California Senate 2024 - Schiff (D) vs Garvey (R)

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/gavinbena/status/1593070360995729408

[brucejoel99]

BREAKING: Adam Schiff officially in

https://twitter.com/AdamSchiff/status/1618626586303160325?cxt=HHwWioDTyb2TwvYsAA...

Endorsed.

It's funny nobody cares to wait for DiFi's "announcement" of her plans.

There’s a decent chance DiFi doesn’t live to make her “announcement”

I was thinking this but didn't want to say it...

The woman is about 10 years past life expectancy. It’s sad, but, combined with her more recent mental decline, she is likely in very poor health. She’s been married three times and has outlived all of them. I truly hopes she can retire and live out her days comfortable, but that’s not a given.

There was a Vox exposé about 5 or so years ago on Congresspeople being prescribed Alzheimer's medication, and rumors swirled one of those referenced was Feinstein. It's sad really, but if you look at her political history and beliefs it's not too surprising that she would end up turning herself into a cyborgian monster to continue advancing her class's interests.

Anywho....

Schiff is probably screwed if it ends up as Dem vs Dem in November right? Seems like Republicans hate him so much they’d hold their nose and vote for Porter. Maybe for Lee too, but keep in mind that she is black.

I would rather abstain than vote for either of them, I feel many Rs wouldn't want to cast a vote for either of them too.

I really don't understand this. You know he was an actual Blue Dog, right? I think, when it comes down to it, Porter is probably only slightly more conservative than Khanna, who is probably only slightly more conservative than Lee. But on defense issues, budget issues, crime, Adam Schiff is clearly and openly to their right for sure.

I mean, I hope Republicans don't vote for him because I think he is not the Senator we need. But I would be surprised if, up against someone like Katie Porter, conservatives didn't give him another look. And he will definitely come round to court y'all!

WTF! I did not know this. How and when was Schiff of all people a "blue dog"? That is a label I would  use for henry cuellar, but not Schiff.

https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1618668776580599810https://twitter.com/jacobrubashkin/status/1618670850890432512

[brucejoel99]

Lee has been consistently progressive and anti interventionist and a term or two in the Senate would be a well deserved capstone to her brave career. Hopefully Porter and Schiff tear each other down all campaign and she can unite NorCal, most of the Black vote, and progressives who value substance over soundbytes.

This is what I've been praying for ever since it became clear that none of DiFi, Breed, or Khanna will be getting in, but I'm having doubts for the first time now in light of Pelosi & that humongous list of Schiff/Porter/Lee's colleagues backing Schiff.

[brucejoel99]

Barbara Lee will be underestimated but probably has one of the highest floors without really doing anything at all. I also expect a lot of the progressive and women of color reps will endorse her and snub Porter. I also see her winning over the DSA vote versus Porter, which matters a lot in LA city and college towns.

Does Lee get the support of CA Black women leaders? Guessing no Kamala, since she has to nominally remain neutral, but what about Breed, Cohen, Waters, Weber, Bass, Mitchell, & Kamlager? Can they manage to swing either the KHive specifically or women & Californians of color more broadly behind Lee, to say nothing of hopefully enough of the SF/NorCal machines & anti-Porter progressives to put Lee in the runoff with Schiff? (Hell, could they somehow even manage to force Newsom's hand into endorsing/campaigning for Lee? Would it even be all that hard to convince him to do so in the first place, since Lee 2024 likely means a likely open seat for Newsom 2030 that Schiff or Porter 2024 likely doesn't mean?)

[brucejoel99]

Barbara Lee will be underestimated but probably has one of the highest floors without really doing anything at all. I also expect a lot of the progressive and women of color reps will endorse her and snub Porter. I also see her winning over the DSA vote versus Porter, which matters a lot in LA city and college towns.

Does Lee get the support of CA Black women leaders? Guessing no Kamala, since she has to nominally remain neutral, but what about Breed, Cohen, Waters, Weber, Bass, Mitchell, & Kamlager? Can they manage to swing either the KHive specifically or women & Californians of color more broadly behind Lee, to say nothing of hopefully enough of the SF/NorCal machines & anti-Porter progressives to put Lee in the runoff with Schiff? (Hell, could they somehow even manage to force Newsom's hand into endorsing/campaigning for Lee? Would it even be all that hard to convince him to do so in the first place, since Lee 2024 likely means a likely open seat for Newsom 2030 that Schiff or Porter 2024 likely doesn't mean?)

I am willing to bet given the historic nature of her candidacy that even centrist black leaders like London Breed will feel intense pressure to endorse Lee. The LA black establishment is pretty progressive though, and I expect all of those names to come out for Lee. I also imagine a lot of Asian American and Latina lawmakers of the feminist persuasion will come out for Lee. People like Judy Chu, Mia Bonta, Eunisses Hernandez, Nithya Raman, and Nanette Barragan are worth keeping an eye on. In general, I also expect progressives to mostly back Lee.

My congressman (Jimmy Gomez) endorsed Schiff already and I don’t understand. In a district like his where identity and progressivism matters, it’s a rly dumb move. But we don’t ever bother with high expectations for Jimmy

I guess that's just Jimmy & Jimmy alone, then https://twitter.com/CATargetBot/status/1620680871929053184

[brucejoel99]

Do we know if it’s the same Jimmy Gomez?

The listed treasurer, Mary Hodge, has the same name as the Congressman's wife, so presumably.

[brucejoel99]

It’s a long way to June 2024

Oh also, *March: state/congressional primaries in presidential years are now held simultaneously with the presidential.

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/teddyschleifer/status/1624172145927684096

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/JeremyBWhite/status/1625876228296294400https://twitter.com/teddyschleifer/status/1625912633126944768

[brucejoel99]

Oh I absolutely agree with you that my pulse is probably among my demographic group which is middle-class, white, gay men. So like you said, I'm sure Porter is gonna floor it with that group considering she's a strong, progressive, female which gay men tend to have an affinity for, at least in my experience.

Some of the only precincts won by Elizabeth Warren in CA in 2020 were in West Hollywood and the Castro. I have a feeling that could happen to Porter. The primary is also only one year away

Inshallah:

[brucejoel99]

What are each candidate's base?

If I were to compare them to 2022; Lee is going to be the Bernie voters choice, Schiff is gonna pull from Clinton, and Porter is gonna pull from Warren and some of Clinton too. She’ll get more of the “I’m with her” women.

Granted there’s been little campaigning yet so this could all change greatly.

Not to mention that Lee also might just have the slight advantage of being able to pull off the impossible:

https://twitter.com/rev_avocado/status/1614077362404196353

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/GregLeeKTVU/status/1628036605729722374https://twitter.com/GregLeeKTVU/status/1628117297201319936https://twitter.com/metzgov/status/1628053364633219075

[brucejoel99]

Does anyone have a sense or prediction for which Republicans will run?

There has not been a serious Republican campaign for Senate in California since 2010. When I say "serious" I don't just mean that there hasn't been a candidate with any chance to win since then, although that's true; I mean that 2010 was the last time that a Republican whom anyone would have heard of at all decided to mount a campaign. Chuck DeVore, the assemblyman from Orange County who finished in third place in the 2010 Republican primary, was far more credible a candidate than any Republican to have run since.

I have not heard any indication that there will be anything but the same gadflies as usual. Maybe there'll be a guy who was in the state legislature fifteen years ago.

I agree with everything here, just will add one thing. With three big-name current representatives running on the D side, all who have created decent tv or social media presence over the past few years, there is a decent chance a Conservative 'influencer' hops in cause they see the opportunity to 'own the Libs' from their perspective. Obviously this would not be a serious play for the office, but more a campaign designed to boost their own non-electoral profile while simply scoring perceived gotcha's on the 'liberal darlings.' Which is to say that everything you expressed it correct, but national GOP grassroots might still end up setting money on fire.

Plus, Caruso may run as an "evolved" Republican-to-"Democrat" again like he did in LA.

[brucejoel99]

Plus, Caruso may run as an "evolved" Republican-to-"Democrat" again like he did in LA.

No, def not. The only reason he ran for mayor of LA was so he could fast track his stupid little mall projects and continue to accumulate real estate capital. He knows he can’t win, and he also knows it’s a terrible job in these times

Idrk, I just figured because of this:

https://twitter.com/AsInMarx/status/1619759266331762688

[brucejoel99]

That moment when there are two Dwyane Johnson registrations.

Which tells you how serious the Caruso registration is. For what it's worth, I'm v into LA politics (and unfortunately work in a roundabout way for Caruso, oops I mean USC) and have heard not even a single rumor.

Hey hey hey, don't claim the Rock as a Californian, he & I literally live & vote in the same county & I need to be able to keep inhaling the hopium that he's about to primary Rick Scott!!

[brucejoel99]

The Veep's network appears to be for Lee here (Barankin being a longtime statewide Harris aide, incl. as her 2016-19 CoS & then outside presidential PAC operator thereafter):

https://twitter.com/david_darmofal/status/1630740108457517056

[brucejoel99]

Does it mean Lee is guaranteed a spot in the top 2? No. But we have a year for her to make her case, and I don’t see her getting less than 20% of the primary electorate, especially with a Kamala endorsement likely in the pipeline

I'd note that a Kamala endorsement probably isn't coming, even in spite of her statewide network supporting Lee, just because the POTUS & Veep will surely remain 'formally' neutral.

[brucejoel99]

With the campaign de facto ongoing already and high-profile candidates in, it seems reasonable to assume Newsom would appoint a placeholder who's not running for a full term in 2024? Who could that be?

It would likely be an African-American woman.

https://twitter.com/gavinbena/status/1646362747171381249

[brucejoel99]

If Newsom want to appoint a senator it’ll probably be Lee. If he wants to appoint a place holder I think it’ll be Shirley Weber

Weber has already filed for re-election in '26, & Newsom is reported as not wanting to put a thumb on the primary scales by delivering an incumbency advantage to Lee (as that would piss off the donor network that he shares with Schiff, DiFi, & Pelosi), so with Holly Mitchell saying no, I honestly do think it ends up being Auntie Maxine's time to capstone her career.

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/joegarofoli/status/1679577142965981184

[brucejoel99]

It's incredibly unprecedented for the third-place candidate and her surrogates to repeatedly demand the seat be given to them in the middle of an ongoing race. Bizarre.

I almost hope Newsom goes ahead and taps Schiff as the party choice at this point.

If Newsom breaks his pledge it would probably be the African American part (cause all his options said no?) rather than the placeholder part at this point.

I mean, he couldn’t appoint Lee even if he wanted to at this point, right?  It’d make him look really weak for being bullied into submission by the Twitter tantrum of some random congresswoman who can’t even crack double-digits in a statewide primary

Yes, but also it appears as though the Black political establishment is also applying pressure on him. Thus far every notable Black female politician has said they won’t take a caretaker appt and many have said he should give it to Lee. So, if he doesn’t appoint her there is a good chance he will just bolster her argument that he’s looking to appoint a token Black person to advance his own interests and not to help Black ppl.

Gavin Newsom has turned a moment of potential strength into a lose-lose situation.

Where's this being reported?

[brucejoel99]

Newsom was an idiot to box himself in like this. California doesn't even have a large black population, so I'm not sure who he thought he was trying to pander to.

He got a lot of sh*t from the Black community & electeds for appointing his friend Padilla to succeed the only Black woman Senator, so he promised "if Dianne's seat opens up under me, it's all yours."

[brucejoel99]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/09/29/newsom-feinstein-senate-seat-appointment/

[...]

Newsom's task has been especially complex because several of the governor’s top potential candidates have been closely allied with Lee for many years and are now juggling high-profile jobs of their own. That includes newly elected Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass, San Francisco Mayor London Breed and California Secretary of State Shirley Weber, who is viewed by many Democrats familiar with the deliberations as Newsom’s most likely choice.

Newsom's office declined to comment Friday about the process or the candidates he is considering, as they insisted that the governor wanted to keep the focus on Feinstein’s career as a "trailblazing senator," describing her in a statement as a "dear friend, lifelong mentor and role model of “what a powerful effective leader looks like."

But frustration was once again rising among liberals Friday that Lee would not get consideration even though she is one of the most experienced Black female leaders in the state. Newsom said recently to NBC News that he would not choose anyone currently running because he did not want to tilt the balance in the open-seat Senate race.

[...]

Newsom has closely guarded his list of potential appointees to Feinstein's seat, which has included some of California's highest-profile Black female lawmakers as well as civic and judicial leaders who will be virtually unknown to the state's voters. His office refused to comment on the list Friday, or the vetting process that he has undertaken, and insisted that he had not yet made his decision.

Along with Bass, Breed and Weber, other top candidates — including Los Angeles County Supervisor Holly Mitchell and Congresswoman Sydney Kamlager-Dove — have fielded concerns from Lee allies who believe she should not be passed over. Angela Glover Blackwell, an attorney and civil rights activist who is the founder-in-residence of the advocacy group PolicyLink, has also been mentioned as a possible pick, as well as Associate Justice Leondra R. Kruger, who serves on the Supreme Court of California. Blackwell and Kruger could not be reached for comment.

Though Mitchell is a close ally of Newsom who is viewed as a rising star within the party, Mitchell's aides previously told The Washington Post that she is fully committed to running for reelection in 2024 and "therefore would not accept an appointment to the Senate."

[...]

[brucejoel99]

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2023-09-29/who-newsom-appoint-to-fill-dianne-feinsteins-senate-term-what-we-know

The top Democrat on the House Financial Services Committee, Waters joined those calling on Newsom to appoint Lee.

"I'm a big supporter of Barbara Lee … who has identified herself as a very highly competent legislator, leader and organizer who has advanced progressive politics throughout her career. You can't find a better committed legislator than Barbara Lee," she said.

"I think there is no better person than Barbara Lee for Newsom to live up to his commitment to appoint a Black woman."

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/Erika_D_Smith/status/1708234887034257708