COVID-19 Megathread 5: The Trumps catch COVID-19

[Inmate Trump]

Are we ever going to get over this?

It’s only been 5-6 months but it’s really wearing on my mental stability. It’s hard to see any light at the end of this covid tunnel.

I wish people would wear freakin masks. We would be over this a lot sooner.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Are we ever going to get over this?

It’s only been 5-6 months but it’s really wearing on my mental stability. It’s hard to see any light at the end of this covid tunnel.

I wish people would wear freakin masks. We would be over this a lot sooner.

I don't see how you can look at this graph and not see light at the end of the tunnel.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Are we ever going to get over this?

It’s only been 5-6 months but it’s really wearing on my mental stability. It’s hard to see any light at the end of this covid tunnel.

I wish people would wear freakin masks. We would be over this a lot sooner.

I know it's a long haul, but eventually there will a vaccine and this will become something manageable.  It will probably never go away completely, but it will likely become a part of life similar to the annual flu -- a concern, but not a crisis.

Will things be mostly back to normal in a month?  No.  Six months?  Maybe.  A year?  Very likely yes.  Just try to hang in there.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Are we ever going to get over this?

Don't worry, everyone I know is ready. The number of deaths is far less than what it was in April.

The only reason we're not over it is the media's irresponsible and malicious fearmongering.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Are we ever going to get over this?

Don't worry, everyone I know is ready. The number of deaths is far less than what it was in April.

The only reason we're not over it is the media's irresponsible and malicious fearmongering.

Yeah, the media sure is causing all those hospitalizations in Texas, Arizona, etc.

[Dr. Arch]

Are we ever going to get over this?

Don't worry, everyone I know is ready. The number of deaths is far less than what it was in April.

The only reason we're not over it is the media's irresponsible and malicious fearmongering.

"Great" for the people you know, but the general public is more responsible.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

https://mobile.twitter.com/tbtnewspaper/status/1280245096009674753

[GeorgiaModerate]

The mayor of Atlanta, and a possible running mate for Joe Biden:

https://twitter.com/KeishaBottoms/status/1280256462674104321

[Hammy]

Are we ever going to get over this?

It’s only been 5-6 months but it’s really wearing on my mental stability. It’s hard to see any light at the end of this covid tunnel.

I wish people would wear freakin masks. We would be over this a lot sooner.

I don't see how you can look at this graph and not see light at the end of the tunnel.

Deaths lag by 2-4 weeks. I remember back when this started people were making the same claim that its not that bad, it wont get that bad, look at the number of cases vs deaths etc and then the number of people dying caught up.

[wbrocks67]

God, some of the people in here are downright atrocious.

[rob in cal]

Do the hospitalization numbers usually refer to people who are specifically in the hospital for covid reasons, or do they also refer to people in the hospital for other reasons who happen to also have covid?

[jamestroll]

I am adamant that shutting the economy is not the answer. But we have a reached a point in which travel to and from Texas, Florida and Arizona should be banned for 30 to 45 days as well as stay at home orders for all three states.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Are we ever going to get over this?

It’s only been 5-6 months but it’s really wearing on my mental stability. It’s hard to see any light at the end of this covid tunnel.

I wish people would wear freakin masks. We would be over this a lot sooner.

I don't see how you can look at this graph and not see light at the end of the tunnel.

Deaths lag by 2-4 weeks. I remember back when this started people were making the same claim that its not that bad, it wont get that bad, look at the number of cases vs deaths etc and then the number of people dying caught up.

A month ago, when cases started rising and deaths were falling, people said that deaths lag by two weeks.
Then two weeks later, when cases were still rising and deaths were still falling, people started saying that deaths lag by four weeks.
Now that deaths are still falling after more than a month of rising cases, I’m hearing people say that deaths lag by eight weeks.

None of these people have done the analysis.  Check the modelling I did in this thread, especially replies 3880, 3967, 3968, and 3996.

To the extent that deaths lag cases, it is by 7-14 days.  There is no evidence of lag greater than 14 days.  And even this lag is countered by an overall downward time trend completely independent of cases.

[Inmate Trump]

I am adamant that shutting the economy is not the answer. But we have a reached a point in which travel to and from Texas, Florida and Arizona should be banned for 30 to 45 days as well as stay at home orders for all three states.

Masks should be mandatory nationwide when going out in public.

[Damocles]

Masks should be mandatory nationwide when going out in public.

This. There’s no excuse. We have known about how it spreads for months now. Wearing a bit of cloth and wire over your face in public is a tiny price to pay for tens of thousands of lives saved. The fact that some still object to it is more a confirmation of their infantile attitude than it is genuine concern for the health of Americans.

[Calthrina950]

I am adamant that shutting the economy is not the answer. But we have a reached a point in which travel to and from Texas, Florida and Arizona should be banned for 30 to 45 days as well as stay at home orders for all three states.

Masks should be mandatory nationwide when going out in public.

I've started to move towards this viewpoint as well, after initially expressing my opposition to such mandates from government (though I would still prefer that businesses mandate them). I came back from work not too long ago, and as I've noted on here before, the number of people not wearing masks absolutely frustrates me. 40-50% of customers are not wearing them, and many of my fellow employees do not bother to wear their masks when they are not on the clock. I saw at least six of them going around, through the store, maskless, when they were on their breaks or whatever.

And what makes it doubly ironic is that my store posted signs last week saying that masks are required "per local ordinance" (even though no such order has been issued in El Paso County). If it weren't for Governor Polis' order back in late April, the vast majority of the employees at that store would be gladly going about maskless. They simply do not care. Many of them are my generation (in their teens and twenties), and they think that they are invincible to this virus. It's absolutely frustrating that there are so many ignorant people in this country.

[Damocles]

I've started to move towards this viewpoint as well, after initially expressing my opposition to such mandates from government (though I would still prefer that businesses mandate them). I came back from work not too long, and as I've noted on here before, the number of people not wearing masks absolutely frustrates me. 40-50% of customers are not wearing them, and many of my fellow employees do not bother to wear their masks when they are not on the clock. I saw at least six of them going around, through the store, maskless, when they were on their breaks or whatever.

And what makes it doubly ironic is that my store posted signs last week saying that masks are required "per local ordinance" (even though no such order has been issued in El Paso County). If it weren't for Governor Polis' order back in late April, the vast majority of the employees at that store would be gladly going about maskless. They simply do not care. Many of them are my generation (in their teens and twenties), and they think that they are invincible to this virus. It's absolutely frustrating that there are so many ignorant people in this country.

One would think that object permanence would be readily understood. It’s something we’re taught as toddlers. The fact that mommy covers her face in her hands doesn’t mean she went away when playing peekaboo.

These people are less competent than your average first grader.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Just enact my "stay outside" order already.

If any more orders need to be given, they need to at least be fun. People need to go to the beach, the pool, the park, a bubble gum blowing contest, or some other outdoor activity.

[Calthrina950]

I've started to move towards this viewpoint as well, after initially expressing my opposition to such mandates from government (though I would still prefer that businesses mandate them). I came back from work not too long, and as I've noted on here before, the number of people not wearing masks absolutely frustrates me. 40-50% of customers are not wearing them, and many of my fellow employees do not bother to wear their masks when they are not on the clock. I saw at least six of them going around, through the store, maskless, when they were on their breaks or whatever.

And what makes it doubly ironic is that my store posted signs last week saying that masks are required "per local ordinance" (even though no such order has been issued in El Paso County). If it weren't for Governor Polis' order back in late April, the vast majority of the employees at that store would be gladly going about maskless. They simply do not care. Many of them are my generation (in their teens and twenties), and they think that they are invincible to this virus. It's absolutely frustrating that there are so many ignorant people in this country.

One would think that object permanence would be readily understood. It’s something we’re taught as toddlers. The fact that mommy covers her face in her hands doesn’t mean she went away when playing peekaboo.

These people are less competent than your average first grader.

100% agree with you. I can't stand many of my co-workers anyhow, though I've generally concealed my dislike from them (or at least have kept my distance from them). I was furious to see them going about as if things are normal. Among those who have been maskless have been my department's supervisor and one of the head cashiers. In fact, the latter took off her mask whenever she went on break or lunch, and only put it back on when on the clock.

But as I've said before, many people seem to have an innate distrust of the "experts", or they simply don't like being told what to do. It shouldn't be much to ask someone to wear a piece of cloth over their face.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/ianbremmer/status/1280282234206007296

[Damocles]

https://twitter.com/ianbremmer/status/1280282234206007296

As I said: object permanence. How is this so hard for so many people to understand?

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 7/6 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

Δ Change: Day-by-day Growth or Decline or COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

<Last Numbers for 3/26-3/28 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 3/29-4/4 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/5-4/11 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/12-4/18 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/19-4/25 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 4/26-5/2 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/3-5/9 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/10-5/16 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/17-5/23 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/24-5/30 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/31-6/6 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 6/7-6/13 in this post>

6/14: <Sunday>

• Cases: 2,162,144 (+19,920 | Δ Change: ↓21.27% | Σ Increase: ↑0.93%)
• Deaths: 117,853 (+326 | Δ Change: ↓53.56% | Σ Increase: ↑0.28%)

6/15:

• Cases: 2,182,950 (+20,806 | Δ Change: ↑4.45% | Σ Increase: ↑0.96%)
• Deaths: 118,283 (+430 | Δ Change: ↑31.90% | Σ Increase: ↑0.36%)

6/16:

• Cases: 2,208,400 (+25,450 | Δ Change: ↑22.32% | Σ Increase: ↑1.17%)
• Deaths: 119,132 (+849 | Δ Change: ↑97.44% | Σ Increase: ↑0.72%)

6/17:

• Cases: 2,234,471 (+26,071 | Δ Change: ↑2.44% | Σ Increase: ↑1.18%)
• Deaths: 119,941 (+809 | Δ Change: ↓4.71% | Σ Increase: ↑0.68%)

6/18:

• Cases: 2,263,651 (+29,180 | Δ Change: ↑11.93% | Σ Increase: ↑1.31%)
• Deaths: 120,688 (+747 | Δ Change: ↓7.66% | Σ Increase: ↑0.62%)

6/19:

• Cases: 2,297,190 (+33,539 | Δ Change: ↑14.94% | Σ Increase: ↑1.48%)
• Deaths: 121,407 (+719 | Δ Change: ↓3.75% | Σ Increase: ↑0.60%)

6/20:

• Cases: 2,330,578 (+33,388 | Δ Change: ↓0.45% | Σ Increase: ↑1.45%)
• Deaths: 121,980 (+573 | Δ Change: ↓20.31% | Σ Increase: ↑0.47%)

6/21: <Sunday>

• Cases: 2,356,657 (+26,079 | Δ Change: ↓21.89% | Σ Increase: ↑1.12%)
• Deaths: 122,247 (+267 | Δ Change: ↓53.40% | Σ Increase: ↑0.22%)

6/22:

• Cases: 2,388,153 (+31,496 | Δ Change: ↑20.77% | Σ Increase: ↑1.34%)
• Deaths: 122,610 (+363 | Δ Change: ↑35.96% | Σ Increase: ↑0.30%)

6/23:

• Cases: 2,424,168 (+36,015 | Δ Change: ↑14.35% | Σ Increase: ↑1.51%)
• Deaths: 123,473 (+863 | Δ Change: ↑137.74% | Σ Increase: ↑0.70%)
• Death toll inflated by older counts recently dumped by DE

6/24:

• Cases: 2,462,554 (+38,386 | Δ Change: ↑6.18% | Σ Increase: ↑1.58%)
• Deaths: 124,281 (+808 | Δ Change: ↓6.37% | Σ Increase: ↑0.65%)

6/25:

• Cases: 2,504,588 (+42,034 | Δ Change: ↑9.50% | Σ Increase: ↑1.71%)
• Deaths: 126,780 (+2,499 | Δ Change: ↑209.28% | Σ Increase: ↑2.01%)
• Death toll inflated by older counts recently dumped by NJ

6/26:

• Cases: 2,552,940 (+48,352 | Δ Change: ↑15.03% | Σ Increase: ↑1.93%)
• Deaths: 127,640 (+860 | Δ Change: ↓65.59% | Σ Increase: ↑0.68%)
• Death Δ Change affected by older counts recently dumped by NJ on 6/25

6/27:

• Cases: 2,596,537 (+43,597 | Δ Change: ↓9.83% | Σ Increase: ↑1.71%)
• Deaths: 128,152 (+512 | Δ Change: ↓40.47% | Σ Increase: ↑0.40%)

6/28: <Sunday>

• Cases: 2,637,077 (+40,540 | Δ Change: ↓7.01% | Σ Increase: ↑1.56%)
• Deaths: 128,437 (+285 | Δ Change: ↓44.34% | Σ Increase: ↑0.22%)

6/29:

• Cases: 2,681,802 (+44,725 | Δ Change: ↑10.32% | Σ Increase: ↑1.70%)
• Deaths: 128,779 (+342 | Δ Change: ↑20.00% | Σ Increase: ↑0.27%)

6/30:

• Cases: 2,727,853 (+46,051 | Δ Change: ↑2.96% | Σ Increase: ↑1.72%)
• Deaths: 130,122 (+1,343 | Δ Change: ↑292.69% | Σ Increase: ↑1.04%)

7/1:

• Cases: 2,779,953 (+52,100 | Δ Change: ↑13.14% | Σ Increase: ↑1.91%)
• Deaths: 130,798 (+676 | Δ Change: ↓49.66% | Σ Increase: ↑0.52%)

7/2:

• Cases: 2,837,189 (+57,236 | Δ Change: ↑9.86% | Σ Increase: ↑2.06%)
• Deaths: 131,485 (+687 | Δ Change: ↑1.62% | Σ Increase: ↑0.53%)

7/3:

• Cases: 2,890,588 (+53,399 | Δ Change: ↓6.70% | Σ Increase: ↑1.88%)
• Deaths: 132,101 (+616 | Δ Change: ↓10.33% | Σ Increase: ↑0.47%)

7/4:

• Cases: 2,935,770 (+45,182 | Δ Change: ↓15.39% | Σ Increase: ↑1.56%)
• Deaths: 132,318 (+212 | Δ Change: ↓65.58% | Σ Increase: ↑0.16%)

7/5 (Yesterday): <Sunday>

• Cases: 2,982,928 (+47,158 | Δ Change: ↑4.37% | Σ Increase: ↑1.61%)
• Deaths: 132,569 (+251 | Δ Change: ↑18.40% | Σ Increase: ↑0.19%)

7/6 (Today):

• Cases: 3,040,833 (+57,905 | Δ Change: ↑22.79% | Σ Increase: ↑1.94%)
• Deaths: 132,979 (+410 | Δ Change: ↑63.35% | Σ Increase: ↑0.31%)

[Calthrina950]

I almost missed this, but West Virginia is now joining the growing list of states mandating masks indoors: https://www.wboy.com/news/health/coronavirus/wv-gov-justice-schedules-covid-19-briefing-for-1230-may-address-mandatory-masks/. Justice is now the third Republican Governor in the past week to have issued a statewide mask order, following Lee in Tennessee (who allowed local jurisdictions to issue such orders) and Abbott in Texas. Moreover, Governor Wolf in Pennsylvania is now saying that masks will "probably" remain mandatory until there is a coronavirus vaccine-which won't come until the end of the year at the earliest.

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://twitter.com/StevenTDennis/status/1280326983348518914

https://twitter.com/StevenTDennis/status/1280330163373379586

[It’s so Joever]

https://twitter.com/StevenTDennis/status/1280326983348518914

https://twitter.com/StevenTDennis/status/1280330163373379586

It’s almost as if....deaths lag.