COVID-19 Megathread 5: The Trumps catch COVID-19

[It’s so Joever]

anyone else wanting to go out and join one of these protests against the quarantine? heard there was one in Nashville today, should have gone but I was tied up in Knox :<

obvious troll is trolling. reported.

He isn’t a troll, he just is greatly uninformed as to the severity of the crisis.

[It’s so Joever]

I think that the following states should begin opening up now(Phase two)
-Alaska (except for Anchorage)
-Hawaii
-Parts of East Washington
-Idaho (Except for Boise)
-Montana
-Vermont
-Maine (except for Portland)

By May 1st, many more States and the excluded cities should be able to safely begin opening up.
 That being said, some States are doing things way too prematurely. Some need a sharper decline in cases (Like Georgia) or significantly more testing (Like Colorado) before it is safe.

[It’s so Joever]

I'll take the middle ground here, right now cases are declining, but once we start to reopen states and businesses what's to say it'll keep declining and now start to rise again? Wisconsin saw a spike after their election, Japan and Hong Kong are seeing a rise after they relaxed restrictions.

What?

He means Hong Kong.
The initial “outbreak” was in early February (when 50 cases meant an outbreak) and was so small compared to the second wave, it barely is noticeable on the graph.

[It’s so Joever]

I'm surprised that Polis decided not to extend the order, and he seems to be taking the concerns about the economy seriously enough. But then again, he has been one of the most cautious and measured out of all the Governors in terms of the actions which he has taken, and certainly more so than most other Democrats, so it shouldn't be that much of a surprise. And he is a businessman, so he can perhaps sympathize with those concerned about the bottom line.

That's the opposite of cautious.

How? Polis isn't "rushing to reopen" Colorado like Kemp appears to be doing in Georgia. This is only the first phase, and additional actions are dependent upon what transpires in that first phase. And as I said previously, there needs to be definite timetables in place for this process. We cannot expect for nothing to be done.

Any State with a positivity rate over 20% is in no position to reopen. That rate suggests a lack of counting, undetected growth, and a testing shortage.
Tbh it’s probably safe enough in the Western Slopes/Mountains/Far East, but the Front Range should be shutdown further.

[It’s so Joever]

Of all past epidemics/pandemics in world history, which do you all think comes as the closest analogy to what we are going through now?  

Probably somewhere between the Spanish Flu and the Asian Flu.
If I had to make a scale out of 5, Covid-19 would be in the middle.
5: Black Death/N.A Smallpox
4: Spanish Flu
3: Covid-19
2: Asian Flu/Polio
1. Swine Flu/Ebola

[It’s so Joever]

Of all past epidemics/pandemics in world history, which do you all think comes as the closest analogy to what we are going through now?  

The 1889-90 flu pandemic:

-0.1-0.3% mortality rate (serology based estimates of COVID-19 are 0.1-0.5%)
-R0 of 2.1 (COVID-19 is slightly worse, but not dramatically so)
-Infected 20-60% of world's population
-1 million deaths (world's population 1/5 the size of today's)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1889%E2%80%931890_flu_pandemic

We really don’t know how accurate the serology tests are...
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/04/19/fda-antibody-tests-coronavirus-review/%3foutputType=amp

[It’s so Joever]

Trump is suspending ALL Immigration to the U.S

https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1252418369170501639?s=21

He should have done this back in March.

[It’s so Joever]

I think that the following states should begin opening up now(Phase two)
-Alaska (except for Anchorage)
-Hawaii
-Parts of East Washington
-Idaho (Except for Boise)
-Montana
-Vermont
-Maine (except for Portland)

By May 1st, many more States and the excluded cities should be able to safely begin opening up.
 That being said, some States are doing things way too prematurely. Some need a sharper decline in cases (Like Georgia) or significantly more testing (Like Colorado) before it is safe.

What's stopping someone from going from say, California/Washington/Oregon, and going to Montana and causing another outbreak though?

I mean, States should also be banning non-essential interstate travel (with a few exceptions for border communities)

[It’s so Joever]

The treatment front:

-Remdesivir
Status: Very Promising

-Plasma treatments
Status: Very Promising

-Hydroxychloroquine
Status: Questionable

-Colchicine
Status: Interesting

-Malarial Drugs
Status: Losing battle

-Nitric Oxide
Status: Interesting

-Baricitinib
Status: Interesting

They should do research on medicinal Marijuana for Covid-19. Considering Cannabis helps with many other diseases, it may as well be looked into.

[It’s so Joever]

The US is going to set a new daily record for deaths today (at least according to the worldometers count).  The models that projected the peak to come around April 10 were clearly way off.

I think the IHME and Meclazine’s models will be proven inaccurate as well, but do note that there is a margin of error within these things due to problems with reporting and natural variation. The number of deaths today still seems to be within the MoE of the projections, so don’t be too pessimistic.

[It’s so Joever]

The “China created the virus” theory will turn out like the USS Maine or Tonkin Gulf.

[It’s so Joever]

Am I the only one who thinks that Gilead is just leaking results so they can pump their stock prices?

I just have zero faith that anything works at this point.

No, Remdesivir was proven to work against SARS and MERS coronaviruses before, so I don’t see why it’s such a stretch for it to work in a relatively similar virus.

[It’s so Joever]

It’s funny how everyone is attacking only GOP governors.
Jared Polis is reopening tattoo parlors and nail salons and has yet to be the target of media outrage. It’s ludicrous.

[It’s so Joever]

It’s funny how everyone is attacking only GOP governors.
Jared Polis is reopening tattoo parlors and nail salons and has yet to be the target of media outrage. It’s ludicrous.

When do you think such facilities ought to reopen? I certainly agree that they shouldn't be part of "Phase 1", however you wish to define that. Mid or late May perhaps?

I say when daily cases begin to go down to around 100-200 per day on a 5 day average/and we have conducted over 10,000 tests per 1M Statewide (we are extremely close), we can start reopening them with safety precautions.
If by some misfortunate, these two don’t happen by May 20th, I would reopen these facilities anyways.

Obviously it’s different for Colorado than for a larger State.
I also would be perfectly okay with Polis allowing rural counties to have more leeway as long as they have testing capabilities. I just can’t fathom the idea of hair salons reopening in the Denver Metro-area this early. I hope our local officials take some extra measures, but I am not so sure what the tri-county Health department will do at this point.

[It’s so Joever]

Interesting opinion piece from CNN: When Denver backed off social distancing in the 1918 pandemic, the results were deadly

History really repeats itself here.

[It’s so Joever]

It’s funny how everyone is attacking only GOP governors.
Jared Polis is reopening tattoo parlors and nail salons and has yet to be the target of media outrage. It’s ludicrous.

This isn't true - Polis is reopening, but taking a phased approach. Colorado isn't going full Georgia

Except that “phase approach” opens up several completely nonessential businesses with high risk of close contact, all while testing is ridiculously low and cases per day are still at a peak.
Sure, it’s not Georgia, but that’s not a good metric.
Other GOP governors are being attacked and would rightfully be attacked taking the same steps Polis did.

[It’s so Joever]

Colorado Covid-19 Update:
Covid-19 cases in Colorado increased by over 400, a sudden jump in new cases per day. All that being said, we had more processed tests today than the past few days, and positivity % actually went down. That’s both good and bad. Good in that it may be today’s case rise is just a function of more testing, but bad in that we are severely underestimating the number of cases.
Regardless, I will enjoy watching Polis pretend things are getting better tomorrow.
It also appears that as in other States, minorities are severely over represented in deaths. Whether this is due to preexisting conditions, lower income, genetic predispositions, or a mix of the three isn’t really known.
Regardless
Also, starting this Friday, NJH intends to offer antibody testing for those who don’t have symptoms currently but believe they may have had Covid.

[It’s so Joever]

Las Vegas Mayor Karen Carolyn Goodman's interview with the manager Anderson Cooper goes viral for suggesting that the people in her city be a "control group" to see if the curve will rise, among other really dumb statements

Why is Cooper touching his face?

Your trolling is bad.

[It’s so Joever]

https://mobile.twitter.com/grynbaum/status/1253142566708473856

This is the study that found no benefit in treatment but an increase in deaths among those given it.

They keep pushing this just because Trump said it. I thought of a possible treatment that turns out to actually help (blood plasma), but I'm not the President.

Not to mention Remdesivir and a bunch of other treatments that have shown promise. But no, keep doubling down on Hydrox.

OK,

Good news for the Europe and USA. All appear to be on the downward slope now to recovery. The interesting thing about this pandemic is the limited time period displayed in all countries including South Korea and China. 1 month up and 1-2 months down the curve in most instances with a slight variation in the length in some countries.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

I have to disagree with you here. U.S cases are NOT going down, we added more cases today than yesterday and we added 30k+ new cases today....

I don't think you understand the difference between active cases and new cases.

Also, yes, case rates are going town. Slowly at first though.

When I say added cases I meant new cases

We are seeing a steady decline in case growth, but as soon as States lift restrictions too early, our numbers will shoot up again. Things are going well now, but I am pessimistic that our governors will make the right calls.

[It’s so Joever]

That escalated quickly.

Because of this, those "protests" deserve to lose all the support they ever had.

Anti-freedom racism like that doesn't belong at a rally that claims to stand for freedom.

Montana and Colorado are trying to reopen responsibly after the ongoing disaster. Garbage like this really sets the effort back.

Montana is a State which has obviously seen its peak in new cases and since has seen sharp declines, is pretty rural, and has a higher testing per capita rate than Colorado. To compare the level-headed approach in Montana as opposed to the irrational, Libertarian-pandering approach in Colorado is laughable at best.

[It’s so Joever]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1253329870790078466

This model doesn't take into account anything about how we have observed COVID-19 actually spreading thus far or environmental factors (like warmer weather, less reliance on public transit, etc.) that favor the South.  Urban areas have higher infection rates despite doing relatively more social distancing, and I don't expect that to change once things start gradually opening back up.

What are your thoughts on Georgia reopening tomorrow? Even Trump has said that he disagrees with that decision, and in my view, it is reckless. Sure, the South may have factors that work to its favor, but nothing can be taken for granted, and there should be at least some precautions in place when reopening the economy.

I think something's got to give in regards to the stay-at-home restrictions.  Georgia appears to be blazing a trail, but the relaxations are more measured then what is being reported in the media. I don't see it as any less controlled than Colorado's phased-in reopening on April 26.  The most important aspect of Kemp's plan, IMO, is allowing hospitals to resume elective procedures (i.e., like hip replacement surgeries) with is going to help immensely with severe financial bleeding hospitals are seeing due to the cessation of most outpatient procedures. 

Don’t you remember?
When Kemp does it, it’s a mass murder, but when Polis does it, it’s just responsible reopening.

[It’s so Joever]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1253329870790078466

This model doesn't take into account anything about how we have observed COVID-19 actually spreading thus far or environmental factors (like warmer weather, less reliance on public transit, etc.) that favor the South.  Urban areas have higher infection rates despite doing relatively more social distancing, and I don't expect that to change once things start gradually opening back up.

What are your thoughts on Georgia reopening tomorrow? Even Trump has said that he disagrees with that decision, and in my view, it is reckless. Sure, the South may have factors that work to its favor, but nothing can be taken for granted, and there should be at least some precautions in place when reopening the economy.

I think something's got to give in regards to the stay-at-home restrictions.  Georgia appears to be blazing a trail, but the relaxations are more measured then what is being reported in the media. I don't see it as any less controlled than Colorado's phased-in reopening on April 26.  The most important aspect of Kemp's plan, IMO, is allowing hospitals to resume elective procedures (i.e., like hip replacement surgeries) with is going to help immensely with severe financial bleeding hospitals are seeing due to the cessation of most outpatient procedures. 

Don’t you remember?
When Kemp does it, it’s a mass murder, but when Polis does it, it’s just responsible reopening.

It is more than reasonable 2 have significantly greater suspicion of the motives and judgment of such decisions made by leaders who openly scoffed at and downplayed the outbreak from day one, as opposed to those who took the matter seriously and enacted prompt responsible shut down measures.

 I admittedly am skeptical of reopening hair salons and tattoo parlors this early, and I'm not yet willing to say Polis is making the right decision here. However, it is not unreasonable to trust someone like Kemp significantly less when his entire record and rhetoric the last several weeks have shown consistently poor leadership and foresight.

I judge leaders by their actions, and currently, both Polis and Kemp are taking dangerous actions given the circumstances in their states. I would like to add that I honestly don’t really trust Jared Polis that much. I mean, I trust him more than Kemp, but that is basically a battle of minimal trust vs zero trust. He seems like the exact type of man who would willingly sacrifice the lives of Coloradans for his own stock portfolio.

[It’s so Joever]

Liberals be like...

2001: THE PATRIOT ACT INFRINGES ON OUR RIGHTS ARGGGGGG! !
2020: Government takes my rights, and I’ll cower in the corner in my home. My safe space.

You be like:
2001: The Patriot Act is for our own security
2020: OML SHUTDOWNS ARE BASICALLY COMMUNISM

Besides, why can’t a liberal like both?

[It’s so Joever]

We are going down.
I hate to be on the “less alarmist” side, but the facts are clear. It is a very slow descent, like Italy, which is too be expected given our weak enforcement of lockdowns. Most of the drops are due to New York and Michigan at this rate, so the trends do vary by State, but nationwide here is a slow decrease. The real problem is when governors take this news as an excuse to reopen without thinking, which ends the decrease and begins new exponential case growth. We are going down right now, and that isn’t really disputable. The real question is whether we will still go down after governors cave in to the Libertarians and virus-truthers.

[It’s so Joever]

Another day another 30k new cases sadly this isnt slowing down

Can you stop? You realize not only is our testing system being swelled currently, but it's also Thursday, which is basically the anti-Sunday in terms of new positives.

So what are the chances schools don't meet in the fall?

The chance of the initial crisis continuing into July even, is close to 0.

How do you think things will be looking in 3 months from now on this date? The 23rd?

Pretty close to normal. Maybe 100-200 cases per day, with 3-10 deaths per day.

That would be fantastic news, but unfortunately I suspect you are being wildly overoptimistic.

Fortunately for you and everyone else, i'm not. This is the neutral scenario, and it's what the models and experts are saying.

Well a lot of these models had us starting the descend a week ago and only say we will have 60k deaths... we are going to blow past that in 2 weeks

We did descend a week ago, and we are still descending now.

I'm disproving your bs takes that we are somehow on the descend. I keep track just like you do and we are not going down the quicker you learn this fact the quicker this thread will be free of your useless drivel

It's a slow decline right now but it's going to go down faster very soon. You can't look at that graph and not notice the slight decline over the past week.

A rapid decline like you suggest will only occur with far more enforcement of lockdowns and a crackdown on non-essential travel between more affected States. Unfortunately, our politicians seem to want to veer the other way without thinking. Even keeping what we have now would see a decline, but it will be slow.