California Senate 2024 - Schiff (D) vs Garvey (R)

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

It's Adam Schiff, setting up the CAGOP for a real Sophie's Choice of a general election if its Schiff v Porter or Schiff v Lee, as I expect it will be.

Yeah, I've been thinking about this. Lee is obviously the furthest left candidate, but she's not a contemporary cable news celebrity the way the other two are, so Republicans don't have an active reason to hate her. Obviously the undervote would be massive, but would Republicans vote for Barbara Lee? Given the alternative, I think they might.

I realy doubt that, Lee isn't an unknown. They know she's a pretty radical oakland democrat, unlike Kevin De Leon who was almost unknown outside of LA during his senate run.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Why do republicans hate adam schiff so much compared to other democrats who are to his left ?

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Campaigning like that is unserious and would probably loose the top-two against another democrat if she get's past the jungle.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

California has plenty of moderate but Partisan Democrats which Adam Schiff has a lot of pull with, so far polling has shown him in a strong postion due to name recognition. I don't see any reason to assume that the democratic primary will become a norcal vs socal fight, even Potter's poll show him leading in the inital primary.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Kamala Harris is still technically in the senate.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

From a numbers perspective I think the African American vote is going to be less important in California than it is in other states primaries simply due to how democratic the rest of the state is. AA communites punch above their weight in democratic primaries due to their extreme democratic registration edge. This advantage is lessend in California both because the top-two system functions as an open primary, and the broad democratic lean of other racial groups.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

The black community still punches high above their proportion of them population, and I wouldn’t discount the fact that a lot latinas and other women of color will vote for Lee for similar reasons to black women, e.g. identification, relatability, etc.

Is there any evidence of this happening before, of non-black minority woman favouring a black woman over a white woman all things held constant ?

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

I think it's clear Barbara Lee is suffering poor name regonition( she didn't have the same media presence like Schiff and Porter during the trump era) as well as voters being concerned about her age given what's going on with Feinstein.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

https://twitter.com/maxpcohen/status/1671653796211040265?t=ePlVhEnKDM50zy32grE4b...
This seems a bit of an unforced error, Schiff got a massive contribution from the republicans deciding to censure him. You shouldn't let him paint you as enabling them.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

https://twitter.com/BarbaraLeeForCA/status/1701041279839375670
These comments by Barabara Lee expressing her dissapointing with the descion are both sour grapes and seem to express a contemptous attitude towards the idea that voters should be able to pick their representives and the concept of senators representing all their counstituents not just the ones they share demographics charectersitcs with.

It's one of the most entitltied things i've seen written by any major us politican.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

https://twitter.com/BarbaraLeeForCA/status/1701041279839375670
These comments by Barabara Lee expressing her dissapointing with the descion are both sour grapes and seem to express a contemptous attitude towards the idea that voters should be able to pick their representives and the concept of senators representing all their counstituents not just the ones they share demographics charectersitcs with.

It's one of the most entitltied things i've seen written by any major us politican.

Yeah, that's a bad statement which makes her sound like a bitter person with an inflated sense of entitlement. It won't make her many new friends.

I agree and it basically ends her candidacy, but she’s also right. So Newsom’s goal the whole time was to nominate a black figurehead to pander while still supporting a white former blue dog behind the scenes? Typical of him.

This is all wonderful news for Senator-elect Katie Porter though anyway. The party is trying to rig it for Schiff, but she has crossover appeal and will win progressives handily.

Not Rigging the race for Lee is rigging it for Schiff ? This is an incredibly dubious line of reasoning.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

If Lee does get nominated but fails to win the election that's going to be an incredibly humiliating end to her political career. And I'm not sure incumbency is enough of an advantage to ensure her victory.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

If you have been annoying in this thread, you are expected to fill out this form:



Please have it completed and back to me by noon tomorrow.

Lol Lmao,  talk about being too quick to claim victory.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

To be very honest, People were kinda grossly overestimating the requirments that the Apointee needed. He could have found a NGO leader or an academic with a solid record of being a partisan democrat, and some significant achievement to appoint.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Very serious proposal by a canididate that's definitly got a good shot at winning according to all the "real" california politics understanders in this thread.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Yes, BUT WHY IS IT ONE OF THE BIGGEST ISSUES?

It is a cipher for colonialism. Even my WASP a** understands that. It's not even the best one IMO because after all we are arguing who is more evil: a right-wing racist Israeli government or an Islamic extremist organization that was originally created by the CIA and another right-wing racist Israeli government to halt Fatah's progress and stop the spread of socialism in the Arab world #missionaccomplished

Are you actually a professor, because this one of the dumbest most historically illiterate things I've seen on this forum and is a prime example of why American leftist political thought has so little success. The extent of CIA influence in the creation of the Muslim brotherhood is third order.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Yes, BUT WHY IS IT ONE OF THE BIGGEST ISSUES?

It is a cipher for colonialism. Even my WASP a** understands that. It's not even the best one IMO because after all we are arguing who is more evil: a right-wing racist Israeli government or an Islamic extremist organization that was originally created by the CIA and another right-wing racist Israeli government to halt Fatah's progress and stop the spread of socialism in the Arab world #missionaccomplished

Are you actually a professor, because this one of the dumbest most historically illiterate things I've seen on this forum and is a prime example of why American leftist political thought has so little success. The extent of CIA influence in the creation of the Muslim brotherhood is third order.

I love how you bring no facts, just ad hominem insults and some weird obsession/familiarity with my previous posts.

Unlike you, instead of insults I have sources for my opinions which is probably why I am a college professor and you're just crying about it on the internet.

And this just furthers my point: moderate, pro-establishment people in here whine about how leftists are "out of touch" just because we maybe know something that you don't or have a different perspective. Then you same people ask why we don't turn out to vote or why we voted in Rashida Tlaib. It's cuz we disagree and you can't even fathom the disagreement because of your anger and hubris lol.

Read up on all this and then come back to talk to me like a grown adult. And for the love of God please don't tell me Haaretz or the Times of Israel is a "leftwing biased source" or something. Y'all move the football constantly, which is probably why I'm defending myself from personal attacks and you got upvoted despite saying absolutely nothing of communicative value.

(PS - I have never understood how linking sources works here and have even been moderated for doing it wrong, so hopefully this works but I'm happy to provide sources cuz again I have more than insults and name-calling to prove my point here)

https://theintercept.com/2018/02/19/hamas-israel-palestine-conflict/

https://www.democracynow.org/2023/10/20/divide_and_rule_how_israel_helped

https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2023-10-20/ty-article-opinion/.premium/a-brief-history-of-the-netanyahu-hamas-alliance/0000018b-47d9-d242-abef-57ff1be90000


Finally, I'll just say that as someone more center left than leftist, I have been pushed into a corner on this issue which is exactly why I would vote for Barbara Lee. The notion that somehow you are either pro-Israel or pro-terrorism is the exact kind of false equivalence that turns people off pro-Israel advocacy. I am so tired of Zionists getting an exception to the rules about civility not only on this forum but every day life. Go ahead and insult my intelligence, because if that's all you have to say than maybe you're the one who is historically (or otherwise) illiterate not me

When you post something with the intellectual rigor of an anti-vax or 9/11 conspiracy theory then expect harsh words. I'm sick of this self-victimizing complex that leftists have when called out on blatant lies they spew. I'm not even a zionist or a supporter of israel, but you just make up bs conspiracy theories in an attempt to preserve a binary good-vs-evil narrative .whole claim that the islamic brotherhood was created by the CIA to destroy Fatah's credibility is just blatantly untrue. The founding of the islamic brotherhood pre-dates the establishment of Fatah by some 31 years.

All your links make a different claim that Israel tacitly left hamas alone and hoped to play divide conquer between the palestinians. That's morally wrong and was a horrible idea as recent events show, but that's a very different claim from the one you making that it's some sort of proxy for the CIA or right-wing isralei goverment gone roughe.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Very serious proposal by a canididate that's definitly got a good shot at winning according to all the "real" california politics understanders in this thread.

Why do you think that all the "real" California politics understanders are saying this? Is it because they're stupid?

I don't know, the evidence strongly leans one way here.