California Senate 2024 - Schiff (D) vs Garvey (R)

[coloradocowboi]

comparing Biden's 2020 run with Barbara Lee's senate run is not an apt one...Dems didn't have many alternatives in 2020 and Biden was polling the best vs Trump among all possible Dem candidates. That's just not the case here...even worst possible Dem candidate will win the California Sen race.

And if that seat MUST be held by a WOC, why not London Breed and not somebody who’s almost 80 years old and would probably only serve a single term?

Both of you need to read a little bit more back in time lol. We've been over this. Nobody wants London Breed. People have other factors besides age in mind.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

comparing Biden's 2020 run with Barbara Lee's senate run is not an apt one...Dems didn't have many alternatives in 2020 and Biden was polling the best vs Trump among all possible Dem candidates. That's just not the case here...even worst possible Dem candidate will win the California Sen race.

And if that seat MUST be held by a WOC, why not London Breed and not somebody who’s almost 80 years old and would probably only serve a single term?

God no. I'm not a fan of geriatrics holding political power but I'll easily support Lee over Breed.

[Lambsbread]

Didn’t Feinstein previously state she was going to announce her plans next year? If that’s true the fact she has expedited the timeline makes me wonder why.

Because three incredible high profile Congresspeople are running to replace her and they're not going to delay their campaigns to wait for her.

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

All the way with Katie Porter, in fact I'm gonna go make a donation to her campaign right now.

[coloradocowboi]

All the way with Katie Porter, in fact I'm gonna go make a donation to her campaign right now.

This will be her advantage. TBD if out of state donations transform into in-state votes though

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/dianne-feinstein-appears-unaware-retirement-announcement-reporter-gaggle-reports?intcmp=tw_pols

Honestly just sad.

[Tintrlvr]

comparing Biden's 2020 run with Barbara Lee's senate run is not an apt one...Dems didn't have many alternatives in 2020 and Biden was polling the best vs Trump among all possible Dem candidates. That's just not the case here...even worst possible Dem candidate will win the California Sen race.

And if that seat MUST be held by a WOC, why not London Breed and not somebody who’s almost 80 years old and would probably only serve a single term?

Here's a good example of a phenomenon I observed recently:

This forum has always been fascinated with the idea of London Breed winning higher office, but there doesn't seem to be any reason there except that she's a black woman and I guess not everyone here can name other black female politicians in California.

I think it's perfectly defensible to support Breed. Of course, she isn't going to appeal to the vast majority of the group of people supporting Barbara Lee (especially non-black voters supporting Barbara Lee), and pretending they are comparable candidate just because they are both black women is inappropriate (though it might be relevant in a state where the black vote overall mattered more as that is the one area where there would be some overlap in support).

"Nobody wants Breed" is not true simply because "progressives don't want Breed" is true.

In any case it's irrelevant as the establishment has already lined up behind Schiff so there is no lane for Breed.

[Хahar 🤔]

comparing Biden's 2020 run with Barbara Lee's senate run is not an apt one...Dems didn't have many alternatives in 2020 and Biden was polling the best vs Trump among all possible Dem candidates. That's just not the case here...even worst possible Dem candidate will win the California Sen race.

And if that seat MUST be held by a WOC, why not London Breed and not somebody who’s almost 80 years old and would probably only serve a single term?

Here's a good example of a phenomenon I observed recently:

This forum has always been fascinated with the idea of London Breed winning higher office, but there doesn't seem to be any reason there except that she's a black woman and I guess not everyone here can name other black female politicians in California.

I think it's perfectly defensible to support Breed. Of course, she isn't going to appeal to the vast majority of the group of people supporting Barbara Lee (especially non-black voters supporting Barbara Lee), and pretending they are comparable candidate just because they are both black women is inappropriate (though it might be relevant in a state where the black vote overall mattered more as that is the one area where there would be some overlap in support).

"Nobody wants Breed" is not true simply because "progressives don't want Breed" is true.

In any case it's irrelevant as the establishment has already lined up behind Schiff so there is no lane for Breed.

You're missing the point, which is that nobody wants Breed because nobody anywhere is talking about her running for anything except another term as mayor. It's a concept that exists exclusively on this forum. If you want to make an alternate history concept about that, go for it, but it doesn't have any relation to observable reality, and that's what I at least would like to deal with. Barbara Lee is going to be a candidate for this seat in real life.

As many people have posted here repeatedly, "the establishment" has not lined up behind anyone. I think Lee is the likeliest candidate to get the support of Sacramento.

[Blair]

Schiff was on Pod Save America, which is basically a pilgrimage for getting small donors and resistance wine mums, but it was interesting how I thought he was both quite flat (he spend 5 minutes talking about ethics reforms, inspector general reports etc) but also quite clearly sees himself as the favourite.

[Oppo]

comparing Biden's 2020 run with Barbara Lee's senate run is not an apt one...Dems didn't have many alternatives in 2020

Weren’t there 26 other candidates in the primary race? There were pretty clearly alternatives to Biden

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

comparing Biden's 2020 run with Barbara Lee's senate run is not an apt one...Dems didn't have many alternatives in 2020

Weren’t there 26 other candidates in the primary race? There were pretty clearly alternatives to Biden

Yeah, but only one had voted for the Iraq war, bankruptcy bill, and to constitutionally ban abortion, so we had to go with him.

[Storr]

Didn’t Feinstein previously state she was going to announce her plans next year? If that’s true the fact she has expedited the timeline makes me wonder why.

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1625608937587220502?s=20&t=K9mr4VE2...

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Schiff was on Pod Save America, which is basically a pilgrimage for getting small donors and resistance wine mums, but it was interesting how I thought he was both quite flat (he spend 5 minutes talking about ethics reforms, inspector general reports etc) but also quite clearly sees himself as the favourite.

It's very early but of the three candidates, Schiff strikes me as the one most likely to flounder.

[2016]

I hope Adam Schiff wins! Getting that Russian-Hoax lying Adam out of the House will be a blessing for Republicans, Democrats, Independents, liberals, conservatives and the entire country.

Schiff can't do much damage in the Senate!

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

I hope Adam Schiff wins! Getting that Russian-Hoax lying Adam out of the House will be a blessing for Republicans, Democrats, Independents, liberals, conservatives and the entire country.

Schiff can't do much damage in the Senate!

Get him out of the House where he represents less than a million people in a chamber of over 400 and into the much weaker role of representing 40 million people including two of the largest media markets in the country in a chamber where each member has enormous power.

Excellent thinking.

[Stockdale for Veep]

Still time to implement IRV. A contested primary makes a dem lockout a slightly larger possibility. Seriously guys, change the law before you get burned. 

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Still time to implement IRV. A contested primary makes a dem lockout a slightly larger possibility. Seriously guys, change the law before you get burned. 

Newsom has vetoed IRV/RCV once as Mayor of San Fran, he’ll do it again

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/dianne-feinstein-appears-unaware-retirement-announcement-reporter-gaggle-reports?intcmp=tw_pols

Honestly just sad.

She has fallen so much since her days of vetoing domestic partnerships and raising a confederate flag. Oh wait, she's always been terrible.

[Хahar 🤔]

Still time to implement IRV. A contested primary makes a dem lockout a slightly larger possibility. Seriously guys, change the law before you get burned. 

The current law was enacted by 2010's Proposition 14, a ballot initiative. Consequently it is not possible to amend the law except through another ballot initiative being approved by voters.

[oldtimer]

Still time to implement IRV. A contested primary makes a dem lockout a slightly larger possibility. Seriously guys, change the law before you get burned. 

The most likely outcome is Schiff getting half to 2/3 of the 60% of the D vote, and Republicans splitting their 40% in 2 or more almost equal piecies.

So it's almost impossible for Democrats to get locked out.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's obvious it's gonna be Porter the D's want a younger women so we can win in 24 the Filibuster proof Trifecta a D Nancy Pelosi stepped down for Jeffries makes way for Sen elect Porter obviously Warren has some influence she was Porter Law School teacher it's no time to play games OH, AZ Gallego, Brown, Kunce, Tester will give us the Secular Filibuster proof Trifecta

[Sir Mohamed]

Finally, the Feinstein tenure is coming to an end, at least 6 if not 12 years late.

Predicting a Porter vs. Schiff runoff which is a total tossup.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Still time to implement IRV. A contested primary makes a dem lockout a slightly larger possibility. Seriously guys, change the law before you get burned. 

Are you suggesting moving to the Alaska system, or Maine's system (which would require a return to party primaries, and doesn't use IRV in the primaries), or something else?  Because I'm not sure how this would be implemented to mesh with the Top 2-runoff systems.

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/JeremyBWhite/status/1625876228296294400https://twitter.com/teddyschleifer/status/1625912633126944768

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

She isn't gonna win which suits Porter fine she runs up the score in upstate CA while Schiff and Barbara Lee split the downstate vote in LA a Runoff between Schiff and Porter inevitable

Blks have no problem voting for Porter against Schiff in a Runoff