COVID-19 Megathread 5: The Trumps catch COVID-19 (user search)
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  COVID-19 Megathread 5: The Trumps catch COVID-19 (search mode)
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Author Topic: COVID-19 Megathread 5: The Trumps catch COVID-19  (Read 262200 times)
GeorgiaModerate
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« on: April 19, 2020, 05:11:35 PM »
« edited: October 02, 2020, 06:04:04 AM by Virginiá »

Old thread: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=367850.0


Before anyone asks about the huge increase in Ohio the past couple days, it's because of a huge outbreak at a prison in Marion. The prison has 2,500 inmates, and 1,300 have just been diagnosed.

That's terrible!  Have their been any who died in that population?
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #1 on: April 19, 2020, 05:11:47 PM »


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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #2 on: April 19, 2020, 08:10:58 PM »

This is an interesting but long thread (15 tweets) on the "Anti-Mask League" in San Francisco during the 1918-19 flu pandemic:



Unrolled version: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1251936242834563073.html
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #3 on: April 20, 2020, 01:19:46 PM »

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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #4 on: April 20, 2020, 03:48:43 PM »

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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #5 on: April 20, 2020, 06:42:35 PM »

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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #6 on: April 21, 2020, 02:47:32 PM »

Munich has canceled this year's Oktoberfest.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #7 on: April 21, 2020, 02:59:22 PM »


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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #8 on: April 21, 2020, 05:41:13 PM »

On the question of whether the life of an old person is worth less than a young person, here is a blog post by a sometimes outrageous but usually interesting economist: http://www.thebigquestions.com/2020/04/20/are-old-lives-worth-less/.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #9 on: April 21, 2020, 06:00:12 PM »

The US is going to set a new daily record for deaths today (at least according to the worldometers count).  The models that projected the peak to come around April 10 were clearly way off.

The peak in deaths isn't the same as a peak in new cases, and you must realize this is backlog right? It doesn't give an accurate picture into how many people are actually dying from this per day.

The cases are going to have a longer tail that many models predicted. Particularly with dumbass governors like in Georgia.

Well they haven't shown that they will. Every moment throughout the crisis, the result has been better than the projections. Almost every state, minus a handful, are seeing new case rates falling. Backlogs don't count.

I doubt that the reopening of a select amount of businesses in GA will have any real effect.

This is because people and governments have taken action designed to prevent reaching those projections!  Do you people not understand cause-and-effect?  The logic you and others keep repeating is like this:

A husband and wife are driving down the highway.  The husband is driving and going way above the speed limit.  The wife warns him to slow down or he'll get a speeding ticket.  He does so in time to avoid a speeding ticket from the motorcycle cop hiding behind a billboard, who he never sees.  They arrive at their destination and the husband says "see, I didn't need to slow down!  We could have been here a lot sooner if I'd kept up to speed."

Statistical models are a moving target that are based on certain assumptions and behaviors.  If you change any of those behaviors, then of course the results will change.  How can you follow elections and not understand this?
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #10 on: April 21, 2020, 06:02:03 PM »

It's not that old people are worth less than young people, they are just more susceptible to dying. Is it really worth it trying to shut down society to "save them" when they are at the end of their lifespan anyway? My 93 year old grandmother passed last year, and she was a great lady. Good quality life until the last few weeks. She died of something easily preventable, but it was missed during much of her hospital stay. By the time we had an idea what was wrong many of her organs were failing. I was upset about this at her death bed, upset at how the health system seemingly failed her. She told me it was ok and that she had lived a long life anyway. She didn't hold any malice towards anyone, and she passed six hours later. Maybe I've strayed a little off topic but I think this is important. Death is a part of life and we can't destroy society trying to prolong the inevitable for the chronically ill and elderly. It might sound heartless to us but when you are in their boat I think the mindset changes.

Do tell us where you'd draw the line.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #11 on: April 21, 2020, 06:06:54 PM »

It's not that old people are worth less than young people, they are just more susceptible to dying. Is it really worth it trying to shut down society to "save them" when they are at the end of their lifespan anyway? My 93 year old grandmother passed last year, and she was a great lady. Good quality life until the last few weeks. She died of something easily preventable, but it was missed during much of her hospital stay. By the time we had an idea what was wrong many of her organs were failing. I was upset about this at her death bed, upset at how the health system seemingly failed her. She told me it was ok and that she had lived a long life anyway. She didn't hold any malice towards anyone, and she passed six hours later. Maybe I've strayed a little off topic but I think this is important. Death is a part of life and we can't destroy society trying to prolong the inevitable for the chronically ill and elderly. It might sound heartless to us but when you are in their boat I think the mindset changes.

Do tell us where you'd draw the line.

I don't know. I don't want to play God, I think that's up to Him. I believe we can fight this disease with reasonable measures without going overboard.

That's what I meant.  What do you consider reasonable measures beyond which we shouldn't go?
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #12 on: April 21, 2020, 07:34:09 PM »



This is interesting.  Georgia seems like the libertarian version of Michigan in terms of handling this.  Nail salons and movie theaters are on a totally different level from parks and beaches.

Fortunately all of the major chains are shut anyway by corporate decision, and whatever does open won't have much to show. No big budget movies coming out till June and only a few for the entire summer. Everything else has been delayed.

My office has been on work-from-home since early March, and we were told today that the office would NOT reopen until the company was sure it was completely safe, even after any government restrictions were lifted.  The implication was that it will be quite a while before that happens.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #13 on: April 21, 2020, 07:47:46 PM »

Is it safe to say that the US will go past 60 thousands deaths by the end of the month?

With deaths already over 45,000 and 9 days left in the month, it certainly looks possible.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #14 on: April 21, 2020, 08:21:28 PM »

They just reduced 1,100 cases off California. So apparently it didn't have 3,000 cases today.
Alarmists BTFO

You're really getting annoying with this "alarmist" stuff.  How about just being happy that they're trying to get the count accurate?
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #15 on: April 21, 2020, 08:56:29 PM »

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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #16 on: April 22, 2020, 07:29:55 AM »


I know most people on this forum come from households earning millions a year but...

What on Earth gives you that impression?
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #17 on: April 22, 2020, 07:35:51 AM »

I know most people on this forum come from households earning millions a year but...

What on Earth gives you that impression?

I'm wondering this too.

Now I'm really curious as to what the actual distribution is.  I just started a poll in Forum Community about it: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=370186.0
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #18 on: April 22, 2020, 09:00:13 AM »

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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #19 on: April 22, 2020, 11:06:05 AM »


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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #20 on: April 22, 2020, 03:05:10 PM »

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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #21 on: April 22, 2020, 03:23:54 PM »

Interesting opinion piece from CNN: When Denver backed off social distancing in the 1918 pandemic, the results were deadly
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #22 on: April 22, 2020, 04:02:44 PM »

It’s funny how everyone is attacking only GOP governors.
Jared Polis is reopening tattoo parlors and nail salons and has yet to be the target of media outrage. It’s ludicrous.

This isn't true - Polis is reopening, but taking a phased approach. Colorado isn't going full Georgia

I have a terrible feeling that "going full Georgia" is going to become a common saying in a not-good way.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #23 on: April 22, 2020, 04:55:33 PM »


Actually, I was thinking of my own state's current situation, not Colorado's.  But it's a useful cautionary tale for any jurisdiction.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #24 on: April 22, 2020, 09:23:40 PM »



This is the study that found no benefit in treatment but an increase in deaths among those given it.
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