COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron

[Bandit3 the Worker]

A large amount of excess deaths are a result of Lockdowns that cause mass unemployment and subsequent Drug overdoses, Heart attacks/strokes from Stress and bad Food, people dying from lack of medical care, along with suicides from depression caused from increased poverty and Social alienation.

After I had a pulmonary embolism and possible heart attack in April because of lockdowns, I can confirm this.

Life means nothing to our corporatist overlords.

[Smeulders]

Yeah, complete and utter .... Sure lockdowns add some risks, they also take away others (traffic and workplace accidents). I won't pretend to know which way the balance goes, but to pretend that it significant in either direction is very questionable. In Belgium excess deaths track very strongly with reported Covid deaths. If the effects of lockdowns have a significant influence, we'd expect the excess deaths to fall slower than Covid deaths. (As the lockdown lowers case numbers, Covid deaths go down, but "lockdown" deaths go up). This simply does not happen.

I always love seeing "lack of medical care" in those lists of the risks of lockdowns as well. Medical systems do not delay procedures because there is a lockdown. They delay other medical procedures because they are overburdened by Covid cases. Lockdowns make sure capacity in the medical system remains available for other medical issues.

Of course, I'm not sure why I'm even trying to argue with someone who jumps straight to "conspiracies by the global capitalist elite"

[It’s so Joever]

Yeah, complete and utter .... Sure lockdowns add some risks, they also take away others (traffic and workplace accidents). I won't pretend to know which way the balance goes, but to pretend that it significant in either direction is very questionable. In Belgium excess deaths track very strongly with reported Covid deaths. If the effects of lockdowns have a significant influence, we'd expect the excess deaths to fall slower than Covid deaths. (As the lockdown lowers case numbers, Covid deaths go down, but "lockdown" deaths go up). This simply does not happen.

I always love seeing "lack of medical care" in those lists of the risks of lockdowns as well. Medical systems do not delay procedures because there is a lockdown. They delay other medical procedures because they are overburdened by Covid cases. Lockdowns make sure capacity in the medical system remains available for other medical issues.

Of course, I'm not sure why I'm even trying to argue with someone who jumps straight to "conspiracies by the global capitalist elite"

Don’t even try.
These people don’t live in reality, I actually think it’s some sort of mental issue.
They need to believe in some conspiracy because it’s more comforting than reality.
Downplaying Covid is a coping mechanism, it’s just a shame it hurts those around.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/joshtpm/status/1337417029033275392

[It’s so Joever]

https://twitter.com/joshtpm/status/1337417029033275392

Don’t say it, don’t say it, don’t say it...

[emailking]

In conclusion, the sane approach would have been a targeted stay-at-home order only for the very Old and/or very Sick, while everybody else would be able to continue their normal life with only minor precautions (washing your hands and voluntary Mask wearing), that would have saved Millions of jobs, thousands of Small business's, Hundreds of thousands of excess deaths, and potentially a good chunk of the Covid-19 fatalities. The reason this wasn’t done was because the Lockdowns were never about saving people from the virus, but instead were a sneaky way for the Global Capitalist Elite (in the U$, EU, Russia, China, and all the Third World banana republics) to accelerate the 4th industrial Revolution to eliminate the Working Class.

You can't have a stay at home order for just the old and sick because it violates the Equal Protection clause of the 14th Amendment. At most you could strongly encourage them to stay home.

[emailking]

Ok, sorry.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

https://twitter.com/joshtpm/status/1337417029033275392

Byrd, a former teacher and principal, in 2018 was accused by three former students of sexually assaulting them in the 1980s when he coached their girls basketball team at Wayne County High School.

He never publicly denied the allegations, but said he has done nothing wrong while in office.

WTF is wrong with half of this country???

[It’s so Joever]

https://twitter.com/joshtpm/status/1337417029033275392

Byrd, a former teacher and principal, in 2018 was accused by three former students of sexually assaulting them in the 1980s when he coached their girls basketball team at Wayne County High School.

He never publicly denied the allegations, but said he has done nothing wrong while in office.

WTF is wrong with half of this country???

Mental illness.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/cmarinucci/status/1337490022929375237

Not gonna comment...not gonna comment...

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

https://twitter.com/HatRuben/status/1337558213273718786

F#ck Kyle, slamming Fauci.

[jamestroll]

Yeah, complete and utter .... Sure lockdowns add some risks, they also take away others (traffic and workplace accidents). I won't pretend to know which way the balance goes, but to pretend that it significant in either direction is very questionable. In Belgium excess deaths track very strongly with reported Covid deaths. If the effects of lockdowns have a significant influence, we'd expect the excess deaths to fall slower than Covid deaths. (As the lockdown lowers case numbers, Covid deaths go down, but "lockdown" deaths go up). This simply does not happen.

I always love seeing "lack of medical care" in those lists of the risks of lockdowns as well. Medical systems do not delay procedures because there is a lockdown. They delay other medical procedures because they are overburdened by Covid cases. Lockdowns make sure capacity in the medical system remains available for other medical issues.

Of course, I'm not sure why I'm even trying to argue with someone who jumps straight to "conspiracies by the global capitalist elite"

I am not supporting any lockdowns any further after much thinking.

1) We created a massive stimulus bill last March. At that time we had the tools, financial help and resources we needed to have a hard lockdown in the United States. If we would have done a hard lock down at that time we would not have these problems today. Sure by now there would be a "surge" but only like 20 to 30k cases a day. Not 250k cases a day. We could have reopened in July under mitigated measures once the virus spread was nearly eradicated. But we wasted an entire lockdown and wasted literally trillions of dollars. I am not willing to waste more.

2) Any further lockdowns now create an untenable situation. Unlike the spring there is no financial help anymore and this time a hard lock down would actually create the massive fears the anti-lockdown people have.

3) Seeing Republicans openly defy mitigations and mask mandates makes me question the effectiveness of a national lockdown. All it would do is damage blue state economies while doing very little to reduce the virus spread.

Given how people are now defying common sense public health standards I have zero sympathy if they get covid 19.

Not to mention that even vaccination of only elderly and vulnerable people would make a huge difference in the fatality rate of covid-19 and would go a long way back to normalcy.

Also we can debate the pros and cons of the United States lack of a robust welfare system and an economy that is heavily based on a service economy but those two factors have made it nearly impossible to have effective lockdowns in the United States. Along with federalism.

Irrespective what you think of levels of welfare spending, consumerism, and federalism it can not denied that they have been major hindrances in controlling the virus.

[emailking]

I don't think you're going to get a lockdown in a Virginia that's stronger than the curfew.

[Roll Roons]

Boom: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/11/health/pfizer-vaccine-authorized.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

https://twitter.com/cmarinucci/status/1337490022929375237

Not gonna comment...not gonna comment...

Moscow Devin.

[Tintrlvr]

You can't have a stay at home order for just the old and sick because it violates the Equal Protection clause of the 14th Amendment. At most you could strongly encourage them to stay home.

No it doesn't. Since the distinctions are not being made on the basis of a "suspect classification" (race, gender, religion, etc. — you could maybe argue age here, but certainly not "sickness"), the plaintiffs would have to demonstrate that there was no rational basis for the difference in treatment. The rational basis clearly exists for sick people!

Age is also not a Constitutionally protected class; that's well-trodden ground.

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 12/11 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

ΔW Change: Comparisons of Weekly Day-to-day Growth or Decline of COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Comparing the numbers to the same day of last week, are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

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11/29: <Sunday>

• Cases: 13,750,404 (+140,047 | ΔW Change: ↑1.49% | Σ Increase: ↑1.03%)
• Deaths: 273,072 (+818 | ΔW Change: ↓9.71% | Σ Increase: ↑0.30%)

11/30: <M>

• Cases: 13,919,870 (+169,466 | ΔW Change: ↓10.10% | Σ Increase: ↑1.23%)
• Deaths: 274,332 (+1,260 | ΔW Change: ↑27.14% | Σ Increase: ↑0.46%)

12/1: <T>

• Cases: 14,108,490 (+188,620 | ΔW Change: ↑6.07% | Σ Increase: ↑1.36%)
• Deaths: 276,976 (+2,644 | ΔW Change: ↑19.96% | Σ Increase: ↑0.96%)

12/2: <W>

• Cases: 14,313,941 (+205,451 | ΔW Change: ↑12.30% | Σ Increase: ↑1.46%)
• Deaths: 279,865 (+2,889 | ΔW Change: ↑24.10% | Σ Increase: ↑1.04%)

12/3: <Þ-Last Þ Holiday>

• Cases: 14,535,196 (+221,255 | ΔW Change: ↑99.84% | Σ Increase: ↑1.55%)
• Deaths: 282,829 (+2,964 | ΔW Change: ↑121.83% | Σ Increase: ↑1.06%)

12/4: <F>

• Cases: 14,772,353 (+237,157 | ΔW Change: ↑15.36% | Σ Increase: ↑1.63%)
• Deaths: 285,550 (+2,721 | ΔW Change: ↑84.98% | Σ Increase: ↑0.96%)

12/5: <S>

• Cases: 14,983,425 (+211,072 | ΔW Change: ↑35.21% | Σ Increase: ↑1.43%)
• Deaths: 287,825 (+2,275 | ΔW Change: ↑85.26% | Σ Increase: ↑0.80%)

12/6: <Sunday>

• Cases: 15,159,259 (+175,834 | ΔW Change: ↑25.55% | Σ Increase: ↑1.17%)
• Deaths: 288,906 (+1,081 | ΔW Change: ↑32.15% | Σ Increase: ↑0.38%)

12/7: <M>

• Cases: 15,369,046 (+209,787 | ΔW Change: ↑23.79% | Σ Increase: ↑1.38%)
• Deaths: 290,443 (+1,537 | ΔW Change: ↑21.98% | Σ Increase: ↑0.53%)

12/8: <T>

• Cases: 15,591,709 (+222,663 | ΔW Change: ↑18.05% | Σ Increase: ↑1.45%)
• Deaths: 293,398 (+2,955 | ΔW Change: ↑11.76% | Σ Increase: ↑1.02%)

12/9: <W>

• Cases: 15,820,042 (+228,333 | ΔW Change: ↑11.14% | Σ Increase: ↑1.46%)
• Deaths: 296,698 (+3,300 | ΔW Change: ↑14.23% | Σ Increase: ↑1.12%)

12/10 (Yesterday): <Þ>

• Cases: 16,039,393 (+219,351 | ΔW Change: ↓0.86% | Σ Increase: ↑1.39%)
• Deaths: 299,692 (+2,994 | ΔW Change: ↑1.01% | Σ Increase: ↑1.01%)

12/11 (Today): <F>

• Cases: 16,295,458 (+256,065 | ΔW Change: ↑7.97% | Σ Increase: ↑1.60%)
• Deaths: 302,750 (+3,058 | ΔW Change: ↑12.39% | Σ Increase: ↑1.02%)

[emailking]

So it's not a 14th Amendment violation, but I do think it would be incredibly unfair to force elderly and sick people (like cancer patients, or someone with a liver transplant) to stay home, and only them. So much so that I think any such order should cover everyone. I'm also a bit dubious of lockdowns in general from a legal perspective, but I think everyone should be voluntarily staying home as much as is feasible.

[Pericles]

If the virus was just running wild among under 65s, it would be very hard to 'protect the vulnerable'. The much safer and more reliable way of doing it was to reduce the spread among all age groups.

[Pericles]

Interestingly, Fauci just did an interview with a NZ news organisation. He reflected a bit on his own role in the US's outcome-

However, before the vaccine arrives, nearly 300,000 Americans will have died from Covid. Does Fauci feel a personal sense of guilt?

“I think it’s a natural emotion, to feel that. Even though you really don’t have much control over it, there’s that feeling of, ‘Could I have done better? Is there something I didn’t do right?’ You can’t let it paralyse you.”

Fauci is reluctant to be drawn on any regrets, but hints that the United States could have gone harder and earlier, as New Zealand did.

“Probably, in the very beginning of the outbreak when we saw community spread, maybe we should have been more aggressive in getting the country to shut down. But I think, quite frankly, if we had asked the country to shut down, no-one would have responded to us.

“[In hindsight], I likely would have tried to do that – but I doubt I would have been successful.”

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/300180952/have-i-shed-tears-oh-yeah-dr-anthony-fauci-on-mental-health-president-trump-and-the-covid19-vaccine

[jamestroll]

I have given up.

I will just wait for herd immunity through large number of cases and vaccinations. I now encourage everyone to go out and not wear a mask so the vaccine trails can be expedited.

[emailking]

I have given up.

I will just wait for herd immunity through large number of cases and vaccinations. I now encourage everyone to go out and not wear a mask so the vaccine trails can be expedited.

The major vaccine trials are completed. Pfizer vaccine just got approved. Now it has to be mass manufactured be distributed, and you should wear a mask so you don't inadvertently infect others in the meantime who are waiting for the vaccine.

[jamestroll]

I have given up.

I will just wait for herd immunity through large number of cases and vaccinations. I now encourage everyone to go out and not wear a mask so the vaccine trails can be expedited.

The major vaccine trials are completed. Pfizer vaccine just got approved. Now it has to be mass manufactured be distributed, and you should wear a mask so you don't inadvertently infect others in the meantime who are waiting for the vaccine.

ill wear a mask of course.

I am just frustrated  and have conceded to the virus at this point

[It’s so Joever]

I have given up.

I will just wait for herd immunity through large number of cases and vaccinations. I now encourage everyone to go out and not wear a mask so the vaccine trails can be expedited.

The major vaccine trials are completed. Pfizer vaccine just got approved. Now it has to be mass manufactured be distributed, and you should wear a mask so you don't inadvertently infect others in the meantime who are waiting for the vaccine.

ill wear a mask of course.

I am just frustrated  and have conceded to the virus at this point

At this point I understand that.
While I don’t agree, I have sometimes pondered whether I should even care about if other people get sick. I only care now because it increases my risk of exposure.

[T'Chenka]

https://twitter.com/HatRuben/status/1337558213273718786

F#ck Kyle, slamming Fauci.

I REALLY like 90% of what Kyle has to say, but the other 10% is pretty cringey. Imagine how much worse the pandemic might have been if Trump had fired Fauci / forced him to quit early early on and replaced him with a stooge.