CO-05: Lamborn retiring

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/JakeSherman/status/1743315032794943962?s=20

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Dems should spend money here

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Was wondering about this seat.
He's faced issues in the primary before, not entirely shocking he'd quit.

[Brittain33]

I wonder if Boebert will jump over here.

[Roll Roons]

Dems should spend money here

If a Boebert type gets the nomination, it could definitely be competitive but not with a more generic R.

[Gass3268]

If Trump wins and we still have elections in 2026, this will be a massive toss up seat.

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/Olivia_Beavers/status/1743329745943625931

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

So there’s going to be a completely new slate of COGOP Representatives in 2025 (assuming Boebert looses)

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I wonder if Boebert will jump over here.

She'd have even less of a chance than in the CO-4 primary. This will clearly want a Colorado Springs-based Rep.

[Oryxslayer]

Former HD-15 state Rep and current state GOP chair Dave Williams - elected after the 2022 electoral annihilation that wiped away most of the guardrails within the state party - has expressed interest in the seat. He unsuccessfully tried to primary Lamborn in 2022 (after failing to get "lets go Brandon" listed as his ballot nickname) and got second place with a third of the vote to Lamborn's 47%.

Far from a good candidate, but the ruin of a state party may have no choice in this matter.

[Tekken_Guy]

Former HD-15 state Rep and current state GOP chair Dave Williams - elected after the 2022 electoral annihilation that wiped away most of the guardrails within the state party - has expressed interest in the seat. He unsuccessfully tried to primary Lamborn in 2022 (after failing to get "lets go Brandon" listed as his ballot nickname) and got a third of the vote.

Far from a good candidate, but the ruin of a state party may have no choice in this matter.

He’d likely lose the primary.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Former HD-15 state Rep and current state GOP chair Dave Williams - elected after the 2022 electoral annihilation that wiped away most of the guardrails within the state party - has expressed interest in the seat. He unsuccessfully tried to primary Lamborn in 2022 (after failing to get "lets go Brandon" listed as his ballot nickname) and got a third of the vote.

Far from a good candidate, but the ruin of a state party may have no choice in this matter.

He’d likely lose the primary.

Actually I'd say he's the frontrunner right now. There is a LARGE field of candidates who will likely split the establishment vote in this seat.
Williams has high name recognition, got 33% of the vote in the 2022 primary and will consolidate the far-right vote, unlike in the other Colorado seats.

[jamestroll]

CO-05 gives me mo-02esque vibes. Though in a very different way. Though I believe a Democrat eventually flipping the congressional here is more possible than MO-02.. while conversely Democrats winning MO-02 locally was/still is a bit easier than CO-05. Partially due to the fact that Missouri Democrats have very few gop leaning areas in MO where they could convert votes beside suburban St. Louis.  Democrats already do well in Colorado so hard investment here is less necessary for them.

My early guess in the open will be R+8 in this open seat acknowledging the trend of the area, but still a strong GOP lean with perhaps the CO Supreme Court ruling hurting a bit. If there any part of Colorado that the ruling could help the gop in local/state elections, this is it. The plains are pro -GOP no matter what.

If DRUMPF wins in 2024, I could see this flipping in 2026. Whoever the Republican is next January 2025 won't be as entrenched.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/Marshall9News/status/1744365235916411000?t=-NLheabdRLQ1df38L...

Dave has the party resources,  however minimal they may be right now, since he's currently at the helm.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

https://twitter.com/Marshall9News/status/1744365235916411000?t=-NLheabdRLQ1df38L...

Dave has the party resources,  however minimal they may be right now, since he's currently at the helm.

I think the COGOP is actually in debt…

[Progressive Pessimist]

Quite the enticing opportunity!

[ProgressiveModerate]

CO-05 gives me mo-02esque vibes. Though in a very different way. Though I believe a Democrat eventually flipping the congressional here is more possible than MO-02.. while conversely Democrats winning MO-02 locally was/still is a bit easier than CO-05. Partially due to the fact that Missouri Democrats have very few gop leaning areas in MO where they could convert votes beside suburban St. Louis.  Democrats already do well in Colorado so hard investment here is less necessary for them.

My early guess in the open will be R+8 in this open seat acknowledging the trend of the area, but still a strong GOP lean with perhaps the CO Supreme Court ruling hurting a bit. If there any part of Colorado that the ruling could help the gop in local/state elections, this is it. The plains are pro -GOP no matter what.

If DRUMPF wins in 2024, I could see this flipping in 2026. Whoever the Republican is next January 2025 won't be as entrenched.

There's a decent chance Biden will win CO-05 in 2024. Trump "only" carried it by 10 in 2020, and IIRC Polis only lost it by 2 and in recent years Colorado is a place where Dems keep outrunning expectations.

The issue is the seat has always seemed to exhibit some down ballot lag in favor of Rs - so even if Biden wins it I could see it splitting ticket for even a far right R as long as they don't get too much media. Remember, Boebert outran Trump in 2020 in CO-03

[jamestroll]

CO-05 gives me mo-02esque vibes. Though in a very different way. Though I believe a Democrat eventually flipping the congressional here is more possible than MO-02.. while conversely Democrats winning MO-02 locally was/still is a bit easier than CO-05. Partially due to the fact that Missouri Democrats have very few gop leaning areas in MO where they could convert votes beside suburban St. Louis.  Democrats already do well in Colorado so hard investment here is less necessary for them.

My early guess in the open will be R+8 in this open seat acknowledging the trend of the area, but still a strong GOP lean with perhaps the CO Supreme Court ruling hurting a bit. If there any part of Colorado that the ruling could help the gop in local/state elections, this is it. The plains are pro -GOP no matter what.

If DRUMPF wins in 2024, I could see this flipping in 2026. Whoever the Republican is next January 2025 won't be as entrenched.

There's a decent chance Biden will win CO-05 in 2024. Trump "only" carried it by 10 in 2020, and IIRC Polis only lost it by 2 and in recent years Colorado is a place where Dems keep outrunning expectations.

The issue is the seat has always seemed to exhibit some down ballot lag in favor of Rs - so even if Biden wins it I could see it splitting ticket for even a far right R as long as they don't get too much media. Remember, Boebert outran Trump in 2020 in CO-03

Yes, but the thing is that just because it happened in 2020 it does not mean it will also happen in 2024. It literally just depends on how Democrats prioritize and campaign in CO-05. No, I do not believe that Biden can win it at this time.

CO-03: 55% chance. It will be close and this is bold, but Frisch has legit made a good name for himself.

CO-04- ehh 15 to 20% chance. If BOEBERT is the nominee, you just can’t totally count it out. Could raise to 30% could drop to 0%. It would be Musgrave 2.0

CO-05- Waiting on nominee for Democrats. Right now I will say 30% chance. The trends are real in this district. Williams vs a good dem would be close.

For CO-04, if BOEBERT is the nominee.. I fully expect her to LOSE the Larmier and Douglas County portion of the district.

[patzer]

If he'd been in office for longer then Yemi Mobolade would have been an ideal Dem candidate here, but I can't imagine him deciding to move on from his current position this soon. Definitely a potential candidate in the future if the district stays R this year though.

[Oryxslayer]

Former SoS Wayne Williams not running.

 Currently in are the aforementioned Dave Williams, SD12 Senator Bob Gardner, perennial candidate Radio host Jeff Crank, and Veteran Joshua Griffin. Not the most impressive bunch.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

As far as this election goes talk show host Crank has Speaker Johnson’s endorsement

Also forgot that Lamborn is retiring with the Buck/Boebert affair. This means that every GOP seat in the state is open

[Gustaf]

lol is his name literally Crank???