COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron

[ilikeverin]

https://twitter.com/politicalmath/status/1353821818449129473?s=20

I've been following these numbers too and have been very confused by them. I don't doubt that some parts of NY are running out of vaccines (Erie County has had to cancel appointments)... I'm wondering if the figures he's citing about the state running out of vaccines might just be ones administered by the state or by counties, and the vaccines that aren't being used are being administered by hospitals or pharmacies.

[jamestroll]

I WANT KIDS BACK IN SCHOOL NOW!!!

[It’s so Joever]

I WANT KIDS BACK IN SCHOOL NOW!!!

Ok.

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 1/25 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

ΔW Change: Comparisons of Weekly Day-to-day Growth or Decline of COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Comparing the numbers to the same day of last week, are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

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1/17: <Sunday>

• Cases: 24,482,050 (+176,007 | ΔW Change: ↓19.04% | Σ Increase: ↑0.72%)
• Deaths: 407,202 (+1,941 | ΔW Change: ↑8.13% | Σ Increase: ↑0.48%)

1/18: <M>

• Cases: 24,626,376 (+144,326 | ΔW Change: ↓36.10% | Σ Increase: ↑0.59%)
• Deaths: 408,620 (+1,418 | ΔW Change: ↓28.17% | Σ Increase: ↑0.35%)

1/19: <T>

• Cases: 24,806,964 (+180,588 | ΔW Change: ↓19.75% | Σ Increase: ↑0.73%)
• Deaths: 411,486 (+2,866 | ΔW Change: ↓34.11% | Σ Increase: ↑0.70%)

1/20: <W>

• Cases: 24,998,975 (+192,011 | ΔW Change: ↓22.61% | Σ Increase: ↑0.77%)
• Deaths: 415,894 (+4,408 | ΔW Change: ↑1.82% | Σ Increase: ↑1.07%)

1/21: <Þ>

• Cases: 25,196,086 (+197,111 | ΔW Change: ↓15.06% | Σ Increase: ↑0.79%)
• Deaths: 420,285 (+4,391 | ΔW Change: ↑7.99% | Σ Increase: ↑1.06%)

1/22: <F>

• Cases: 25,390,042 (+193,956 | ΔW Change: ↓23.65% | Σ Increase: ↑0.77%)
• Deaths: 424,177 (+3,892 | ΔW Change: ↑0.78% | Σ Increase: ↑0.93%)

1/23: <S>

• Cases: 25,566,789 (+176,747 | ΔW Change: ↓13.20% | Σ Increase: ↑0.82%)
• Deaths: 427,635 (+3,458 | ΔW Change: ↑1.56% | Σ Increase: ↑0.82%)

1/24 (Yesterday): <Sunday>

• Cases: 25,702,125 (+135,336 | ΔW Change: ↓23.11% | Σ Increase: ↑0.53%)
• Deaths: 429,490 (+1,855 | ΔW Change: ↓4.43% | Σ Increase: ↑0.43%)

1/25 (Today): <M>

• Cases: 25,861,597 (+159,472 | ΔW Change: ↑10.49% | Σ Increase: ↑0.62%)
• Deaths: 431,392 (+1,902 | ΔW Change: ↑34.13% | Σ Increase: ↑0.44%)

[jimrtex]

https://twitter.com/politicalmath/status/1353821818449129473?s=20

I've been following these numbers too and have been very confused by them. I don't doubt that some parts of NY are running out of vaccines (Erie County has had to cancel appointments)... I'm wondering if the figures he's citing about the state running out of vaccines might just be ones administered by the state or by counties, and the vaccines that aren't being used are being administered by hospitals or pharmacies.

Here is the daily report on vaccination.

https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations

Note the report is daily as of 6 AM. Hospitals and pharmacies are required to report to the state or other health authorities within 72 hours of administering. I'd guess that in NY, that NYS and NYC would be separate, and there might also be regional authorities.

The CDC report was originally supposed to be MWF. But that then switched to MTWTF, but they now appear to be reporting MTWTFSS. An odd artifact is that the number distributed has not bumped the last two weekends, while administration has increased daily. Maybe the vaccine is not being distributed on weekends because of the requirement for cold storage.

Here is a report from West Virginia that shows the rest of that shown on Twitter. Note the explanation for the 100% administration.

https://dhhr.wv.gov/COVID-19/Pages/default.aspx

It appears that West Virginia is administering their vaccinations at mass events in each county, though Cabell (Huntington) has three scheduled, and that may be true for Kanawha (Charleston) as well. Note the strong weekly pattern with peaks on Wednesday-Thursday each week.

Texas has an app that shows where you can get vaccinations.

https://tdem.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=3700a84845c5470cb0dc3ddace5c376b

There are 100s of locations. But if you switch to first dose availability in the upper right most disappear. I think initially they tried to distribute to every pharmacy and clinic, but only were able to do a few 100 for each, and it might have been hit or miss if people found  out about them. I think Texas is switching more to mass events.

There was a case in Houston where a doctor was doing mass vaccinations at a park, when he opened a Moderna vial (10-11 doses per vial, Pfizer is 6 or 7). An opened Moderna vial has a viability of about 6 hours. It was dark, the event had not been well publicized and the computers were not working. The doctor asked if any of the other health professionals or police doing traffic control had been inoculated. They had. So he started calling around trying to find people who qualified in groups 1A and 1B. He found a couple who were 96 and 88 and gave them each a shot. He used all but one shot, and when the last person did not show up, he gave it to his wife.

The next morning he went to work and logged all the shots. He also returned all the unopened vials. The event was not well publicized.

A week later he was fired. A week after that he was charged and this was carried by national media. He was apparently told he should have thrown the unused doses away.

[jamestroll]

I WANT KIDS BACK IN SCHOOL NOW!!!

Ok.

Though many restaurants in Fairfax County do not offer dine in service, they are legally allowed to and some do.

If they can be open... schools can be open!

Seeing closed elementary schools less than a block away from restaurants running wild breaks my heart for those poor kids. And I support both being open.

[Torrain]

I WANT KIDS BACK IN SCHOOL NOW!!!

Guys, I think we've found COVID-19's sock account.

[KaiserDave]

Cuomo is a horrible Governor.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Cuomo's status as the Good COVID Governor last spring looks quainter and quainter the more time passes. What a feckless monster.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Cuomo's status as the Good COVID Governor last spring looks quainter and quainter the more time passes. What a feckless monster.

I used to like him back last March, back when he vowed not to issue a lockdown. But that was before I discovered he sent covid patients to nursing homes.

[lfromnj]

Cuomo's status as the Good COVID Governor last spring looks quainter and quainter the more time passes. What a feckless monster.

Well he does really deserve that acting award for how he fooled the entire nation.

[Beet]

I hate to say it but they should be aiming at 4 to 5 million vaccinations a day, at least. Negotiating between 1 million and 1.5 million a day is too slow. The more time you give this virus to be out there, the faster new variants will develop. That's why you need "Shock and Awe" to beat it back as fast as possible.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I hate to say it but they should be aiming at 4 to 5 million vaccinations a day, at least. Negotiating between 1 million and 1.5 million a day is too slow. The more time you give this virus to be out there, the faster new variants will develop. That's why you need "Shock and Awe" to beat it back as fast as possible.

I'm still confused about whether Biden's goal is 100 million people vaccinated in 100 days or 100 doses (i.e. 50 million people) in 100 days.  

If it's the latter, that is way too slow, and we are already exceeding that number.  The former number should probably be our realistic goal, at least until more vaccines are approved in the US.

I believe we have contracts with Pfizer and Moderna for 200 million doses each to be fulfilled by July in regular increments.  This works out to about 200 million people in 200 days, which should be a large enough portion of the adult population to achieve herd immunity.  

I'm not sure it is possible for Moderna or Pfizer to produce more than they are already doing, and even they could do this, I'm not sure it would make sense to prioritize selling additional doses to the US compared to other parts of the world anyway.

[Roll Roons]

I hate to say it but they should be aiming at 4 to 5 million vaccinations a day, at least. Negotiating between 1 million and 1.5 million a day is too slow. The more time you give this virus to be out there, the faster new variants will develop. That's why you need "Shock and Awe" to beat it back as fast as possible.

I'm still confused about whether Biden's goal is 100 million people vaccinated in 100 days or 100 doses (i.e. 50 million people) in 100 days.  

If it's the latter, that is way too slow, and we are already exceeding that number.  The former number should probably be our realistic goal, at least until more vaccines are approved in the US.

I believe we have contracts with Pfizer and Moderna for 200 million doses each to be fulfilled by July in regular increments.  This works out to about 200 million people in 200 days, which should be a large enough portion of the adult population to achieve herd immunity.  

I'm not sure it is possible for Moderna or Pfizer to produce more than they are already doing, and even they could do this, I'm not sure it would make sense to prioritize selling additional doses to the US compared to other parts of the world anyway.

I would think it's the former goal. Also Johnson & Johnson could be a game changer.

[Not Me, Us]

Cuomo should be impeached. What a horrible man.

[Del Tachi]

Cuomo's status as the Good COVID Governor last spring looks quainter and quainter the more time passes. What a feckless monster.

Cuomo's response was just as bad then as it is now.  He allowed COVID+ patients into NY's state-run nursing homes (leading to some of the highest death rates in the world, much less the USA.)  That the mainstream networks and cable news channels uncritically covered his daily press conferences for several weeks-on-end shows how decrepit they are.

But hey, at least he won an Emmy!     

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/JonLemire/status/1354179975658811392

This will be huge if it actually comes to pass.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Over a week ago, my HMO sent me a home covid test, although I didn't ask for one. I did take the test, and today it came back negative.

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 1/26 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

ΔW Change: Comparisons of Weekly Day-to-day Growth or Decline of COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Comparing the numbers to the same day of last week, are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

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1/17: <Sunday>

• Cases: 24,482,050 (+176,007 | ΔW Change: ↓19.04% | Σ Increase: ↑0.72%)
• Deaths: 407,202 (+1,941 | ΔW Change: ↑8.13% | Σ Increase: ↑0.48%)

1/18: <M>

• Cases: 24,626,376 (+144,326 | ΔW Change: ↓36.10% | Σ Increase: ↑0.59%)
• Deaths: 408,620 (+1,418 | ΔW Change: ↓28.17% | Σ Increase: ↑0.35%)

1/19: <T>

• Cases: 24,806,964 (+180,588 | ΔW Change: ↓19.75% | Σ Increase: ↑0.73%)
• Deaths: 411,486 (+2,866 | ΔW Change: ↓34.11% | Σ Increase: ↑0.70%)

1/20: <W>

• Cases: 24,998,975 (+192,011 | ΔW Change: ↓22.61% | Σ Increase: ↑0.77%)
• Deaths: 415,894 (+4,408 | ΔW Change: ↑1.82% | Σ Increase: ↑1.07%)

1/21: <Þ>

• Cases: 25,196,086 (+197,111 | ΔW Change: ↓15.06% | Σ Increase: ↑0.79%)
• Deaths: 420,285 (+4,391 | ΔW Change: ↑7.99% | Σ Increase: ↑1.06%)

1/22: <F>

• Cases: 25,390,042 (+193,956 | ΔW Change: ↓23.65% | Σ Increase: ↑0.77%)
• Deaths: 424,177 (+3,892 | ΔW Change: ↑0.78% | Σ Increase: ↑0.93%)

1/23: <S>

• Cases: 25,566,789 (+176,747 | ΔW Change: ↓13.20% | Σ Increase: ↑0.82%)
• Deaths: 427,635 (+3,458 | ΔW Change: ↑1.56% | Σ Increase: ↑0.82%)

1/24: <Sunday>

• Cases: 25,702,125 (+135,336 | ΔW Change: ↓23.11% | Σ Increase: ↑0.53%)
• Deaths: 429,490 (+1,855 | ΔW Change: ↓4.43% | Σ Increase: ↑0.43%)

1/25 (Yesterday): <M>

• Cases: 25,861,597 (+159,472 | ΔW Change: ↑10.49% | Σ Increase: ↑0.62%)
• Deaths: 431,392 (+1,902 | ΔW Change: ↑34.13% | Σ Increase: ↑0.44%)

1/26 (Today): <T>

• Cases: 26,011,222 (+149,625 | ΔW Change: ↓17.15% | Σ Increase: ↑0.58%)
• Deaths: 435,452 (+4,060 | ΔW Change: ↑41.66% | Σ Increase: ↑0.94%)

[Inmate Trump]

Cuomo's status as the Good COVID Governor last spring looks quainter and quainter the more time passes. What a feckless monster.

Cuomo's response was just as bad then as it is now.  He allowed COVID+ patients into NY's state-run nursing homes (leading to some of the highest death rates in the world, much less the USA.)  That the mainstream networks and cable news channels uncritically covered his daily press conferences for several weeks-on-end shows how decrepit they are.

But hey, at least he won an Emmy!     

I can't believe I actually agree with you on something.

Cuomo's actions re: nursing homes are horrible and earn him a spot alongside Trump as a terrible leader.

[Former President tack50]

I WANT KIDS BACK IN SCHOOL NOW!!!

I actually took a deep look at US Covid statistics, so I am more confident than usual to answer this I may be doing the math wrong.

The state of Virginia seems to have somewhere around 820 cases / 100k people over the past 14 days (cumulative). That is an extreme level of risk, and even I (who generally support reopening schools) think that is excessive enough to close schools.

In fact, iirc you live in NOVA if I am not mistaken right? Using Fairfax County as the reference (which seems to be doing the best of the 3 main counties), there were 6854 cases reported over the past 2 weeks. That translates to 623 cases / 100k people over the past 14 days (cumulative); which is still not safe at all.

Honestly it is hard to draw a line as to when schools should be closed. My personal gut feeling was that they should be closed when cases exceed 500 cases/ 100k over 14 days. However it seems here they are remaining open with twice, or in some cases even 3 times that; so it's hard to say.

I will still stick with my 500 cases level; which means Virginia schools should remain closed. But it really depends on the level of risk people are comfortable with.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I WANT KIDS BACK IN SCHOOL NOW!!!

I actually took a deep look at US Covid statistics, so I am more confident than usual to answer this I may be doing the math wrong.

The state of Virginia seems to have somewhere around 820 cases / 100k people over the past 14 days (cumulative). That is an extreme level of risk, and even I (who generally support reopening schools) think that is excessive enough to close schools.

In fact, iirc you live in NOVA if I am not mistaken right? Using Fairfax County as the reference (which seems to be doing the best of the 3 main counties), there were 6854 cases reported over the past 2 weeks. That translates to 623 cases / 100k people over the past 14 days (cumulative); which is still not safe at all.

Honestly it is hard to draw a line as to when schools should be closed. My personal gut feeling was that they should be closed when cases exceed 500 cases/ 100k over 14 days. However it seems here they are remaining open with twice, or in some cases even 3 times that; so it's hard to say.

I will still stick with my 500 cases level; which means Virginia schools should remain closed. But it really depends on the level of risk people are comfortable with.

I don’t think the case levels of the entire population of a region should matter very much once the teachers and staff have been vaccinated.

[Former President tack50]

I don’t think the case levels of the entire population of a region should matter very much once the teachers and staff have been vaccinated.

I mean, kids can still transmit the disease to each other, and to their parents. Vaccinations help, but given kids will be the last to be vaccinated (if at all, I think current vaccines aren't authorized for kids) it's still a serious risk

Vaccinations probably increase the thresholds where it is safe, but it doesn't fully eliminate the risks.

[jimrtex]

I hate to say it but they should be aiming at 4 to 5 million vaccinations a day, at least. Negotiating between 1 million and 1.5 million a day is too slow. The more time you give this virus to be out there, the faster new variants will develop. That's why you need "Shock and Awe" to beat it back as fast as possible.

I'm still confused about whether Biden's goal is 100 million people vaccinated in 100 days or 100 doses (i.e. 50 million people) in 100 days.  

If it's the latter, that is way too slow, and we are already exceeding that number.  The former number should probably be our realistic goal, at least until more vaccines are approved in the US.

I believe we have contracts with Pfizer and Moderna for 200 million doses each to be fulfilled by July in regular increments.  This works out to about 200 million people in 200 days, which should be a large enough portion of the adult population to achieve herd immunity.  

I'm not sure it is possible for Moderna or Pfizer to produce more than they are already doing, and even they could do this, I'm not sure it would make sense to prioritize selling additional doses to the US compared to other parts of the world anyway.

Over the last 22 days, 1.317M/day have been distributed, vs. 0.862N/day administered.

It may be that distribution is being delayed due to cold storage requirements. There is currently a 19-day supply that has been distributed based on the average injection rate over the past 7 days.

On the glass half full version, 11 states have now administered at least a first shot to more persons than the total case load over the past year).

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/politicalmath/status/1353821818449129473?s=20

Jim Justice is corrupt, but he's actually run one of the more competent responses of any Republican governor to the pandemic.