COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 11/25 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

ΔW Change: Comparisons of Weekly Day-to-day Growth or Decline of COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Comparing the numbers to the same day of last week, are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

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11/15: <Sunday>

• Cases: 11,366,379 (+140,341 | ΔW Change: ↑32.82% | Σ Increase: ↑1.25%)
• Deaths: 251,832 (+576 | ΔW Change: ↑12.72% | Σ Increase: ↑0.23%)

11/16: <M>

• Cases: 11,538,057 (+171,678 | ΔW Change: ↑28.62% | Σ Increase: ↑1.51%)
• Deaths: 252,651 (+819 | ΔW Change: ↑20.44% | Σ Increase: ↑0.33%)

11/17: <T>

• Cases: 11,695,550 (+157,493 | ΔW Change: ↑14.77% | Σ Increase: ↑1.36%)
• Deaths: 254,253 (+1,602 | ΔW Change: ↑18.58% | Σ Increase: ↑0.63%)

11/18: <W>

• Cases: 11,873,727 (+178,177 | ΔW Change: ↑19.15% | Σ Increase: ↑1.52%)
• Deaths: 256,254 (+2,001 | ΔW Change: ↑25.14% | Σ Increase: ↑0.79%)

11/19: <Þ>

• Cases: 12,068,003 (+194,276 | ΔW Change: ↑17.59% | Σ Increase: ↑1.64%)
• Deaths: 258,302 (+2,048 | ΔW Change: ↑72.54% | Σ Increase: ↑0.80%)

11/20: <F>

• Cases: 12,274,726 (+206,723 | ΔW Change: ↑8.56% | Σ Increase: ↑1.71%)
• Deaths: 260,283 (+1,981 | ΔW Change: ↑42.52% | Σ Increase: ↑0.77%)

11/21: <S>

• Cases: 12,450,666 (+175,940 | ΔW Change: ↑8.82% | Σ Increase: ↑1.43%)
• Deaths: 261,790 (+1,507 | ΔW Change: ↑17.64% | Σ Increase: ↑0.58%)

11/22: <Sunday>

• Cases: 12,588,661 (+137,995 | ΔW Change: ↓1.67% | Σ Increase: ↑1.11%)
• Deaths: 262,696 (+906 | ΔW Change: ↑57.29% | Σ Increase: ↑0.35%)

11/23: <M>

• Cases: 12,777,174 (+188,513 | ΔW Change: ↑9.81% | Σ Increase: ↑1.50%)
• Deaths: 263,687 (+991 | ΔW Change: ↑21.00% | Σ Increase: ↑0.38%)

11/24 (Yesterday): <T>

• Cases: 12,955,007 (+177,833 | ΔW Change: ↑12.91% | Σ Increase: ↑1.39%)
• Deaths: 265,891 (+2,204 | ΔW Change: ↑37.58% | Σ Increase: ↑0.84%)

11/25 (Today): <W>

• Cases: 13,137,962 (+182,955 | ΔW Change: ↑2.68% | Σ Increase: ↑1.41%)
• Deaths: 268,219 (+2,328 | ΔW Change: ↑16.34% | Σ Increase: ↑0.88%)

[VAR]

Rep. Susie Lee (D-NV-03) has tested positive for COVID-19.

https://twitter.com/RepSusieLee/status/1331783009364799491

[T'Chenka]

Jesus Christ on a cracker, we have a Russian agent in here spreading propaganda about schools closing or going on line causing children to lose years off of their lives. Can you please miss us with that s__t, Russian Puppet?

Here you go. I quoted the post because I agree with it — school closures were a poorly-designed and poorly-executed effort to create the perception of "doing something about the problem" in a way that wouldn't affect the lives of the people who actually created the rule. Closing schools (even as restaurants and gyms remained open) was. This quite obviously impacts poor people disproportionately, which is why California public schools are still closed as the Governor's kids go off to private school.

I was born in the US and have lived here all my life; same is true for my parents and grandparents. If you disagree, perhaps you'll need to formulate an actual argument now?

Conspiracy theorists: *make insane claim*
Normal people: That's some whack-ass fake news.
Conspiracy theorists: PROVE THAT IT'S FAKE!!1

The burden of proof is in on the person making the outlandish claim. That's how this works.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

In a move surprising no one, court rigged by death cult votes for more deaths by plague.

https://twitter.com/adamliptak/status/1331833345215520768

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Damn, it's like, I don't know, projection or something

https://twitter.com/dpakman/status/1330998265693802497
Literally incapable of imagining an opposition that doesn't think like you

I didn't know you liked / followed / read David Pakman!

Virginia is woke / based / etc etc.

So Ted Cruz thought, that Democrats would re-open schools helping poor kids, once Biden has won? His naïveté is almost adorable.

No, TDS is a strong within Democrat Party. They can't concede... that Trump's was right and that you have to re-open schools. They can't concede, even if it means screwing kids. I'd guess, they will wait until vaccination starts.

If Media do their jobs (probably they won't), people will punish Democrats in next election(s).

https://twitter.com/powellnyt/status/1329615411319615489

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Just open the damn schools like normal already.

This has gone on far too long.

[Holmes]

Nearly 200k infections a day and over 2k deaths with a vaccine right around the corner.... but yes let’s open schools now. Y’all want people to get sick so bad.

[Sir Mohamed]

The major isue with school seems that science doesn't have a clear answer how much they actually contribute to the spread. Studies often contradict themselves. That makes it so difficult.

[Beet]

It's my understanding that there are few scientific links to be found between schools opening and the spread of Covid-19. And in any case, having them closed isn't stopping the spread currently. Therefore, I would say they should open, but in either case it should not be a partisan, ideological issue any more than mask wearing is.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

The major isue with school seems that science doesn't have a clear answer how much they actually contribute to the spread. Studies often contradict themselves. That makes it so difficult.

I don’t think this is really accurate.  The science has come to pretty overwhelmingly show that schools contribute much less to the spread than many other aspects of society that have remained open throughout the pandemic, and which are less important to our future prosperity.  

Almost every interview I see with scientists recently supports this position.  Really the only people opposing school openings are teachers unions, Democratic politicians who don’t want to look like they are on the same side as Trump on any positions, and NIMBY rich parents who can afford alternative education.  

People who really care about achieving social equality through progressive policies over performatively doctrinaire partisan positions should support keeping schools open.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

The major isue with school seems that science doesn't have a clear answer how much they actually contribute to the spread. Studies often contradict themselves. That makes it so difficult.

I don’t think this is really accurate.  The science has come to pretty overwhelmingly show that schools contribute much less to the spread than many other aspects of society that have remained open throughout the pandemic, and which are less important to our future prosperity.  

Almost every interview I see with scientists recently supports this position.  Really the only people opposing school openings are teachers unions, Democratic politicians who don’t want to look like they are on the same side as Trump on any positions, and NIMBY rich parents who can afford alternative education.  

People who really care about achieving social equality through progressive policies over performatively doctrinaire partisan positions should support keeping schools open.

Older but relevant:



(If anyone has a newer equivalent, please share.)

[Dr. Arch]

Nearly 200k infections a day and over 2k deaths with a vaccine right around the corner.... but yes let’s open schools now. Y’all want people to get sick so bad.

It comes down to how selfish the person is, at this point. If they're not the ones dying, then they don't really care.

[It’s so Joever]

And once again, the differences between younger students and high schoolers are not made.
Does Atlas think everyone under 18 is biologically the same and that you only age once when you turn 18?
We have evidence there are different rates of spread among primary and secondary students, but apply one monolithic solution because that is clearly what will help us right now.
This forum is cancer.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

The major isue with school seems that science doesn't have a clear answer how much they actually contribute to the spread. Studies often contradict themselves. That makes it so difficult.

I don’t think this is really accurate.  The science has come to pretty overwhelmingly show that schools contribute much less to the spread than many other aspects of society that have remained open throughout the pandemic, and which are less important to our future prosperity.  

Almost every interview I see with scientists recently supports this position.  Really the only people opposing school openings are teachers unions, Democratic politicians who don’t want to look like they are on the same side as Trump on any positions, and NIMBY rich parents who can afford alternative education.  

People who really care about achieving social equality through progressive policies over performatively doctrinaire partisan positions should support keeping schools open.

Older but relevant:



(If anyone has a newer equivalent, please share.)

I’ve seen several of these lists throughout the pandemic, and I’ve never been able to understand how they all seemed to list shopping for groceries as one of the safest things you could do.  Like, how can it possibly be significantly safer than shopping at a mall, especially considering that most grocery stores are consistently very crowded and most malls are pretty empty and have been for years?

Of all the things on this list I’ve done in the past several months, shopping for groceries at least -felt- to me like the most dangerous, in the sense that I was forced to be in close contact with many people.  I’ve taken a few airplane flights that always seemed reasonably socially distanced, but I almost entirely switched over to curbside pickup for groceries.  

How can we be expecting students to do online school but not ask people to at least order their groceries for online delivery or pickup?

[emailking]

I've been trying to grocery shop in the morning before work when there's not that many people there, and always use the self checkout.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Almost every interview I see with scientists recently supports this position.  Really the only people opposing school openings are teachers unions, Democratic politicians who don’t want to look like they are on the same side as Trump on any positions, and NIMBY rich parents who can afford alternative education.

I have been very, very disappointed with teachers' unions in all this. Their refusal to bring back our schools is bad for children and for teachers, who will find themselves Zoomed right out of a job. They're like that union in West Virginia in the Michael Moore movie that wouldn't stand up for its workers.

At least one of the unions for amusement park workers wants to reopen. But I don't know why other unions haven't been at the forefront of ending lockdowns. I've supported unions for a long time, but their leaders have failed us. The teachers' unions certainly are not progressive. To be progressive means to make sure children get a quality education. Not some Zoom nonsense for 10 months.

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 11/26 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

ΔW Change: Comparisons of Weekly Day-to-day Growth or Decline of COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Comparing the numbers to the same day of last week, are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

Older Numbers (Hidden in spoiler mode to make the post more compact)

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11/15: <Sunday>

• Cases: 11,366,379 (+140,341 | ΔW Change: ↑32.82% | Σ Increase: ↑1.25%)
• Deaths: 251,832 (+576 | ΔW Change: ↑12.72% | Σ Increase: ↑0.23%)

11/16: <M>

• Cases: 11,538,057 (+171,678 | ΔW Change: ↑28.62% | Σ Increase: ↑1.51%)
• Deaths: 252,651 (+819 | ΔW Change: ↑20.44% | Σ Increase: ↑0.33%)

11/17: <T>

• Cases: 11,695,550 (+157,493 | ΔW Change: ↑14.77% | Σ Increase: ↑1.36%)
• Deaths: 254,253 (+1,602 | ΔW Change: ↑18.58% | Σ Increase: ↑0.63%)

11/18: <W>

• Cases: 11,873,727 (+178,177 | ΔW Change: ↑19.15% | Σ Increase: ↑1.52%)
• Deaths: 256,254 (+2,001 | ΔW Change: ↑25.14% | Σ Increase: ↑0.79%)

11/19: <Þ>

• Cases: 12,068,003 (+194,276 | ΔW Change: ↑17.59% | Σ Increase: ↑1.64%)
• Deaths: 258,302 (+2,048 | ΔW Change: ↑72.54% | Σ Increase: ↑0.80%)

11/20: <F>

• Cases: 12,274,726 (+206,723 | ΔW Change: ↑8.56% | Σ Increase: ↑1.71%)
• Deaths: 260,283 (+1,981 | ΔW Change: ↑42.52% | Σ Increase: ↑0.77%)

11/21: <S>

• Cases: 12,450,666 (+175,940 | ΔW Change: ↑8.82% | Σ Increase: ↑1.43%)
• Deaths: 261,790 (+1,507 | ΔW Change: ↑17.64% | Σ Increase: ↑0.58%)

11/22: <Sunday>

• Cases: 12,588,661 (+137,995 | ΔW Change: ↓1.67% | Σ Increase: ↑1.11%)
• Deaths: 262,696 (+906 | ΔW Change: ↑57.29% | Σ Increase: ↑0.35%)

11/23: <M>

• Cases: 12,777,174 (+188,513 | ΔW Change: ↑9.81% | Σ Increase: ↑1.50%)
• Deaths: 263,687 (+991 | ΔW Change: ↑21.00% | Σ Increase: ↑0.38%)

11/24: <T>

• Cases: 12,955,007 (+177,833 | ΔW Change: ↑12.91% | Σ Increase: ↑1.39%)
• Deaths: 265,891 (+2,204 | ΔW Change: ↑37.58% | Σ Increase: ↑0.84%)

11/25 (Yesterday): <W>

• Cases: 13,137,962 (+182,955 | ΔW Change: ↑2.68% | Σ Increase: ↑1.41%)
• Deaths: 268,219 (+2,328 | ΔW Change: ↑16.34% | Σ Increase: ↑0.88%)

11/26 (Today): <Þ-Holiday>

• Cases: 13,248,676 (+110,714 | ΔW Change: ↓43.01% | Σ Increase: ↑0.84%)
• Deaths: 269,555 (+1,336 | ΔW Change: ↓34.77% | Σ Increase: ↑0.50%)

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

The major isue with school seems that science doesn't have a clear answer how much they actually contribute to the spread. Studies often contradict themselves. That makes it so difficult.

I don’t think this is really accurate.  The science has come to pretty overwhelmingly show that schools contribute much less to the spread than many other aspects of society that have remained open throughout the pandemic, and which are less important to our future prosperity.  

Almost every interview I see with scientists recently supports this position.  Really the only people opposing school openings are teachers unions, Democratic politicians who don’t want to look like they are on the same side as Trump on any positions, and NIMBY rich parents who can afford alternative education.  

People who really care about achieving social equality through progressive policies over performatively doctrinaire partisan positions should support keeping schools open.

Older but relevant:



(If anyone has a newer equivalent, please share.)

This is really old and very physical-contact-focused, whereas it has since been shown that physical contact is a negligible contributor to spread of the disease, and it's nearly all about airborne particles, and thus activities with no masks and indoor air are the most dangerous, activities with masks or outdoors are much less dangerous, and activities with masks and outdoors are basically zero risk - essentially every activity can be categorized this way, and so there are only four meaningful categories. For example, the risk of hair salons and barber shops is actually very low as long as everyone is wearing a mask, but they are listed as high-risk.

Great. Do you have a link from a reputable medical source that agrees with your summary and proposes a replacement?

[Del Tachi]

The major isue with school seems that science doesn't have a clear answer how much they actually contribute to the spread. Studies often contradict themselves. That makes it so difficult.

I don’t think this is really accurate.  The science has come to pretty overwhelmingly show that schools contribute much less to the spread than many other aspects of society that have remained open throughout the pandemic, and which are less important to our future prosperity.   

Almost every interview I see with scientists recently supports this position.  Really the only people opposing school openings are teachers unions, Democratic politicians who don’t want to look like they are on the same side as Trump on any positions, and NIMBY rich parents who can afford alternative education. 

People who really care about achieving social equality through progressive policies over performatively doctrinaire partisan positions should support keeping schools open.

Older but relevant:



(If anyone has a newer equivalent, please share.)

This is really old and very physical-contact-focused, whereas it has since been shown that physical contact is a negligible contributor to spread of the disease, and it's nearly all about airborne particles, and thus activities with no masks and indoor air are the most dangerous, activities with masks or outdoors are much less dangerous, and activities with masks and outdoors are basically zero risk - essentially every activity can be categorized this way, and so there are only four meaningful categories. For example, the risk of hair salons and barber shops is actually very low as long as everyone is wearing a mask, but they are listed as high-risk.

Great. Do you have a link from a reputable medical source that agrees with your summary and proposes a replacement?

lmao no, because "low risk" to "high risk" is not a standard gradient that every single interaction can be classified into - it's way too multidimensional

Not everything can be reduced down to a simple, digestible chart or graphic.  Anyone who tries to dumb down complex issues like this is (probably) lying to you, or at least not operating in 100% good faith   

[OkThen]

https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2020/11/25/alab-n25.html

"Over the past two weeks, the rate of COVID-19 infections across Alabama has increased by over 50 percent, with teachers and other school employees representing a significant number of these cases. In one Alabama school district, Hoover City School, two district employees have died within the past week after contracting the virus."

So yeah, anyways. People clearly don't care about teachers lives and will continue to paint them as selfish (btw, in many cases teachers are more worried about someone vulnerable they live with than themselves). Also the "NIMBY rich parents" you mention have been by FAR the most vocal about opening schools so idk where that's coming from.

The major isue with school seems that science doesn't have a clear answer how much they actually contribute to the spread. Studies often contradict themselves. That makes it so difficult.

I don’t think this is really accurate.  The science has come to pretty overwhelmingly show that schools contribute much less to the spread than many other aspects of society that have remained open throughout the pandemic, and which are less important to our future prosperity.  

Almost every interview I see with scientists recently supports this position.  Really the only people opposing school openings are teachers unions, Democratic politicians who don’t want to look like they are on the same side as Trump on any positions, and NIMBY rich parents who can afford alternative education.  

People who really care about achieving social equality through progressive policies over performatively doctrinaire partisan positions should support keeping schools open.

[Del Tachi]

https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2020/11/25/alab-n25.html

"Over the past two weeks, the rate of COVID-19 infections across Alabama has increased by over 50 percent, with teachers and other school employees representing a significant number of these cases. In one Alabama school district, Hoover City School, two district employees have died within the past week after contracting the virus."

Teachers and school district employees represent a significant number of cases because they're a significant portion of the population, lol. In many areas, the local school district is the largest local employer.

The 2 district employees who died....no mention they contracted it at work, btw 

[Former President tack50]

Data from Europe, but should be same'ish in US as well.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-deaths-in-europe-are-overwhelmingly-among-those-over-60-11606053600
Covid Deaths in Europe Are Overwhelmingly Among Those Over 60
Survival rates improve modestly, but disease still takes the elderly, and more men

LONDON—Europe’s older citizens are bearing the brunt of the coronavirus pandemic’s second wave in the region.

People over 60 make up more than nine in 10 fatalities linked to Covid-19 since the start of August, figures show, with more men than women succumbing to it. The virus has now claimed more than 1.3 million lives world-wide.

The pattern, similar to that observed in Europe’s first wave of the pandemic as well as in the U.S., highlights the danger the virus continues to pose to older age groups and the difficulty of shielding the most vulnerable if the pandemic spreads more broadly, researchers say.

The policy conclusion: If the virus gets out of control in the community, there isn’t a practical way to prevent older people from catching it.

Doctors say they are seeing modest improvements in survival rates among all age groups, as their armory of treatments expands and their knowledge of the disease deepens.

“On the ground, the demographic is pretty similar to what it was,” said Tom Wingfield, an infectious-disease physician in Liverpool, England. “But people are having better outcomes,” he said.

Demographic data on all deaths in Europe isn’t available. But an analysis by The Wall Street Journal of around 78,000 deaths in an ECDC database of patients hospitalized with Covid-19 shows that in both the first and second waves more than 90% of deaths were in those age 60 and over.

Those over 80 years old account for a slightly higher proportion of second-wave deaths, with 67% of fatalities in that age group from Aug. 3 to Nov. 15. That compares with 60% for the year through July 31. Men made up 56% of all deaths across both waves.

Statistically, one average death from Covid-19 is probably equal to about 1/5th-1/10th of a death in a normal epidemic in terms of years of life lost.

https://twitter.com/hannah_natanson/status/1331236497308180480
https://twitter.com/hannah_natanson/status/1331238704099291140


And if you think, the kids will catch up... most/large share of the most vulnerable won't. There are a lot of rigorous studies that say that damage will be permanent. It will lead to more drop-outs, worse marks, worse academic and job carrier and overall a worse quality of life for (tens of???) millions kids. It means also shorter life expectancy. And the more time schools are closed, the more damage and the more difficult for kids to catch up.

Especially for poor kids.
Especially for minority kids.
Especially for kids with disabilities.
Especially with Math and English, two arguably most important subjects.

With other words it won't significantly effect the kids of White Wealthy Libs (that is the owners of Democrat Party), but it will effect greatly the kids of the backbone of the Democrat Party.

Remember, it didn't need to be like that. It didn't happen at such large scale in Europe in Spring, despite them being hit much harder than US. And that didn't happen in Europe after summer school breaks at all. Science (at least since May/June) say it should NOT be happening. It was a political decision against Science. All this is due to #resist Bad Orange's call to reopen schools. If you voted for these people, it's on you. No ifs or buts.

Failure rates of 80% are nothing unheard of in college, so at least said students will be better prepared for what their post-HS life will look like when 80-90% of the class fails

Now seriously, Europe at-large is more than enough evidence that schools should have remained open.

[Former President tack50]

Our national debt is at a dangerous level. Therefore, I oppose any new massive stimulus packages.

and we have almost 28 TRILLION DOLLARS of national debt! No more major stimulus packages please. I am done with this bull.

There is literally 0 danger from the "national debt" to anything. The only danger is an imaginary danger that is infecting your mind and causing you to support sabotaging the economy and making people worse off due to insufficient spending power circulating through the economy.

Late, but Greece circa 2013 agrees with this statement

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1332081697727213568

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Our national debt is at a dangerous level. Therefore, I oppose any new massive stimulus packages.

and we have almost 28 TRILLION DOLLARS of national debt! No more major stimulus packages please. I am done with this bull.

There is literally 0 danger from the "national debt" to anything. The only danger is an imaginary danger that is infecting your mind and causing you to support sabotaging the economy and making people worse off due to insufficient spending power circulating through the economy.

Late, but Greece circa 2013 agrees with this statement

The key difference you are overlooking is that Greece does not control its own currency and have its own central bank, whereas the USA does. Greece is in essentially the same position as US states and municipalities are in, as well as in the same position as you, me, other individuals, and private companies. You and I (and US states, and Greece) do have financial constraints to how much debt we can take on, but the US government is in a very different position because it has a money printing machine. Do you have a money printing machine? No. If you did though, you could print as much of it as you wanted. That is the position the US Federal government is in. There is no financial constraint to how much money the US government can create. The only constraints on what the US government can do are questions of how much money it is wise to print/create. The risk of creating too much money is that at a certain point, if you make too much of it, there may be inflation. So the US government does and should have to worry about macroeconomic considerations like inflation and the unemployment rate when setting its fiscal policy, but there is no reason to ever worry that the USA will run out of money. Currently, since inflation is low and unemployment is high, that is a signal that it is macroeconomically warranted for the government to run larger budget deficits. Of course, if we spend too much and inflation gets too high (and if the reason it is getting too high is we don't have underutilized productive capacity), then that would call for smaller budget deficits. But that is emphatically not remotely the current situation, and it won't be the situation in the foreseeable future, in particular if the Republicans keep blocking additional much needed stimulus.