COVID-19 Megathread 5: The Trumps catch COVID-19

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

It’s almost as if....deaths lag.

Right, they tend to lag 7-14 days, but not 4 weeks.  So it would make sense that deaths are increasing this week in AZ/FL/TX given that we saw a big spike in cases the previous week.  By contrast, we haven't seen an increase in deaths in CA or NC where cases have been increasing steadily but more slowly for two or three months.

[Mr. Reactionary]

Article

Banning religious singing while blessing marxist riots. It is my opinion that I hope Californians violently oppose this and the evil governor. Thus is beyond tyrannical.

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://twitter.com/thehowie/status/1280524580801708032

[Brittain33]

Article

Banning religious singing while blessing marxist riots. It is my opinion that I hope Californians violently oppose this and the evil governor. Thus is beyond tyrannical.

Rioting (violence, destroying private property, looting) is illegal and always has been.
Peaceful protest is protected by the 1st Amendment and when people wear masks, hasn’t been shown to cause a public health risk. It’s a combination of being outside and people wearing masks that makes it safe.
Singing indoors with groups has been the source of multiple superspreader events leading to illness and deaths. This is a smart and sensible public health measure which will save lives. If you’re “pro-life”, you’ll stand with the government.

[Mr. Reactionary]

Article

Banning religious singing while blessing marxist riots. It is my opinion that I hope Californians violently oppose this and the evil governor. Thus is beyond tyrannical.

Rioting (violence, destroying private property, looting) is illegal and always has been.
Peaceful protest is protected by the 1st Amendment and when people wear masks, hasn’t been shown to cause a public health risk. It’s a combination of being outside and people wearing masks that makes it safe.
Singing indoors with groups has been the source of multiple superspreader events leading to illness and deaths. This is a smart and sensible public health measure which will save lives. If you’re “pro-life”, you’ll stand with the government.

Im not "pro-life" im "pro-freedom". Religious worship is more important to me than "peaceful" protests. Especially when enforcement is extremely discriminatory. The media literally called it terrorism to protest the lockdowns then immediately flipflopped if you were protesting for communist garbage. There is nothing sensible about this. This is a fricking authoritarian coup via the big corporations who control the media.

[Joe Biden 2024]

https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/prevention-cures/506164-customers-anti-mask-tantrums-in-costco-target-go?fbclid=IwAR3-Cerkfd3nPwJg3nDoxSr3cxQaIeBem6Os6evvUsVXlkF-PLSwJykIfXA&fbclid=IwAR3XdrcS7uq3CQDUXgoos3htXhR3jKdU6SO39cVLXst_XFzj1qzLBOja2QM

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Article

Banning religious singing while blessing marxist riots. It is my opinion that I hope Californians violently oppose this and the evil governor. Thus is beyond tyrannical.

Rioting (violence, destroying private property, looting) is illegal and always has been.
Peaceful protest is protected by the 1st Amendment and when people wear masks, hasn’t been shown to cause a public health risk. It’s a combination of being outside and people wearing masks that makes it safe.
Singing indoors with groups has been the source of multiple superspreader events leading to illness and deaths. This is a smart and sensible public health measure which will save lives. If you’re “pro-life”, you’ll stand with the government.

Im not "pro-life" im "pro-freedom". Religious worship is more important to me than "peaceful" protests. Especially when enforcement is extremely discriminatory. The media literally called it terrorism to protest the lockdowns then immediately flipflopped if you were protesting for communist garbage. There is nothing sensible about this. This is a fricking authoritarian coup via the big corporations who control the media.

The people in the anti-lockdown protests weren't wearing masks.  They were also literally bringing guns inside of state capitols, so I don't see how they can be called peaceful.

If people in churches are wearing masks, I don't think the sort of speech they engage in should be regulated, and that includes singing (though it would probably sound strange).

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://twitter.com/4everNeverTrump/status/1280545832727539713

[GP270watch]

 Anytime black people want freedom it's a "marxist plot". Those Southern racists and many in the government said the same thing about Dr. King. Such a tired old racist talking point.

[Mr. Reactionary]

Article

Banning religious singing while blessing marxist riots. It is my opinion that I hope Californians violently oppose this and the evil governor. Thus is beyond tyrannical.

Rioting (violence, destroying private property, looting) is illegal and always has been.
Peaceful protest is protected by the 1st Amendment and when people wear masks, hasn’t been shown to cause a public health risk. It’s a combination of being outside and people wearing masks that makes it safe.
Singing indoors with groups has been the source of multiple superspreader events leading to illness and deaths. This is a smart and sensible public health measure which will save lives. If you’re “pro-life”, you’ll stand with the government.

Im not "pro-life" im "pro-freedom". Religious worship is more important to me than "peaceful" protests. Especially when enforcement is extremely discriminatory. The media literally called it terrorism to protest the lockdowns then immediately flipflopped if you were protesting for communist garbage. There is nothing sensible about this. This is a fricking authoritarian coup via the big corporations who control the media.

The people in the anti-lockdown protests weren't wearing masks.  They were also literally bringing guns inside of state capitols, so I don't see how they can be called peaceful.

Have you not seen the lack of masks and guns at the BLM protests? There was a gun battle in Louisville between armed BLM supporters. A BLM supporter in Provo straight up shot a random dude driving by and went back to protesting. CHAZ routinely walked around with guns and murdered multiple unarmed black teens. A group of unmasked BLM supporters with clubs attacked praying catholics in St Louis before threatening to burn down a random couple's house. A BLM mob in Atlanta murdered a little black girl for the crime of pulling in to a parking lot near the Wendy's they burned down. 200 armed BLM protesters marched at Stone Mountain this weekend calling for race war. In Madison they attacked a gay democrat Senator. They attacked a truck driver in Minneapolis al a Rodney King. In Portland at one protest they literally said only whites have to wear masks. BLM smashed courthouse windows in Richmond and Willliamsburg last week. Armed BLM protesters marched alongside boogaloo bois in Richmond on saturday. Hundreds of cops injured. Hundreds of arsons. Dozens and dozens of public artworks destroyed. And if you look plenty of non mask wearers.

How in the hell are antilockdown protesters the "terrorists" here? Not a single instance of violence or vandalism. The past month actual violence seems like the frickin pattern at these "peaceful" protests. And pretty much no one on the left seems willing to talk about it.

[jimrtex]

It’s almost as if....deaths lag.

Right, they tend to lag 7-14 days, but not 4 weeks.  So it would make sense that deaths are increasing this week in AZ/FL/TX given that we saw a big spike in cases the previous week.  By contrast, we haven't seen an increase in deaths in CA or NC where cases have been increasing steadily but more slowly for two or three months.

The lagging deaths/new cases has declined dramatically in Texas.

	14-day	7-day
15-Apr	6.19%	3.49%
1-May	3.91%	4.10%
15-May	4.17%	3.63%
1-Jun	1.71%	2.07%
15-Jun	1.65%	1.37%
1-Jul	1.40%	0.78%

For July 1, the new deaths are for June 25-July 1; and the new cases for June 18-June 24; and June 11-June 17.

The 7-day lagged rate appears to be more volatile, sometimes above the 14-day and sometimes below, which suggests that the 14-day is more reliable. That is, when cases surge, the 7-day rate drops dramatically, indicating that some of those who will die have not died yet.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

The media continues to report on covid deaths with either no awareness or willful disregard for the weekend and holiday effects (along with typical daily fluctuations) that have been obvious for three months.

On one hand, you have this story in the Washington Post last night:

Virginia reports no daily coronavirus deaths as region sees smallest case increase since April

No covid deaths in Virginia!  Woo hoo, looks like the pandemic is over here!
 
But of course, my state immediately reported 28 deaths today, and the average deaths are still rising compared to a few weeks back.  One day with zero deaths is much more evidence of recording problems than any true progress against the virus.

One the other hand, you have this tweet that was posted in this thread earlier today.

https://twitter.com/thehowie/status/1280524580801708032

BREAKING NEWS! New record of 113 (actually 117) in AZ!  LOTS OF CAPS!

This ignores the fact that Arizona reported a total of 22 deaths across the previous 3 days, for an average of 35 deaths/day during holiday period of July 4-7 (including today's 117).  The average of the previous 7 days (ending July 3) was 37 deaths.

Deaths are indeed rising in Arizona, but there is nothing meaningful about today's total in particular, beyond exposing problems or idiosyncrasies in reporting.  (I believe it will jump the 7-day average to an all-time high in AZ, but only because the previous daily high was exactly six days ago.)

[YE]

https://twitter.com/nvwhittemore/status/1280163225259044865?s=21

[Lisa's voting Biden]

Trump has withdrawn the US from WHO:
https://twitter.com/SenatorMenendez/status/1280556507365597190?s=20

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Trump has withdrawn the US from WHO:
https://twitter.com/SenatorMenendez/status/1280556507365597190?s=20

"Trump would withdraw the US from the World Health Organization in the middle of a pandemic" is the kind of thing that, if you had said it four years ago, would have gotten you dismissed as a partisan hack engaging in baseless scaremongering.

[Damocles]

Trump has withdrawn the US from WHO:
https://twitter.com/SenatorMenendez/status/1280556507365597190?s=20

Ahhh, I love having our country isolated from international institutional relevance through a series of self-inflicted wounds based on empty nationalistic rhetoric... /s

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

https://mobile.twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1280520660876492801

(For real, this time I think...?)

[cg41386]

Article

Banning religious singing while blessing marxist riots. It is my opinion that I hope Californians violently oppose this and the evil governor. Thus is beyond tyrannical.

Rioting (violence, destroying private property, looting) is illegal and always has been.
Peaceful protest is protected by the 1st Amendment and when people wear masks, hasn’t been shown to cause a public health risk. It’s a combination of being outside and people wearing masks that makes it safe.
Singing indoors with groups has been the source of multiple superspreader events leading to illness and deaths. This is a smart and sensible public health measure which will save lives. If you’re “pro-life”, you’ll stand with the government.

Im not "pro-life" im "pro-freedom". Religious worship is more important to me than "peaceful" protests. Especially when enforcement is extremely discriminatory. The media literally called it terrorism to protest the lockdowns then immediately flipflopped if you were protesting for communist garbage. There is nothing sensible about this. This is a fricking authoritarian coup via the big corporations who control the media.

Yawn. You don’t need a church to worship. Worship from home.

[Brittain33]

Article

Banning religious singing while blessing marxist riots. It is my opinion that I hope Californians violently oppose this and the evil governor. Thus is beyond tyrannical.

Rioting (violence, destroying private property, looting) is illegal and always has been.
Peaceful protest is protected by the 1st Amendment and when people wear masks, hasn’t been shown to cause a public health risk. It’s a combination of being outside and people wearing masks that makes it safe.
Singing indoors with groups has been the source of multiple superspreader events leading to illness and deaths. This is a smart and sensible public health measure which will save lives. If you’re “pro-life”, you’ll stand with the government.

Im not "pro-life" im "pro-freedom". Religious worship is more important to me than "peaceful" protests. Especially when enforcement is extremely discriminatory. The media literally called it terrorism to protest the lockdowns then immediately flipflopped if you were protesting for communist garbage. There is nothing sensible about this. This is a fricking authoritarian coup via the big corporations who control the media.

Can I ask you something, since I haven't really picked up on you before as a distinctive poster.

Are you being serious in any of this? I mean, seriously, when the state discourages singing in church because it's killed people, you don't understand why they do that? I'm trying to understand what motivates you here.

[It’s so Joever]

Article

Banning religious singing while blessing marxist riots. It is my opinion that I hope Californians violently oppose this and the evil governor. Thus is beyond tyrannical.

Rioting (violence, destroying private property, looting) is illegal and always has been.
Peaceful protest is protected by the 1st Amendment and when people wear masks, hasn’t been shown to cause a public health risk. It’s a combination of being outside and people wearing masks that makes it safe.
Singing indoors with groups has been the source of multiple superspreader events leading to illness and deaths. This is a smart and sensible public health measure which will save lives. If you’re “pro-life”, you’ll stand with the government.

Im not "pro-life" im "pro-freedom". Religious worship is more important to me than "peaceful" protests. Especially when enforcement is extremely discriminatory. The media literally called it terrorism to protest the lockdowns then immediately flipflopped if you were protesting for communist garbage. There is nothing sensible about this. This is a fricking authoritarian coup via the big corporations who control the media.

“The scary media is attempting to coup the US and turn us into an authoritarian society!”

I remind Atlas that this guy was the same one who called me and Beet “Chickensh1ts” who panicked over nothing.

[Damocles]

“The scary media is attempting to coup the US and turn us into an authoritarian society!”

I remind Atlas that this guy was the same one who called me and Beet “Chickensh1ts” who panicked over nothing.

You’re lucky that I just bought popcorn at the grocery store today. 🍿

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Deaths have shot way up today. Of course, that is partly due to under-reporting deaths over the 4th of July weekend. However, if some of the deaths reported today were re-allocated to the weekend, that wouldn't make a difference for the current 7-day moving average, and with the deaths reported today it seems that the 7-day moving average has probably stabilized for the time being and may be starting to go up.

As a reminder, this is exactly when we would expect deaths to bottom and start rising if we have a similar trajectory to Iran in its 2nd wave based on the length of the lag between the Iranian case increase and their death increase.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Anytime black people want freedom it's a "marxist plot". Those Southern racists and many in the government said the same thing about Dr. King. Such a tired old racist talking point.

There is also apparently no means of protesting for that freedom which is acceptable either.

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 7/7 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

Δ Change: Day-by-day Growth or Decline or COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

<Last Numbers for 3/26-3/28 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 3/29-4/4 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/5-4/11 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/12-4/18 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/19-4/25 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 4/26-5/2 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/3-5/9 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/10-5/16 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/17-5/23 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/24-5/30 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/31-6/6 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 6/7-6/13 in this post>

6/14: <Sunday>

• Cases: 2,162,144 (+19,920 | Δ Change: ↓21.27% | Σ Increase: ↑0.93%)
• Deaths: 117,853 (+326 | Δ Change: ↓53.56% | Σ Increase: ↑0.28%)

6/15:

• Cases: 2,182,950 (+20,806 | Δ Change: ↑4.45% | Σ Increase: ↑0.96%)
• Deaths: 118,283 (+430 | Δ Change: ↑31.90% | Σ Increase: ↑0.36%)

6/16:

• Cases: 2,208,400 (+25,450 | Δ Change: ↑22.32% | Σ Increase: ↑1.17%)
• Deaths: 119,132 (+849 | Δ Change: ↑97.44% | Σ Increase: ↑0.72%)

6/17:

• Cases: 2,234,471 (+26,071 | Δ Change: ↑2.44% | Σ Increase: ↑1.18%)
• Deaths: 119,941 (+809 | Δ Change: ↓4.71% | Σ Increase: ↑0.68%)

6/18:

• Cases: 2,263,651 (+29,180 | Δ Change: ↑11.93% | Σ Increase: ↑1.31%)
• Deaths: 120,688 (+747 | Δ Change: ↓7.66% | Σ Increase: ↑0.62%)

6/19:

• Cases: 2,297,190 (+33,539 | Δ Change: ↑14.94% | Σ Increase: ↑1.48%)
• Deaths: 121,407 (+719 | Δ Change: ↓3.75% | Σ Increase: ↑0.60%)

6/20:

• Cases: 2,330,578 (+33,388 | Δ Change: ↓0.45% | Σ Increase: ↑1.45%)
• Deaths: 121,980 (+573 | Δ Change: ↓20.31% | Σ Increase: ↑0.47%)

6/21: <Sunday>

• Cases: 2,356,657 (+26,079 | Δ Change: ↓21.89% | Σ Increase: ↑1.12%)
• Deaths: 122,247 (+267 | Δ Change: ↓53.40% | Σ Increase: ↑0.22%)

6/22:

• Cases: 2,388,153 (+31,496 | Δ Change: ↑20.77% | Σ Increase: ↑1.34%)
• Deaths: 122,610 (+363 | Δ Change: ↑35.96% | Σ Increase: ↑0.30%)

6/23:

• Cases: 2,424,168 (+36,015 | Δ Change: ↑14.35% | Σ Increase: ↑1.51%)
• Deaths: 123,473 (+863 | Δ Change: ↑137.74% | Σ Increase: ↑0.70%)
• Death toll inflated by older counts recently dumped by DE

6/24:

• Cases: 2,462,554 (+38,386 | Δ Change: ↑6.18% | Σ Increase: ↑1.58%)
• Deaths: 124,281 (+808 | Δ Change: ↓6.37% | Σ Increase: ↑0.65%)

6/25:

• Cases: 2,504,588 (+42,034 | Δ Change: ↑9.50% | Σ Increase: ↑1.71%)
• Deaths: 126,780 (+2,499 | Δ Change: ↑209.28% | Σ Increase: ↑2.01%)
• Death toll inflated by older counts recently dumped by NJ

6/26:

• Cases: 2,552,940 (+48,352 | Δ Change: ↑15.03% | Σ Increase: ↑1.93%)
• Deaths: 127,640 (+860 | Δ Change: ↓65.59% | Σ Increase: ↑0.68%)
• Death Δ Change affected by older counts recently dumped by NJ on 6/25

6/27:

• Cases: 2,596,537 (+43,597 | Δ Change: ↓9.83% | Σ Increase: ↑1.71%)
• Deaths: 128,152 (+512 | Δ Change: ↓40.47% | Σ Increase: ↑0.40%)

6/28: <Sunday>

• Cases: 2,637,077 (+40,540 | Δ Change: ↓7.01% | Σ Increase: ↑1.56%)
• Deaths: 128,437 (+285 | Δ Change: ↓44.34% | Σ Increase: ↑0.22%)

6/29:

• Cases: 2,681,802 (+44,725 | Δ Change: ↑10.32% | Σ Increase: ↑1.70%)
• Deaths: 128,779 (+342 | Δ Change: ↑20.00% | Σ Increase: ↑0.27%)

6/30:

• Cases: 2,727,853 (+46,051 | Δ Change: ↑2.96% | Σ Increase: ↑1.72%)
• Deaths: 130,122 (+1,343 | Δ Change: ↑292.69% | Σ Increase: ↑1.04%)

7/1:

• Cases: 2,779,953 (+52,100 | Δ Change: ↑13.14% | Σ Increase: ↑1.91%)
• Deaths: 130,798 (+676 | Δ Change: ↓49.66% | Σ Increase: ↑0.52%)

7/2:

• Cases: 2,837,189 (+57,236 | Δ Change: ↑9.86% | Σ Increase: ↑2.06%)
• Deaths: 131,485 (+687 | Δ Change: ↑1.62% | Σ Increase: ↑0.53%)

7/3:

• Cases: 2,890,588 (+53,399 | Δ Change: ↓6.70% | Σ Increase: ↑1.88%)
• Deaths: 132,101 (+616 | Δ Change: ↓10.33% | Σ Increase: ↑0.47%)

7/4:

• Cases: 2,935,770 (+45,182 | Δ Change: ↓15.39% | Σ Increase: ↑1.56%)
• Deaths: 132,318 (+212 | Δ Change: ↓65.58% | Σ Increase: ↑0.16%)

7/5: <Sunday>

• Cases: 2,982,928 (+47,158 | Δ Change: ↑4.37% | Σ Increase: ↑1.61%)
• Deaths: 132,569 (+251 | Δ Change: ↑18.40% | Σ Increase: ↑0.19%)

7/6 (Yesterday):

• Cases: 3,040,833 (+57,905 | Δ Change: ↑22.79% | Σ Increase: ↑1.94%)
• Deaths: 132,979 (+410 | Δ Change: ↑63.35% | Σ Increase: ↑0.31%)

7/7 (Today):

• Cases: 3,097,084 (+56,251 | Δ Change: ↓2.86% | Σ Increase: ↑1.85%)
• Deaths: 133,972 (+993 | Δ Change: ↑142.20% | Σ Increase: ↑0.75%)

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Deaths have shot way up today. Of course, that is partly due to under-reporting deaths over the 4th of July weekend. However, if some of the deaths reported today were re-allocated to the weekend, that wouldn't make a difference for the current 7-day moving average, and with the deaths reported today it seems that the 7-day moving average has probably stabilized for the time being and may be starting to go up.

As a reminder, this is exactly when we would expect deaths to bottom and start rising if we have a similar trajectory to Iran in its 2nd wave based on the length of the lag between the Iranian case increase and their death increase.

Yeah, there were ~250 fewer deaths on Saturday than the previous week because of the holiday, then ~250 more deaths today than last Tuesday as all the records were catching up.  The same thing happened on Memorial Day weekend.

Right now it’s clear that deaths in a handful of states where infections really surged the last two weeks are going up (FL, TX, AZ), deaths in several states that saw their infections surge months ago are still going down (NY, MA, IL), and deaths in states where infections have gone up more gradually over several months have remained flat (CA, NC).  

Whether this nets out to a positive or a negative at the national level going forward is unclear.  The 7-day average today stands at 556, compared with 559 last Tuesday.  My guess is we will see a slight rise for the next week or two before the death rate starts to fall again at its previous pace.