California Senate 2024 - Schiff (D) vs Garvey (R)

[Хahar 🤔]

Plus a massive number of current and former reps, including a large number of progressives.

https://twitter.com/latseema/status/1621144920009625600?s=46&t=vesBqt1FzrDmE...

The ritual obeisance to Dianne Feinstein is distasteful, but nobody would be saying any of these things if they actually thought she was going to run again or would actually support her. Hopefully we can get that out of the way now and move on to the stuff of substance.

I'm not necessarily saying this is the same thing or will end in the same way, but I'm reminded of Pelosi's endorsement of Joe Kennedy, which had more to do with House dynamics than anything happening on the ground in the state in question. What this list of followers indicates to me is that these are the members of Congress who are aligned with Pelosi first and foremost. Looking at the names, what stands out is how white a list it is. Schiff being a southerner won't do him any good if he can't get the Mexican vote.

The other interesting thing this confirms is something we could have suspected, that Katie Porter does not have a lot of friends in Washington. I don't think that she has a lot of friends in Sacramento, either, but she has a lot of small donors who will probably be motivated to write her checks. Given that no money will be coming into this race with the aim of keeping the seat out of Republican hands, it could mean a lot for Porter to have donors who specifically believe in her as a person.

Newsom and company appear to be keeping their powder dry and waiting for the race to develop. Presumably Khanna will endorse Lee as soon as she declares. It'll be interesting to see if anyone else does; in particular, I'd like to see what kind of institutional support she can get in Los Angeles.

Who the hell are Republicans even going to run? I think this'll end up being a D vs D lockout.

Most likely the answer is nobody. I've seen people make fanciful suggestions that the split Democratic vote could lead to two Republicans making the general election and more realistic suggestions that the split Democratic vote could lead to one Republican making the general election. The former is obviously not going to happen, but even the latter is quite unlikely to me. In both 2016 and 2018, there were multiple Democrats in the primary and no serious Republicans, and in both cases the top Republican got under 10% of the vote. That will not be enough to advance to the general election even if the Democratic vote is split three ways.

Feinstein still a possibility? Heck, I almost want her to run at this point just to see how she gets embarrassed in a fifth or sixth place finish.

If Feinstein runs I think she’ll become the de facto Republican candidate should no big names jump in.

Didn't Republicans hate her with passion for some reason for several years?

Probably? But between her and Schiff or Porter she’s the most conservative and probably has the least hate among republicans. Porter is despised as a “young” progressive woman and Warren protege, Schiff was the tip of the spear during the trump impeachment so he’s a persona non grata. Feinstein is the least objectionable

Leaving aside the Feinstein business, her being "more conservative" has nothing to do with the way that California Republicans vote in elections between two Democrats. There have been two senatorial elections in California between two Democrats, and in both cases Republican areas overwhelmingly voted for the Democrat running the more left-wing campaign. As I've mentioned on this thread previously, Schiff and Porter each could face serious difficulty attracting Republican votes, but that is because they are both cable news personalities. Ideology is not relevant here.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Sadly Khanna likely won't run because it seems he's supporting Lee who's all but declared. I agree with the above poster who mentioned Republicans won't necessarily vote for the more "moderate" candidate in a D vs D race, they'll vote for the less openly partisan one.
So Porter would get more R support than Schiff, and Lee more than both. Khanna would do insanely well with Republicans but since he's not running its irrelevant.

[Storr]

Pelosi has conditionally endorsed Schiff, baring Feinstein chooses not to run.

https://twitter.com/latseema/status/1621137988519620608?s=46&t=vesBqt1FzrDmE...

Plus a massive number of current and former reps, including a large number of progressives.

https://twitter.com/latseema/status/1621144920009625600?s=46&t=vesBqt1FzrDmE...

The fact Schiff is DiFi's choice makes me want to support him even less than I already did.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Really glad to see my Congressman not on that list

[Canis]

https://twitter.com/AmarShergillCA/status/1622266539855724544
The chair of the California Progressive Caucus says that in the Summer or early fall of this year, they will encourage all the progressive candidates besides the one that has the best chance of winning or has run the best campaign to drop out.

[Minnesota Mike]

The chair of the California Progressive Caucus says that in the Summer or early fall of this year, they will encourage all the progressive candidates besides the one that has the best chance of winning or has run the best campaign to drop out.

Like they have that kind of pull. Every candidate thinks they have the best chance of winning and are not going to bow to the whims of a handful of activists.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

The chair of the California Progressive Caucus says that in the Summer or early fall of this year, they will encourage all the progressive candidates besides the one that has the best chance of winning or has run the best campaign to drop out.

Like they have that kind of pull. Every candidate thinks they have the best chance of winning and are not going to bow to the whims of a handful of activists.

Well if it get into late fall and you have polling in the single digits and poor fundraising it becomes a lot easier to coalesce, like what happened with Biden

[Canis]

The chair of the California Progressive Caucus says that in the Summer or early fall of this year, they will encourage all the progressive candidates besides the one that has the best chance of winning or has run the best campaign to drop out.

Like they have that kind of pull. Every candidate thinks they have the best chance of winning and are not going to bow to the whims of a handful of activists.

The progressive caucus is not just a handful of activists we have thousands of delegates elected to the California Democratic party and have major pull and influence when it comes to who the party endorses. If one of the candidates decided to stay in after the progressive caucus has decided who to coalesce around that candidate would lose all support from the caucus's members and their campaigns grassroots and institutional support would dry up which would be pretty bad for said candidate who would also likely be on shaky ground in the first place if the caucus had decided to coalse around someone else.

[Minnesota Mike]

The chair of the California Progressive Caucus says that in the Summer or early fall of this year, they will encourage all the progressive candidates besides the one that has the best chance of winning or has run the best campaign to drop out.

Like they have that kind of pull. Every candidate thinks they have the best chance of winning and are not going to bow to the whims of a handful of activists.

The progressive caucus is not just a handful of activists we have thousands of delegates elected to the California Democratic party and have major pull and influence when it comes to who the party endorses. If one of the candidates decided to stay in after the progressive caucus has decided who to coalesce around that candidate would lose all support from the caucus's members and their campaigns grassroots and institutional support would dry up which would be pretty bad for said candidate who would also likely be on shaky ground in the first place if the caucus had decided to coalse around someone else.

But does the Party endorsement matter in California (honest question)?  In my experience party endorsements are nice but really don't have  much of an effect in most states.

[Canis]

The chair of the California Progressive Caucus says that in the Summer or early fall of this year, they will encourage all the progressive candidates besides the one that has the best chance of winning or has run the best campaign to drop out.

Like they have that kind of pull. Every candidate thinks they have the best chance of winning and are not going to bow to the whims of a handful of activists.

The progressive caucus is not just a handful of activists we have thousands of delegates elected to the California Democratic party and have major pull and influence when it comes to who the party endorses. If one of the candidates decided to stay in after the progressive caucus has decided who to coalesce around that candidate would lose all support from the caucus's members and their campaigns grassroots and institutional support would dry up which would be pretty bad for said candidate who would also likely be on shaky ground in the first place if the caucus had decided to coalse around someone else.

But does the Party endorsement matter in California (honest question)?  In my experience party endorsements are nice but really don't have  much of an effect in most states.

They have an impact but aren't the deciding factors in most elections. KDL getting the CDPs endorsement was huge for his campaign in 2018 and was a big reason he made the GE. But they do have a big impact on close primary races which this election probably will be.

[Minnesota Mike]

For the record I don't have a dog in this fight, any of the major Dem candidates would be fine IMO. I just hope it is not a D vs D general so Democratic donors don't light $100+ mill on fire in the general in race where the candidate differences are miniscule.

[Bismarck]

Schiff will win. See Nadler, Jerry.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Schiff will win. See Nadler, Jerry.

This race in no way, shape, or form resembles that one.

[Bismarck]

Schiff will win. See Nadler, Jerry.

This race in no way, shape, or form resembles that one.

Two congress people running against each other, one of whom is a guy known nationally for being part of the Trump impeachment and the other is a locally well known but nationally less so lady.

[Хahar 🤔]

Schiff will win. See Nadler, Jerry.

Case in point!

One of the issues that I think people have with California is that they map New York onto California. New York and California do have some similarities, but they're not the same at all.

Hopefully people stop doing this in this thread, but I'm not holding out hope. A challenge I'm going to make to the posters of this forum is to stop ever comparing California to New York. You can make comparisons to any other elections or any other politicians in any other state, but just don't use New York. Give it a try! If nothing else, it'll make people's analogies more creative.

[coloradocowboi]

It is wild to see so many from our East speculate so confidently on what none of us here know for sure. Schiff has all the establishment support, and that will absolutely count. How much and enough to make it out of a primary? I dk.

Barbara Lee will be underestimated but probably has one of the highest floors without really doing anything at all. I also expect a lot of the progressive and women of color reps will endorse her and snub Porter. I also see her winning over the DSA vote versus Porter, which matters a lot in LA city and college towns.

Porter is v overrated imo, but she won’t be underfunded and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the state party get behind her candidacy. She can definitely count on white gay votes like Elizabeth Warren did, which actually matters in California

But the two biggest factors: gop candidates and Latino voters are humongous question marks. Until that gets sorted out we are looking at a three way race with support levels in the high teens for all three dem front runners. It’s a long way to June 2024

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

A lot of factors are national. The two main things that stand out are A) as long as Schiff is the establishment favorite and Porter/Lee are both in the race, Schiff has a very good chance at a top two spot, and B) assuming a D vs. D race in November, it'll heavily depend on whether the locked-out Republicans are voting based on politics or petty stupidity. My gut says Lee would be a slight favorite over Schiff while Schiff would be a slight favorite over Porter in November, but there are a lot of intangibles.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Are there any actual notable ideological differences between Porter and Schiff? I can totally understand why people might prefer one but it's weird how some are hyping it up as much more than a personality contest.

[brucejoel99]

Barbara Lee will be underestimated but probably has one of the highest floors without really doing anything at all. I also expect a lot of the progressive and women of color reps will endorse her and snub Porter. I also see her winning over the DSA vote versus Porter, which matters a lot in LA city and college towns.

Does Lee get the support of CA Black women leaders? Guessing no Kamala, since she has to nominally remain neutral, but what about Breed, Cohen, Waters, Weber, Bass, Mitchell, & Kamlager? Can they manage to swing either the KHive specifically or women & Californians of color more broadly behind Lee, to say nothing of hopefully enough of the SF/NorCal machines & anti-Porter progressives to put Lee in the runoff with Schiff? (Hell, could they somehow even manage to force Newsom's hand into endorsing/campaigning for Lee? Would it even be all that hard to convince him to do so in the first place, since Lee 2024 likely means a likely open seat for Newsom 2030 that Schiff or Porter 2024 likely doesn't mean?)

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Are there any actual notable ideological differences between Porter and Schiff? I can totally understand why people might prefer one but it's weird how some are hyping it up as much more than a personality contest.

Yeah tbh Porter isn't even that progressive, she's to the right of Warren but is just good at presenting herself like a leftist. Khanna or Lee are.both actual progressives and would be genuinely some of the best senators.

[Kabam]

Schiff will win. See Nadler, Jerry.

This race in no way, shape, or form resembles that one.

Two congress people running against each other, one of whom is a guy known nationally for being part of the Trump impeachment and the other is a locally well known but nationally less so lady.

Carolyn Maloney only won by 3% with 42.7% in the 2020 primary. She never had a chance against another incumbent and might have even lost against a non-incumbent challenger.

[Blair]

Feinstein still a possibility? Heck, I almost want her to run at this point just to see how she gets embarrassed in a fifth or sixth place finish.

If Feinstein runs I think she’ll become the de facto Republican candidate should no big names jump in.

Didn't Republicans hate her with passion for some reason for several years?

For a certain generation of republicans she was associated with the Assault Weapons Ban & ofc being the 'San Francisco values' Mayor, despite the fact she had a much more nuanced record.

There's a good chance that a lot of these republicans have moved on in both senses though.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Feinstein still a possibility? Heck, I almost want her to run at this point just to see how she gets embarrassed in a fifth or sixth place finish.

If Feinstein runs I think she’ll become the de facto Republican candidate should no big names jump in.

Nope. Republicans would vote for Khanna, Lee or even Porter over Feinstein.
Just like how Democrats usually like a Republican the more anti-Trump they are with no regards to policy, Republicans usually like a Democrat more the less hostile they are to Republican voters or how much they piss off the media/democratic establishment.
This is why in 2020 Trump voters viewed Yang and Tulsi very positively despite at that time their political beliefs being well to the LEFT of the centre of their party. This is because they didn't spend all their time attacking Trump and made an effort to reach out to Trump voters. Even Bernie was way more liked among the Republican base than Biden or Clinton.
Schiff is basically just known for being anti-Trump (and seems to be revolving his whole campaign around it so he won't get any R votes. Feinstein is California's symbol for the Democratic establishment (and is backed by the media, Pelosi, etc.) so she won't get any R votes.
Porter is running a more policy-focused campaign so as long as she sticks to anti-corruption, economically progressive stuff like in her first and and stays away from making her campaign about social progressivism, she might get some R votes (although not too much cause she's a cable TV regular and comes across as a dem hack sometimes).
Lee would win over quite a few Rs because she is not that well liked by the democratic establishment, would not make being anti-Trump the focus of her campaign and doesn't come across as a partisan hack.
Khanna is like a tailor-made candidate to get Republican votes (even if he isn't running). He deliberately often tries.to reach out to Trump voters and has populist messaging, is non-combatative with right-wingers (he's even friends with Gaetz) so is easier to stomach voting for than others, and most importantly he doesn't act like he hates Republican voters which I think a lot of people forget.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Actually Schiff is the de facto R nominee he performance in Northern CA is on par with Elder Porter and Feinstein do very well in upstate CA where Schiff whom is losing Northern CAis down by 11 if he was winning N CA he would be down 3/5 not 11 in the Runoff

Schiff doesn't have any blk support whatsoever what can he bring to blks Blks and Latinos voted for Bass over Caruso that's how you know Schiff does poorly with blks

[coloradocowboi]

Barbara Lee will be underestimated but probably has one of the highest floors without really doing anything at all. I also expect a lot of the progressive and women of color reps will endorse her and snub Porter. I also see her winning over the DSA vote versus Porter, which matters a lot in LA city and college towns.

Does Lee get the support of CA Black women leaders? Guessing no Kamala, since she has to nominally remain neutral, but what about Breed, Cohen, Waters, Weber, Bass, Mitchell, & Kamlager? Can they manage to swing either the KHive specifically or women & Californians of color more broadly behind Lee, to say nothing of hopefully enough of the SF/NorCal machines & anti-Porter progressives to put Lee in the runoff with Schiff? (Hell, could they somehow even manage to force Newsom's hand into endorsing/campaigning for Lee? Would it even be all that hard to convince him to do so in the first place, since Lee 2024 likely means a likely open seat for Newsom 2030 that Schiff or Porter 2024 likely doesn't mean?)

I am willing to bet given the historic nature of her candidacy that even centrist black leaders like London Breed will feel intense pressure to endorse Lee. The LA black establishment is pretty progressive though, and I expect all of those names to come out for Lee. I also imagine a lot of Asian American and Latina lawmakers of the feminist persuasion will come out for Lee. People like Judy Chu, Mia Bonta, Eunisses Hernandez, Nithya Raman, and Nanette Barragan are worth keeping an eye on. In general, I also expect progressives to mostly back Lee.

My congressman (Jimmy Gomez) endorsed Schiff already and I don’t understand. In a district like his where identity and progressivism matters, it’s a rly dumb move. But we don’t ever bother with high expectations for Jimmy

Actually Schiff is the de facto R nominee he performance in Northern CA is on par with Elder Porter and Feinstein do very well in upstate CA where Schiff whom is losing Northern CAis down by 11 if he was winning N CA he would be down 3/5 not 11 in the Runoff

Schiff doesn't have any blk support whatsoever what can he bring to blks Blks and Latinos voted for Bass over Caruso that's how you know Schiff does poorly with blks

This is pretty much it I think. If Schiff can win over Latinos (v doubtful lol), he has a chance of winning. But I’m not sure he will even do that well among white people in socal. He and Porter will probably destroy each other, paving the way for Barbara Lee