California Senate 2024 - Schiff (D) vs Garvey (R)

[wbrocks67]

Quinnipiac didn’t have a H2H, but they did do favorables

Among GE:
Porter: 30/11 (+19) — 59% haven’t heard enough
Lee: 18/11 (+7) — 71% haven’t heard enough
Schiff: 31/30 (+1) — 38% haven’t heard enough

Among Dems:
Schiff: 53/3 (+50) — 42% haven’t heard enough
Porter: 47/5 (+42) — 48% haven’t heard enough
Lee: 29/6 (+23) — 65% haven’t heard enough

Thought Porter would be more toxic with Rs since she seems to be another Fox boogeyman, but she’s only 10/19 with GOP. Schiff is 6/61. Porter also does better with Indies, at 26/12. Schiff is 25/36.

https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3868

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Quinnipiac didn’t have a H2H, but they did do favorables

Among GE:
Porter: 30/11 (+19) — 59% haven’t heard enough
Lee: 18/11 (+7) — 71% haven’t heard enough
Schiff: 31/30 (+1) — 38% haven’t heard enough

Among Dems:
Schiff: 53/3 (+50) — 42% haven’t heard enough
Porter: 47/5 (+42) — 48% haven’t heard enough
Lee: 29/6 (+23) — 65% haven’t heard enough

Thought Porter would be more toxic with Rs since she seems to be another Fox boogeyman, but she’s only 10/19 with GOP. Schiff is 6/61. Porter also does better with Indies, at 26/12. Schiff is 25/36.

https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3868

The theory that Schiff being hated among republicans seems to be true

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

I'm hoping Johnson and Caruso do run because it'll just make things so much more fun going into June.

[Babeuf]

Bass endorsed Barbara Lee. Pretty big endorsement imo.

[Canis]

Bass endorsed Barbara Lee. Pretty big endorsement imo.

https://twitter.com/KarenBassLA/status/1631045560714289153
Yup Lee having the backing of the mayor of LA and SF is a really big deal

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

Personally I'm leaning towards Porter, Lee, Schiff with quite a decent amount of space between my preferences for each of those candidates. Glad to see Porter with very strong favorables though and I'm definitely getting the feeling that this forum is underestimating her.

We obviously need more polls to come out before we know the lay of the land, but all the data that's come out so far has been very favorable for the Porter campaign.

[brucejoel99]

The Veep's network appears to be for Lee here (Barankin being a longtime statewide Harris aide, incl. as her 2016-19 CoS & then outside presidential PAC operator thereafter):

https://twitter.com/david_darmofal/status/1630740108457517056

[Хahar 🤔]

The Veep's network appears to be for Lee here (Barankin being a longtime statewide Harris aide, incl. as her 2016-19 CoS & then outside presidential PAC operator thereafter)

It's not surprising that the Kamala Harris network would also be the Barbara Lee network, even if Harris herself hasn't made a formal endorsement. It's another point for the notion that the real establishment candidate in this race is Barbara Lee, not Adam Schiff.

Meanwhile, hot off Karen Bass's endorsement of Lee, the Schiff campaign has decided to remember some guys:

https://twitter.com/Elex_Michaelson/status/1631152484516511744

The most exciting name on this list to me is Aaron Peskin, who is more or less a Republican caricature of a San Francisco politician. He would be by far the most malign influence on the San Francisco Board of Supervisors if not for Dean Preston. Some other names that veteran California observers might know include Darrell Steinberg (former state senate president pro tem and current Sacramento mayor), John Chiang (holder of multiple statewide elected offices, finished fifth in the 2018 gubernatorial primary), and Janice Hahn (former congresswoman, current Los Angeles County supervisor, brother of the former Los Angeles mayor).

I don't think that any of these names move the needle in any appreciable way, although the Peskin endorsement is really funny. What remains striking is the lack of support from Hispanic politicians with any sort of profile. Any candidate who can convincingly win the Southern California Mexican vote will certainly get through to the general election, and at the moment there's no indication if anyone can do it.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

This endorsement game is gonna be wild. They’re gonna be calling everyone from fmr senators to court clerks begging for endorsements

[coloradocowboi]

The Veep's network appears to be for Lee here (Barankin being a longtime statewide Harris aide, incl. as her 2016-19 CoS & then outside presidential PAC operator thereafter)

It's not surprising that the Kamala Harris network would also be the Barbara Lee network, even if Harris herself hasn't made a formal endorsement. It's another point for the notion that the real establishment candidate in this race is Barbara Lee, not Adam Schiff.

Meanwhile, hot off Karen Bass's endorsement of Lee, the Schiff campaign has decided to remember some guys:

https://twitter.com/Elex_Michaelson/status/1631152484516511744

The most exciting name on this list to me is Aaron Peskin, who is more or less a Republican caricature of a San Francisco politician. He would be by far the most malign influence on the San Francisco Board of Supervisors if not for Dean Preston. Some other names that veteran California observers might know include Darrell Steinberg (former state senate president pro tem and current Sacramento mayor), John Chiang (holder of multiple statewide elected offices, finished fifth in the 2018 gubernatorial primary), and Janice Hahn (former congresswoman, current Los Angeles County supervisor, brother of the former Los Angeles mayor).

I don't think that any of these names move the needle in any appreciable way, although the Peskin endorsement is really funny. What remains striking is the lack of support from Hispanic politicians with any sort of profile. Any candidate who can convincingly win the Southern California Mexican vote will certainly get through to the general election, and at the moment there's no indication if anyone can do it.

Schiff is gonna rake in all the corporate friendly politician endorsements, we knew this. And you’re right it won’t move the needle. But it def is a preview of how much Big Capital, Big Tech, and Big Real Estate will be spending on behalf of their chosen tool

[wbrocks67]

Honestly, I like Schiff and have nothing against him, but if I was in CA this would probably be between Porter and Lee for me.

[Holmes]

Honestly, I like Schiff and have nothing against him, but if I was in CA this would probably be between Porter and Lee for me.

It’s between Porter and Lee for me, and I’m leaning towards Lee because she’s from the Bay Area.

[Mr. Smith]

Honestly, I like Schiff and have nothing against him, but if I was in CA this would probably be between Porter and Lee for me.

It’s between Porter and Lee for me, and I’m leaning towards Lee because she’s from the Bay Area.

This. Ironic that I switched registration last midterm out of her district. After not stepping in for 2016, I kinda gave up on her going anywhere.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

The Veep's network appears to be for Lee here (Barankin being a longtime statewide Harris aide, incl. as her 2016-19 CoS & then outside presidential PAC operator thereafter)

It's not surprising that the Kamala Harris network would also be the Barbara Lee network, even if Harris herself hasn't made a formal endorsement. It's another point for the notion that the real establishment candidate in this race is Barbara Lee, not Adam Schiff.

Meanwhile, hot off Karen Bass's endorsement of Lee, the Schiff campaign has decided to remember some guys:

https://twitter.com/Elex_Michaelson/status/1631152484516511744

The most exciting name on this list to me is Aaron Peskin, who is more or less a Republican caricature of a San Francisco politician. He would be by far the most malign influence on the San Francisco Board of Supervisors if not for Dean Preston. Some other names that veteran California observers might know include Darrell Steinberg (former state senate president pro tem and current Sacramento mayor), John Chiang (holder of multiple statewide elected offices, finished fifth in the 2018 gubernatorial primary), and Janice Hahn (former congresswoman, current Los Angeles County supervisor, brother of the former Los Angeles mayor).

I don't think that any of these names move the needle in any appreciable way, although the Peskin endorsement is really funny. What remains striking is the lack of support from Hispanic politicians with any sort of profile. Any candidate who can convincingly win the Southern California Mexican vote will certainly get through to the general election, and at the moment there's no indication if anyone can do it.

Schiff has gotten plenty of establishment support.  I don’t think one can just hand-wave away the fact that he’s been endorsed by (among others) Pelosi and a good chunk of the House Democratic Caucus.  

I expect Lee to do better than she has in the decidedly limited polling we have so far, but I’m also not even convinced yet that she’ll amount to anything more than a third wheel in this race.  She could gain a lot of ground and become a major contender, but right now we don’t have much evidence that she’s a serious threat to take one of the runoff spots.  Again, not saying she won’t become one as the campaign progresses, but Lee doesn’t seem to be starting from a position of strength.

It’s still way too early to predict what will happen with any real certainty, but that being said, at the moment it is looking like a Porter vs. Schiff race with Lee as a third-wheel running a vanity campaign.  Again, that could definitely change, but going strictly off of what we know right now, I think the forum CW is underestimating Porter’s odds and pretty heavily overestimating Lee’s chances given the currently available information.  

If it seems like I am hedging my bets, that’s b/c I am  It’s ridiculously early and a lot can change (far too early for me to make predictions), but some folks (this bit is not directed at anyone in particular) are talking like Lee is the clear frontrunner and/or that Porter is a doomed third wheel destined to finish a semi-distant third.  There’s very little evidentiary basis for either of those things at this point.  If nothing else, Lee very much has her work cut out for her and it’s telling that she hasn’t released her own polling to counter the ones showing her in single-digits.

[coloradocowboi]

Schiff has gotten plenty of establishment support.  I don’t think one can just hand-wave away the fact that he’s been endorsed by (among others) Pelosi and a good chunk of the House Democratic Caucus.  

I expect Lee to do better than she has in the decidedly limited polling we have so far, but I’m also not even convinced yet that she’ll amount to anything more than a third wheel in this race.  She could gain a lot of ground and become a major contender, but right now we don’t have much evidence that she’s a serious threat to take one of the runoff spots.  Again, not saying she won’t become one as the campaign progresses, but Lee doesn’t seem to be starting from a position of strength.

It’s still way too early to predict what will happen with any real certainty, but that being said, at the moment it is looking like a Porter vs. Schiff race with Lee as a third-wheel running a vanity campaign.  Again, that could definitely change, but going strictly off of what we know right now, I think the forum CW is underestimating Porter’s odds and pretty heavily overestimating Lee’s chances given the currently available information.  

If it seems like I am hedging my bets, that’s b/c I am  It’s ridiculously early and a lot can change (far too early for me to make predictions), but some folks (this bit is not directed at anyone in particular) are talking like Lee is the clear frontrunner and/or that Porter is a doomed third wheel destined to finish a semi-distant third.  There’s very little evidentiary basis for either of those things at this point.  If nothing else, Lee very much has her work cut out for her and it’s telling that she hasn’t released her own polling to counter the ones showing her in single-digits.

Let’s break this down. Why does Pelosi’s endorsement matter? Whose vote does it secure?

And following that logic, whose vote does Jimmy Gomez secure? Or Julia Brownley? Or (lmao) George Miller?

The point we have all been making is that California politics involves catering to diverse racial, cultural, and ideological communities and MSNBC loving, wealthy white liberals are just one of them. Schiff will reap media and financial benefits from association with the establishment, sure. But it will likely hurt him with progressives and Latinos, two groups he absolutely needs to perform well with to have a chance.

To the point about Barbara Lee, the only evidence I’ve seen that she’s doomed to be a third wheel is opinion polling, and that’s unfair because she’s sitting at about 70% unknown. She has room to grow and likely will with: 1. Second most establishment support after Schiff; 2. Likely more institutional progressive support than Porter; and 3. The fact that identity politics matters here.

The dem primary electorate here is like 1/3 white y’all, and some of us California white folks actually care as much about representational politics as POC. This is the part that I think people are really underestimating Barbara Lee on. She’s running against two wealthy, white democrats from socal. Her potential to leverage this into a good position with Latinos, Filipinos, and other Asian groups is very high. She already represents a very diverse CD in the bay. A lot of people here are acting like her identity politics campaign will only resonate with blacks people and that’s a colossal mistake in California. Just look at Karen Bass’ mayor campaign in places like central and East LA. She had high “do not know” #s and even lost this region to Caruso in the first round, only to turn around and take it from him.

She also will get more actual leftist support than Porter, and that’s a fact. DSA LA will show up for Lee. That’s honestly like a few hundred thousand votes. She has better and more consistent credentials to appeal to leftist voters.

Finally, she’s the only Northern California candidate and has actually got more solid establishment support from the region than Schiff, excepting Nancy Pelosi. All of this matters. Does it mean Lee is guaranteed a spot in the top 2? No. But we have a year for her to make her case, and I don’t see her getting less than 20% of the primary electorate, especially with a Kamala endorsement likely in the pipeline

Porter and Schiff have the same problem but it affects Katie more. They have brands that don’t connect to audiences that matter here. They have money and name recognition, sure. But Katie is gonna lose a lot of her current supporters to Lee because she’s white and representation matters to young progressives. She needs more than money and fame. What labor unions will come out for her? How will she appeal to communities of color in a way that can compete with Lee? Can she win the environmentalist vote? All the people pumping her up can point to is her internet celebrity status and fundraising chops - all of which won her mentor Elizabeth Warren a fourth place finish here in CA, and only extremely wealthy, terminally online, predominantly gay communities like weho and Palm Springs.

The Bernie vs Warren parallel is huge here, and I personally think if Bernie endorses Lee like I suspect he will, it will be even harder for Katie Porter to claim
The progressive mantle.

In the end, I see Lee cleaning up NorCal, black communities, and the left. That should be enough to get into a runoff. I still don’t see Schiff or Porter having any actual votes locked up. Just LA times polls with high soft numbers and small sample sizes and Democratic Party hacks, many of whom also seem to like Lee

[Sir Mohamed]

This endorsement game is gonna be wild. They’re gonna be calling everyone from fmr senators to court clerks begging for endorsements

Hot take: Barely any of these endorsements matter.

Perhaps Harris making one could swing a few voters here, but I doubt she or Newsom bother to actually throw their support behind a candidate. Likewise Biden or Obama, whose endorsements would at least matter to a degree.

[brucejoel99]

Does it mean Lee is guaranteed a spot in the top 2? No. But we have a year for her to make her case, and I don’t see her getting less than 20% of the primary electorate, especially with a Kamala endorsement likely in the pipeline

I'd note that a Kamala endorsement probably isn't coming, even in spite of her statewide network supporting Lee, just because the POTUS & Veep will surely remain 'formally' neutral.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

This endorsement game is gonna be wild. They’re gonna be calling everyone from fmr senators to court clerks begging for endorsements

Hot take: Barely any of these endorsements matter.

Perhaps Harris making one could swing a few voters here, but I doubt she or Newsom bother to actually throw their support behind a candidate. Likewise Biden or Obama, whose endorsements would at least matter to a degree.

Oh you’re definitely right. They might have some marginal effect here and there, but it won’t add up to more than a percent. Still, once this ball starts rolling it’s hard to stop

[coloradocowboi]

This endorsement game is gonna be wild. They’re gonna be calling everyone from fmr senators to court clerks begging for endorsements

Hot take: Barely any of these endorsements matter.

Perhaps Harris making one could swing a few voters here, but I doubt she or Newsom bother to actually throw their support behind a candidate. Likewise Biden or Obama, whose endorsements would at least matter to a degree.

Influencers getting involved will matter more. Identity politics will matter more. And bc it’s California random trends and social media will matter more. The smartest thing Katie Porter can do prolly is become a tik tok influencer

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

It’s still way too early to predict what will happen with any real certainty, but that being said, at the moment it is looking like a Porter vs. Schiff race with Lee as a third-wheel running a vanity campaign.  Again, that could definitely change, but going strictly off of what we know right now, I think the forum CW is underestimating Porter’s odds and pretty heavily overestimating Lee’s chances given the currently available information.

Such is the case when the most vocal & frequent posters in this thread are ardently pro-Lee

[coloradocowboi]

It’s still way too early to predict what will happen with any real certainty, but that being said, at the moment it is looking like a Porter vs. Schiff race with Lee as a third-wheel running a vanity campaign.  Again, that could definitely change, but going strictly off of what we know right now, I think the forum CW is underestimating Porter’s odds and pretty heavily overestimating Lee’s chances given the currently available information.

Such is the case when the most vocal & frequent posters in this thread are ardently pro-Lee

In my own defense, I am not discounting Katie Porter. I just haven't heard anyone address the serious shortcomings I've listed: 1. How is she going to appeal to communities of color? 2. What will make progressives choose her over Lee besides the issue of age? 3. Where in California specifically will she perform well? And with what voters?

[I’m not Stu]

I imagine Porter does well in Orange County, as one poll indicated. I don't believe she will flop in Orange County like Marco Rubio flopped in Florida in the 2016 GOP presidential primary.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Porter and Schiff just voted for MORE WAR IN SYRIA while Lee voted against it. The true progressive is obvious.

[Canis]

https://twitter.com/AmarShergillCA/status/1633609589739630592

[Suburbia]

Lee is too old to be a Senator, she is a nice lady and I liked her principles during the Iraq and Afghanistan Wars, but she is too old.

Schiff and Porter are younger, I think Mayor London Breed should join in.