COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

The CDC and the public health profession in this country has been absolutely captured by wokeness, thus we have recommendation for essential workers to receive the vaccine before the elderly, due to racial demographics.

https://twitter.com/JCompson_III/status/1339816443668553728?s=20

https://twitter.com/surplustakes/status/1339574645180289026?s=20


never mind the risks that COVID pose to black and brown elderly, many of them having health conditions like diabetes

https://twitter.com/dbaten3/status/1339936163797331969?s=20

Why does this tweet link to a photo of the headline of the article rather than the actual article?  That seems very disingenuous.

In any case, we probably shouldn't be trying to reduce total deaths, but rather years of life lost.
In the case of the average person, this would still tilt toward vaccinating the elderly first because of their death rate is exponentially higher than the that of young people (i.e. a 10% chance of saving 10 years of life is better than a 1% chance of saving 30 years of life).

But we also need to consider that the average elderly person comes in contact with a lot fewer other people than essential workers, so the essential worker also has both a higher chance of catching the virus and a higher chance of spreading it to others once infected.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Here's a link to the article since it isn't in the tweet:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/05/health/covid-vaccine-first.html

The racial aspect seems like a very small portion of this decision.
But having read the article, it seems like they are classifying way too many people as essential workers.  Essential workers should just be people who are interacting with large numbers of members of the public on a regular basis.   Under this definition, I think they should vaccinate essential workers first.

But really we should just be prioritizing vaccinating as many people as possible as soon as possible, and this means just giving people ONE DOSE until the vaccine is widely available to everyone.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Yesterday I went in for a dental checkup.  Talking to the hygienist about life during the pandemic, I said that next time she saw me (6 months from now) hopefully life would be back to near-normal, since most people would be vaccinated.  That got us talking about vaccines, and she told me that the people in their practice wouldn't get any priority because the CDC had decided that dental workers are not "essential".  I can see dental workers being a lower priority than many types of medical workers, but it seems wrong that they shouldn't get any priority consideration at all.

[ilikeverin]

That's going to be something that depends on the state. I can't remember which ones, but I've certainly seen states specifically include dentists in essentially the next wave of vaccinations.

[jamestroll]

No the elderly should get the vaccine first. Focusing on vaccinating the elderly is key to opening up the economy.

Most service workers are not elderly. Their fatality rate is low and if they get the virus they just have to go through with it and afterwards move on.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Teachers should be a high priority.

[jamestroll]

Best strategy at this point is to vaccinate the elderly population and that young and healthy people should now not wear masks and throw covid parties and deliberately get infected. That would be the fastest way to achieve an end to this pandemic.

[T'Chenka]

Best strategy at this point is to vaccinate the elderly population and that young and healthy people should now not wear masks and throw covid parties and deliberately get infected. That would be the fastest way to achieve an end to this pandemic.

This ain't it, chief.

[jamestroll]

Best strategy at this point is to vaccinate the elderly population and that young and healthy people should now not wear masks and throw covid parties and deliberately get infected. That would be the fastest way to achieve an end to this pandemic.

This ain't it, chief.

You at least agree that elderly and vulnerable should be vaccinated prior to essential workers right?

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Best strategy at this point is to vaccinate the elderly population and that young and healthy people should now not wear masks and throw covid parties and deliberately get infected. That would be the fastest way to achieve an end to this pandemic.

This ain't it, chief.

You at least agree that elderly and vulnerable should be vaccinated prior to essential workers right?

They should all be in the most high-priority group, since the essential workers will be the ones most exposed and the ones who have the potential to infect the most people.

Really, it seems like the smartest thing we can do now that the Moderna vaccine has been approved is potentially to switch it from two doses to one right now. If it's true that the vaccine's first dose has a 92% effectiveness rate, then it might be the quickest path to herd immunity by cutting the wait time in half. Do research into the effectiveness of a second dose six months later as a booster, but we can't wait for everyone to get their two doses if the difference is 3%.

[jimrtex]

Certainly there has to be a trade-off between saving the most lives and saving the most years of life. 

The fatality rate of this virus grows so exponentially with age that I think in general it is better to vaccinate older people first. 

But I’m not sure about the wisdom of giving first priority to those in nursing homes given that the average nursing home resident dies within six months of entering the home anyway.  There’s a huge difference in my mind between an otherwise health 70-year old with a life expectancy of 15-20 years and a long-term care resident with a life expectancy of a few months.

Would you let someone you know move to a nursing home, right now?

Though the median is just under 6 months, the average (mean) is 13 months. Given half are staying say 4 months, the other half must be averaging 22 months.

Anyhow 1.3 million in nursing homes with around 1.0 million staff. 40 million Pfizer doses in December = 20 million persons immunized. So we are talking around 11.5% of the total.

If you can get all the employees and patients immunized, you can immunize new patients and potential visitors.

[jimrtex]

AYY LMAO
https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1339701188086906882

The actual ruling applied to restaurants offering eat-in dining in general, saying that the state failed to demonstrate a risk factor.

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 12/18 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

ΔW Change: Comparisons of Weekly Day-to-day Growth or Decline of COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Comparing the numbers to the same day of last week, are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

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12/6: <Sunday>

• Cases: 15,159,259 (+175,834 | ΔW Change: ↑25.55% | Σ Increase: ↑1.17%)
• Deaths: 288,906 (+1,081 | ΔW Change: ↑32.15% | Σ Increase: ↑0.38%)

12/7: <M>

• Cases: 15,369,046 (+209,787 | ΔW Change: ↑23.79% | Σ Increase: ↑1.38%)
• Deaths: 290,443 (+1,537 | ΔW Change: ↑21.98% | Σ Increase: ↑0.53%)

12/8: <T>

• Cases: 15,591,709 (+222,663 | ΔW Change: ↑18.05% | Σ Increase: ↑1.45%)
• Deaths: 293,398 (+2,955 | ΔW Change: ↑11.76% | Σ Increase: ↑1.02%)

12/9: <W>

• Cases: 15,820,042 (+228,333 | ΔW Change: ↑11.14% | Σ Increase: ↑1.46%)
• Deaths: 296,698 (+3,300 | ΔW Change: ↑14.23% | Σ Increase: ↑1.12%)

12/10: <Þ>

• Cases: 16,039,393 (+219,351 | ΔW Change: ↓0.86% | Σ Increase: ↑1.39%)
• Deaths: 299,692 (+2,994 | ΔW Change: ↑1.01% | Σ Increase: ↑1.01%)

12/11: <F>

• Cases: 16,295,458 (+256,065 | ΔW Change: ↑7.97% | Σ Increase: ↑1.60%)
• Deaths: 302,750 (+3,058 | ΔW Change: ↑12.39% | Σ Increase: ↑1.02%)

12/12: <S>

• Cases: 16,549,366 (+253,908 | ΔW Change: ↑20.29% | Σ Increase: ↑1.56%)
• Deaths: 305,082 (+2,332 | ΔW Change: ↑2.51% | Σ Increase: ↑0.77%)

12/13: <Sunday>

• Cases: 16,737,267 (+187,901 | ΔW Change: ↑6.86% | Σ Increase: ↑1.14%)
• Deaths: 306,459 (+1,377 | ΔW Change: ↑27.38% | Σ Increase: ↑0.45%)

12/14: <M>

• Cases: 16,942,822 (+205,555 | ΔW Change: ↓2.02% | Σ Increase: ↑1.23%)
• Deaths: 308,089 (+1,630 | ΔW Change: ↑6.05% | Σ Increase: ↑0.53%)

12/15: <T>

• Cases: 17,143,942 (+201,120 | ΔW Change: ↓9.68% | Σ Increase: ↑1.19%)
• Deaths: 311,073 (+2,984 | ΔW Change: ↑0.98% | Σ Increase: ↑0.97%)

12/16: <W>

• Cases: 17,392,618 (+248,676 | ΔW Change: ↑8.91% | Σ Increase: ↑1.45%)
• Deaths: 314,577 (+3,504 | ΔW Change: ↑6.18% | Σ Increase: ↑1.13%)

12/17 (Yesterday): <Þ>

• Cases: 17,626,770 (+234,152 | ΔW Change: ↑6.75% | Σ Increase: ↑1.35%)
• Deaths: 317,928 (+3,351 | ΔW Change: ↑11.92% | Σ Increase: ↑1.07%)

12/18 (Today): <F>

• Cases: 17,888,353 (+261,583 | ΔW Change: ↑2.15% | Σ Increase: ↑1.48%)
• Deaths: 320,845 (+2,917 | ΔW Change: ↓4.61% | Σ Increase: ↑0.92%)

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

https://twitter.com/joshtpm/status/1340109457867624449

[emailking]

Best strategy at this point is to vaccinate the elderly population and that young and healthy people should now not wear masks and throw covid parties and deliberately get infected. That would be the fastest way to achieve an end to this pandemic.

This ain't it, chief.

You at least agree that elderly and vulnerable should be vaccinated prior to essential workers right?

They should all be in the most high-priority group, since the essential workers will be the ones most exposed and the ones who have the potential to infect the most people.

Really, it seems like the smartest thing we can do now that the Moderna vaccine has been approved is potentially to switch it from two doses to one right now. If it's true that the vaccine's first dose has a 92% effectiveness rate, then it might be the quickest path to herd immunity by cutting the wait time in half. Do research into the effectiveness of a second dose six months later as a booster, but we can't wait for everyone to get their two doses if the difference is 3%.

Wouldn't it be better to use both? That way we can vaccinate more people more quickly, even if one of the vaccines isn't as good.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Best strategy at this point is to vaccinate the elderly population and that young and healthy people should now not wear masks and throw covid parties and deliberately get infected. That would be the fastest way to achieve an end to this pandemic.

This is a great plan if your goal is to make sure that a bunch of people who are currently young and healthy end up with permanent lung damage.

I do not understand this widespread view that somehow all COVID cases fall into two categories, either death or complete recovery. It's not that simple.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Best strategy at this point is to vaccinate the elderly population and that young and healthy people should now not wear masks and throw covid parties and deliberately get infected. That would be the fastest way to achieve an end to this pandemic.

This ain't it, chief.

You at least agree that elderly and vulnerable should be vaccinated prior to essential workers right?

They should all be in the most high-priority group, since the essential workers will be the ones most exposed and the ones who have the potential to infect the most people.

Really, it seems like the smartest thing we can do now that the Moderna vaccine has been approved is potentially to switch it from two doses to one right now. If it's true that the vaccine's first dose has a 92% effectiveness rate, then it might be the quickest path to herd immunity by cutting the wait time in half. Do research into the effectiveness of a second dose six months later as a booster, but we can't wait for everyone to get their two doses if the difference is 3%.

Wouldn't it be better to use both? That way we can vaccinate more people more quickly, even if one of the vaccines isn't as good.

Yeah, I'm not advocating scrapping the Pfizer vaccine, but if Moderna is essentially functional with one dose, that gives it a huge leg up over Pfizer which seems to genuinely require two doses.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Best strategy at this point is to vaccinate the elderly population and that young and healthy people should now not wear masks and throw covid parties and deliberately get infected. That would be the fastest way to achieve an end to this pandemic.

This ain't it, chief.

You at least agree that elderly and vulnerable should be vaccinated prior to essential workers right?

They should all be in the most high-priority group, since the essential workers will be the ones most exposed and the ones who have the potential to infect the most people.

Really, it seems like the smartest thing we can do now that the Moderna vaccine has been approved is potentially to switch it from two doses to one right now. If it's true that the vaccine's first dose has a 92% effectiveness rate, then it might be the quickest path to herd immunity by cutting the wait time in half. Do research into the effectiveness of a second dose six months later as a booster, but we can't wait for everyone to get their two doses if the difference is 3%.

Wouldn't it be better to use both? That way we can vaccinate more people more quickly, even if one of the vaccines isn't as good.

Yeah, I'm not advocating scrapping the Pfizer vaccine, but if Moderna is essentially functional with one dose, that gives it a huge leg up over Pfizer which seems to genuinely require two doses.

I will be talking all three if I get the chance.

Can't wait.

[emailking]

I will be talking all three if I get the chance.

Can't wait.

Is that safe?

[Holmes]

I will be talking all three if I get the chance.

Can't wait.

Is that safe?

It’s probably fine but pointless. Considering how strict and difficult it will be to get a vaccine, I doubt the administrators will allow it though.

[It’s so Joever]

Best strategy at this point is to vaccinate the elderly population and that young and healthy people should now not wear masks and throw covid parties and deliberately get infected. That would be the fastest way to achieve an end to this pandemic.

This is a great plan if your goal is to make sure that a bunch of people who are currently young and healthy end up with permanent lung damage.

I do not understand this widespread view that somehow all COVID cases fall into two categories, either death or complete recovery. It's not that simple.

People such as Jimmie are simple minded and don’t think about these things. Unfortunately people like Jimmie are the ones running school districts, cities, police stations, and entire states.

[Pericles]

I'm pleasantly surprised at how New York has managed to control its second wave. I thought the case numbers would continue soaring exponentially way past the first wave peak, like has happened in many European countries. Instead, they have held it at around 10,000 daily cases since the beginning of the month. Since testing is so much higher, the second wave should be much less deadly. Maybe the peak will still come, it is still rising slightly, but maybe they have actually responded pretty well (or are for some reason much luckier than Europe when they weren't in the first wave?).

[ilikeverin]

I think it's far enough after Thanksgiving that we can say that we didn't get the doomsday that many folks predicted from the Thanksgiving holiday. Eyeballing the NYT trendlines, I'm seeing unmitigated spikes in a couple of places: Northern New England, and the broader Sunbelt (TN, CA, AZ, SC, GA, NC, etc.). Very happy to see the downward trend here in Erie County

[emailking]

I think it prolonged the spike. 2500-3500 deaths a day is pretty bad. Not sure anyone was saying it would be much worse than that.

[politicallefty]

I think it's far enough after Thanksgiving that we can say that we didn't get the doomsday that many folks predicted from the Thanksgiving holiday. Eyeballing the NYT trendlines, I'm seeing unmitigated spikes in a couple of places: Northern New England, and the broader Sunbelt (TN, CA, AZ, SC, GA, NC, etc.). Very happy to see the downward trend here in Erie County

I don't think we can say that at all. Things are worse than ever and I'm sure Thanksgiving made things worse. I'm very concerned about the numbers we're going to see as a result of Christmas and that's something we're likely to see across the entirety of the Western world (unlike Thanksgiving a few weeks ago, which is just here in the US). I also wouldn't be surprised if shopping and being out in stores and whatnot right now is helping to drive up numbers, especially in areas that are more lax on restrictions (particularly restaurants). I don't know about most people, but a lot of people I know traditionally eat out a lot when they're doing Christmas shopping.