and will probably jump into this race no matter what. I personally don't think Feinstein ultimately runs. Things like debates and cutting commercials will embarass and doom her campaign. She's got like dementia and s***

In the likely event Feinstein doesn't run, I expect London Breed to make a vain, quixotic, identity politics and white liberal grievance campaign with Bloomberg money. There's an opening for another NorCal politician, but I dk who. Barbara Lee is too old. Nobody else really has the profile

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

I don't expect Dianne Feinstein to run for reelection (her declining the office of president pro tempore is a sign that even her people realize now that she's no longer fit to hold office) and even if she were to run I doubt that she would win.

When did she decline President Pro Tempore?

[Oryxslayer]

I don't think anyone in the Congressional delegation runs against Feinstein, quite honestly.

I would look at current and recent statewide downballot officeholders as the likely Feinstein opponents in 2024. So, Kounlakis, possibly Becerra if he decides to leave the Cabinet, also probably Ma and Yee seem like plausible candidates in 2024.

Kounalakis and Feinstein are both NorCal machine politicians. Eleni wouldn't jump in the primary because she wants Feinstein's donors in the case of an open governor election (which is what she is planning to go for at any rate). It's also been long rumored that Khanna would rather be governor than Senator, and he would be unlikely to primary Feinstein for similar reasons to Eleni.

Porter and Schiff, on the other hand, have nothing to lose and will probably jump into this race no matter what. I personally don't think Feinstein ultimately runs. Things like debates and cutting commercials will embarass and doom her campaign. She's got like dementia and s***

In the likely event Feinstein doesn't run, I expect London Breed to make a vain, quixotic, identity politics and white liberal grievance campaign with Bloomberg money. There's an opening for another NorCal politician, but I dk who. Barbara Lee is too old. Nobody else really has the profile

I think the most prominent Bay Area politician who isn't serving in Sacramento at this point, and is not on the retirement list themselves (looking at you congressional delegation) is San Francisco State Senator Scott Wiener. He however is aligned with the change/progressive wing and would almost certainly step aside for Porter.

My shortlist right now for the potential clowncar is honestly mostly outer SoCal politicos, which is unusual but understandable since most of the Bay Area is currently represented by 90s era politicians, and a bunch of Los Angeles politicians just got entangled by the city council scandals. Barragan, Porter, Schiff, Sanchez, and Khanna are the congressional reps who seem to have interest around them, but Swalwell certainly has ambition as seem by 2020. Then there is the statewide row officers, mayors and ex-mayors, and others without an office but egos and money found in Silicon Valley.

[pikachu]

I don't think anyone in the Congressional delegation runs against Feinstein, quite honestly.

I would look at current and recent statewide downballot officeholders as the likely Feinstein opponents in 2024. So, Kounlakis, possibly Becerra if he decides to leave the Cabinet, also probably Ma and Yee seem like plausible candidates in 2024.

Kounalakis and Feinstein are both NorCal machine politicians. Eleni wouldn't jump in the primary because she wants Feinstein's donors in the case of an open governor election (which is what she is planning to go for at any rate). It's also been long rumored that Khanna would rather be governor than Senator, and he would be unlikely to primary Feinstein for similar reasons to Eleni.

Porter and Schiff, on the other hand, have nothing to lose and will probably jump into this race no matter what. I personally don't think Feinstein ultimately runs. Things like debates and cutting commercials will embarass and doom her campaign. She's got like dementia and s***

In the likely event Feinstein doesn't run, I expect London Breed to make a vain, quixotic, identity politics and white liberal grievance campaign with Bloomberg money. There's an opening for another NorCal politician, but I dk who. Barbara Lee is too old. Nobody else really has the profile

I think the most prominent Bay Area politician who isn't serving in Sacramento at this point, and is not on the retirement list themselves (looking at you congressional delegation) is San Francisco State Senator Scott Wiener. He however is aligned with the change/progressive wing and would almost certainly step aside for Porter.

My shortlist right now for the potential clowncar is honestly mostly outer SoCal politicos, which is unusual but understandable since most of the Bay Area is currently represented by 90s era politicians, and a bunch of Los Angeles politicians just got entangled by the city council scandals. Barragan, Porter, Schiff, Sanchez, and Khanna are the congressional reps who seem to have interest around them, but Swalwell certainly has ambition as seem by 2020. Then there is the statewide row officers, mayors and ex-mayors, and others without an office but egos and money found in Silicon Valley.

Fwiw, Politico (and other sources I've read) said he wants Pelosi's sets.

[Sestak]

Yeah, Weiner is a much more realistic choice for the San Francisco House seat than the Senate.

[Canis]

I've heard rumblings about London Breed and Katie Porter. I think the most likely DvD race is Breed vs Porter because Porter is popular and charismatic and could probably pull enough votes in socal to make the general. Schiff could give it a go too but I think he wants to stay in the house and go for State AG or something someday.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I've heard rumblings about London Breed and Katie Porter. I think the most likely DvD race is Breed vs Porter because Porter is popular and charismatic and could probably pull enough votes in socal to make the general. Schiff could give it a go too but I think he wants to stay in the house and go for State AG or something someday.

London Breed isn't running

[SnowLabrador]

Am I the only one here who expects Feinstein to run?

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Am I the only one here who expects Feinstein to run?

Yes.

[Sir Mohamed]

Am I the only one here who expects Feinstein to run?

Tbh, I wouldn't bet against her. I'll support any Dems that runs against her. She should resign... like tomorrow. Should actually have retired in 2012 already.

[John Dule]

I would say two things: first, this is going to be a very interesting race. Second, I just hope the next Senator from California isn't Ro Khanna

What's wrong with Khanna in your mind? He's a pretty standard Democrat from what I know.

[😥]

I would say two things: first, this is going to be a very interesting race. Second, I just hope the next Senator from California isn't Ro Khanna

What's wrong with Khanna in your mind? He's a pretty standard Democrat from what I know.

https://twitter.com/dailyondefense/status/1585010175936700440?t=5VGZN8jThzCf1uhe...

In general, I always considered him to be rather weak in his position on Russia. His support to now-withdrawn letter of CPC to Biden which was a big disappointment and which basically asks to push Ukraine into negotiations and ceding territories, reaffirm my judgment on him. In the Senate there are already some pro-Putin members (e.g. Rand Paul, Josh Hawley), one will be sworn-in on January 3, 2023 (J.D. Vance, who "doesn't really care what happens to Ukraine one way or another") and I don't want this "Putin caucus" to grow any more

[John Dule]

I would say two things: first, this is going to be a very interesting race. Second, I just hope the next Senator from California isn't Ro Khanna

What's wrong with Khanna in your mind? He's a pretty standard Democrat from what I know.

In general, I always considered him to be rather weak in his position on Russia. His support to now-withdrawn letter of CPC to Biden which was a big disappointment and which basically asks to push Ukraine into negotiations and ceding territories, reaffirm my judgment on him. In the Senate there are already some pro-Putin members (e.g. Rand Paul, Josh Hawley), one will be sworn-in on January 3, 2023 (J.D. Vance, who "doesn't really care what happens to Ukraine one way or another") and I don't want this "Putin caucus" to grow any more

Ah, ok-- I should've guessed. If he had just asked for negotiations then I'd be ok with that; even if they don't go anywhere, it's important to at least give Putin the feeling that he has a way out of this so that he doesn't go ballistic. Pushing Zelensky to actually cede territory is disqualifying though IMO.

[😥]

I would say two things: first, this is going to be a very interesting race. Second, I just hope the next Senator from California isn't Ro Khanna

What's wrong with Khanna in your mind? He's a pretty standard Democrat from what I know.

In general, I always considered him to be rather weak in his position on Russia. His support to now-withdrawn letter of CPC to Biden which was a big disappointment and which basically asks to push Ukraine into negotiations and ceding territories, reaffirm my judgment on him. In the Senate there are already some pro-Putin members (e.g. Rand Paul, Josh Hawley), one will be sworn-in on January 3, 2023 (J.D. Vance, who "doesn't really care what happens to Ukraine one way or another") and I don't want this "Putin caucus" to grow any more

Ah, ok-- I should've guessed. If he had just asked for negotiations then I'd be ok with that; even if they don't go anywhere, it's important to at least give Putin the feeling that he has a way out of this so that he doesn't go ballistic. Pushing Zelensky to actually cede territory is disqualifying though IMO.

As a citizen of Ukraine, I really do not like the idea of negotiations with Russia. And I still consider them impossible, because Putin's idea is to destroy the Ukrainian nation and anything related to Ukraine, and he has not given it up, and is unlikely to give it up.

But at the same time, I understand that no matter how much I would like it, Ukraine has no chance of capturing Moscow, so negotiations at some stage are necessary. The result of this war will be decided on the battlefield, and then this result will be fixed on paper by a treaty between the two states, and it will probably be signed by another Russian president, not Putin, from the Russian side. At the same time, Ukraine should not surrender a single piece of its land, we can talk about a certain transitional period for Crimea and Donbas (15-20 years, as was proposed in the spring, during this period of time everything in the said territory will gradually adapt to the return to Ukraine), but there should be no question of surrendering the territories, because, firstly, it would be a dangerous precedent for the world, and secondly, if Russia gets at least something beneficial for itself from this war (for example, the recognition of Crimea), then it is guaranteed after 5-10 years there will be a new attack and a new attempt to annex new Ukrainian territories.

That's why Khanna's views are unacceptable to me.

[coloradocowboi]

Yeah, Weiner is a much more realistic choice for the San Francisco House seat than the Senate.

I have met Scott a few times and he’s very good at self promotion but not so much with actual campaigning, and ever since his last state senate race he’s lost the lgbtq community in a big way too. He’s kind of become a landlord candidate, whether fair or not, and I don’t expect him to win anything at all, including the House seat. SF is in a rough place politically because most of the state still associates it with urban chaos, while leftists in California associate it with wealth inequality. This is also why a London Breed campaign will go up in flames. I’m not even sure she will win re-election.

I think that Porter is basically guaranteed a top two spot if Khanna doesn’t run. It gets interesting to muse about how she would fare against different opponents. The most likely scenario is Porter vs Republican, which she would win. I think Schiff would probably beat her though

[President Johnson]

Hasn't DiFi filled for reelection already? Although that just seems like a standard procedure. Anyway, I hope she goes away. She's long, long past her prime and it was disappointing to have her win 2018 again over DeLeon.

It's possible either London Breed or Katie Porter are the most formidable candidates here. Personally, I'd prefer Nanette Barragan (very unlikely to happen though), Fiona Ma or Eleni Kounalakis.

[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

I sure hope we get a Khanna vs Porter showdown. I genuinely like both politicians and don’t have a clear preference for one over the other.

[Dani Rose]

Regardless of one's feelings toward her (and believe me I have feelings toward her), Feinstein is losing the ability to hold office, and she seems to have the lucidity left to understand that. And to me, Porter is her odds-on most worthy successor.

[Heebie Jeebie]

I think Linda Sanchez would be a great candidate, even though no one else seems to think so.

[😥]

https://twitter.com/sarahnferris/status/1592977190064365568?t=Qf4OUHrtKHLbnv45r2...

[Bismarck]

https://twitter.com/sarahnferris/status/1592977190064365568?t=Qf4OUHrtKHLbnv45r2...

Ah that guy is the worst. I’d much rather have Khanna or Porter.

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/sarahnferris/status/1592977190064365568

Endorsed. One of my favorite House Dems.