California Senate 2024 - Schiff (D) vs Garvey (R)

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

All the way with Katie Porter, in fact I'm gonna go make a donation to her campaign right now.

This will be her advantage. TBD if out of state donations transform into in-state votes though

I made a $20 donation, I suppose after making dual donations to Warnock & Ossoff in 20 and to Warnock in 22 and having it work out I may as well try my hand at my predictive powers with Porter. 

[prag_prog]

comparing Biden's 2020 run with Barbara Lee's senate run is not an apt one...Dems didn't have many alternatives in 2020

Weren’t there 26 other candidates in the primary race? There were pretty clearly alternatives to Biden

there were maybe 4-5 out of those 26 who had realistic chance of winning the nomination and among those 5, Biden was polling the best vs Trump. The other options would have been underdogs in general election vs Trump

[Stockdale for Veep]

Still time to implement IRV. A contested primary makes a dem lockout a slightly larger possibility. Seriously guys, change the law before you get burned. 

Are you suggesting moving to the Alaska system, or Maine's system (which would require a return to party primaries, and doesn't use IRV in the primaries), or something else?  Because I'm not sure how this would be implemented to mesh with the Top 2-runoff systems.

No preference. Any party that has a supermajority in a state should not be locked out of the election for simply being too popular.

[BenjiG98]

https://twitter.com/CATargetBot/status/1625976197200105472

[coloradocowboi]

All the way with Katie Porter, in fact I'm gonna go make a donation to her campaign right now.

This will be her advantage. TBD if out of state donations transform into in-state votes though

I made a $20 donation, I suppose after making dual donations to Warnock & Ossoff in 20 and to Warnock in 22 and having it work out I may as well try my hand at my predictive powers with Porter. 

I still don't think it's going to translate as well as she thinks it does. Out of state dollars don't correspond to anybody's vote here in California though.

She isn't gonna win which suits Porter fine she runs up the score in upstate CA while Schiff and Barbara Lee split the downstate vote in LA a Runoff between Schiff and Porter inevitable

Blks have no problem voting for Porter against Schiff in a Runoff

This is extremely confusing. Porter is from OC, Lee is from Oakland. If anybody is gonna dominate the Bay Area, it's Barbara Lee, who to reiterate represents a district that is about 40% white and 40% Asian. She'll prolly pick up endorsements from Khanna and Desaulnier, and perform very well in Contra-Costa, Marin, Santa Clara and San Mateo counties. She will definitely do well in SF, and will likely get London Breed's endorsement.

Beyond this, she will do very well with LA's Black community, and probably pick up endorsements from Maxine Waters, Sydney Kamlager, and Karen Bass. She will also likely be the beneficiary of the DSA-LA voting bloc, which people on here can mock as "only online" if they want, but unlike the vast majority here whose contact with CA politics is most online, I can tell you DSA LA and the unions are v powerful here. Nithya, Eunisses, Hugo, & Marqueece will come out for Lee. I wouldn't be surprised if she ends up winning LA outright like Bernie did, but even if not she will do very well here.

Schiff's base of support in the city is also very tenuous. I think Valley voters will back him hard, and maybe some rich ppl types along the coast. But everything beyond that is up for grabs. I expect him to do well in SF and along the central coast too with wealthy moderates.

Porter remains the one that I think is at a serious disadvantage. Her only saving grace is that she will raise the most money and have the ability to compete for airtime. However, her district is not very vote rich for Dem primaries, and the same can be said for Orange County in general. I also think the institutional left and labor unions are a lot more likely to back Lee than Porter. Schiff has locked up establishment support... So what's her path to the top 2? I think not only is she not "inevitable," she's probably the most likely of the three main candidates on the D side to flop hard. We don't even know that much about her yet.

Lastly, and I keep saying this, all of this is just speculation until we have a better idea of how Latinos vote in the primary. Given their overwhelming support for Bernie in 2020, I would assume Lee does well enough with them to keep Porter out of the top 2.

[Oryxslayer]

SNIP

Three minor nitpicks:

1) You are looking at an outdated district (I think the old SF one based on demos?). Lee currently represents the 12th, which is 35% White, 21% Hispanic, 18% AA, 25% Asian by VAP. But her electoral strength here isn't really relevant because she hasn't faced any serious challenges, and if she did, she easily wins between Berkeley and AA's having a higher CVAP percentage than VAP.

2) Porter's path is the suburban wine mom path, same as many other successful Dems in recent times. Us armchair analysts kinda have a blindspot to this group - which is gaining strength in Dem primaries - since we rush to group things ideologically, demographically, or geographically.  I think this is why people right now think of Porter as the Bay candidate even though she isn't from the Bay Area and Lee is: Porter harmonizes better with the electorate. Anecdotally of course, I know a handful of people (demographically diverse) who fall into this track stereotypes and they are all for Porter, several have even donated and one is gonna join her SF campaign team.

3) Don't expect Khanna to endorse anyone. Expect him to get in lol. His combination of consistently peculiar positions, attraction to the limelight, and silicon valley backers will make the possibility too tempting to resist - even though not many people actually like him.

[Хahar 🤔]

I think this is why people right now think of Porter as the Bay candidate even though she isn't from the Bay Area and Lee is: Porter harmonizes better with the electorate.

Nobody here has yet said this, but it would be really stupid if they did. This only makes sense if you make up a fictional Bay Area that is a white homeland. It has no relationship to the actual Bay Area electorate.

In the actually existing Bay Area, these were the 2020 Democratic primary results:

Sanders 32.7%
Biden 26.9%
Warren 16.6%
Bloomberg 13.6%
Buttigieg 4.3%
Klobuchar 2.5%

Warren finishing with a sixth of the vote does not exactly suggest that real-life Bay Area voters flocked to her, as opposed to voters in the make-believe Bay Area that people like to imagine where the population is 80% white liberals. Maybe "wine moms" would be the predominant demographic there.

Don't expect Khanna to endorse anyone. Expect him to get in lol. His combination of consistently peculiar positions, attraction to the limelight, and silicon valley backers will make the possibility to tempting to resist - even though not many people actually like him.

This would make sense if not for anything that has happened since last November. Khanna has been directly quoted as saying that "my biggest factor will be looking at what Barbara Lee does." The obvious conclusion is that he plans to support Barbara Lee.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

/snip

Serious question: Why the constant harping against Porter? Practically every other of your posts in this thread seems to include a (sometimes lengthy) writeup on how overrated Porter is, how much of a fake progressive she is and/or how you think she'll collapse. You don't talk as much about Schiff even though you seem to dislike him more. Not sure if it comes from being very pro-Lee, anti-Porter or both.

Just wondering as someone who's currently supporting Porter but wouldn't mind voting for Lee or having her as a Senator.

[Oryxslayer]

I think this is why people right now think of Porter as the Bay candidate even though she isn't from the Bay Area and Lee is: Porter harmonizes better with the electorate.

Nobody here has yet said this, but it would be really stupid if they did. This only makes sense if you make up a fictional Bay Area that is a white homeland. It has no relationship to the actual Bay Area electorate.

In the actually existing Bay Area, these were the 2020 Democratic primary results:

Sanders 32.7%
Biden 26.9%
Warren 16.6%
Bloomberg 13.6%
Buttigieg 4.3%
Klobuchar 2.5%

Warren finishing with a sixth of the vote does not exactly suggest that real-life Bay Area voters flocked to her, as opposed to voters in the make-believe Bay Area that people like to imagine where the population is 80% white liberals.

Where in my post did I say anything about Whites? Go ahead, read it back. In fact I specifically tried to go out of the way to mention in my grain of salt that the people I knew who were already for Porter were different demographically when it comes to ethnicity and background. You assumed I meant White, even though I never mentioned it. I specifically pushed back on said demographic analysis, since I am from the Bay Area, what matters here is worldview, perspective and more importantly, personal economic stability.

That all said, the 9-county Bay Area is like 12% Whiter by CVAP than Population and probably a bit more in primary composition. Lots of Young families who got jobs and now settled down. Lots more foreigners who came for the jobs. Demographically these phenomenon are most represented in the Census Asian population. Then there is also the universal Hispanic CVAP reduction. So while the White Bay Area may have vanished two decades ago, there are reasons why candidates who align with a worldview that is stereotypically associated with Whites keep winning, even though they may not and their coalitions are multiracial.

Also, quoting the 2020 primary results is a nice bit of historical revisionism. Buttigieg was out and Warren was both Warren and Klobuchar were collapsing. To vote for them on election day was essentially an act of protest. So all 3 getting about a third of the vote almost purely via the mail seems like a point in my statements favor, not opposition.

I think this is why people right now think of Porter as the Bay candidate even though she isn't from the Bay Area and Lee is: Porter harmonizes better with the electorate.

Don't expect Khanna to endorse anyone. Expect him to get in lol. His combination of consistently peculiar positions, attraction to the limelight, and silicon valley backers will make the possibility to tempting to resist - even though not many people actually like him.

This would make sense if not for anything that's happened since last November. Khanna has been directly quoted as saying that "my biggest factor will be looking at what Barbara Lee does." The obvious conclusion is the he plans to support Barbara Lee.

Do you really trust Khanna? I don't believe anything he does until he does it. The dude is to paradoxically quixotic. I mean this is the guy with this internet meme that seemingly keeps appearing every time he opens his mouth:

 

[Хahar 🤔]

Don't expect Khanna to endorse anyone. Expect him to get in lol. His combination of consistently peculiar positions, attraction to the limelight, and silicon valley backers will make the possibility to tempting to resist - even though not many people actually like him.

This would make sense if not for anything that's happened since last November. Khanna has been directly quoted as saying that "my biggest factor will be looking at what Barbara Lee does." The obvious conclusion is the he plans to support Barbara Lee.

Do you really trust Khanna? I don't believe anything he does until he does it. The dude is to paradoxically quixotic. I mean this is the guy with this internet meme that seemingly keeps appearing every time he opens his mouth:

My position is that Ro Khanna is a rational actor who will not contest this election because the statements that he has made would not be helpful if he were running for this office and would be very helpful if he wanted support for a different office in a future election. Your position is that Ro Khanna is an irrational actor who will contest this election because he's wacky. I'm comfortable with my position here.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

I was really hoping for Ro Khanna to run, but since that's pretty much a goner, I'll be endorsing, and voting for, Schiff.

[Tekken_Guy]

Every major candidate named Adam who ran in 2022 lost their race by a razor thin margin, Will Adam
Schiff be next?

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Every major candidate named Adam who ran in 2022 lost their race by a razor thin margin, Will Adam
Schiff be next?

Maybe. Unless it's a D v R general I don't see Adam Schiff winning a second round. Progressives and Republicans would unite against him no matter his opponent.

[coloradocowboi]

SNIP

Three minor nitpicks:

1) You are looking at an outdated district (I think the old SF one based on demos?). Lee currently represents the 12th, which is 35% White, 21% Hispanic, 18% AA, 25% Asian by VAP. But her electoral strength here isn't really relevant because she hasn't faced any serious challenges, and if she did, she easily wins between Berkeley and AA's having a higher CVAP percentage than VAP.

2) Porter's path is the suburban wine mom path, same as many other successful Dems in recent times. Us armchair analysts kinda have a blindspot to this group - which is gaining strength in Dem primaries - since we rush to group things ideologically, demographically, or geographically.  I think this is why people right now think of Porter as the Bay candidate even though she isn't from the Bay Area and Lee is: Porter harmonizes better with the electorate. Anecdotally of course, I know a handful of people (demographically diverse) who fall into this track stereotypes and they are all for Porter, several have even donated and one is gonna join her SF campaign team.

3) Don't expect Khanna to endorse anyone. Expect him to get in lol. His combination of consistently peculiar positions, attraction to the limelight, and silicon valley backers will make the possibility too tempting to resist - even though not many people actually like him.

1. Okay so Barbara Lee still has deep roots in  a multiethnic and ideologically diverse area. That’s what matters here.

2. Wine moms are an overrepresented and overimaginedly important group, especially in a state like CA. I rly don’t buy that Porter is gonna have an advantage with WOC against one. And she will probably lose progressive voters to Lee. Sure, she’ll win the msnbc watching, wealthy white girl set. But that’s a pretty insignificant part of the primary electorate. And also, having visited family in Marin for decades, I can tell you that your stereotype is: A. Not v accurate, and that’s even in the bay’s whitest county and B. Ignores that many of these women you are stereotyping are extremely involved in local politics and have probably encountered Barbara Lee before and retain a positive impression of her. Specially older women who are more likely to vote.

3. Khanna has already said he would defer to Lee. Presumably that includes endorsing her. Like me and a large number of Californians, he has also said he thinks there should be representation for black women in the senate and that BL would be an excellent choice  

/snip

Serious question: Why the constant harping against Porter? Practically every other of your posts in this thread seems to include a (sometimes lengthy) writeup on how overrated Porter is, how much of a fake progressive she is and/or how you think she'll collapse. You don't talk as much about Schiff even though you seem to dislike him more. Not sure if it comes from being very pro-Lee, anti-Porter or both.

Just wondering as someone who's currently supporting Porter but wouldn't mind for Lee or having her as a Senator.

Harping? I am simply pointing out challenges I see for her as a political consultant and scholar. She made a mistake getting in this race. She’s not a fake progressive, but she’s not a real leftist like Barbara Lee or a Black woman in a political culture where representation matters. I dk who her base is gonna be besides online stan types, and that can backfire badly.

I am gonna put my eggs in Lee’s basket bc: 1. I think she’s the best candidate; and 2. I don’t know enough about Katie Porter yet to want to sign up for decades of her representing me. It’s important to me that my senator not be reflexively loyal to capitalism and American militarism. I know Lee isn’t and won’t be in office long anyway.

As for Adam Schiff, I’ve definitely been way more critical of him as a human being than Katie Porter. He is vile, self centered, pathological, and must be stopped even if that means rolling the dice with Katie. But…. My tune has changed on him because I did not anticipate that the establishment hammer would come down so hard for him, so early on. It is gonna take lots of work to keep him out of this senate seat, and ofc that is my priority #1.

I’m always down to compromise my values. That’s what it means to be a democrat tbch lol. But Adam Schiff has done more for white supremacy than Larry elder could dream of. He has lots of blood on his hands re: the for profit prison system, our adventurous wars, corporate greed. He is the worst kind of democrat, a blue dog and a fake progressive, because he has v few values or morals. He is self centered to the extreme. V dangerous and evil man. Y’all can vote for Katie if you want, but pls pls pls be wary of Adam Schiff

[I’m not Stu]

Isn't Ro Khanna all but certain to run?

[coloradocowboi]

Isn't Ro Khanna all but certain to run?

No lol. He even said to político he would not if Lee runs. He’s tight with Newsom and imo likely to mount a run for governor in 2026 so he can later try for potus

[gerritcole]

Khanna is a cuck if his only reason for not running is that Lee would be a black woman in the senate, there’s no Asian men either meaning he should run

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Barb Lee isn't gonna win Porter is the next Senator

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Khanna > Lee > Porter > Schiff

[John Dule]

comparing Biden's 2020 run with Barbara Lee's senate run is not an apt one...Dems didn't have many alternatives in 2020 and Biden was polling the best vs Trump among all possible Dem candidates. That's just not the case here...even worst possible Dem candidate will win the California Sen race.

And if that seat MUST be held by a WOC, why not London Breed and not somebody who’s almost 80 years old and would probably only serve a single term?

Here's a good example of a phenomenon I observed recently:

This forum has always been fascinated with the idea of London Breed winning higher office, but there doesn't seem to be any reason there except that she's a black woman and I guess not everyone here can name other black female politicians in California.

This is called Kamala Harris Syndrome, but that's not the case here. London Breed is awesome. Still, she should stay in SF. She's not done hosing down the homeless yet.

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

All the way with Katie Porter, in fact I'm gonna go make a donation to her campaign right now.

This will be her advantage. TBD if out of state donations transform into in-state votes though

I made a $20 donation, I suppose after making dual donations to Warnock & Ossoff in 20 and to Warnock in 22 and having it work out I may as well try my hand at my predictive powers with Porter.  

I still don't think it's going to translate as well as she thinks it does. Out of state dollars don't correspond to anybody's vote here in California though.

I mean I was born, raised and regularly spent many intervals of my adult life in California and have a ton of family and friends there so while I can't vote there anymore I wouldn't say my finger is entirely off the pulse of California (Bay Area) voters.

We shall see as the race develops though, certainly gonna be one of the most interesting elections of the cycle.

[I’m not Stu]

Would the Southern California nominee (Schiff or Porter) win Orange County against Lee or Khanna?

[BenjiG98]

Would the Southern California nominee (Schiff or Porter) win Orange County against Lee or Khanna?

Most likely, yes.

[I’m not Stu]

Who is going to be the Southern California nominee, assuming it's D vs D?

[coloradocowboi]

Khanna is a cuck if his only reason for not running is that Lee would be a black woman in the senate, there’s no Asian men either meaning he should run

I think if I understood what this means, I would probably find it offensive

All the way with Katie Porter, in fact I'm gonna go make a donation to her campaign right now.

This will be her advantage. TBD if out of state donations transform into in-state votes though

I made a $20 donation, I suppose after making dual donations to Warnock & Ossoff in 20 and to Warnock in 22 and having it work out I may as well try my hand at my predictive powers with Porter.  

I still don't think it's going to translate as well as she thinks it does. Out of state dollars don't correspond to anybody's vote here in California though.

I mean I was born, raised and regularly spent many intervals of my adult life in California and have a ton of family and friends there so while I can't vote there anymore I wouldn't say my finger is entirely off the pulse of California (Bay Area) voters.

We shall see as the race develops though, certainly gonna be one of the most interesting elections of the cycle.

May I ask your racial and/or ethnic background?

Because tbh that's a question of great importance. Our v white entertainment and v white tech industries are here, so most images people are exposed to of CA are of ppl like me: blond, blue eyed medium-leftists who listen to NPR and read the news every morning. I have said and will say again that among my demographic, white gay guys (which is btw a numerically v large number of primary voters) Katie is prolly gonna perform well.

But she will have lots of competition among white people, and the battleline there are pretty hardened. White leftists go with Lee, liberals with Porter, and the apparently millions of people who care what Nancy Pelosi thinke with Adam Schiff.

Same with African Americans. A decent number will vote for Schiff because of ideological anti-leftism, but Barbara Lee is gonna win 90%+

What it will come down to is East and South Asian Americans (who Porter has ties with and demonstrated ability to win, I'll give her that), West Asian Americans like Iranians and Armenians, who Schiff has a similar relationship with buttttttt also lean pretty left as a constituency, and, more importantly, Latinos, who comprise a large part of Adam Schiff's district but I think are v up for grabs and poised to be kingmakers here. Most Latino friends I've spoken to thus far have only one opinion rly: f*** DiFi and who cares lol