California Senate 2024 - Schiff (D) vs Garvey (R)

[brucejoel99]

Barbara Lee will be underestimated but probably has one of the highest floors without really doing anything at all. I also expect a lot of the progressive and women of color reps will endorse her and snub Porter. I also see her winning over the DSA vote versus Porter, which matters a lot in LA city and college towns.

Does Lee get the support of CA Black women leaders? Guessing no Kamala, since she has to nominally remain neutral, but what about Breed, Cohen, Waters, Weber, Bass, Mitchell, & Kamlager? Can they manage to swing either the KHive specifically or women & Californians of color more broadly behind Lee, to say nothing of hopefully enough of the SF/NorCal machines & anti-Porter progressives to put Lee in the runoff with Schiff? (Hell, could they somehow even manage to force Newsom's hand into endorsing/campaigning for Lee? Would it even be all that hard to convince him to do so in the first place, since Lee 2024 likely means a likely open seat for Newsom 2030 that Schiff or Porter 2024 likely doesn't mean?)

I am willing to bet given the historic nature of her candidacy that even centrist black leaders like London Breed will feel intense pressure to endorse Lee. The LA black establishment is pretty progressive though, and I expect all of those names to come out for Lee. I also imagine a lot of Asian American and Latina lawmakers of the feminist persuasion will come out for Lee. People like Judy Chu, Mia Bonta, Eunisses Hernandez, Nithya Raman, and Nanette Barragan are worth keeping an eye on. In general, I also expect progressives to mostly back Lee.

My congressman (Jimmy Gomez) endorsed Schiff already and I don’t understand. In a district like his where identity and progressivism matters, it’s a rly dumb move. But we don’t ever bother with high expectations for Jimmy

I guess that's just Jimmy & Jimmy alone, then https://twitter.com/CATargetBot/status/1620680871929053184

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Do we know if it’s the same Jimmy Gomez?

[brucejoel99]

Do we know if it’s the same Jimmy Gomez?

The listed treasurer, Mary Hodge, has the same name as the Congressman's wife, so presumably.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Do we know if it’s the same Jimmy Gomez?

The listed treasurer, Mary Hodge, has the same name as the Congressman's wife, so presumably.

Then it’s probably him. I just remembered the Raul Ruiz vs. Raul Ruiz from 2020

[brucejoel99]

It’s a long way to June 2024

Oh also, *March: state/congressional primaries in presidential years are now held simultaneously with the presidential.

[Blair]

Is it cynical to suggest some people might favour Lee or even schiff as they’re less likely to still be here in 20 years.

With Padilla being unlikely to run for President there’s a real chance of no vacancy for three or four terms if Porter won…

[Epaminondas]

I just remembered the Raul Ruiz vs. Raul Ruiz from 2020

Has this really happened? A Democratic primary between candidates with the same name? Can't find it on Ballotpedia.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I just remembered the Raul Ruiz vs. Raul Ruiz from 2020

Has this really happened? A Democratic primary between candidates with the same name? Can't find it on Ballotpedia.

In JFK's first election, he had a primary opponent named Joe Russo, so suddenly a second Joe Russo showed up.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

I just remembered the Raul Ruiz vs. Raul Ruiz from 2020

Has this really happened? A Democratic primary between candidates with the same name? Can't find it on Ballotpedia.

It wasn’t a democratic primary but California’s blanket primary. You had the incumbent democrat, Raul Ruiz, and another guy running as a republican named Raul Ruiz. It also happened in 2018 in Kansas where Ron Estes faced another guy named Ron Estes which lead to a court battle over how the ballot should be written.

[Atlas Force]

Meanwhile Republican Mike Doyle unsuccessfully ran last year in Pennsylvania’s 12th District to succeed retiring Democratic Congressman Mike Doyle.

[JMT]

https://twitter.com/tiffanystecker/status/1623085791122706432?s=46&t=pnZUNBB...

[coloradocowboi]

Is it cynical to suggest some people might favour Lee or even schiff as they’re less likely to still be here in 20 years.

With Padilla being unlikely to run for President there’s a real chance of no vacancy for three or four terms if Porter won…

This is another reason why I am 99% certain I will be voting for Lee. I like Katie Porter and wish she wasn't about to be replaced with Harley Rouda, but ultimately she is a center-left, "capitalist to her bones" (to quote her mentor), progressively-branded McDemocrat. I've spent a lot of time bagging on Schiff here, but the truth about Katie Porter is that she really isn't much more progressive than Schiff, just more branded that way. I dk if I wanna sign on to 12+ years with this woman until I know way more about her, what she believes, what guides her, what she thinks the future of gov't is

[Zedonathin2020]

Barbara Lee Update: She is expected to announce by the end of the month

https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1624092344940171264?s=46&t=Ofgi7rCGLbCgRL...

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

I think Lee would make a good one, two term senator.

[Minnesota Mike]

I think Lee would make a good one, two term senator.

Two terms would make her 90 at the end of the 2nd term. After seeing Sen Feinstein's decline do Californians really want a nonagenarian Senator? Honestly if I lived in California Lee's current age would be a strike against her for me in the 2024 election.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

I think Lee would make a good one, two term senator.

Two terms would make her 90 at the end of the 2nd term. After seeing Sen Feinstein's decline do Californians really want a nonagenarian Senator? Honestly if I lived in California Lee's current age would be a strike against her for me in the 2024 election.

One term for Lee it is. It sucks shes so old cause of the candidates present I’d pick her

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/teddyschleifer/status/1624172145927684096

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Kamala Harris is still technically in the senate.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

On the topic of demographics, it's interesting how there hasn't been any Hispanic politicians that've been floated as a potential candidate or even a remotely viable one. The only one I can think of is Xavier Becerra but he might have his eyes set more on the governors race

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

NC choked when they did not elected Beasley but Barbara Lee has zero chance of being Senator or Gov

[gerritcole]

On the topic of demographics, it's interesting how there hasn't been any Hispanic politicians that've been floated as a potential candidate or even a remotely viable one. The only one I can think of is Xavier Becerra but he might have his eyes set more on the governors race

Alex Padilla has got the “Latino seat” held down for a few decades at least

[prag_prog]

yes...lets elect a 78 year old to a safe Dem Senate seat when there is a younger option of similar ideology and would vote the same 99%+ of the time...just zero logic.

[Sestak]

Barbara Lee will be younger in 2030 than Joe Biden will be in 2028. I’d better hear all of you who are complaining calling for his replacement on the ticket as well…

[coloradocowboi]

yes...lets elect a 78 year old to a safe Dem Senate seat when there is a younger option of similar ideology and would vote the same 99%+ of the time...just zero logic.

Zero logic? Well, for starters, it's very logical that Black women want to be represented in the U.S. Senate. It's in their interest as a community, and it's in every single American's interest to be represented by somebody who understands their experience?? Sure, youth matters. But if that's true, then so does race... I am very over the "identity politics is illogical" tirades coming from people blatantly practicing identity politics. They are inevitable, and probably because they are important

Anyway, they are also not really of a "similar" ideology. I don't believe Katie Porter has any questions or doubts about the nature of our economic system or principled opposition to the military industrial complex. She's a McProgressive, Barbara Lee is closer to being a real leftist (tho clearly not). I doubt Katie Porter would tackle foreign policy like Lee would.

There's actually so much more to it. But y'all are about to find out when that 78 year old lady gets elected, and probably wins young voters over Porter 2:1

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Barbara Lee will be younger in 2030 than Joe Biden will be in 2028. I’d better hear all of you who are complaining calling for his replacement on the ticket as well…

Joe Biden is the *incumbent* President. Barbara Lee is potentially running for an *open* seat. The same logic with Biden opponents in 2020 still stands in 2024 with Lee: Why elect a septuagenarian when we can elect someone younger with pretty much the same views?

Now the argument could be made that we needed Biden in ‘20 and ‘24 cause no one else could win. But literally any Democrat we nominate in Cali will win.