California Senate 2024 - Schiff (D) vs Garvey (R)

[I’m not Stu]

Isn't Ro Khanna all but certain to run?

[I’m not Stu]

Would the Southern California nominee (Schiff or Porter) win Orange County against Lee or Khanna?

[I’m not Stu]

Who is going to be the Southern California nominee, assuming it's D vs D?

[I’m not Stu]

Khanna is a cuck if his only reason for not running is that Lee would be a black woman in the senate, there’s no Asian men either meaning he should run

I think if I understood what this means, I would probably find it offensive

All the way with Katie Porter, in fact I'm gonna go make a donation to her campaign right now.

This will be her advantage. TBD if out of state donations transform into in-state votes though

I made a $20 donation, I suppose after making dual donations to Warnock & Ossoff in 20 and to Warnock in 22 and having it work out I may as well try my hand at my predictive powers with Porter.  

I still don't think it's going to translate as well as she thinks it does. Out of state dollars don't correspond to anybody's vote here in California though.

I mean I was born, raised and regularly spent many intervals of my adult life in California and have a ton of family and friends there so while I can't vote there anymore I wouldn't say my finger is entirely off the pulse of California (Bay Area) voters.

We shall see as the race develops though, certainly gonna be one of the most interesting elections of the cycle.

May I ask your racial and/or ethnic background?

Because tbh that's a question of great importance. Our v white entertainment and v white tech industries are here, so most images people are exposed to of CA are of ppl like me: blond, blue eyed medium-leftists who listen to NPR and read the news every morning. I have said and will say again that among my demographic, white gay guys (which is btw a numerically v large number of primary voters) Katie is prolly gonna perform well.

But she will have lots of competition among white people, and the battleline there are pretty hardened. White leftists go with Lee, liberals with Porter, and the apparently millions of people who care what Nancy Pelosi thinke with Adam Schiff.

Same with African Americans. A decent number will vote for Schiff because of ideological anti-leftism, but Barbara Lee is gonna win 90%+

What it will come down to is East and South Asian Americans (who Porter has ties with and demonstrated ability to win, I'll give her that), West Asian Americans like Iranians and Armenians, who Schiff has a similar relationship with buttttttt also lean pretty left as a constituency, and, more importantly, Latinos, who comprise a large part of Adam Schiff's district but I think are v up for grabs and poised to be kingmakers here. Most Latino friends I've spoken to thus far have only one opinion rly: f*** DiFi and who cares lol

If the runoff was hypothetically between Adam Schiff and term-limited Garden Grove mayor Steve Jones (R), who would you want to win?

[I’m not Stu]

Is it going to be either Porter or Schiff who wins Orange County (depending on which SoCal candidate finishes in the top two)?

[I’m not Stu]

Would a D vs D race be competitive? What would such a county map look like?

[I’m not Stu]

Would a D vs D race be competitive? What would such a county map look like?

2018 was reasonably competitive was it not? That was Harris v Padilla IRCC.

No. 2018 was Feinstein vs de Leon. Would Katie Porter win Orange County in a runoff against Barbara Lee?

[I’m not Stu]

What are each candidate's base?

[I’m not Stu]

What would a Lee vs Porter map look like?

[I’m not Stu]

Will ethnic composition of each county play a factor?

[I’m not Stu]

If Lee drops out, does Ro Khanna get in?

[I’m not Stu]

Would Porter win Orange County (her home county) in a runoff against Lee, or would Porter lose OC like Marco Rubio lost Florida in the 2016 GOP presidential primary?

[I’m not Stu]

Will Porter do well with Chinese-Americans and Vietnamese-Americans in Orange County, especially because they're fairly large minority groups in CA-47?

[I’m not Stu]

Would Porter do well with OC Democrats?

[I’m not Stu]

Where would Barbara Lee do well in Southern California (if she does well in any SoCal region)?

[I’m not Stu]

Does Lee win wine aunts from Riverside???

I know this is a joke, but this is a v Republican demo anyway.

Where would Barbara Lee do well in Southern California (if she does well in any SoCal region)?

She will do extremely well in L.A. City, and very well in Long Beach and some of the northern burbs like Pasadena and Burbank. San Diego is a gigantic question mark amidst all of this, and is being LA-ified as we speak.

Would Orange County (largely white, Hispanic, and Asian) go to Porter or Schiff?

[I’m not Stu]

Does Lee win wine aunts from Riverside???

I know this is a joke, but this is a v Republican demo anyway.

Where would Barbara Lee do well in Southern California (if she does well in any SoCal region)?

She will do extremely well in L.A. City, and very well in Long Beach and some of the northern burbs like Pasadena and Burbank. San Diego is a gigantic question mark amidst all of this, and is being LA-ified as we speak.

Would Orange County (largely white, Hispanic, and Asian) go to Porter or Schiff?

I assume a Republican will win OC on the first ballot, given how the Dems are gonna split the vote and how OC isn't really democratic anyway. Could see Porter winning if their main candidate is some clown like Larry Elder though

What about the second ballot?

[I’m not Stu]

First ballot is so crowded. Who would win OC on second ballot, if it's D vs D?

[I’m not Stu]

First non-internal poll? From the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies.


LA Times: Schiff, Porter in tight race to replace Sen. Feinstein, poll shows; others trail far behind

The race to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein is shaping up to be a close contest between two congressional colleagues who have built national profiles and potent fundraising operations but appeal to different generations of Democratic voters, according to a new UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll co-sponsored by the Los Angeles Times.

About 4 in 10 registered Democrats and nonpartisan voters in the survey said they hadn’t made up their minds on a candidate, so the race still has plenty of room to shift between now and the March 2024 primary [...]

Schiff has the support of 22%, with 20% backing Porter, 6% for Lee and 4% for Khanna, the poll found.[...]

Because no prominent Republican has gotten into the 2024 race — or even publicly discussed entering it — this poll questioned only Democrats and nonpartisan voters about the contest.

Despite being well-known in their respective districts, the candidates will need to do a lot of work to boost their prominence, the poll showed. Each of the four hopefuls was viewed favorably by voters, but huge swaths didn’t know enough to have an opinion of them. That was especially true for Khanna and Lee, who both drew blanks from more than 6 in 10 voters.

Other tidbits from the article:

- Scbiff leads Porter 42 - 17 among voters 65 and older
- Schiff leads Porter 27 - 19 among voters 50 - 64
- Porter leads Schiff 20 - 8 among voters 40 and under
- Porter holds big leads in OC and the Inland Empire. Schiff leads slightly in SF Bay, Central Coast and Central Valley. LA and San Diego are up in the air.

Does Porter win Vietnamese-Americans?

[I’m not Stu]

I imagine Porter does well in Orange County, as one poll indicated. I don't believe she will flop in Orange County like Marco Rubio flopped in Florida in the 2016 GOP presidential primary.

[I’m not Stu]

Porter's a Progressive Caucus member, but I'd still be called a blue dog conservadem here for voting for her these days.

[I’m not Stu]

I thought domestic policy was going to be the focus of the race.

[I’m not Stu]

I thought domestic policy was going to be the focus of the race.

It probably will. I don't think any of the three want this vote to be the crux of the election - including Lee, given that she knows she bucked the party establishment on it.

Remember that Feinstein never lost to a primary challenger despite voting for the war in Iraq and the PATRIOT Act.

[I’m not Stu]

California didn’t support the Iraq war. It’s that Feinstein won despite voting for it. What’s next, calling Katie Porter a blue dog DINO conservadem?

[I’m not Stu]

Who will do well in San Diego?