COVID-19 Megathread 5: The Trumps catch COVID-19

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Before anyone asks about the huge increase in Ohio the past couple days, it's because of a huge outbreak at a prison in Marion. The prison has 2,500 inmates, and 1,300 have just been diagnosed.

That's terrible!  Have their been any who died in that population?

I don't think any prisoners died, but I think a guard did.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

I use the average of the Corona Scanner and Worldometers numbers, and today was the lowest number of new cases in the U.S. since those horrid times way back on March 31.

Incidentally, the peak was April 9. No other day is close.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

I have a question for you. How has the situation proceeded in Kentucky thus far? I haven't heard much about that state's outbreak in recent weeks.

Right now, Kentucky is dealing with a backlog of cases, but the overall number of cases is pretty low. Kentucky has begun to periodically offer drive-up testing sites.

And Kentucky really does have a "soft lockdown." Kentucky might not be that militant about it, but it really is a lockdown even if they never call it that. People are outdoors a lot, but they're very meticulous about the 6-foot distance (as they should be). The real problem is that the lockdown has completely shattered our society. For a month, I've literally had an unrelenting pain in my heart about this.

People can't tolerate much more.

Last I checked, my county had 54 cases among 90,000 people.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

I see. How would you rate Beshear's response? I've given some praise to it before, but I've heard things about "restrictions on church services" or something to the effect. How are people in your state viewing his response? Here in Colorado, the response to Polis' measures is shaping up along partisan lines, as Republicans are becoming increasingly critical of them, and have resumed with their prior denunciations of his record.

Beshear is maybe slightly better than 49 other governors, but most of the other governors are absolutely terrible.

Most people say he has a good response, but I think it's because he's tried to act calm and gentle at his press conferences instead of going off the rails. Almost all churches have suspended services anyway, and a few have drive-in services.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

I see. Which governors do you think have had the best response? You seem to be one of the few left-leaning posters on here who has expressed real and genuine concern about the expansion of governmental authority in this time of crisis, at least elevating it above the other considerations attached with the pandemic.

Beshear may very well be the best.

I'm not really against stepping up some government regulations during a pandemic, but the complete lockdowns are unrealistic and are doing real damage to social institutions. I've read several articles that said lockdowns have led to suicides and domestic violence.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

I'm curious, given the history of adversarial governments using social media to organize protests in 2016, if there might be a third-party actor involved in these pro-COVID demonstrations that we're not seeing.

I was about to say the exact same thing.

Lockdowns must end, and will end. But these "protests" just bog down the process.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Also, why did these "protests" wait until a lot of these states were about to reopen anyway?

[Bandit3 the Worker]

How are today's numbers looking?

New York dropped by a huge amount. New Jersey dropped some. Indiana and Virginia dropped quite a bit. Ohio dropped some. Some smaller states gained, but usually not by much.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

I notice a lot of people confuse lockdowns with business closures. Lockdowns are much, much more severe.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

As a person who checks the case numbers for almost every state every single day, we could see an end to this by mid may in most states.

Case numbers will be far, far less than now (certainly not 5 digits), but not zero.

Pandemics have a beginning, middle, and end. The downslope will be pretty slow compared to the upslope. It'll be down to almost zero someday, but it'll be a long, long time.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Does anyone else suspect we are probably overall improving now, but we'll regress now that restrictions are easing?

At this point, we're going to keep improving.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

I'm just worried there won't be enough contact tracing. Contact tracing has been around since 1774 (long before telephones), yet for some reason, some places apparently haven't been doing it.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Today is turning out to be the deadliest day of the pandemic so far in the U.S at 2,800 deaths

 This would mean that the projected peak of April 15th was wrong. I am less optimistic this week from what I've seen than I was last week.

Apparently there was a backlog of really old cases in California.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

They just reduced 1,100 cases off California. So apparently it didn't have 3,000 cases today.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

If nothing else, we'll start producing hazmat suits and people will start wearing them at all times when outside their homes. We'll be like the Quarians from Mass Effect. I know this seems ridiculous, but humans are flipping ingenious and will likely figure out something much better than what I've laid out here.

That might be better than what we have now, but we'll have to think of something much better.

I'm tired of thinking every object or building outside my apartment is contaminated.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

I thought the reason for the new cases was expanded testing.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

That escalated quickly.

Because of this, those "protests" deserve to lose all the support they ever had.

Anti-freedom racism like that doesn't belong at a rally that claims to stand for freedom.

Montana and Colorado are trying to reopen responsibly after the ongoing disaster. Garbage like this really sets the effort back.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

It wasnt a backlog

After it went from 707 to 1,072 in just a day?

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Is there any hope that plasma will be a treatment?

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Before anyone frets too much about the numbers today from Massachusetts:

https://www.nbcboston.com/news/coronavirus/another-178-coronavirus-deaths-reported-in-massachusetts-and-3079-more-cases/2112737

Massachusetts just tested twice as many people as they ever have before. That's how they got such a big number today.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

There are places where the curve is gradually going down and places where it isn’t.  The troubling thing is that there is no evidence to me that the lockdowns themselves are causing the curves to go down in those places.  These tend to be the places that were already hardest hit, where the decline could purely be attributable to progress toward herd immunity. (I.e. If the curve has declined 25% in NYC, that could just be because 25% of NYC residents were already infected and are now immune.)

The lockdowns have been in place for weeks, and all we have to show for it is tens of thousands of deaths.

I think we can say at this point the lockdowns are a failure.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

I'm not sure if anyone noticed, but it was astonishing to me, in watching the news coverage of the vote on the coronavirus bill yesterday, to see members of Congress and their staff wearing masks. Even with mask-wearing, though, this country's partisan divides are obvious. Virtually all Democrats were wearing masks, while many Republicans-such as McCarthy, Scalise, Gohmert, and Jordan-were not doing so. Democratic Rep. Jim McGovern actually criticized Republicans for not adhering to CDC guidelines, since Congress is supposed to set an example for the rest of the country by doing so. I've seen anti-mask sentiments expressed by many on the right on comment boards. Some even believe that masks and gloves are meant as a control mechanism to subdue Americans, and that they are a tool of the left. Hence, they refuse to wear them.

The WHO guidelines actually recommend against masks.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Increasing case numbers are a good thing right now, because they indicate increased testing.  We’re still probably only catching maybe 10% of the actual cases that are out there.

Testing is way up:

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/full-list-covid-19-tests-per-day?time=2020-03-08..&country=USA

I'm absolutely certain the prevalence of this virus in the U.S. is far lower than it was 3 weeks ago. Testing has gotten so much better.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Expanding upon masks, it looks like Delaware is now the latest state to require its residents to wear masks in public: https://www.fox29.com/news/delaware-residents-employees-ordered-to-wear-masks-in-public-starting-tuesday. Like Colorado, it has also mandated mask-wearing for essential employees. One commonality I notice is that all states which have made mask-wearing mandatory in some form have Democratic governors. Is this an indicator of how seriously they are taking things, compared to Republicans? Or what else?

I hate it when news outlets say "in public." That implies every public park or roadway - instead of just buses and retail stores.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

The article itself says "in public spaces." So that means grocery stores, pharmacies, convenience stores, doctor's offices, and public transportation. And businesses are required to turn away customers not wearing a mask. While I think mask advisories are acceptable, I'm leery of state efforts to mandate them. What is your opinion of it? How widespread is it in Kentucky?

Around here, about 1 in 20 people wear masks. I don't like the efforts to mandate them, simply because it defies the WHO's advice. I don't think it's even realistic for people to wear masks outdoors anyway, especially if they're over 6 feet from other people.

I don't even have one. I think I'll be able to get a bandana though, but any building that requires one is probably one where I shouldn't be unless it's absolutely necessary.