COVID-19 Megathread 5: The Trumps catch COVID-19

[Calthrina950]

I use the average of the Corona Scanner and Worldometers numbers, and today was the lowest number of new cases in the U.S. since those horrid times way back on March 31.

Incidentally, the peak was April 9. No other day is close.

I have a question for you. How has the situation proceeded in Kentucky thus far? I haven't heard much about that state's outbreak in recent weeks.

[Calthrina950]

I have a question for you. How has the situation proceeded in Kentucky thus far? I haven't heard much about that state's outbreak in recent weeks.

Right now, Kentucky is dealing with a backlog of cases, but the overall number of cases is pretty low. Kentucky has begun to periodically offer drive-up testing sites.

And Kentucky really does have a "soft lockdown." Kentucky might not be that militant about it, but it really is a lockdown even if they never call it that. People are outdoors a lot, but they're very meticulous about the 6-foot distance (as they should be). The real problem is that the lockdown has completely shattered our society. For a month, I've literally had an unrelenting pain in my heart about this.

People can't tolerate much more.

Last I checked, my county had 54 cases among 90,000 people.

I see. How would you rate Beshear's response? I've given some praise to it before, but I've heard things about "restrictions on church services" or something to the effect. How are people in your state viewing his response? Here in Colorado, the response to Polis' measures is shaping up along partisan lines, as Republicans are becoming increasingly critical of them, and have resumed with their prior denunciations of his record.

[Calthrina950]

I see. How would you rate Beshear's response? I've given some praise to it before, but I've heard things about "restrictions on church services" or something to the effect. How are people in your state viewing his response? Here in Colorado, the response to Polis' measures is shaping up along partisan lines, as Republicans are becoming increasingly critical of them, and have resumed with their prior denunciations of his record.

Beshear is maybe slightly better than 49 other governors, but most of the other governors are absolutely terrible.

Most people say he has a good response, but I think it's because he's tried to act calm and gentle at his press conferences instead of going off the rails. Almost all churches have suspended services anyway, and a few have drive-in services.

I see. Which governors do you think have had the best response? You seem to be one of the few left-leaning posters on here who has expressed real and genuine concern about the expansion of governmental authority in this time of crisis, at least elevating it above the other considerations attached with the pandemic.

[Calthrina950]

I see. Which governors do you think have had the best response? You seem to be one of the few left-leaning posters on here who has expressed real and genuine concern about the expansion of governmental authority in this time of crisis, at least elevating it above the other considerations attached with the pandemic.

Beshear may very well be the best.

I'm not really against stepping up some government regulations during a pandemic, but the complete lockdowns are unrealistic and are doing real damage to social institutions. I've read several articles that said lockdowns have led to suicides and domestic violence.

I've heard about this as well. There was a report on my local media stating that calls to the Suicide TipLine in Colorado have increased significantly since the beginning of the pandemic. Some Governors, though, are now beginning to extend the shutdowns. Like I've said, I don't think we are ready to open up yet, but there needs to be real and definite timetables in place, so that people know when a sense of normalcy will return. Governors need to be much clearer on those kinds of details.

[Calthrina950]

Look, all I know is that I'm running out of movies to watch -- just had to go deep into the bargain bin with Honey, We Shrunk Ourselves.  MAJOR problem here, folks. 

I could - y'know - study, but where's the fun in that?

I've had similar problems, in terms of keeping myself disciplined enough to get homework done, while being distracted by other things. Especially since I have several papers to write, one of which is due in ten days. Online learning definitely does require one to keep themselves in check, even though I've had online classes before.

[Calthrina950]

Governor Polis has announced that the stay-at-home order will end on April 26, as originally scheduled: https://gazette.com/news/local/polis-says-stay-at-home-order-will-end-sunday-outlines-first-phase-for-reopening-the/article_59b7b738-833f-11ea-aabb-776f58e5104e.html, and outlined the first phase for reopening the state, which he calls "Safer at Home." Mask wearing will remain mandatory for essential employees, bars/restaurants will still be required to offer curbside services, and protocols for keeping workforce/customer capacity down and for encouraging work from home will be in place. He says that depending on how things go, more activities may be allowed to resume in mid-May.

I'm surprised that Polis decided not to extend the order, and he seems to be taking the concerns about the economy seriously enough. But then again, he has been one of the most cautious and measured out of all the Governors in terms of the actions which he has taken, and certainly more so than most other Democrats, so it shouldn't be that much of a surprise. And he is a businessman, so he can perhaps sympathize with those concerned about the bottom line.

[Calthrina950]

Governor Polis has announced that the stay-at-home order will end on April 26, as originally scheduled: https://gazette.com/news/local/polis-says-stay-at-home-order-will-end-sunday-outlines-first-phase-for-reopening-the/article_59b7b738-833f-11ea-aabb-776f58e5104e.html, and outlined the first phase for reopening the state, which he calls "Safer at Home." Mask wearing will remain mandatory for essential employees, bars/restaurants will still be required to offer curbside services, and protocols for keeping workforce/customer capacity down and for encouraging work from home will be in place. He says that depending on how things go, more activities may be allowed to resume in mid-May.

I'm surprised that Polis decided not to extend the order, and he seems to be taking the concerns about the economy seriously enough. But then again, he has been one of the most cautious and measured out of all the Governors in terms of the actions which he has taken, and certainly more so than most other Democrats, so it shouldn't be that much of a surprise. And he is a businessman, so he can perhaps sympathize with those concerned about the bottom line.

Isn't there an outbreak going on in Denver?

I haven't heard much about Denver in recent weeks, but it wouldn't surprise me if this were the case. I live in Colorado Springs, and Denver is of course a much more densely populated (and populous in general) city. Nevertheless, I am of the viewpoint that a shutdown is unsustainable beyond June, and while I may have extended the order if I were in a position of authority, I think that what is being proposed here is reasonable enough. In states where the curve has flattened, we can begin to take steps to adjust our response.

[Calthrina950]

With the rate that states are going, this is going to be a continued outright pandemic for months ahead with more cases and more deaths. It's shameful.

What is your timeline for reopening the economy? A shutdown lasting for several months is unsustainable.

[Calthrina950]

With the rate that states are going, this is going to be a continued outright pandemic for months ahead with more cases and more deaths. It's shameful.

What is your timeline for reopening the economy? A shutdown lasting for several months is unsustainable.

The economy shouldn't reopen until June IMO. The nation still doesn't have a clear handle on this, and people need to stop prioritizing the economy over lives. If the economy reopens too soon, which it feels like it is, then we are going to have more and more loss of life. Not to mention when you have states like Georgia which aren't even following the "powerpoint" that Trump's admin set up, and are just straight up reopening everything like nothing happened.

I certainly do not condone what Kemp is doing, and Georgia will reap the consequences of his actions. And I think that many other Governors have been utterly reckless with regards to what they have done-i.e. Kristi Noem in South Dakota, who is still refusing to issue a stay-at-home order, and Ron DeSantis in Florida, who dithered until it almost too late and is now starting to backtrack. I've also noted above that I think June would be an optimal time to resume economic activity. However, the situation is not the same in all states, and in some (i.e. Ohio, Washington) where the curve has flattened and where actions were taken from the beginning to address the pandemic, it may be warranted to begin opening things up earlier. And aside from Georgia, most other states that are starting to reopen are doing so with precautions in place, and in stages.

[Calthrina950]

I'm surprised that Polis decided not to extend the order, and he seems to be taking the concerns about the economy seriously enough. But then again, he has been one of the most cautious and measured out of all the Governors in terms of the actions which he has taken, and certainly more so than most other Democrats, so it shouldn't be that much of a surprise. And he is a businessman, so he can perhaps sympathize with those concerned about the bottom line.

That's the opposite of cautious.

How? Polis isn't "rushing to reopen" Colorado like Kemp appears to be doing in Georgia. This is only the first phase, and additional actions are dependent upon what transpires in that first phase. And as I said previously, there needs to be definite timetables in place for this process. We cannot expect for nothing to be done.

[Calthrina950]

I'm surprised that Polis decided not to extend the order, and he seems to be taking the concerns about the economy seriously enough. But then again, he has been one of the most cautious and measured out of all the Governors in terms of the actions which he has taken, and certainly more so than most other Democrats, so it shouldn't be that much of a surprise. And he is a businessman, so he can perhaps sympathize with those concerned about the bottom line.

That's the opposite of cautious.

How? Polis isn't "rushing to reopen" Colorado like Kemp appears to be doing in Georgia. This is only the first phase, and additional actions are dependent upon what transpires in that first phase. And as I said previously, there needs to be definite timetables in place for this process. We cannot expect for nothing to be done.

Any State with a positivity rate over 20% is in no position to reopen. That rate suggests a lack of counting, undetected growth, and a testing shortage.
Tbh it’s probably safe enough in the Western Slopes/Mountains/Far East, but the Front Range should be shutdown further.

That's probably a realistic framework, and as I mentioned above, if I were Governor, I would have extended the shutdown order into May. But again, people need to have assurance of when life will return to some sense of normalcy, and this plan is at least a step towards providing that. Nevertheless, efforts do need to be made to vastly expand our state's testing apparatus.

An aside from this, but I'm going to give an anecdote which I think you in particular will be happy to hear about. At my job today, it has now become mandatory for all employees to wear masks. I noted previously on here that many people would not wear protective gear, or take steps to protect themselves, unless if they were required to do so. Well now, thanks to Governor Polis' order, all essential employees in Colorado must wear masks. Most of my "coworkers" (to be nice to them) weren't wearing any kind of protective gear whatsoever, not even so much as gloves, before today. And many of them were complaining about having to wear masks. Their reckless disregard for the public safety is appalling to me, and I'm glad that something was done to redress it.

[Calthrina950]

Of all past epidemics/pandemics in world history, which do you all think comes as the closest analogy to what we are going through now?  

Probably somewhere between the Spanish Flu and the Asian Flu.
If I had to make a scale out of 5, Covid-19 would be in the middle.
5: Black Death/N.A Smallpox
4: Spanish Flu
3: Covid-19
2: Asian Flu/Polio
1. Swine Flu/Ebola

I don't think Ebola belongs on the same scale, as it has never caused a true pandemic, only localized epidemics (and it's ill-suited to cause one in most developed countries based on how it spreads).  Also, the gaps between these are not consistent.  The Black Death (which some believe may have actually been an Ebola-like illness) would be a 100+ if the Spanish Flu was a 4.  I think it's hard to comprehend an epidemic truly killing 1/3 to 1/2 of the population- because nothing like that has been seen since the Black Death (except smallpox in the New World).

Given what we've seen with coronavirus, I don't even want to begin to imagine how things would be playing out now if instead of coronavirus, the Black Death had returned (particularly if it were an antibiotic-resistant version or something akin). The death toll would be horrendous, and what we are seeing now would pale in comparison.

[Calthrina950]

Updated data from CDC show that more Americans over the age of 85 have died of COVID-19 than those under age 65.  The risks to young people are terribly overstated by the sensationalist media. 

While I certainly am not a fan of the media (as I've alluded to before), I also don't think we should completely discount the impact of coronavirus on younger populations, in the sense that many people seemed to downplay the effects which it could have for everyone. And it's also critical to note that younger people, as asymptomatic carriers, could put their elders in jeopardy-that is why schools were shuttered and the other social distancing measures implemented.

[Calthrina950]

It's worth noting that in that CDC link the death counts are incomplete.

The provisional counts for coronavirus disease (COVID-19) deaths are based on a current flow of mortality data in the National Vital Statistics System. National provisional counts include deaths occurring within the 50 states and the District of Columbia that have been received and coded as of the date specified. It is important to note that it can take several weeks for death records to be submitted to National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS), processed, coded, and tabulated. Therefore, the data shown on this page may be incomplete, and will likely not include all deaths that occurred during a given time period, especially for the more recent time periods. Death counts for earlier weeks are continually revised and may increase or decrease as new and updated death certificate data are received from the states by NCHS. COVID-19 death counts shown here may differ from other published sources, as data currently are lagged by an average of 1–2 weeks.

So you can't say with certainty that there's more of one type than any other. This being a representative sample (17K deaths out of 40K+) is reliant on there not being any discrepancies or differences in reporting by state/locality, place of death, etc.

Worth noting as well that several states are experiencing outbreaks in nursing homes and elderly care facilities. If you look at these numbers, the number of total deaths 75+ is 4x the number of nursing home deaths. We have no way of knowing how many 75+ year olds are in nursing homes, but when you have outbreaks in facilities dominated by old people, you're going to have a lot of mortality.

But also the dig on the media (?) is very bizarre. When did anybody ever assert this thing was nearly as deadly to young people as the elderly? I heard plenty of reporting that the exact opposite was true.

I've been mainly reading media reports discussing infants, children, and teenagers who have died from coronavirus, including people who had no underlying medical conditions. Those reports were basically aiming to address the claims of individuals who said that younger people were "invincible" in light of this pandemic.

[Calthrina950]

It's worth noting that in that CDC link the death counts are incomplete.

The provisional counts for coronavirus disease (COVID-19) deaths are based on a current flow of mortality data in the National Vital Statistics System. National provisional counts include deaths occurring within the 50 states and the District of Columbia that have been received and coded as of the date specified. It is important to note that it can take several weeks for death records to be submitted to National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS), processed, coded, and tabulated. Therefore, the data shown on this page may be incomplete, and will likely not include all deaths that occurred during a given time period, especially for the more recent time periods. Death counts for earlier weeks are continually revised and may increase or decrease as new and updated death certificate data are received from the states by NCHS. COVID-19 death counts shown here may differ from other published sources, as data currently are lagged by an average of 1–2 weeks.

So you can't say with certainty that there's more of one type than any other. This being a representative sample (17K deaths out of 40K+) is reliant on there not being any discrepancies or differences in reporting by state/locality, place of death, etc.

Worth noting as well that several states are experiencing outbreaks in nursing homes and elderly care facilities. If you look at these numbers, the number of total deaths 75+ is 4x the number of nursing home deaths. We have no way of knowing how many 75+ year olds are in nursing homes, but when you have outbreaks in facilities dominated by old people, you're going to have a lot of mortality.

But also the dig on the media (?) is very bizarre. When did anybody ever assert this thing was nearly as deadly to young people as the elderly? I heard plenty of reporting that the exact opposite was true.

I've been mainly reading media reports discussing infants, children, and teenagers who have died from coronavirus, including people who had no underlying medical conditions. Those reports were basically aiming to address the claims of individuals who said that younger people were "invincible" in light of this pandemic.

Right, it's objectively true that there's non-zero risk to people of every age. I have no idea where this claim that it was "sensationalized" for young people comes from, and why a comparison with the most vulnerable age group population is warranted at all.

This also ignores the fact that young people, if infected, can spread the virus to old people. I saw much more coverage about young healthy people as potential disease vectors than I did about young people actually dying.

I've mentioned that above. That alone provides justification for the measures that have been taken, and the warnings that have been issued. I noted on here how some of my "classmates" were mocking the virus when it was in its early stages, stating that it was nothing more than the flu. Such sentiments, hopefully, have been reduced now because of what has happened. Any strategy to deal with coronavirus must continue to educate the general public-especially younger people-on how to protect themselves, while quarantining those who are sick and promoting the most practical sanitary practices for nursing homes, assisted living facilities, etc. as possible.

[Calthrina950]

Munich has canceled this year's Oktoberfest.

Why would they do that? It's in september?

It seems like virtually every major event worldwide has been canceled or delayed at this point. This is going to be a joyless summer for many, but I recognize the necessity for these precautions.

[Calthrina950]

Hasn't it been about a week since NY instated their most stringing requirements, including mandating masks? I see that as having an effect more so than herd immunity at this point.

It depends on what you mean. In the short run, yes masks may be more immediately helpful. But in the long run, it's not enough to get the numbers down unless we completely eradicate the virus. We eventually need to either get the numbers down to effectively zero, or get herd immunity, or else the virus will keep coming back anytime we relax the quarantines at all. NYC area is probably a lot closer to herd immunity than it is to eradication, though obviously the latter is preferable.

New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and Maryland have now all mandated wearing masks in public. I wonder if any other states are going to follow suit. As I noted, Colorado required all essential employees to wear masks last Friday (though I don't think that requirement will be extended to the general public at this point, given Polis' moves towards gradually reopening the state economy). However, it seems that a solid majority of Americans have gotten used to wearing masks in public at this point, and that's a good thing.

[Calthrina950]

Giving out money would be a better answer in a country that was capable of getting a check to everyone within a couple of weeks, or that had a functioning system of unemployment insurance.

This fragile and humiliating state of affairs is the result of decades of political decisions, but no amount of political will can reverse that savage reality in time to get help to everyone who would need it during a lockdown of six months or more.

In short, everyone is afraid, no one knows exactly what to do, and the circumstances that we face are so unprecedented that projections about either the economy or the virus remain extremely uncertain (discounting hyperbolic claims such as Beet's assertion in the first COVID thread that 5% of the world's human population would die).

The rest of 2020 is going to be very uncertain, and so will the first months of 2021 until a vaccine is approved. If a second wave hits in the fall, what will be done? The past month's experience has shown that we can't afford to go on lockdown again, without risk of further damaging the economy. And how effective have the precautions we taken been? I think it's likely coronavirus will infect as many people (~60 million) as were infected by the swine flu a decade ago.

[Calthrina950]

The virus apparently causes blood clotting. In at least one young patient, the first symptom was a stroke. NY doctors are now prescribing blood thinners as standard care.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-blood/alarmed-as-covid-patients-blood-thickened-new-york-doctors-try-new-treatments-idUSKCN22421Z

How many symptoms does coronavirus have? I've heard of at least a dozen or more different, unique symptoms at this point. This seems like the mother of all viruses.

[Calthrina950]

It’s funny how everyone is attacking only GOP governors.
Jared Polis is reopening tattoo parlors and nail salons and has yet to be the target of media outrage. It’s ludicrous.

When do you think such facilities ought to reopen? I certainly agree that they shouldn't be part of "Phase 1", however you wish to define that. Mid or late May perhaps?

[Calthrina950]

Interesting opinion piece from CNN: When Denver backed off social distancing in the 1918 pandemic, the results were deadly

What is this supposed to mean? Are you suggesting that Colorado is beginning to reopen too soon?

[Calthrina950]

Las Vegas Mayor Karen Carolyn Goodman's interview with the manager Anderson Cooper goes viral for suggesting that the people in her city be a "control group" to see if the curve will rise, among other really dumb statements

Mayor Goodman seems more concerned about getting the casinos and hotels running again, then she is about the public safety or about addressing the problems of Las Vegas' massive homeless population.

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/GovMikeDeWine/status/1253122907175358464

I have been really impressed with DeWine's leadership in this crisis.

DeWine has probably had the best response of any of the Republican governors-and among the best of any of the governors-to the crisis. His decades of experience in public office have definitely been put to good use here. Such an immense contrast between him and people like DeSantis, Kemp, Noem, and the like, whose responses have been absolutely horrific. Hogan and Baker have also done a good job, particularly the former.

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1253329870790078466

This model doesn't take into account anything about how we have observed COVID-19 actually spreading thus far or environmental factors (like warmer weather, less reliance on public transit, etc.) that favor the South.  Urban areas have higher infection rates despite doing relatively more social distancing, and I don't expect that to change once things start gradually opening back up.

What are your thoughts on Georgia reopening tomorrow? Even Trump has said that he disagrees with that decision, and in my view, it is reckless. Sure, the South may have factors that work to its favor, but nothing can be taken for granted, and there should be at least some precautions in place when reopening the economy.

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1253329870790078466

This model doesn't take into account anything about how we have observed COVID-19 actually spreading thus far or environmental factors (like warmer weather, less reliance on public transit, etc.) that favor the South.  Urban areas have higher infection rates despite doing relatively more social distancing, and I don't expect that to change once things start gradually opening back up.

What are your thoughts on Georgia reopening tomorrow? Even Trump has said that he disagrees with that decision, and in my view, it is reckless. Sure, the South may have factors that work to its favor, but nothing can be taken for granted, and there should be at least some precautions in place when reopening the economy.

I think something's got to give in regards to the stay-at-home restrictions.  Georgia appears to be blazing a trail, but the relaxations are more measured then what is being reported in the media.  I don't see it as any less controlled than Colorado's phased-in reopening on April 26.  The most important aspect of Kemp's plan, IMO, is allowing hospitals to resume elective procedures (i.e., like hip replacement surgeries) with is going to help immensely with severe financial bleeding hospitals are seeing due to the cessation of most outpatient procedures. 

As I've said, I certainly don't think the restrictions should continue beyond June, and I think action does need to be taken to reopen the economy. But there are always the risks inherent with opening too early, and a majority of Americans have expressed their fear in this regard, that a hasty reopening might do more damage than if it were deferred. However, I will agree that hospitals should be allowed to resume elective procedures.