COVID-19 Megathread 5: The Trumps catch COVID-19

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 4/19 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

Δ Change: Day-by-day Growth or Decline or COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

<Last Numbers for 3/26-3/28 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 3/29-4/4 in this Post>

4/5: <Sunday>

• Cases: 336,327 (+24,970 | Δ Change: ↓27.40% | Σ Increase: ↑8.02%)
• Deaths: 9,605 (+1,153 | Δ Change: ↑8.67% | Σ Increase: ↑13.64%)

4/6:

• Cases: 366,112 (+29,785 | Δ Change: ↑19.28% | Σ Increase: ↑8.86%)
• Deaths: 10,859 (+1,254 | Δ Change: ↑8.76% | Σ Increase: ↑13.06%)

4/7:

• Cases: 399,937 (+33,825 | Δ Change: ↑13.56% | Σ Increase: ↑13.56%)
• Deaths: 12,813 (+1,954 | Δ Change: ↑55.82% | Σ Increase: ↑9.02%)

4/8:

• Cases: 434,698 (+34,761 | Δ Change: ↑2.77% | Σ Increase: ↑8.69%)
• Deaths: 14,787 (+1,974 | Δ Change: ↑1.02% | Σ Increase: ↑15.41%)

4/9:

• Cases: 468,566 (+33,868 | Δ Change: ↓2.57% | Σ Increase: ↑7.79%)
• Deaths: 16,691 (+1,904 | Δ Change: ↓3.55% | Σ Increase: ↑12.88%)

4/10:

• Cases: 502,318 (+33,752 | Δ Change: ↓0.34% | Σ Increase: ↑7.20%)
• Deaths: 18,725 (+2,034 | Δ Change: ↑6.83% | Σ Increase: ↑12.19%)

4/11:

• Cases: 532,879 (+30,561 | Δ Change: ↓9.45% | Σ Increase: ↑6.08%)
• Deaths: 20,577 (+1,852 | Δ Change: ↓8.95% | Σ Increase: ↑9.89%)

4/12: <Sunday>

• Cases: 560,323 (+27,444 | Δ Change: ↓10.20% | Σ Increase: ↑5.15%)
• Deaths: 22,108 (+1,531 | Δ Change: ↓17.33% | Σ Increase: ↑7.44%)

4/13:

• Cases: 586,941 (+26,618 | Δ Change: ↓3.01% | Σ Increase: ↑4.75%)
• Deaths: 23,640 (+1,532 | Δ Change: ↑0.07% | Σ Increase: ↑6.93%)

4/14:

• Cases: 613,886 (+26,945 | Δ Change: ↑1.23% | Σ Increase: ↑4.59%)
• Deaths: 26,047 (+2,407 | Δ Change: ↑57.11% | Σ Increase: ↑10.18%)

4/15:

• Cases: 644,089 (+30,203 | Δ Change: ↑12.09% | Σ Increase: ↑4.92%)
• Deaths: 28,529 (+2,482 | Δ Change: ↑3.12% | Σ Increase: ↑9.53%)

4/16: <Missing Older Cases & Deaths Added / Δ Change Calculations Misleading>

• Cases: 677,570 (+33,481 | Σ Increase: ↑5.20%)
• Deaths: 34,617 (+6,088 | Σ Increase: ↑21.34%)

4/17: <Δ Change Calculations Based on 4/15>

• Cases: 709,735 (+32,165 | Δ Change: ↑6.50% | Σ Increase: ↑4.09%)
• Deaths: 37,154 (+2,537 | Δ Change: ↑2.22% | Σ Increase: ↑7.33%)

4/18 (Yesterday):

• Cases: 738,830 (+29,095 | Δ Change: ↓9.54% | Σ Increase: ↑4.75%)
• Deaths: 39,014 (+1,860 | Δ Change: ↓26.69% | Σ Increase: ↑5.01%)

4/19 (Today): <Sunday>

• Cases: 764,303 (+25,473 | Δ Change: ↓12.45% | Σ Increase: ↑3.45%)
• Deaths: 40,548 (+1,534 | Δ Change: ↓17.53% | Σ Increase: ↑3.93%)

[Dr. Arch]

How are today's numbers looking?

Too early to know. Check again in about 5 hours.

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 4/20 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

Δ Change: Day-by-day Growth or Decline or COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

<Last Numbers for 3/26-3/28 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 3/29-4/4 in this Post>

4/5: <Sunday>

• Cases: 336,327 (+24,970 | Δ Change: ↓27.40% | Σ Increase: ↑8.02%)
• Deaths: 9,605 (+1,153 | Δ Change: ↑8.67% | Σ Increase: ↑13.64%)

4/6:

• Cases: 366,112 (+29,785 | Δ Change: ↑19.28% | Σ Increase: ↑8.86%)
• Deaths: 10,859 (+1,254 | Δ Change: ↑8.76% | Σ Increase: ↑13.06%)

4/7:

• Cases: 399,937 (+33,825 | Δ Change: ↑13.56% | Σ Increase: ↑13.56%)
• Deaths: 12,813 (+1,954 | Δ Change: ↑55.82% | Σ Increase: ↑9.02%)

4/8:

• Cases: 434,698 (+34,761 | Δ Change: ↑2.77% | Σ Increase: ↑8.69%)
• Deaths: 14,787 (+1,974 | Δ Change: ↑1.02% | Σ Increase: ↑15.41%)

4/9:

• Cases: 468,566 (+33,868 | Δ Change: ↓2.57% | Σ Increase: ↑7.79%)
• Deaths: 16,691 (+1,904 | Δ Change: ↓3.55% | Σ Increase: ↑12.88%)

4/10:

• Cases: 502,318 (+33,752 | Δ Change: ↓0.34% | Σ Increase: ↑7.20%)
• Deaths: 18,725 (+2,034 | Δ Change: ↑6.83% | Σ Increase: ↑12.19%)

4/11:

• Cases: 532,879 (+30,561 | Δ Change: ↓9.45% | Σ Increase: ↑6.08%)
• Deaths: 20,577 (+1,852 | Δ Change: ↓8.95% | Σ Increase: ↑9.89%)

4/12: <Sunday>

• Cases: 560,323 (+27,444 | Δ Change: ↓10.20% | Σ Increase: ↑5.15%)
• Deaths: 22,108 (+1,531 | Δ Change: ↓17.33% | Σ Increase: ↑7.44%)

4/13:

• Cases: 586,941 (+26,618 | Δ Change: ↓3.01% | Σ Increase: ↑4.75%)
• Deaths: 23,640 (+1,532 | Δ Change: ↑0.07% | Σ Increase: ↑6.93%)

4/14:

• Cases: 613,886 (+26,945 | Δ Change: ↑1.23% | Σ Increase: ↑4.59%)
• Deaths: 26,047 (+2,407 | Δ Change: ↑57.11% | Σ Increase: ↑10.18%)

4/15:

• Cases: 644,089 (+30,203 | Δ Change: ↑12.09% | Σ Increase: ↑4.92%)
• Deaths: 28,529 (+2,482 | Δ Change: ↑3.12% | Σ Increase: ↑9.53%)

4/16: <Missing Older Cases & Deaths Added / Δ Change Calculations Misleading>

• Cases: 677,570 (+33,481 | Σ Increase: ↑5.20%)
• Deaths: 34,617 (+6,088 | Σ Increase: ↑21.34%)

4/17: <Δ Change Calculations Based on 4/15>

• Cases: 709,735 (+32,165 | Δ Change: ↑6.50% | Σ Increase: ↑4.09%)
• Deaths: 37,154 (+2,537 | Δ Change: ↑2.22% | Σ Increase: ↑7.33%)

4/18:

• Cases: 738,830 (+29,095 | Δ Change: ↓9.54% | Σ Increase: ↑4.75%)
• Deaths: 39,014 (+1,860 | Δ Change: ↓26.69% | Σ Increase: ↑5.01%)

4/19 (Yesterday): <Sunday>

• Cases: 764,303 (+25,473 | Δ Change: ↓12.45% | Σ Increase: ↑3.45%)
• Deaths: 40,548 (+1,534 | Δ Change: ↓17.53% | Σ Increase: ↑3.93%)

4/20 (Today):

• Cases: 792,759 (+28,456 | Δ Change: ↑11.71% | Σ Increase: ↑3.72%)
• Deaths: 42,514 (+1,966 | Δ Change: ↑28.16% | Σ Increase: ↑4.85%)

[Dr. Arch]

With the rate that states are going, this is going to be a continued outright pandemic for months ahead with more cases and more deaths. It's shameful.

As a person who checks the case numbers for almost every state every single day, we could see an end to this by mid may in most states.

But the alarmists won't tell you that.

At the current pace with current prevention methods in place, perhaps. Opening up everything when things are starting to improve, like in FL and TX? Absolutely not.

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 4/21 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

Δ Change: Day-by-day Growth or Decline or COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

<Last Numbers for 3/26-3/28 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 3/29-4/4 in this Post>

4/5: <Sunday>

• Cases: 336,327 (+24,970 | Δ Change: ↓27.40% | Σ Increase: ↑8.02%)
• Deaths: 9,605 (+1,153 | Δ Change: ↑8.67% | Σ Increase: ↑13.64%)

4/6:

• Cases: 366,112 (+29,785 | Δ Change: ↑19.28% | Σ Increase: ↑8.86%)
• Deaths: 10,859 (+1,254 | Δ Change: ↑8.76% | Σ Increase: ↑13.06%)

4/7:

• Cases: 399,937 (+33,825 | Δ Change: ↑13.56% | Σ Increase: ↑13.56%)
• Deaths: 12,813 (+1,954 | Δ Change: ↑55.82% | Σ Increase: ↑9.02%)

4/8:

• Cases: 434,698 (+34,761 | Δ Change: ↑2.77% | Σ Increase: ↑8.69%)
• Deaths: 14,787 (+1,974 | Δ Change: ↑1.02% | Σ Increase: ↑15.41%)

4/9:

• Cases: 468,566 (+33,868 | Δ Change: ↓2.57% | Σ Increase: ↑7.79%)
• Deaths: 16,691 (+1,904 | Δ Change: ↓3.55% | Σ Increase: ↑12.88%)

4/10:

• Cases: 502,318 (+33,752 | Δ Change: ↓0.34% | Σ Increase: ↑7.20%)
• Deaths: 18,725 (+2,034 | Δ Change: ↑6.83% | Σ Increase: ↑12.19%)

4/11:

• Cases: 532,879 (+30,561 | Δ Change: ↓9.45% | Σ Increase: ↑6.08%)
• Deaths: 20,577 (+1,852 | Δ Change: ↓8.95% | Σ Increase: ↑9.89%)

4/12: <Sunday>

• Cases: 560,323 (+27,444 | Δ Change: ↓10.20% | Σ Increase: ↑5.15%)
• Deaths: 22,108 (+1,531 | Δ Change: ↓17.33% | Σ Increase: ↑7.44%)

4/13:

• Cases: 586,941 (+26,618 | Δ Change: ↓3.01% | Σ Increase: ↑4.75%)
• Deaths: 23,640 (+1,532 | Δ Change: ↑0.07% | Σ Increase: ↑6.93%)

4/14:

• Cases: 613,886 (+26,945 | Δ Change: ↑1.23% | Σ Increase: ↑4.59%)
• Deaths: 26,047 (+2,407 | Δ Change: ↑57.11% | Σ Increase: ↑10.18%)

4/15:

• Cases: 644,089 (+30,203 | Δ Change: ↑12.09% | Σ Increase: ↑4.92%)
• Deaths: 28,529 (+2,482 | Δ Change: ↑3.12% | Σ Increase: ↑9.53%)

4/16: <Missing Older Cases & Deaths Added / Δ Change Calculations Misleading>

• Cases: 677,570 (+33,481 | Σ Increase: ↑5.20%)
• Deaths: 34,617 (+6,088 | Σ Increase: ↑21.34%)

4/17: <Δ Change Calculations Based on 4/15>

• Cases: 709,735 (+32,165 | Δ Change: ↑6.50% | Σ Increase: ↑4.09%)
• Deaths: 37,154 (+2,537 | Δ Change: ↑2.22% | Σ Increase: ↑7.33%)

4/18:

• Cases: 738,830 (+29,095 | Δ Change: ↓9.54% | Σ Increase: ↑4.75%)
• Deaths: 39,014 (+1,860 | Δ Change: ↓26.69% | Σ Increase: ↑5.01%)

4/19: <Sunday>

• Cases: 764,303 (+25,473 | Δ Change: ↓12.45% | Σ Increase: ↑3.45%)
• Deaths: 40,548 (+1,534 | Δ Change: ↓17.53% | Σ Increase: ↑3.93%)

4/20 (Yesterday):

• Cases: 792,759 (+28,456 | Δ Change: ↑11.71% | Σ Increase: ↑3.28%)
• Deaths: 42,514 (+1,966 | Δ Change: ↑28.16% | Σ Increase: ↑4.85%)

4/21 (Today):

• Cases: 818,744 (+25,985 | Δ Change: ↓8.68% | Σ Increase: ↑3.72%)
• Deaths: 45,318 (+2,804 | Δ Change: ↑42.62% | Σ Increase: ↑6.60%)

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 4/22 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

Δ Change: Day-by-day Growth or Decline or COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

<Last Numbers for 3/26-3/28 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 3/29-4/4 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/5-4/11 in this Post>

4/12: <Sunday>

• Cases: 560,323 (+27,444 | Δ Change: ↓10.20% | Σ Increase: ↑5.15%)
• Deaths: 22,108 (+1,531 | Δ Change: ↓17.33% | Σ Increase: ↑7.44%)

4/13:

• Cases: 586,941 (+26,618 | Δ Change: ↓3.01% | Σ Increase: ↑4.75%)
• Deaths: 23,640 (+1,532 | Δ Change: ↑0.07% | Σ Increase: ↑6.93%)

4/14:

• Cases: 613,886 (+26,945 | Δ Change: ↑1.23% | Σ Increase: ↑4.59%)
• Deaths: 26,047 (+2,407 | Δ Change: ↑57.11% | Σ Increase: ↑10.18%)

4/15:

• Cases: 644,089 (+30,203 | Δ Change: ↑12.09% | Σ Increase: ↑4.92%)
• Deaths: 28,529 (+2,482 | Δ Change: ↑3.12% | Σ Increase: ↑9.53%)

4/16: <Missing Older Cases & Deaths Added / Δ Change Calculations Misleading>

• Cases: 677,570 (+33,481 | Σ Increase: ↑5.20%)
• Deaths: 34,617 (+6,088 | Σ Increase: ↑21.34%)

4/17: <Δ Change Calculations Based on 4/15>

• Cases: 709,735 (+32,165 | Δ Change: ↑6.50% | Σ Increase: ↑4.09%)
• Deaths: 37,154 (+2,537 | Δ Change: ↑2.22% | Σ Increase: ↑7.33%)

4/18:

• Cases: 738,830 (+29,095 | Δ Change: ↓9.54% | Σ Increase: ↑4.75%)
• Deaths: 39,014 (+1,860 | Δ Change: ↓26.69% | Σ Increase: ↑5.01%)

4/19: <Sunday>

• Cases: 764,303 (+25,473 | Δ Change: ↓12.45% | Σ Increase: ↑3.45%)
• Deaths: 40,548 (+1,534 | Δ Change: ↓17.53% | Σ Increase: ↑3.93%)

4/20:

• Cases: 792,759 (+28,456 | Δ Change: ↑11.71% | Σ Increase: ↑3.28%)
• Deaths: 42,514 (+1,966 | Δ Change: ↑28.16% | Σ Increase: ↑4.85%)

4/21 (Yesterday):

• Cases: 818,744 (+25,985 | Δ Change: ↓8.68% | Σ Increase: ↑3.72%)
• Deaths: 45,318 (+2,804 | Δ Change: ↑42.62% | Σ Increase: ↑6.60%)

4/22 (Today):

• Cases: 848,555 (+29,811 | Δ Change: ↑14.72% | Σ Increase: ↑3.64%)
• Deaths: 47,654 (+2,336 | Δ Change: ↓16.69% | Σ Increase: ↑5.15%)

[Dr. Arch]

How are today's numbers looking?

Again, too early. I post numbers at around 8:00 PM CST.

[Dr. Arch]

So what are the chances schools don't meet in the fall?

Many universities seem to be leaning towards cancelling in-person classes.

Yep

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 4/23 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

Δ Change: Day-by-day Growth or Decline or COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

<Last Numbers for 3/26-3/28 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 3/29-4/4 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/5-4/11 in this Post>

4/12: <Sunday>

• Cases: 560,323 (+27,444 | Δ Change: ↓10.20% | Σ Increase: ↑5.15%)
• Deaths: 22,108 (+1,531 | Δ Change: ↓17.33% | Σ Increase: ↑7.44%)

4/13:

• Cases: 586,941 (+26,618 | Δ Change: ↓3.01% | Σ Increase: ↑4.75%)
• Deaths: 23,640 (+1,532 | Δ Change: ↑0.07% | Σ Increase: ↑6.93%)

4/14:

• Cases: 613,886 (+26,945 | Δ Change: ↑1.23% | Σ Increase: ↑4.59%)
• Deaths: 26,047 (+2,407 | Δ Change: ↑57.11% | Σ Increase: ↑10.18%)

4/15:

• Cases: 644,089 (+30,203 | Δ Change: ↑12.09% | Σ Increase: ↑4.92%)
• Deaths: 28,529 (+2,482 | Δ Change: ↑3.12% | Σ Increase: ↑9.53%)

4/16: <Missing Older Cases & Deaths Added / Δ Change Calculations Misleading>

• Cases: 677,570 (+33,481 | Σ Increase: ↑5.20%)
• Deaths: 34,617 (+6,088 | Σ Increase: ↑21.34%)

4/17: <Δ Change Calculations Based on 4/15>

• Cases: 709,735 (+32,165 | Δ Change: ↑6.50% | Σ Increase: ↑4.09%)
• Deaths: 37,154 (+2,537 | Δ Change: ↑2.22% | Σ Increase: ↑7.33%)

4/18:

• Cases: 738,830 (+29,095 | Δ Change: ↓9.54% | Σ Increase: ↑4.75%)
• Deaths: 39,014 (+1,860 | Δ Change: ↓26.69% | Σ Increase: ↑5.01%)

4/19: <Sunday>

• Cases: 764,303 (+25,473 | Δ Change: ↓12.45% | Σ Increase: ↑3.45%)
• Deaths: 40,548 (+1,534 | Δ Change: ↓17.53% | Σ Increase: ↑3.93%)

4/20:

• Cases: 792,759 (+28,456 | Δ Change: ↑11.71% | Σ Increase: ↑3.28%)
• Deaths: 42,514 (+1,966 | Δ Change: ↑28.16% | Σ Increase: ↑4.85%)

4/21:

• Cases: 818,744 (+25,985 | Δ Change: ↓8.68% | Σ Increase: ↑3.72%)
• Deaths: 45,318 (+2,804 | Δ Change: ↑42.62% | Σ Increase: ↑6.60%)

4/22 (Yesterday):

• Cases: 848,555 (+29,811 | Δ Change: ↑14.72% | Σ Increase: ↑3.64%)
• Deaths: 47,654 (+2,336 | Δ Change: ↓16.69% | Σ Increase: ↑5.15%)

4/23 (Today):

• Cases: 880,204 (+31,649 | Δ Change: ↑6.17% | Σ Increase: ↑3.73%)
• Deaths: 49,845 (+2,191 | Δ Change: ↓6.21% | Σ Increase: ↑4.60%)

[Dr. Arch]

I'm ashamed to be American when the Dear Leader says we need to be irradiated and injected with bleach and says it with such a serious tone...

  I'm at a loss for words. I share your pain, my friend.

[Dr. Arch]

This is such an embarrassment. What the hell is this crap?

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1253455713034211328

To anyone who still supports this guy, this is your wake-up call. Look at this. We deserve better than this.

[Dr. Arch]

This is such an embarrassment. What the hell is this crap?

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1253455713034211328

For anyone who still supports this guy, this is your wake-up call. Look at this. We deserve better than this.

Donald Trump actually predicted that the left-wing media will report him as misconstruing his enthusiasm for the results about UV sunlight and alcohols' effect on the Corona-virus.

It was not that bad if anyone watched the briefing. Donald was asking Dr Birx great questions about how best to use these new results.

The media was very excited about the results and asked a great question about sunlight.

"If sunlight is so great, then should we ask people to go outside more to avoid infection?"

We are not getting any interesting scientific discussion of these new results here. We are getting the "Tweet - I Hate Trump" brigade hijacking the thread daily with their political bent and missing some of the really interesting outcomes that were discussed today.

The effect of summer heat and humidity is worth discussing.

I'll let him speak for himself. Look at this ridiculousness. I don't need any media to tell me anything. Look at it. Read it. REALLY read it.

"I see the disenfectant knocks it out in a minute. One minute. And is there a way we could do something like that? By... injection inside or... almost a cleaning, cause you see it gets in the lungs and it does a tremendous number and so I'd be interested to check that"

This is from a press briefing on a national health crisis from the POTUS. Are you kidding me? Look at this guy.

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 4/24 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

Δ Change: Day-by-day Growth or Decline or COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

<Last Numbers for 3/26-3/28 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 3/29-4/4 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/5-4/11 in this Post>

4/12: <Sunday>

• Cases: 560,323 (+27,444 | Δ Change: ↓10.20% | Σ Increase: ↑5.15%)
• Deaths: 22,108 (+1,531 | Δ Change: ↓17.33% | Σ Increase: ↑7.44%)

4/13:

• Cases: 586,941 (+26,618 | Δ Change: ↓3.01% | Σ Increase: ↑4.75%)
• Deaths: 23,640 (+1,532 | Δ Change: ↑0.07% | Σ Increase: ↑6.93%)

4/14:

• Cases: 613,886 (+26,945 | Δ Change: ↑1.23% | Σ Increase: ↑4.59%)
• Deaths: 26,047 (+2,407 | Δ Change: ↑57.11% | Σ Increase: ↑10.18%)

4/15:

• Cases: 644,089 (+30,203 | Δ Change: ↑12.09% | Σ Increase: ↑4.92%)
• Deaths: 28,529 (+2,482 | Δ Change: ↑3.12% | Σ Increase: ↑9.53%)

4/16: <Missing Older Cases & Deaths Added / Δ Change Calculations Misleading>

• Cases: 677,570 (+33,481 | Σ Increase: ↑5.20%)
• Deaths: 34,617 (+6,088 | Σ Increase: ↑21.34%)

4/17: <Δ Change Calculations Based on 4/15>

• Cases: 709,735 (+32,165 | Δ Change: ↑6.50% | Σ Increase: ↑4.09%)
• Deaths: 37,154 (+2,537 | Δ Change: ↑2.22% | Σ Increase: ↑7.33%)

4/18:

• Cases: 738,830 (+29,095 | Δ Change: ↓9.54% | Σ Increase: ↑4.75%)
• Deaths: 39,014 (+1,860 | Δ Change: ↓26.69% | Σ Increase: ↑5.01%)

4/19: <Sunday>

• Cases: 764,303 (+25,473 | Δ Change: ↓12.45% | Σ Increase: ↑3.45%)
• Deaths: 40,548 (+1,534 | Δ Change: ↓17.53% | Σ Increase: ↑3.93%)

4/20:

• Cases: 792,759 (+28,456 | Δ Change: ↑11.71% | Σ Increase: ↑3.28%)
• Deaths: 42,514 (+1,966 | Δ Change: ↑28.16% | Σ Increase: ↑4.85%)

4/21:

• Cases: 818,744 (+25,985 | Δ Change: ↓8.68% | Σ Increase: ↑3.72%)
• Deaths: 45,318 (+2,804 | Δ Change: ↑42.62% | Σ Increase: ↑6.60%)

4/22:

• Cases: 848,555 (+29,811 | Δ Change: ↑14.72% | Σ Increase: ↑3.64%)
• Deaths: 47,654 (+2,336 | Δ Change: ↓16.69% | Σ Increase: ↑5.15%)

4/23 (Yesterday):

• Cases: 880,204 (+31,649 | Δ Change: ↑6.17% | Σ Increase: ↑3.73%)
• Deaths: 49,845 (+2,191 | Δ Change: ↓6.21% | Σ Increase: ↑4.60%)

4/24 (Today):

• Cases: 925,038 (+44,834 | Δ Change: ↑41.70% | Σ Increase: ↑5.09%)
• Deaths: 52,185 (+2,340 | Δ Change: ↑6.80% | Σ Increase: ↑4.69%)

[Dr. Arch]

Ugh...

[Dr. Arch]

At this rate, we'll hit 1,000,000 cases by Monday.

[Dr. Arch]

At this rate, we'll hit 1,000,000 cases by Monday.

There are already over a million cases of coronavirus in the United States, and probably several million at this point, as the serology studies have indicated. However, why was there such a significant increase in the number of cases today? Coronavirus is on the verge of overtaking the Vietnam War in terms of the number of officially recorded casualties, and I don't think the White House's estimate of 60,000 is going to hold up.

Yes. I update the post from the same source every day at around the same hour. That's the net increase from yesterday at 8:00PM CST.

And, just from active cases alone and assuming not a single additional case takes place after today, we're looking at around 100,000 deaths already. In reality, we can be looking at least a couple hundred thousand.

If states start opening up again in the midst of this (I'm looking at you, GA, FL, and TX), we can start thinking of parts of a million. This is really serious.

[Dr. Arch]

At this rate, we'll hit 1,000,000 cases by Monday.

There are already over a million cases of coronavirus in the United States, and probably several million at this point, as the serology studies have indicated. However, why was there such a significant increase in the number of cases today? Coronavirus is on the verge of overtaking the Vietnam War in terms of the number of officially recorded casualties, and I don't think the White House's estimate of 60,000 is going to hold up.

Mike Pence today said that the USA is about to see increased numbers due to increased testing:

"As testing increases dramatically across the country, cases will accelerate as well."

Sure, but that's an artificial inflation of positive recorded case numbers. The deaths would still be happening regardless.

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 4/25 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

Δ Change: Day-by-day Growth or Decline or COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

<Last Numbers for 3/26-3/28 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 3/29-4/4 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/5-4/11 in this Post>

4/12: <Sunday>

• Cases: 560,323 (+27,444 | Δ Change: ↓10.20% | Σ Increase: ↑5.15%)
• Deaths: 22,108 (+1,531 | Δ Change: ↓17.33% | Σ Increase: ↑7.44%)

4/13:

• Cases: 586,941 (+26,618 | Δ Change: ↓3.01% | Σ Increase: ↑4.75%)
• Deaths: 23,640 (+1,532 | Δ Change: ↑0.07% | Σ Increase: ↑6.93%)

4/14:

• Cases: 613,886 (+26,945 | Δ Change: ↑1.23% | Σ Increase: ↑4.59%)
• Deaths: 26,047 (+2,407 | Δ Change: ↑57.11% | Σ Increase: ↑10.18%)

4/15:

• Cases: 644,089 (+30,203 | Δ Change: ↑12.09% | Σ Increase: ↑4.92%)
• Deaths: 28,529 (+2,482 | Δ Change: ↑3.12% | Σ Increase: ↑9.53%)

4/16: <Missing Older Cases & Deaths Added / Δ Change Calculations Misleading>

• Cases: 677,570 (+33,481 | Σ Increase: ↑5.20%)
• Deaths: 34,617 (+6,088 | Σ Increase: ↑21.34%)

4/17: <Δ Change Calculations Based on 4/15>

• Cases: 709,735 (+32,165 | Δ Change: ↑6.50% | Σ Increase: ↑4.09%)
• Deaths: 37,154 (+2,537 | Δ Change: ↑2.22% | Σ Increase: ↑7.33%)

4/18:

• Cases: 738,830 (+29,095 | Δ Change: ↓9.54% | Σ Increase: ↑4.75%)
• Deaths: 39,014 (+1,860 | Δ Change: ↓26.69% | Σ Increase: ↑5.01%)

4/19: <Sunday>

• Cases: 764,303 (+25,473 | Δ Change: ↓12.45% | Σ Increase: ↑3.45%)
• Deaths: 40,548 (+1,534 | Δ Change: ↓17.53% | Σ Increase: ↑3.93%)

4/20:

• Cases: 792,759 (+28,456 | Δ Change: ↑11.71% | Σ Increase: ↑3.28%)
• Deaths: 42,514 (+1,966 | Δ Change: ↑28.16% | Σ Increase: ↑4.85%)

4/21:

• Cases: 818,744 (+25,985 | Δ Change: ↓8.68% | Σ Increase: ↑3.72%)
• Deaths: 45,318 (+2,804 | Δ Change: ↑42.62% | Σ Increase: ↑6.60%)

4/22:

• Cases: 848,555 (+29,811 | Δ Change: ↑14.72% | Σ Increase: ↑3.64%)
• Deaths: 47,654 (+2,336 | Δ Change: ↓16.69% | Σ Increase: ↑5.15%)

4/23:

• Cases: 880,204 (+31,649 | Δ Change: ↑6.17% | Σ Increase: ↑3.73%)
• Deaths: 49,845 (+2,191 | Δ Change: ↓6.21% | Σ Increase: ↑4.60%)

4/24 (Yesterday):

• Cases: 925,038 (+44,834 | Δ Change: ↑41.70% | Σ Increase: ↑5.09%)
• Deaths: 52,185 (+2,340 | Δ Change: ↑6.80% | Σ Increase: ↑4.69%)

4/25 (Today):

• Cases: 960,651 (+35,613 | Δ Change: ↓20.57% | Σ Increase: ↑3.85%)
• Deaths: 54,256 (+2,071 | Δ Change: ↓11.50% | Σ Increase: ↑3.97%)

[Dr. Arch]

Can we just ponder how amazingly wrong the 60k projection was. At current rate, 60k gets crossed within the next three days with no end in sight.

Yes, all of the “flatten the curve” models that were used to justify our strategy have proven incredible wrong in their most basic assumptions.  Plenty of people were was willing to acknowledge how little we know about the virus.  But no one was willing to acknowledge that this might mean we would need a “Plan B” if the lockdowns didn’t work.

And what do you think "Plan B" would look like?

In broad terms, in areas where the healthcare system is not at risk of breaking down, implement very strict quarantines for vulnerable members of the populations while encouraging the rest of the population to be deliberately infected with an attenuated strain of the virus (though probably not all at once).  People should be quarantined after infection for a few weeks, but issued an immunity certificate after recovery that frees them of all restrictions.  You can lift the quarantines on the vulnerable population once herd immunity to achieved.

This is basically what is going to happen anyway in heavily affected countries, it’s just going to take a lot longer and result in more deaths if the general lockdowns continue.

What is your Plan B if the lockdowns fail?

Well, I certainly don't think the lockdowns can last longer beyond June, and we need to have a framework for reopening the economy. I would support something similar to the "Safer At Home" approach which Polis has proposed in my state, with a focus on maintaining social distancing, promoting sanitary practices, regulating store capacity/safety, and encouraging (but not mandating) the use of masks and the like. We need to continue expanding our testing apparatus, and I would support the idea of quarantining and contact tracing those who are ill with the virus, particularly those in nursing homes and among the most vulnerable populations. I will readily acknowledge that we haven't had the most effective response to this pandemic, not by any means, and the incompetence of our President is a factor in that. Hence, we should be willing to embrace new solutions if need be.

I guess my reaction to that is if the lockdowns haven’t caused infection and death rates to fall significantly by June, why would lifting some of those restrictions work any better?

Because it's not solely about making the rates go down "significantly." Nobody was expecting that; just look at all of the people who don't care and are congregating en masse despite these measures being in place. It's about controlling it so that it doesn't continue to scale exponentially, which we have.

Now that that's worked, people like you are questioning its effectiveness on a complete misunderstanding of what it's supposed to do and what it has done.

Is this manageable ad infinitum? Absolutely not, and especially not with this government that refuses to support its people, unlike other countries like Canada. Nevertheless, the repercussions of prematurely declaring it done and resuming as normal will come.

[Dr. Arch]

Can we just ponder how amazingly wrong the 60k projection was. At current rate, 60k gets crossed within the next three days with no end in sight.

Yes, all of the “flatten the curve” models that were used to justify our strategy have proven incredible wrong in their most basic assumptions.  Plenty of people were was willing to acknowledge how little we know about the virus.  But no one was willing to acknowledge that this might mean we would need a “Plan B” if the lockdowns didn’t work.

And what do you think "Plan B" would look like?

In broad terms, in areas where the healthcare system is not at risk of breaking down, implement very strict quarantines for vulnerable members of the populations while encouraging the rest of the population to be deliberately infected with an attenuated strain of the virus (though probably not all at once).  People should be quarantined after infection for a few weeks, but issued an immunity certificate after recovery that frees them of all restrictions.  You can lift the quarantines on the vulnerable population once herd immunity to achieved.

This is basically what is going to happen anyway in heavily affected countries, it’s just going to take a lot longer and result in more deaths if the general lockdowns continue.

What is your Plan B if the lockdowns fail?

Well, I certainly don't think the lockdowns can last longer beyond June, and we need to have a framework for reopening the economy. I would support something similar to the "Safer At Home" approach which Polis has proposed in my state, with a focus on maintaining social distancing, promoting sanitary practices, regulating store capacity/safety, and encouraging (but not mandating) the use of masks and the like. We need to continue expanding our testing apparatus, and I would support the idea of quarantining and contact tracing those who are ill with the virus, particularly those in nursing homes and among the most vulnerable populations. I will readily acknowledge that we haven't had the most effective response to this pandemic, not by any means, and the incompetence of our President is a factor in that. Hence, we should be willing to embrace new solutions if need be.

I guess my reaction to that is if the lockdowns haven’t caused infection and death rates to fall significantly by June, why would lifting some of those restrictions work any better?

Because it's not solely about making the rates go down to zero. Nobody was expecting that; just look at all of the people who don't care and are congregating en masse despite these measures being in place. It's about controlling it so that it doesn't continue to scale exponentially, which we have.

Now that that's worked, people like you are questioning its effectiveness on a complete misunderstanding of what it's supposed to do and what it has done.

Is this manageable ad infinitum? Absolutely not, and especially not with this government that refuses to support its people, unlike other countries like Canada. Nevertheless, the repercussions of prematurely declaring it done and resuming as normal will come.

So you’re saying the goal is the the rate of new infections and deaths where they are?  Until when?  What happens in June when we still have 2,000 people dying every day?

The goal is to keep these unfortunate mortalities as low as possible for as long as possible to give time to develop a vaccine so that we can finally defeat this thing, once and for all.

If by June, we would have kept it to 2,000 people dying every day (given how infectious and malicious it is in spreading), then that's unfortunately the best we could do.

The big difference here is this administration did not make use of the ample time it had to prepare. We could have stopped the leak while the water level was an inch off the floor. Instead, we ended up with a flooded basement and a sealed door that's leaking into the main floor, but at least it has been stopped there.

[Dr. Arch]

Can we just ponder how amazingly wrong the 60k projection was. At current rate, 60k gets crossed within the next three days with no end in sight.

Yes, all of the “flatten the curve” models that were used to justify our strategy have proven incredible wrong in their most basic assumptions.  Plenty of people were was willing to acknowledge how little we know about the virus.  But no one was willing to acknowledge that this might mean we would need a “Plan B” if the lockdowns didn’t work.

And what do you think "Plan B" would look like?

In broad terms, in areas where the healthcare system is not at risk of breaking down, implement very strict quarantines for vulnerable members of the populations while encouraging the rest of the population to be deliberately infected with an attenuated strain of the virus (though probably not all at once).  People should be quarantined after infection for a few weeks, but issued an immunity certificate after recovery that frees them of all restrictions.  You can lift the quarantines on the vulnerable population once herd immunity to achieved.

This is basically what is going to happen anyway in heavily affected countries, it’s just going to take a lot longer and result in more deaths if the general lockdowns continue.

What is your Plan B if the lockdowns fail?

Well, I certainly don't think the lockdowns can last longer beyond June, and we need to have a framework for reopening the economy. I would support something similar to the "Safer At Home" approach which Polis has proposed in my state, with a focus on maintaining social distancing, promoting sanitary practices, regulating store capacity/safety, and encouraging (but not mandating) the use of masks and the like. We need to continue expanding our testing apparatus, and I would support the idea of quarantining and contact tracing those who are ill with the virus, particularly those in nursing homes and among the most vulnerable populations. I will readily acknowledge that we haven't had the most effective response to this pandemic, not by any means, and the incompetence of our President is a factor in that. Hence, we should be willing to embrace new solutions if need be.

I guess my reaction to that is if the lockdowns haven’t caused infection and death rates to fall significantly by June, why would lifting some of those restrictions work any better?

Because it's not solely about making the rates go down to zero. Nobody was expecting that; just look at all of the people who don't care and are congregating en masse despite these measures being in place. It's about controlling it so that it doesn't continue to scale exponentially, which we have.

Now that that's worked, people like you are questioning its effectiveness on a complete misunderstanding of what it's supposed to do and what it has done.

Is this manageable ad infinitum? Absolutely not, and especially not with this government that refuses to support its people, unlike other countries like Canada. Nevertheless, the repercussions of prematurely declaring it done and resuming as normal will come.

So you’re saying the goal is the the rate of new infections and deaths where they are?  Until when?  What happens in June when we still have 2,000 people dying every day?

The goal is to keep these unfortunate mortalities as low as possible for as long as possible to give time to develop a vaccine so that we can finally defeat this thing, once and for all.

If by June, we have kept it to 2,000 people dying every day (given how infectious and malicious it is in spreading), then that's unfortunately the best we could do.

The big difference here is this administration did not make use of the ample time it had to prepare. We could have stopped the leak while the water level was an inch off the floor. Instead, we ended up with a flooded basement and a sealed door that's leaking into the main floor, but at least it has been stopped there.

The administration’s response has been unfathomably incompetent.  I said on this board that Democrats should have made Trump’s resignation a prerequisite to supporting any stimulus package.  Doing this might have saved hundreds of thousands of lives.  But no one on either side has been willing to do what is necessary to get rid of him, so I’m not sure how complaining about Trump’s response now helps us going forward.

Going forward, 2,000 deaths per day is NOT the best we could do.  We can’t just live under quarantine with 2,000 deaths per day for the next year or more waiting for a vaccine.  This is ~1 million deaths.

We can do better if we differentiate between people who are highly vulnerable (because they are old or immunocompromised) and people who are not vulnerable at all (because they have already been infected and recovered).  It would open up the country faster (although certainly not immediately) and result in far fewer fatalities over time.

In what world does increased contact lead to fewer fatalities? And what about those of us who could easily survive it, but who also live with someone who might very well not?

And what about potential long term effects for those who do survive it, like permanent lung damage, which has already been documented?

[Dr. Arch]

The administration’s response has been unfathomably incompetent.  I said on this board that Democrats should have made Trump’s resignation a prerequisite to supporting any stimulus package.  Doing this might have saved hundreds of thousands of lives.  But no one on either side has been willing to do what is necessary to get rid of him, so I’m not sure how complaining about Trump’s response now helps us going forward.

Going forward, 2,000 deaths per day is NOT the best we could do.  We can’t just live under quarantine with 2,000 deaths per day for the next year or more waiting for a vaccine.  This is ~1 million deaths.

We can do better if we differentiate between people who are highly vulnerable (because they are old or immunocompromised) and people who are not vulnerable at all (because they have already been infected and recovered).  It would open up the country faster (although certainly not immediately) and result in far fewer fatalities over time.

In what world does increased contact lead to fewer fatalities? And what about those of us who could easily survive it, but who also live with someone who might very well not?

And what about potential long term effects for those who do survive it, like permanent lung damage, which has already been documented?

It would lead to fewer fatalities by more effectively engineering who[/i[ gets infected.

Right now, the lockdowns aren’t working, and so we are slowly headed toward herd immunity any, just very slowly and very bluntly.  Everyone had basically the same chance of getting infected, whether they are old and vulnerable or now.

This is crazy.  People with various risk conditions probably have 1000x the chance of dying from the virus as a young and healthy person. 

If 75% of the population is inevitably going to get infected, it would be much better to efficiently determine who that 75% will be and then strictly quarantine the remaining 25% until herd immunity is reach than to slowly let chance determine who will protected through blanket lockdowns.

With respect to the question of what happens if you live with someone vulnerable, I would stress that deliberate infection should be voluntary.  If you want to quarantine yourself with a vulnerable person who is dependent on you, that is fine.  If you want to get infected and then separately quarantine until you have recovered, that would be fine too.

I just told you that the lockdowns are working earlier, and you start this response by saying that they aren't. It's like what I explained yesterday was thrown in the trash.

On the rest of this, particularly the deliberate infection (with a focus on that part about potential permanent damage that I referenced earlier, and you chose to ignore), it's a hard pass from me and practically most sane people out there who put their health over production for "the economy."

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 4/26 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

Δ Change: Day-by-day Growth or Decline or COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

<Last Numbers for 3/26-3/28 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 3/29-4/4 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/5-4/11 in this Post>

4/12: <Sunday>

• Cases: 560,323 (+27,444 | Δ Change: ↓10.20% | Σ Increase: ↑5.15%)
• Deaths: 22,108 (+1,531 | Δ Change: ↓17.33% | Σ Increase: ↑7.44%)

4/13:

• Cases: 586,941 (+26,618 | Δ Change: ↓3.01% | Σ Increase: ↑4.75%)
• Deaths: 23,640 (+1,532 | Δ Change: ↑0.07% | Σ Increase: ↑6.93%)

4/14:

• Cases: 613,886 (+26,945 | Δ Change: ↑1.23% | Σ Increase: ↑4.59%)
• Deaths: 26,047 (+2,407 | Δ Change: ↑57.11% | Σ Increase: ↑10.18%)

4/15:

• Cases: 644,089 (+30,203 | Δ Change: ↑12.09% | Σ Increase: ↑4.92%)
• Deaths: 28,529 (+2,482 | Δ Change: ↑3.12% | Σ Increase: ↑9.53%)

4/16: <Missing Older Cases & Deaths Added / Δ Change Calculations Misleading>

• Cases: 677,570 (+33,481 | Σ Increase: ↑5.20%)
• Deaths: 34,617 (+6,088 | Σ Increase: ↑21.34%)

4/17: <Δ Change Calculations Based on 4/15>

• Cases: 709,735 (+32,165 | Δ Change: ↑6.50% | Σ Increase: ↑4.09%)
• Deaths: 37,154 (+2,537 | Δ Change: ↑2.22% | Σ Increase: ↑7.33%)

4/18:

• Cases: 738,830 (+29,095 | Δ Change: ↓9.54% | Σ Increase: ↑4.75%)
• Deaths: 39,014 (+1,860 | Δ Change: ↓26.69% | Σ Increase: ↑5.01%)

4/19: <Sunday>

• Cases: 764,303 (+25,473 | Δ Change: ↓12.45% | Σ Increase: ↑3.45%)
• Deaths: 40,548 (+1,534 | Δ Change: ↓17.53% | Σ Increase: ↑3.93%)

4/20:

• Cases: 792,759 (+28,456 | Δ Change: ↑11.71% | Σ Increase: ↑3.28%)
• Deaths: 42,514 (+1,966 | Δ Change: ↑28.16% | Σ Increase: ↑4.85%)

4/21:

• Cases: 818,744 (+25,985 | Δ Change: ↓8.68% | Σ Increase: ↑3.72%)
• Deaths: 45,318 (+2,804 | Δ Change: ↑42.62% | Σ Increase: ↑6.60%)

4/22:

• Cases: 848,555 (+29,811 | Δ Change: ↑14.72% | Σ Increase: ↑3.64%)
• Deaths: 47,654 (+2,336 | Δ Change: ↓16.69% | Σ Increase: ↑5.15%)

4/23:

• Cases: 880,204 (+31,649 | Δ Change: ↑6.17% | Σ Increase: ↑3.73%)
• Deaths: 49,845 (+2,191 | Δ Change: ↓6.21% | Σ Increase: ↑4.60%)

4/24:

• Cases: 925,038 (+44,834 | Δ Change: ↑41.70% | Σ Increase: ↑5.09%)
• Deaths: 52,185 (+2,340 | Δ Change: ↑6.80% | Σ Increase: ↑4.69%)

4/25 (Yesterday):

• Cases: 960,651 (+35,613 | Δ Change: ↓20.57% | Σ Increase: ↑3.85%)
• Deaths: 54,256 (+2,071 | Δ Change: ↓11.50% | Σ Increase: ↑3.97%)

4/26 (Today): <Sunday>

• Cases: 987,160 (+26,509 | Δ Change: ↓25.56% | Σ Increase: ↑2.76%)
• Deaths: 55,413 (+1,157 | Δ Change: ↓44.13% | Σ Increase: ↑2.13%)

[Dr. Arch]

Since Arch seems to be a little late tonight, here's Nate Silver's summary from earlier today:

https://mobile.twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1254525465592725504

I didn't know that my daily posts were this expected Sorry everyone, they're up now.

[Dr. Arch]

It's funny how there is a lot of hate for DeSantis and lots of love for Whitmer, although Florida has less cases and deaths than Michigan even though it has more than double the population of the Wolverine State.

Death counts matter, but they still don't account for the fact that DeSantis is an idiot and Whitmer is not.

Correlation equals causation. Democratic governors cause death.

Off to ignore you go. I wish the old Jim were here, but he has clearly checked out for good.