California Senate 2024 - Schiff (D) vs Garvey (R)

[Хahar 🤔]

What would a Lee vs Porter map look like?

Dems would probably split north-south, and Republicans would favour Lee.

No. Just no.

Over Schiff, I think this is possible because he is so toxic to a lot of Rs.

As I mentioned before, I think it's entirely reasonable to think that Lee could win among Republicans against either Schiff or Porter. In elections between two Democrats, California Republicans have not shown any particular inclination to vote based on ideology, and I think it's quite possible that Porter would scan as obnoxious to Republicans in a similar way as Schiff.

All of this is what makes this race interesting. Obviously the difference between Barbara Lee and Adam Schiff would be minuscule compared to the difference between, say, Ruben Gallego and Kari Lake, but in that race we pretty well know what the possibilities are. Here it feels like anything could happen.

[kwabbit]

Does Lee win wine aunts from Riverside???

I know this is a joke, but this is a v Republican demo anyway.

Where would Barbara Lee do well in Southern California (if she does well in any SoCal region)?

She will do extremely well in L.A. City, and very well in Long Beach and some of the northern burbs like Pasadena and Burbank. San Diego is a gigantic question mark amidst all of this, and is being LA-ified as we speak.

Would Orange County (largely white, Hispanic, and Asian) go to Porter or Schiff?

I assume a Republican will win OC on the first ballot, given how the Dems are gonna split the vote and how OC isn't really democratic anyway. Could see Porter winning if their main candidate is some clown like Larry Elder though

I'd assume OC goes blue on the first ballot. The GOP might be even more split than the Dems. For instance, Dahle, who was the only Republican with significant support going into the 2022 primary, won 22.2% on the first ballot. Dahle is pretty prominent in CA GOP politics too, so if no one notable Republican enters the best Republican could be getting something like 7% statewide.

[Хahar 🤔]

Does Lee win wine aunts from Riverside???

I know this is a joke, but this is a v Republican demo anyway.

Where would Barbara Lee do well in Southern California (if she does well in any SoCal region)?

She will do extremely well in L.A. City, and very well in Long Beach and some of the northern burbs like Pasadena and Burbank. San Diego is a gigantic question mark amidst all of this, and is being LA-ified as we speak.

Would Orange County (largely white, Hispanic, and Asian) go to Porter or Schiff?

I assume a Republican will win OC on the first ballot, given how the Dems are gonna split the vote and how OC isn't really democratic anyway. Could see Porter winning if their main candidate is some clown like Larry Elder though

I'd assume OC goes blue on the first ballot. The GOP might be even more split than the Dems. For instance, Dahle, who was the only Republican with significant support going into the 2022 primary, won 22.2% on the first ballot. Dahle is pretty prominent in CA GOP politics too, so if no one notable Republican enters the best Republican could be getting something like 7% statewide.

We can look to the past for a hint as to this question. In both 2016 and 2018, the top Republican got less than half the vote share of the top Democrat in Orange County in the senatorial primary election. (In 2016, only Kern and three northern counties had a Republican top the poll in the first round; in 2018, no county was won outright by a Republican, although Dianne Feinstein did tie for first place with a Republican in Modoc County.) The Democratic vote looks to be split three ways this time instead of two, but assuming that no Republican runs a real campaign (which would be my expectation), I find it very unlikely that a Republican will slip into first place in Orange County.

[I’m not Stu]

First ballot is so crowded. Who would win OC on second ballot, if it's D vs D?

[MarkD]

Barbara Lee was born the same year as Bill Clinton, George W. Bush, and Donald Trump; she'll be 78 next year. And she's going to run for the Senate now?!?

[Mr. Smith]

Barbara Lee was born the same year as Bill Clinton, George W. Bush, and Donald Trump; she'll be 78 next year. And she's going to run for the Senate now?!?

Donna Shalala won 2018 at that ageas the record, Ed Markey wasn't much younger when making the upgrade from The House.

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/GregLeeKTVU/status/1628036605729722374https://twitter.com/GregLeeKTVU/status/1628117297201319936https://twitter.com/metzgov/status/1628053364633219075

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

https://twitter.com/GregLeeKTVU/status/1628036605729722374
https://twitter.com/GregLeeKTVU/status/1628117297201319936
https://twitter.com/metzgov/status/1628053364633219075

Ehh, identity politics usually doesn't work even in Dem primaries. She should campaign on being the real leftist.

[free my dawg]

Never thought I'd be standing side by side with the KHive.

[Not Me, Us]

Honestly, I do respect how shameless Lee is when it comes to the age question. Despite that, Porter is my pick, electing an almost 80 year old to a six year term is just insane to me.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

First non-internal poll? From the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies.


LA Times: Schiff, Porter in tight race to replace Sen. Feinstein, poll shows; others trail far behind

The race to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein is shaping up to be a close contest between two congressional colleagues who have built national profiles and potent fundraising operations but appeal to different generations of Democratic voters, according to a new UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll co-sponsored by the Los Angeles Times.

About 4 in 10 registered Democrats and nonpartisan voters in the survey said they hadn’t made up their minds on a candidate, so the race still has plenty of room to shift between now and the March 2024 primary [...]

Schiff has the support of 22%, with 20% backing Porter, 6% for Lee and 4% for Khanna, the poll found.[...]

Because no prominent Republican has gotten into the 2024 race — or even publicly discussed entering it — this poll questioned only Democrats and nonpartisan voters about the contest.

Despite being well-known in their respective districts, the candidates will need to do a lot of work to boost their prominence, the poll showed. Each of the four hopefuls was viewed favorably by voters, but huge swaths didn’t know enough to have an opinion of them. That was especially true for Khanna and Lee, who both drew blanks from more than 6 in 10 voters.

Other tidbits from the article:

- Scbiff leads Porter 42 - 17 among voters 65 and older
- Schiff leads Porter 27 - 19 among voters 50 - 64
- Porter leads Schiff 20 - 8 among voters 40 and under
- Porter holds big leads in OC and the Inland Empire. Schiff leads slightly in SF Bay, Central Coast and Central Valley. LA and San Diego are up in the air.

[Lambsbread]

Never thought I'd be standing side by side with the KHive.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

We lee’s have to stick together.

[I’m not Stu]

First non-internal poll? From the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies.


LA Times: Schiff, Porter in tight race to replace Sen. Feinstein, poll shows; others trail far behind

The race to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein is shaping up to be a close contest between two congressional colleagues who have built national profiles and potent fundraising operations but appeal to different generations of Democratic voters, according to a new UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll co-sponsored by the Los Angeles Times.

About 4 in 10 registered Democrats and nonpartisan voters in the survey said they hadn’t made up their minds on a candidate, so the race still has plenty of room to shift between now and the March 2024 primary [...]

Schiff has the support of 22%, with 20% backing Porter, 6% for Lee and 4% for Khanna, the poll found.[...]

Because no prominent Republican has gotten into the 2024 race — or even publicly discussed entering it — this poll questioned only Democrats and nonpartisan voters about the contest.

Despite being well-known in their respective districts, the candidates will need to do a lot of work to boost their prominence, the poll showed. Each of the four hopefuls was viewed favorably by voters, but huge swaths didn’t know enough to have an opinion of them. That was especially true for Khanna and Lee, who both drew blanks from more than 6 in 10 voters.

Other tidbits from the article:

- Scbiff leads Porter 42 - 17 among voters 65 and older
- Schiff leads Porter 27 - 19 among voters 50 - 64
- Porter leads Schiff 20 - 8 among voters 40 and under
- Porter holds big leads in OC and the Inland Empire. Schiff leads slightly in SF Bay, Central Coast and Central Valley. LA and San Diego are up in the air.

Does Porter win Vietnamese-Americans?

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Does anyone have a sense or prediction for which Republicans will run?

[Zedonathin2020]

Does anyone have a sense or prediction for which Republicans will run?

I don’t think any of the house delegation runs, as they’re either in Safe Seats, the most vulnerable seats in the house, or Kevin McCarthy.

Larry Elder COULD pull an Allan Fung and run, but I don’t think he wants to be seen as a perennial candidate.

So honestly I have no idea. It could literally be ANYBODY.

[Хahar 🤔]

Does anyone have a sense or prediction for which Republicans will run?

There has not been a serious Republican campaign for Senate in California since 2010. When I say "serious" I don't just mean that there hasn't been a candidate with any chance to win since then, although that's true; I mean that 2010 was the last time that a Republican whom anyone would have heard of at all decided to mount a campaign. Chuck DeVore, the assemblyman from Orange County who finished in third place in the 2010 Republican primary, was far more credible a candidate than any Republican to have run since.

I have not heard any indication that there will be anything but the same gadflies as usual. Maybe there'll be a guy who was in the state legislature fifteen years ago.

[Oryxslayer]

Does anyone have a sense or prediction for which Republicans will run?

There has not been a serious Republican campaign for Senate in California since 2010. When I say "serious" I don't just mean that there hasn't been a candidate with any chance to win since then, although that's true; I mean that 2010 was the last time that a Republican whom anyone would have heard of at all decided to mount a campaign. Chuck DeVore, the assemblyman from Orange County who finished in third place in the 2010 Republican primary, was far more credible a candidate than any Republican to have run since.

I have not heard any indication that there will be anything but the same gadflies as usual. Maybe there'll be a guy who was in the state legislature fifteen years ago.

I agree with everything here, just will add one thing. With three big-name current representatives running on the D side, all who have created decent tv or social media presence over the past few years, there is a decent chance a Conservative 'influencer' hops in cause they see the opportunity to 'own the Libs' from their perspective. Obviously this would not be a serious play for the office, but more a campaign designed to boost their own non-electoral profile while simply scoring perceived gotcha's on the 'liberal darlings.' Which is to say that everything you expressed it correct, but national GOP grassroots might still end up setting money on fire.

[brucejoel99]

Does anyone have a sense or prediction for which Republicans will run?

There has not been a serious Republican campaign for Senate in California since 2010. When I say "serious" I don't just mean that there hasn't been a candidate with any chance to win since then, although that's true; I mean that 2010 was the last time that a Republican whom anyone would have heard of at all decided to mount a campaign. Chuck DeVore, the assemblyman from Orange County who finished in third place in the 2010 Republican primary, was far more credible a candidate than any Republican to have run since.

I have not heard any indication that there will be anything but the same gadflies as usual. Maybe there'll be a guy who was in the state legislature fifteen years ago.

I agree with everything here, just will add one thing. With three big-name current representatives running on the D side, all who have created decent tv or social media presence over the past few years, there is a decent chance a Conservative 'influencer' hops in cause they see the opportunity to 'own the Libs' from their perspective. Obviously this would not be a serious play for the office, but more a campaign designed to boost their own non-electoral profile while simply scoring perceived gotcha's on the 'liberal darlings.' Which is to say that everything you expressed it correct, but national GOP grassroots might still end up setting money on fire.

Plus, Caruso may run as an "evolved" Republican-to-"Democrat" again like he did in LA.

[coloradocowboi]

Plus, Caruso may run as an "evolved" Republican-to-"Democrat" again like he did in LA.

No, def not. The only reason he ran for mayor of LA was so he could fast track his stupid little mall projects and continue to accumulate real estate capital. He knows he can’t win, and he also knows it’s a terrible job in these times

[brucejoel99]

Plus, Caruso may run as an "evolved" Republican-to-"Democrat" again like he did in LA.

No, def not. The only reason he ran for mayor of LA was so he could fast track his stupid little mall projects and continue to accumulate real estate capital. He knows he can’t win, and he also knows it’s a terrible job in these times

Idrk, I just figured because of this:

https://twitter.com/AsInMarx/status/1619759266331762688

[Pink Panther]

Plus, Caruso may run as an "evolved" Republican-to-"Democrat" again like he did in LA.

No, def not. The only reason he ran for mayor of LA was so he could fast track his stupid little mall projects and continue to accumulate real estate capital. He knows he can’t win, and he also knows it’s a terrible job in these times

Idrk, I just figured because of this:

https://twitter.com/AsInMarx/status/1619759266331762688

That moment when there are two Dwyane Johnson registrations.

[coloradocowboi]

That moment when there are two Dwyane Johnson registrations.

Which tells you how serious the Caruso registration is. For what it's worth, I'm v into LA politics (and unfortunately work in a roundabout way for Caruso, oops I mean USC) and have heard not even a single rumor.

[Mr. Smith]

Does anyone have a sense or prediction for which Republicans will run?

I don’t think any of the house delegation runs, as they’re either in Safe Seats, the most vulnerable seats in the house, or Kevin McCarthy.

Larry Elder COULD pull an Allan Fung and run, but I don’t think he wants to be seen as a perennial candidate.

So honestly I have no idea. It could literally be ANYBODY.

I don't think he minds.

[brucejoel99]

That moment when there are two Dwyane Johnson registrations.

Which tells you how serious the Caruso registration is. For what it's worth, I'm v into LA politics (and unfortunately work in a roundabout way for Caruso, oops I mean USC) and have heard not even a single rumor.

Hey hey hey, don't claim the Rock as a Californian, he & I literally live & vote in the same county & I need to be able to keep inhaling the hopium that he's about to primary Rick Scott!!