COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron

[It’s so Joever]

I don’t really see why life can’t return to close-to-normal once the majority of the vulnerable population has been vaccinated by February.  I mean, wearing masks im confined spaces is fine, but certainly nothing should be closed.  The virus is not enough of a threat to young and healthy people alone to merit that sort of disruption to our daily lives.

COVID-19 (coronavirus): Long-term effects

COVID-19 symptoms can sometimes persist for months. The virus can damage the lungs, heart and brain, which increases the risk of long-term health problems.

Older people and people with many serious medical conditions are the most likely to experience lingering COVID-19 symptoms, but even young, otherwise healthy people can feel unwell for weeks to months after infection

There’s no doubt that the virus -can- cause long-term damage tp health in young people.

But the relevant question is whether the likelihood and seriousness of that damage is so debilitating to our health care system and society as a whole to merit an unprecedented disruption in our daily lives, a disruption which has led to long term economic devastation for a millions and likely permanent damage to the education of an entire generation of children.

I have seen no evidence that the answer to this question should be yes.

I would agree with that...if we had universal healthcare so that the people forced back into an unsafe environment aren’t also developing crippling debt because of their medical bills.
The fact is, our lack of a strong social safety net is going to make Covid long term effects a double whammy. Both to the organs, and to the wallet.

[Virginiá]

https://twitter.com/TimAlberta/status/1338246411675119618

I think the issue here is less govt officials getting vaccine first = bad and more that the people Trump has surrounded himself with are so sleazy that it offends the senses to read that this group of political rejects and perennial grifters are getting the vaccines first just because they hitched a ride to the right traveling circus at the right time.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

I hope people dont let their guard down for the next couple of months as it's unlikely the average person will be able to get a vaccine until sometime from April to July

[Calthrina950]

I hope people dont let their guard down for the next couple of months as it's unlikely the average person will be able to get a vaccine until sometime from April to July

That it is the estimate which I provided earlier, but some on here are confident that the vaccine will be widely disseminated before that.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

https://twitter.com/TimAlberta/status/1338246411675119618

I think the issue here is less govt officials getting vaccine first = bad and more that the people Trump has surrounded himself with are so sleazy that it offends the senses to read that this group of political rejects and perennial grifters are getting the vaccines first just because they hitched a ride to the right traveling circus at the right time.

Given the depraved indifference of Trump, his family, and his lackeys and grifters, vaccinating them will save hundreds, if not thousands, of lives. (They should, of course, still face criminal charges for said depraved indifference.)

[emailking]

I hope people dont let their guard down for the next couple of months as it's unlikely the average person will be able to get a vaccine until sometime from April to July

That it is the estimate which I provided earlier, but some on here are confident that the vaccine will be widely disseminated before that.

That's what I keep hearing on TV. Also I heard the at risk category is maybe 200 million people? I don't know but regardless that's why I'm skeptical that we're getting back to normal in March, even if deaths have dropped significantly and the most vulnerable have been vaccinated.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Trump shouldn’t need the vaccine right now because he already had the virus.  But in general, I do believe essential government officials should get it immediately.  At the very least anyone who has Secret Service protections.

[emailking]

Are people who have had the virus supposed to get a vaccine at all? Like even when there's plenty to go around?

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I hope people dont let their guard down for the next couple of months as it's unlikely the average person will be able to get a vaccine until sometime from April to July

I think every adult who wants the vaccine will be able to get it by May.
The numbers I’ve heard are 20 million people vaccinated this month, then 30 million per month going forward.
That gets you to 170 million people by May, or ~half the US population.

Given that about 1/4 of the population are children who don’t qualify, and 1/3 of adults won’t want to get the vaccine, 170 million should cover every adult who wants it.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Are people who have had the virus supposed to get a vaccine at all? Like even when there's plenty to go around?

My impression is that they will be able to get it just as easily as those who haven’t had the virus.
And they certainly should get it once it is easily available.
But I think we should have a national policy of discouraging people who already had the virus from getting it immediately while it is still in short supply.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Are people who have had the virus supposed to get a vaccine at all? Like even when there's plenty to go around?

My impression is that they will be able to get it just as easily as those who haven’t had the virus.
And they certainly should get it once it is easily available.
But I think we should have a national policy of discouraging people who already had the virus from getting it immediately while it is still in short supply.

FWIW, one of my wife's relatives has had COVID twice, both times confirmed by test and with symptoms. They were 7 or 8 months apart. So either there are multiple strains or immunity fades (the first case was pretty mild, the second more severe).

[emailking]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1338325735778476035

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 12/13 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

ΔW Change: Comparisons of Weekly Day-to-day Growth or Decline of COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Comparing the numbers to the same day of last week, are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

Older Numbers (Hidden in spoiler mode to make the post more compact)

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

<Last Numbers for 3/26-3/28 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 3/29-4/4 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/5-4/11 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/12-4/18 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/19-4/25 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 4/26-5/2 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 5/3-5/9 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 5/10-5/16 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 5/17-5/23 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 5/24-5/30 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 5/31-6/6 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 6/7-6/13 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 6/14-6/20 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 6/21-6/27 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 6/28-7/4 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 7/5-7/11 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 7/12-7/18 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 7/19-7/25 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 7/26-8/1 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 8/2-8/8 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 8/9-8/15 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 8/16-8/22 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 8/23-8/29 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 8/30-9/5 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 9/6-9/12 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 9/13-9/19 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 9/20-9/26 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 9/27-10/3 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 10/4-10/10 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 10/11-10/17 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 10/18-10/24 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 10/25-10/31 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 11/1-11/7 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 11/8-11/14 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 11/15-11/21 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 11/22-11/28 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 11/29-12/5 in this Post>

12/6: <Sunday>

• Cases: 15,159,259 (+175,834 | ΔW Change: ↑25.55% | Σ Increase: ↑1.17%)
• Deaths: 288,906 (+1,081 | ΔW Change: ↑32.15% | Σ Increase: ↑0.38%)

12/7: <M>

• Cases: 15,369,046 (+209,787 | ΔW Change: ↑23.79% | Σ Increase: ↑1.38%)
• Deaths: 290,443 (+1,537 | ΔW Change: ↑21.98% | Σ Increase: ↑0.53%)

12/8: <T>

• Cases: 15,591,709 (+222,663 | ΔW Change: ↑18.05% | Σ Increase: ↑1.45%)
• Deaths: 293,398 (+2,955 | ΔW Change: ↑11.76% | Σ Increase: ↑1.02%)

12/9: <W>

• Cases: 15,820,042 (+228,333 | ΔW Change: ↑11.14% | Σ Increase: ↑1.46%)
• Deaths: 296,698 (+3,300 | ΔW Change: ↑14.23% | Σ Increase: ↑1.12%)

12/10: <Þ>

• Cases: 16,039,393 (+219,351 | ΔW Change: ↓0.86% | Σ Increase: ↑1.39%)
• Deaths: 299,692 (+2,994 | ΔW Change: ↑1.01% | Σ Increase: ↑1.01%)

12/11: <F>

• Cases: 16,295,458 (+256,065 | ΔW Change: ↑7.97% | Σ Increase: ↑1.60%)
• Deaths: 302,750 (+3,058 | ΔW Change: ↑12.39% | Σ Increase: ↑1.02%)

12/12 (Yesterday): <S>

• Cases: 16,549,366 (+253,908 | ΔW Change: ↑20.29% | Σ Increase: ↑1.56%)
• Deaths: 305,082 (+2,332 | ΔW Change: ↑2.51% | Σ Increase: ↑0.77%)

12/13 (Today): <Sunday>

• Cases: 16,737,267 (+187,901 | ΔW Change: ↑6.86% | Σ Increase: ↑1.14%)
• Deaths: 306,459 (+1,377 | ΔW Change: ↑27.38% | Σ Increase: ↑0.45%)

[jimrtex]

William Shakespeare has been vaccinated.

This seems like a good thing to me. The guy is literally hundreds of years old by this point, so he should be one of the most vulnerable to the virus in the world. So it is good to see he is being prioritized to get one of the first vaccine doses.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-55233021

https://twitter.com/BBCHughPym/status/1336210741892968449

All the world’s a stage,
And all the men and women merely players;
They have their exits and their entrances;
And one man in his time plays many parts,

...

And whistles in his sound. Last scene of all,
That ends this strange eventful history,
Is second childishness and mere oblivion;
Sans teeth, sans eyes, sans taste, sans everything.

[jimrtex]

Yeah, I don't really see why we should be holding vaccines back for second doses.  The data shows that just getting the first dose is just over 50% effective by itself, and a lot of people who get the first dose won't get the second dose regardless, so from an efficiency standpoint, it seems like we should be using the vaccines we have as quickly as we can use them.

I wonder if it is really an either/or situation.

It's not like could administer 40 million dose on Day 1. It sounds like they anticipate having 40 million doses by December 31.

By say 10 days, they will have a better idea of what will be available in early January, and can start releasing more first doses.

So let's say that by the December 31, they have 40 million doses + another 30 million in the next 21 days. (40+30)/2 = 35 million first doses.

[DINGO Joe]

Charley Pride, country music's first black superstar, has died of COVID-19 complications at age 86.  I well remember his songs on the radio when I was growing up.  A great talent.

Died a month after accepting a lifetime achievement award at the CMAs, which were a notorious COVID sh**tshow.

[emailking]

Fauci just said on MSNBC that he expects every adult who wants a vaccine will have it by the end of the 2nd quarter of 2021. But when asked about getting back to normal, he said that a vaccine is a complement not a substitute for COVID public health measures, and that it may be in the 2nd half of 2021 or longer before the level of infection is low enough that things can get back to what they were before.  🤷‍♂️

[Calthrina950]

Fauci just said on MSNBC that he expects every adult who wants a vaccine will have it by the end of the 2nd quarter of 2021. But when asked about getting back to normal, he said that a vaccine is a complement not a substitute for COVID public health measures, and that it may be in the 2nd half of 2021 or longer before the level of infection is low enough that things can get back to what they were before.  🤷‍♂️

As I've said, I wouldn't be surprised if mask mandates were still in force a year from now. Hopefully, they won't continue into 2022.

[GP270watch]

New strain of Covid-19 identified in southern England as tougher restrictions imposed in London

The Health Secretary said there was nothing to suggest the variant was more likely to cause serious disease and he suggested the vaccine should still be effective.


This is why the "let Covid run wild through the population is dumb". Nobody knows exactly what we're dealing with.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Are people who have had the virus supposed to get a vaccine at all? Like even when there's plenty to go around?

My impression is that they will be able to get it just as easily as those who haven’t had the virus.
And they certainly should get it once it is easily available.
But I think we should have a national policy of discouraging people who already had the virus from getting it immediately while it is still in short supply.

FWIW, one of my wife's relatives has had COVID twice, both times confirmed by test and with symptoms. They were 7 or 8 months apart. So either there are multiple strains or immunity fades (the first case was pretty mild, the second more severe).

Or one was a false positive test?  There have been a few confirmed cases of reinfection, but if it were actually anything but extraordinarily rare, we'd be seeing thousands of such cases every day.

Using a vaccine on someone who has already had the virus is 99% likely to be a wasted vaccine.  And while the vaccine is scarce, we cannot afford this sort of waste.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Fauci just said on MSNBC that he expects every adult who wants a vaccine will have it by the end of the 2nd quarter of 2021. But when asked about getting back to normal, he said that a vaccine is a complement not a substitute for COVID public health measures, and that it may be in the 2nd half of 2021 or longer before the level of infection is low enough that things can get back to what they were before.  🤷‍♂️

They should come out with a new version of the TV show 'That's Incredible!' and call it 'That's Ridiculous!' Nobody is going to wait until the second half of 2021 - or even close.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Fauci just said on MSNBC that he expects every adult who wants a vaccine will have it by the end of the 2nd quarter of 2021. But when asked about getting back to normal, he said that a vaccine is a complement not a substitute for COVID public health measures, and that it may be in the 2nd half of 2021 or longer before the level of infection is low enough that things can get back to what they were before.  🤷‍♂️

This messaging seems really bad to me.  If getting the vaccine is only a "complement" to all the other restrictions and inconveniences that the pandemic has brought, how are you going to convince the people to get the vaccine?

We need to emphasize that the vaccine is the only solution at this point.  Until you take it, you need to keep wearing a mask and socially distancing, etc.  But once you have taken it (at least the second dose), you are free to resume life as normal.  That's the only message that is going to get close to universal adoption.

[GP270watch]

 They should pay people to take the vaccine, it's really the best and speediest solution.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/laurenpeikoff/status/1338510409523990533

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Of course Fauci will be saying that. He only cares about his spotlight now that he has been given his 15 seconds of fame he doesn't want to lose it. Fauci has always been saying we need to do ____ to end the pandemic and then not long after say that isn't enough and the pandemic will continue. If Fauci wants his way we will never return to normal.