COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron

[Hnv1]

are the numbers lagging due to Christmas?

[DINGO Joe]

are the numbers lagging due to Christmas?

Of course.  New Year's will disrupt reporting too.

[Sir Mohamed]

are the numbers lagging due to Christmas?

I would assume reporting is lagging. Once the reporting from recent days is done, there is going to be a massive spike, with dispropertional number of deaths a few weeks from now. It's possible Inauguration week will be one of the most deadly ever.

[It’s so Joever]

We don’t know exactly how bad the post holiday spike will be. I would caution against predicting the worst case yet.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

https://twitter.com/jimsciutto/status/1343575882619908096

[GP270watch]

This dude basically spent a year of his presidential term at the golf course, what a clown show.

[GeorgiaModerate]

An anecdote: today I went to our HMO pharmacy to pick up a prescription.  There's a drive-through COVID testing site with two lanes inside the medical center parking deck.  When I've been there in the past, there have been at most a few cars waiting, usually zero.  Today the line for testing was backed up out the deck and winding through the parking lot, with security guards giving out numbers and maintaining order.  There's obviously a much higher demand for testing now.

[Progressive Pessimist]

This dude basically spent a year of his presidential term at the golf course, what a clown show.

But Obama!

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 12/28 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

ΔW Change: Comparisons of Weekly Day-to-day Growth or Decline of COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Comparing the numbers to the same day of last week, are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

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12/20: <Sunday>

• Cases: 18,267,579 (+189,811 | ΔW Change: ↑1.02% | Σ Increase: ↑1.06%)
• Deaths: 324,869 (+1,468 | ΔW Change: ↑6.61% | Σ Increase: ↑0.80%)

12/21: <M>

• Cases: 18,473,716 (+206,137 | ΔW Change: ↑0.28% | Σ Increase: ↑1.13%)
• Deaths: 326,772 (+1,903 | ΔW Change: ↑16.75% | Σ Increase: ↑0.59%)

12/22: <T>

• Cases: 18,684,628 (+210,912 | ΔW Change: ↑4.87% | Σ Increase: ↑1.14%)
• Deaths: 330,824 (+4,052 | ΔW Change: ↑35.79% | Σ Increase: ↑1.24%)

12/23: <W>

• Cases: 18,917,152 (+232,524 | ΔW Change: ↓6.50% | Σ Increase: ↑1.24%)
• Deaths: 334,218 (+3,394 | ΔW Change: ↓3.14% | Σ Increase: ↑1.06%)

12/24 (Holiday): <Þ>

• Cases: 19,111,326 (+194,174 | ΔW Change: ↓17.07% | Σ Increase: ↑1.03%)
• Deaths: 337,066 (+2,848 | ΔW Change: ↓15.01% | Σ Increase: ↑0.85%)

12/25 (Holiday): <F>

• Cases: 19,210,166 (+98.840 | ΔW Change: ↓62.21% | Σ Increase: ↑0.52%)
• Deaths: 338,263 (+1,197 | ΔW Change: ↓58.96% | Σ Increase: ↑0.36%)

12/26: <S>

• Cases: 19,433,847 (+223,681 | ΔW Change: ↑18.09% | Σ Increase: ↑1.16%)
• Deaths: 339,921 (+1,658 | ΔW Change: ↓35.39% | Σ Increase: ↑0.49%)

12/27 (Yesterday): <Sunday>

• Cases: 19,573,847 (+140,000 | ΔW Change: ↓26.24% | Σ Increase: ↑0.72%)
• Deaths: 341,138 (+1,217 | ΔW Change: ↓17.10% | Σ Increase: ↑0.36%)

12/28 (Today): <M>

• Cases: 19,781,624 (+207,777 | ΔW Change: ↑0.80% | Σ Increase: ↑1.06%)
• Deaths: 343,182 (+2,044 | ΔW Change: ↑7.41% | Σ Increase: ↑0.60%)

[It’s so Joever]

I’m somewhat skeptical of the numbers from Dec 22 to Jan 1/2. The holidays really are a time when testing will likely be different and I am not sure if directly comparing them to the more “normal” days prior really is a good metric.

I just hope we get a more clear picture of where this is moving the week after New Years.
The numbers should catch up by then.

Good news is that Colorado has been locally seeing drops.
I hope this continues even with ski season coming (ugh, I hate it even in normal years)

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 12/29 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

ΔW Change: Comparisons of Weekly Day-to-day Growth or Decline of COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Comparing the numbers to the same day of last week, are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

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12/20: <Sunday>

• Cases: 18,267,579 (+189,811 | ΔW Change: ↑1.02% | Σ Increase: ↑1.06%)
• Deaths: 324,869 (+1,468 | ΔW Change: ↑6.61% | Σ Increase: ↑0.80%)

12/21: <M>

• Cases: 18,473,716 (+206,137 | ΔW Change: ↑0.28% | Σ Increase: ↑1.13%)
• Deaths: 326,772 (+1,903 | ΔW Change: ↑16.75% | Σ Increase: ↑0.59%)

12/22: <T>

• Cases: 18,684,628 (+210,912 | ΔW Change: ↑4.87% | Σ Increase: ↑1.14%)
• Deaths: 330,824 (+4,052 | ΔW Change: ↑35.79% | Σ Increase: ↑1.24%)

12/23: <W>

• Cases: 18,917,152 (+232,524 | ΔW Change: ↓6.50% | Σ Increase: ↑1.24%)
• Deaths: 334,218 (+3,394 | ΔW Change: ↓3.14% | Σ Increase: ↑1.06%)

12/24 (Holiday): <Þ>

• Cases: 19,111,326 (+194,174 | ΔW Change: ↓17.07% | Σ Increase: ↑1.03%)
• Deaths: 337,066 (+2,848 | ΔW Change: ↓15.01% | Σ Increase: ↑0.85%)

12/25 (Holiday): <F>

• Cases: 19,210,166 (+98.840 | ΔW Change: ↓62.21% | Σ Increase: ↑0.52%)
• Deaths: 338,263 (+1,197 | ΔW Change: ↓58.96% | Σ Increase: ↑0.36%)

12/26: <S>

• Cases: 19,433,847 (+223,681 | ΔW Change: ↑18.09% | Σ Increase: ↑1.16%)
• Deaths: 339,921 (+1,658 | ΔW Change: ↓35.39% | Σ Increase: ↑0.49%)

12/27: <Sunday>

• Cases: 19,573,847 (+140,000 | ΔW Change: ↓26.24% | Σ Increase: ↑0.72%)
• Deaths: 341,138 (+1,217 | ΔW Change: ↓17.10% | Σ Increase: ↑0.36%)

12/28 (Yesterday): <M>

• Cases: 19,781,624 (+207,777 | ΔW Change: ↑0.80% | Σ Increase: ↑1.06%)
• Deaths: 343,182 (+2,044 | ΔW Change: ↑7.41% | Σ Increase: ↑0.60%)

12/29 (Today): <T>

• Cases: 19,977,704 (+196,080 | ΔW Change: ↓7.03% | Σ Increase: ↑0.99%)
• Deaths: 346,579 (+3,397 | ΔW Change: ↓16.16% | Σ Increase: ↑0.99%)

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

The US is vaccinating people way too slowly. A top doctor says the federal government is to blame.

Dr. Ashish K. Jha, a top US doctor and the dean of Brown University School of Public Health, on Tuesday shared in a Twitter thread why he believed the rollout of COVID-19 vaccines in the US was flawed, and he said the issue begins with the federal government.

The US Food and Drug Administration in December authorised two different vaccines for COVID-19 — one created by Moderna and the National Institutes of Health, and another created by Pfizer and BioNTech — for emergency use in the US.

While people across the US have already begun to receive the vaccine, a limited supply means the vaccine won’t be widely available to all who need it well into 2021, prolonging the pandemic that has so far killed more than 336,000 people in the US, according to data from Johns Hopkins University.

According to an analysis published Tuesday by NBC News, at the current pace, it could take the US nearly a decade to vaccinate enough Americans to meaningfully bring the pandemic under control. The White House previously said it aimed to vaccinate 80% of Americans by the end of June, which would require more than 3 million vaccinations per day, according to the report. So far, the US has vaccinated just about 2 million people in 16 days.

More Trump administration incompetence, or a deliberate effort to sabotage the Biden administration at the cost of American lives? Given the last four years, either (or even both) seem plausible.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Fortunately, we have a new administration coming in three weeks. Biden has pledged 100 million vaccines administered in his first 100 days. That won’t quite get us to herd immunity, but it should reduce deaths by more than 90% if allocated correctly.

[jimrtex]

The US is vaccinating people way too slowly. A top doctor says the federal government is to blame.

Dr. Ashish K. Jha, a top US doctor and the dean of Brown University School of Public Health, on Tuesday shared in a Twitter thread why he believed the rollout of COVID-19 vaccines in the US was flawed, and he said the issue begins with the federal government.

The US Food and Drug Administration in December authorised two different vaccines for COVID-19 — one created by Moderna and the National Institutes of Health, and another created by Pfizer and BioNTech — for emergency use in the US.

While people across the US have already begun to receive the vaccine, a limited supply means the vaccine won’t be widely available to all who need it well into 2021, prolonging the pandemic that has so far killed more than 336,000 people in the US, according to data from Johns Hopkins University.

According to an analysis published Tuesday by NBC News, at the current pace, it could take the US nearly a decade to vaccinate enough Americans to meaningfully bring the pandemic under control. The White House previously said it aimed to vaccinate 80% of Americans by the end of June, which would require more than 3 million vaccinations per day, according to the report. So far, the US has vaccinated just about 2 million people in 16 days.

More Trump administration incompetence, or a deliberate effort to sabotage the Biden administration at the cost of American lives? Given the last four years, either (or even both) seem plausible.

Flawed analysis by NBC.

It is unlikely that the aim was to vaccinate 80% of the US population by June, but rather 80% of the adult population, or around 200 million persons.

They also appear to be counting doses rather than persons vaccinated.

In essence they are projecting that initial doses will be administered for 21 days, and then for the next 21 days no first doses will be administered, as they go back and administer the second dose.

[Crumpets]

Reuters continues to be about as misleading as possible with its original fact wire reports, smh.

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1344201601066692609

[2952-0-0]

Reuters continues to be about as misleading as possible with its original fact wire reports, smh.

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1344201601066692609

Trump was right. The media are the enemy of the people.

[emailking]

I don't see why it's a story since it's going to happen maybe 10s of thousands of times, but the headline seems accurate?

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I believe the trial evidence showed that the first dose of the vaccine didn’t even start to become effective until after about 10 days.  Nevermind the obvious fact that 95% effective != 100% effective.

[Crumpets]

I don't see why it's a story since it's going to happen maybe 10s of thousands of times, but the headline seems accurate?

The problem is that the headline doesn't specify the person had only gotten their first dose and it's not unreasonable for someone to interpret the headline as saying that the vaccine doesn't protect you from getting COVID. It's extremely irresponsible wording from Reuters.

And this is a pretty common thing for Reuters. I've seen headlines like "Syrian air defenses successfully down dozens Israeli missiles: source" and they think they're covering themselves by adding the "source" at the end, just like they add the "ABC" at the end here, even if that source is Syrian state news. Instead of being objective, all it does is give equal credence to reports from opinion pieces, propaganda, mainstream, and alternate media, as if all are equally trustworthy and don't need any additional context.

tl;dr AP does it better.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Fortunately, we have a new administration coming in three weeks. Biden has pledged 100 million vaccines administered in his first 100 days. That won’t quite get us to herd immunity, but it should reduce deaths by more than 90% if allocated correctly.

Biden can make promises, but it's up to the states to actually distribute them.  Most states are below 1% of population vaccinated, with WV and SD at the top with just over 2%.
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-12-29/u-s-vaccinations-at-200-000-a-day-run-far-short-of-warp-speed

https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1344406149202849794?s=20

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 12/30 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

ΔW Change: Comparisons of Weekly Day-to-day Growth or Decline of COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Comparing the numbers to the same day of last week, are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

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12/20: <Sunday>

• Cases: 18,267,579 (+189,811 | ΔW Change: ↑1.02% | Σ Increase: ↑1.06%)
• Deaths: 324,869 (+1,468 | ΔW Change: ↑6.61% | Σ Increase: ↑0.80%)

12/21: <M>

• Cases: 18,473,716 (+206,137 | ΔW Change: ↑0.28% | Σ Increase: ↑1.13%)
• Deaths: 326,772 (+1,903 | ΔW Change: ↑16.75% | Σ Increase: ↑0.59%)

12/22: <T>

• Cases: 18,684,628 (+210,912 | ΔW Change: ↑4.87% | Σ Increase: ↑1.14%)
• Deaths: 330,824 (+4,052 | ΔW Change: ↑35.79% | Σ Increase: ↑1.24%)

12/23: <W>

• Cases: 18,917,152 (+232,524 | ΔW Change: ↓6.50% | Σ Increase: ↑1.24%)
• Deaths: 334,218 (+3,394 | ΔW Change: ↓3.14% | Σ Increase: ↑1.06%)

12/24 (Holiday): <Þ>

• Cases: 19,111,326 (+194,174 | ΔW Change: ↓17.07% | Σ Increase: ↑1.03%)
• Deaths: 337,066 (+2,848 | ΔW Change: ↓15.01% | Σ Increase: ↑0.85%)

12/25 (Holiday): <F>

• Cases: 19,210,166 (+98.840 | ΔW Change: ↓62.21% | Σ Increase: ↑0.52%)
• Deaths: 338,263 (+1,197 | ΔW Change: ↓58.96% | Σ Increase: ↑0.36%)

12/26: <S>

• Cases: 19,433,847 (+223,681 | ΔW Change: ↑18.09% | Σ Increase: ↑1.16%)
• Deaths: 339,921 (+1,658 | ΔW Change: ↓35.39% | Σ Increase: ↑0.49%)

12/27: <Sunday>

• Cases: 19,573,847 (+140,000 | ΔW Change: ↓26.24% | Σ Increase: ↑0.72%)
• Deaths: 341,138 (+1,217 | ΔW Change: ↓17.10% | Σ Increase: ↑0.36%)

12/28: <M>

• Cases: 19,781,624 (+207,777 | ΔW Change: ↑0.80% | Σ Increase: ↑1.06%)
• Deaths: 343,182 (+2,044 | ΔW Change: ↑7.41% | Σ Increase: ↑0.60%)

12/29 (Yesterday): <T>

• Cases: 19,977,704 (+196,080 | ΔW Change: ↓7.03% | Σ Increase: ↑0.99%)
• Deaths: 346,579 (+3,397 | ΔW Change: ↓16.16% | Σ Increase: ↑0.99%)

12/30 (Today): <W>

• Cases: 20,216,991 (+239,287 | ΔW Change: ↑2.91% | Σ Increase: ↑1.20%)
• Deaths: 350,778 (+4,199 | ΔW Change: ↑23.72% | Σ Increase: ↑1.21%)

[jimrtex]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 12/30 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

ΔW Change: Comparisons of Weekly Day-to-day Growth or Decline of COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Comparing the numbers to the same day of last week, are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

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12/20: <Sunday>

• Cases: 18,267,579 (+189,811 | ΔW Change: ↑1.02% | Σ Increase: ↑1.06%)
• Deaths: 324,869 (+1,468 | ΔW Change: ↑6.61% | Σ Increase: ↑0.80%)

12/21: <M>

• Cases: 18,473,716 (+206,137 | ΔW Change: ↑0.28% | Σ Increase: ↑1.13%)
• Deaths: 326,772 (+1,903 | ΔW Change: ↑16.75% | Σ Increase: ↑0.59%)

12/22: <T>

• Cases: 18,684,628 (+210,912 | ΔW Change: ↑4.87% | Σ Increase: ↑1.14%)
• Deaths: 330,824 (+4,052 | ΔW Change: ↑35.79% | Σ Increase: ↑1.24%)

12/23: <W>

• Cases: 18,917,152 (+232,524 | ΔW Change: ↓6.50% | Σ Increase: ↑1.24%)
• Deaths: 334,218 (+3,394 | ΔW Change: ↓3.14% | Σ Increase: ↑1.06%)

12/24 (Holiday): <Þ>

• Cases: 19,111,326 (+194,174 | ΔW Change: ↓17.07% | Σ Increase: ↑1.03%)
• Deaths: 337,066 (+2,848 | ΔW Change: ↓15.01% | Σ Increase: ↑0.85%)

12/25 (Holiday): <F>

• Cases: 19,210,166 (+98.840 | ΔW Change: ↓62.21% | Σ Increase: ↑0.52%)
• Deaths: 338,263 (+1,197 | ΔW Change: ↓58.96% | Σ Increase: ↑0.36%)

12/26: <S>

• Cases: 19,433,847 (+223,681 | ΔW Change: ↑18.09% | Σ Increase: ↑1.16%)
• Deaths: 339,921 (+1,658 | ΔW Change: ↓35.39% | Σ Increase: ↑0.49%)

12/27: <Sunday>

• Cases: 19,573,847 (+140,000 | ΔW Change: ↓26.24% | Σ Increase: ↑0.72%)
• Deaths: 341,138 (+1,217 | ΔW Change: ↓17.10% | Σ Increase: ↑0.36%)

12/28: <M>

• Cases: 19,781,624 (+207,777 | ΔW Change: ↑0.80% | Σ Increase: ↑1.06%)
• Deaths: 343,182 (+2,044 | ΔW Change: ↑7.41% | Σ Increase: ↑0.60%)

12/29 (Yesterday): <T>

• Cases: 19,977,704 (+196,080 | ΔW Change: ↓7.03% | Σ Increase: ↑0.99%)
• Deaths: 346,579 (+3,397 | ΔW Change: ↓16.16% | Σ Increase: ↑0.99%)

12/30 (Today): <W>

• Cases: 20,216,991 (+239,287 | ΔW Change: ↑2.91% | Σ Increase: ↑1.20%)
• Deaths: 350,778 (+4,199 | ΔW Change: ↑23.72% | Σ Increase: ↑1.21%)

You might want to incorporate this data in your reports.

https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations

This only updates MWF, and they will skip holidays - at least according to notes that were present before Wednesday's update. The map and results are new with the Wednesday update. so this is probably a work in progress. The early notes also said this likely lagged actual vaccinations by a few days.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

with WV and SD at the top with just over 2%.

So now can we all stop dumping on these states and acting like they're full of reactionary weirdoes just because they didn't lock down harder? Remember, Bernie Sanders won every county in West Virginia in 2016.

Instead of blaming covid on some farmer in South Dakota who wasn't wearing a mask when he plowed his field, blame the FDA for declaring that it's not approving the Oxford vaccine until April (even though Britain already approved it yesterday).

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/SarahBeckman3/status/1344664776601952256

That positivity rate...good Lord.

Here in Georgia, most of the hospitals have full ERs and ICUs with COVID patients.  And yet there will be idiots going out tonight to New Year's Eve parties.

[It’s so Joever]

with WV and SD at the top with just over 2%.

So now can we all stop dumping on these states and acting like they're full of reactionary weirdoes just because they didn't lock down harder? Remember, Bernie Sanders won every county in West Virginia in 2016.

Instead of blaming covid on some farmer in South Dakota who wasn't wearing a mask when he plowed his field, blame the FDA for declaring that it's not approving the Oxford vaccine until April (even though Britain already approved it yesterday).

I get it, you don’t want people to take responsibility for killing their neighbors.