California Senate 2024 - Schiff (D) vs Garvey (R)

[Agafin]

What would a Lee vs Porter map look like?

Dems would probably split north-south, and Republicans would favour Lee.

No. Just no.

Over Schiff, I think this is possible because he is so toxic to a lot of Rs.

From a numbers perspective I think the African American vote is going to be less important in California than it is in other states primaries simply due to how democratic the rest of the state is. AA communites punch above their weight in democratic primaries due to their extreme democratic registration edge. This advantage is lessend in California both because the top-two system functions as an open primary, and the broad democratic lean of other racial groups.

The black community still punches high above their proportion of them population, and I wouldn’t discount the fact that a lot latinas and other women of color will vote for Lee for similar reasons to black women, e.g. identification, relatability, etc.

In California, that has not been very much true, historically. Looking at the exit polls from the 2008 and 2020 democratic primaries (I can't find anything on 2016 anymore), black voters accounted for 7% of the electorate in both, which is not far from the CVAP share of black voters in California. Like someone else said, the fact that California white voters are so democratic reduces the impact of black voters here. In a Southern state with 5-6% black share like Cali has, you'd have expected at least 10% of the democratic primary being black.

Another thing I've seen in the exits is that black voters in California tend to "block vote" less than elsewhere, even if one of the candidate is black or popular with the broader black community. Obama "only" won black Californians by 78-18 over Clinton, less than his 82-15 nationwide win over her in 2008 with black voters. Biden also only  won them 42-18 over Sanders in 2020 while he was crushing Sanders everywhere else by 40 to 80 points among black voters. Also, although I can't find the poll anymore, I seem to remember Harris winning  in the vicinity of 70-75% of black voters in the 2016 general (which was D vs D). Basically, all of this is to say that, there is no precedence for Lee winning 90%+ of the black vote nor is there for the black share  being especially higher than the CVAP value. I don't think Black voters have ever been the decisive group in any California statewide election so if Lee is to win, she would have to be stronger elsewhere.

[Minnesota Mike]

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1627994448239136770

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Changedy Endorsement to Miz Barbara Lee it's a Runoff anyways

[Lambsbread]

Lee is also including endorsements from Dolores Huerta and Cedric Richmond, among others. Quite an interesting cross-section of ideologies, and a good mix of both establishment and outsider types. She may be able to coalesce enough support by being a black woman running in a field of (presumably) mostly white folks. Schiff, Porter, and Lee may not differ a ton ideologically, but the racial divide is probably going to play out in the results.

[coloradocowboi]

Lee is also including endorsements from Dolores Huerta and Cedric Richmond, among others. Quite an interesting cross-section of ideologies, and a good mix of both establishment and outsider types. She may be able to coalesce enough support by being a black woman running in a field of (presumably) mostly white folks. Schiff, Porter, and Lee may not differ a ton ideologically, but the racial divide is probably going to play out in the results.

I think Lee wins white progressives handily in the end too. The question will ultimately be how latino voters swing, and I don’t see them swinging for Schiff

[Zedonathin2020]

Lee FINALLY makes her run official

https://twitter.com/barbaraleeforca/status/1628042697352290304?s=46&t=hz6QcT...
If she was about 10 or 20 years younger she’d have my full endorsement, but as of now I’m still 100% on Porter

[Sir Mohamed]

Imagine even more high-profile Dems jumping in taking so many votes from each other than it's going to be a R vs. R November election. Not going to happen, but still scary to think about. The jungle primary sucks, tbh.

I think it'll be Schiff vs. Porterin the GE. Starts out as tossup.

[I’m not Stu]

Would Porter do well with OC Democrats?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden is targeting FL not TX I am anxious for Rod Joseph and Barbara Lee to join Booker and Warnock, it can flop in 2 yrs just be aware it's 2 yrs before Eday

Biden went to Tampa, FL

[prag_prog]

sucks that Lee entered the race...I was hoping Porter could win and have the seat for next 30+ years

[Agafin]

sucks that Lee entered the race...I was hoping Porter could win and have the seat for next 30+ years

Is that now impossible?

[coloradocowboi]

Would Porter do well with OC Democrats?

Yes but that’s not a v significant slice of the primary electorate

sucks that Lee entered the race...I was hoping Porter could win and have the seat for next 30+ years

Is that now impossible?

I would put money on a Lee v Schiff top 2.

[Lambsbread]

Would Porter do well with OC Democrats?

What are you trying to accomplish by postpadding and asking thousands of unanswerable questions in this thread?

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Would Porter do well with OC Democrats?

What are you trying to accomplish by postpadding and asking thousands of unanswerable questions in this thread?

Does Lee win wine aunts from Riverside???

[Agafin]

Would Porter do well with OC Democrats?

Yes but that’s not a v significant slice of the primary electorate

sucks that Lee entered the race...I was hoping Porter could win and have the seat for next 30+ years

Is that now impossible?

I would put money on a Lee v Schiff top 2.

Interesting that so many here are expecting a D vs D race. I wouldn't be so sure.

[I’m not Stu]

Where would Barbara Lee do well in Southern California (if she does well in any SoCal region)?

[Хahar 🤔]

Interesting list of endorsements for Lee, a combination of black politicians of various ideological orientations (Lucy McBath and London Breed both endorsed Michael Bloomberg) and left-wing politicians of various ethnicities. For the most part the current big names aren't here, but there's Tony Thurmond and Mia Bonta (whose support is tantamount to her husband's) and Willie Brown. I think that provides an indication of who's getting the establishment support.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I am gonna send money to Barbara Lee and Kunce and Brown

[2016]

I am going to tell you what's going to happen in CA next year....

Katie Porter & Barbara Lee will split the Progressive Vote allowing Adam Schiff to win the CA Open Primary in March and either Porter or Lee will be dispatched by Schiff very easily in November 2024.

It will be a D vs D Race just like 2016 between Harris and Sanchez.

[prag_prog]

sucks that Lee entered the race...I was hoping Porter could win and have the seat for next 30+ years

Is that now impossible?

her chances have definitely taken a hit with Lee in the race. Would like to see a poll but wouldn't be surprised if she is in 3rd place

[coloradocowboi]

Does Lee win wine aunts from Riverside???

I know this is a joke, but this is a v Republican demo anyway.

Where would Barbara Lee do well in Southern California (if she does well in any SoCal region)?

She will do extremely well in L.A. City, and very well in Long Beach and some of the northern burbs like Pasadena and Burbank. San Diego is a gigantic question mark amidst all of this, and is being LA-ified as we speak.

[I’m not Stu]

Does Lee win wine aunts from Riverside???

I know this is a joke, but this is a v Republican demo anyway.

Where would Barbara Lee do well in Southern California (if she does well in any SoCal region)?

She will do extremely well in L.A. City, and very well in Long Beach and some of the northern burbs like Pasadena and Burbank. San Diego is a gigantic question mark amidst all of this, and is being LA-ified as we speak.

Would Orange County (largely white, Hispanic, and Asian) go to Porter or Schiff?

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

sucks that Lee entered the race...I was hoping Porter could win and have the seat for next 30+ years

Is that now impossible?

her chances have definitely taken a hit with Lee in the race. Would like to see a poll but wouldn't be surprised if she is in 3rd place

It's all we really have at the moment, but the Porter internal from a month or two ago had Schiff with 29%, Lee with 9% and Khanna with 6%

[coloradocowboi]

Does Lee win wine aunts from Riverside???

I know this is a joke, but this is a v Republican demo anyway.

Where would Barbara Lee do well in Southern California (if she does well in any SoCal region)?

She will do extremely well in L.A. City, and very well in Long Beach and some of the northern burbs like Pasadena and Burbank. San Diego is a gigantic question mark amidst all of this, and is being LA-ified as we speak.

Would Orange County (largely white, Hispanic, and Asian) go to Porter or Schiff?

I assume a Republican will win OC on the first ballot, given how the Dems are gonna split the vote and how OC isn't really democratic anyway. Could see Porter winning if their main candidate is some clown like Larry Elder though

[I’m not Stu]

Does Lee win wine aunts from Riverside???

I know this is a joke, but this is a v Republican demo anyway.

Where would Barbara Lee do well in Southern California (if she does well in any SoCal region)?

She will do extremely well in L.A. City, and very well in Long Beach and some of the northern burbs like Pasadena and Burbank. San Diego is a gigantic question mark amidst all of this, and is being LA-ified as we speak.

Would Orange County (largely white, Hispanic, and Asian) go to Porter or Schiff?

I assume a Republican will win OC on the first ballot, given how the Dems are gonna split the vote and how OC isn't really democratic anyway. Could see Porter winning if their main candidate is some clown like Larry Elder though

What about the second ballot?