Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Yes, I'm sure Chechens thought they were getting a very good deal when their cities were being ground into dust by Putin. Truly an enviable deal there.

My man, I don't think you're aware of the history of Chechnya within Russia didn't stop in the year 2000, or how crazy the separatists where, or how many billions of bucks have gone into building up Grozny, or the broader understanding of how Putin handles Muslim issues (He sees us as a constituency to placate lest anything bad occur from the most radical and misled of us).
Your frame of reference is incredibly limited.

Wow, you're so enlightened. Here I was thinking razing an entire country was bad, but you've really opened my eyes.

I don't know why I even bother with you. The day you'll realize that geopolitical issues involve the real lives of real human beings and aren't just an excuse to showcase your superior intellect, maybe you'll be worth engaging with.

Point to where I have said the Russians weren't terrible in how they conducted themselves in the Chechen War (something I've actually made reference to multiple times in-thread - querying to someone months ago about whether Russian tactics cause unnecessary casualties). There can be two bad sides in a war.

None of what you said here is actually relevant to the point at hand, yet you keep bringing it up as if it changes anything to the moral stakes at hand. You keep doing this constantly with everything - every time a Russian war crime is unearthed, you make sure to point out Ukrainians have done bad stuff too (often incredibly minor or purely speculative stuff, mind you). It's like you're allergic to the very notion of moral clarity.

What I'm saying is that Russia's history with Muslims is chequered and complicated. I specifically cite cultural contact that has seen Muslims contribute to the Russian state and society since the 18th century. I've also noted that Putin has spent literally tens of billions essentially bribing Chechnya not to cause him political problems. Putin's legitimacy relies on handling Russia's "sphere" well. Kadyrov, like Lukashenko, profits from this quasi-feudal arrangement (here used as a simple descriptor, not a pejorative). The former's a brutal thug, the latter is a genius, but both benefit from this.

Tens of billions in return for not rebelling? Putin's petromoney used to make magnificent Islamic centers of worship? Massive amounts of autonomy AND seats in the Duma of the most powerful regional player? All in a country like Russia? If that's not a sweet deal, I don't know what is. Putin's handling of Chechnya has been full of seeming contradictions on paper; but it all makes sense when looking at the broader picture.

I don't think positively of Putin, or Kadyrov, but there's one animus that Putin cannot be credibly accused of without veering into hysterical territory, and that is being anti-Muslim or anti-Islam. Some of the people in Russian army certainly are, but they don't direct state policy. If Putin was anti-Muslim, wouldn't that had blown up in his face by this point? (Perhaps literally)

There have been anti-Islam, anti-Muslim Russian governments before, there will probably be another one. Muslims have taken steps counter to said governments' wishes, just like you'd expect from any prosecuted religious minority. But Putin's government does not rank among said governments.

[NOVA Green]

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1584864887964303361?s=20&t=Z90uTj...

Not totally surprising, considering how Russia has committed systematic organized looting thus far.

It is also not totally unfeasible that Russia is both withdrawing from Kherson City, while also simultaneously reinforcing it.

Multiple reports that Russia has removed many of their elite troops, civilian administrative infrastructure, etc, while also simultaneously dumping Mobnik cannon fodder into the city...

[NOVA Green]

Apparently a few developments on the war front today, which I don't believe anybody has yet posted...

Ukrainian forces continued their advance against the Russian military in the southern Kherson region Tuesday, pushed back Russian mercenaries from Bakhmut in eastern Donetsk, and gained new momentum in Luhansk, where they seized a key highway between the towns of Kreminna and Svatove.

On a day of heavy fighting and fast-moving developments across multiple combat zones, the Ukrainians appeared to extend their recent successes in recapturing occupied territories and pushing Moscow’s troops into retreat in areas that President Vladimir Putin has claimed now belong to Russia.

As Ukraine continued to make gains, pro-Kremlin military bloggers and analysts confirmed new setbacks for Russia’s forces Tuesday, including in Luhansk, the easternmost occupied region of Ukraine, where Russia has had its firmest grip.

“The Ukrainian army has resumed its counteroffensive in the Luhansk direction,” the pro-Russian WarGonzo project said in its daily military update, adding that Ukrainian forces took control of a key highway between the Luhansk towns of Svatove and Kreminna.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/10/25/bakhmut-kherson-ukraine-war-russia/

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1584864887964303361?s=20&t=Z90uTj...

Not totally surprising, considering how Russia has committed systematic organized looting thus far.

It is also not totally unfeasible that Russia is both withdrawing from Kherson City, while also simultaneously reinforcing it.

Multiple reports that Russia has removed many of their elite troops, civilian administrative infrastructure, etc, while also simultaneously dumping Mobnik cannon fodder into the city...

Looting on this scale sounds like feels like Mongols lite.
Ukraine will need a lot of money to rebuild. Hopefully Russia can be made to pay some reparations.

[NOVA Green]

I had posted something yesterday regarding the potential of the impact of the coming Winter season on the War in Ukraine...

Mike Ryan just published a thread on this today...

Here's a link to a portion of the thread... believe in order to see all 25 tweets that are part of his thread you need to click on the link?


https://twitter.com/WarintheFuture/status/1585018303155961856?s=20&t=6Sjw7wH...

Here is a link to an article he cites about the "Winter War" when the Soviet Union invaded Finland.

https://warontherocks.com/2016/07/lessons-from-the-winter-war-frozen-grit-and-finlands-fabian-defense/

[NOVA Green]

Looks like Russia is  starting to use the Kherson Oblast Dam as a weapon, albeit they have not yet blown it up...

https://twitter.com/markito0171/status/1584929812321533952?s=20&t=6Sjw7wHqmW...

[NOVA Green]

Anybody either posting or lurking on Atlas who actually unironically believes that Russia is not becoming a full blown totalitarian state needs to pay more attention...

Bit more to the article.... simply select "translate to English" if on a Chrome browser if you don't speak Russian.

Universities are planning to introduce a subject that studies “Russian ideology”. This is reported by Meduza, citing two sources close to the Kremlin and three employees of Russian universities who are familiar with the plans.

“The West is rotting, it constantly spoiled Russia, but its time has passed, we have a great future, a rich history and culture, we must use the moment of crisis and get everything from it,” one of the sources described a summary of the discipline.

According to the interlocutors, the development of a new university subject is supervised by the Kremlin's internal political bloc, headed by the first deputy head of the presidential administration, Sergei Kiriyenko. The course will be developed by the Knowledge Society with the participation of the Ministry of Education, sources say.

The discipline should appear in universities in the next academic year. The "basic contours" of the subject will be discussed on October 26 in Sochi at the "DNA of Russia" conference. According to Meduza, technical students will study the course for one year, liberal arts students for "several years," and historians and political scientists for the entire duration of their studies.

https://zona.media/news/2022/10/25/nonscholae

[NOVA Green]

Same note... Russian censorship of musical artists is continuing...

The Zamoskvoretsky District Court of Moscow recognized the text of the song "Last Call" by rapper Oxxxymiron as extremist , a RIA Novosti correspondent reports from the court.

The Moscow prosecutor's office, which filed the lawsuit, said that the examination found in the song "signs of a public justification of violent actions and an ideology of violence." The ban also includes "videos containing the specified track," the department added .

The song, which was released in 2009, told in the first person how a bullying schoolboy plans to shoot at the last bell.

https://zona.media/news/2022/10/25/oxxxy

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/davidhelms570/status/1585052404399022080?s=20&t=Gk8zfRee...

[Meclazine for Israel]

Former Australian Treasurer, Joe Hockey, says that the chances of Putin using nuclear weapons in this conflict are running at about 30%.

https://www.perthnow.com.au/news/conflict/joe-hockey-agrees-with-joe-bidens-nuclear-russian-war-prediction-c-8524107

That is about 29.999% higher than what I was hoping.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Excellent video.

[Logical]

Russian spy x NDP crossover
https://twitter.com/shaunwalker7/status/1584956092974567435
https://twitter.com/DevineSean/status/643588618024579074

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Andrey Gurulyov, Duma MP and former general, corroborates the Ukrainian claims that Russia has been using S-300 AA missiles against ground targets (and also claims S-400 missiles are used for this purpose): https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1585195676723720192

While this was perfectly plausible, it was hard to verify (AA missile wreckage could have come from fallen missiles used in an AA role, especially considering that Ukraine also possesses S-300 missiles). It's still not 100% confirmed as Duma MPs should never be taken at face value, but I consider it very likely at this point.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Tendar/status/1585189105201483777

[jaichind]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11355779/South-Africa-REFUSES-seize-Putin-allys-superyacht.html

"South Africa REFUSES to seize Putin ally’s superyacht, saying the country has ‘no reason’ to comply with Western sanctions"

[Virginiá]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/winters-onset-will-change-russias-war-in-ukraine-11666608971?mod=hp_lead_pos7

Just think about all the stories we've read and videos we've seen of Russian mobiks who were dumped in some random forest position with no food, no water, no supplies, no winter clothes, barely any weapons, and virtually no contact with army command or other officers. Practically just random homeless people in the woods with the vague order to fight Ukraine. Some of these people aren't going to make it through winter while many others may decide to surrender or otherwise abandon their post.

[Hatman 🍁]

Russian spy x NDP crossover
https://twitter.com/shaunwalker7/status/1584956092974567435
https://twitter.com/DevineSean/status/643588618024579074

Weird. Sean just got elected to city council. Might want to delete this tweet.

[Omega21]

BASF to downsize ‘permanently’ in Europe

World’s biggest chemicals company says high energy costs make region increasingly uncompetitive

https://www.ft.com/content/f6d2fe70-16fb-4d81-a26a-3afb93e0bf57

[Stranger in a strange land]

Russian spy x NDP crossover
https://twitter.com/shaunwalker7/status/1584956092974567435
https://twitter.com/DevineSean/status/643588618024579074

Weird. Sean just got elected to city council. Might want to delete this tweet.

Can we be sure it's the same guy though?

[Red Velvet]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11355779/South-Africa-REFUSES-seize-Putin-allys-superyacht.html

"South Africa REFUSES to seize Putin ally’s superyacht, saying the country has ‘no reason’ to comply with Western sanctions"

South Africa, always the kweengs of the Global South

[Logical]

Russian spy x NDP crossover
https://twitter.com/shaunwalker7/status/1584956092974567435
https://twitter.com/DevineSean/status/643588618024579074

Weird. Sean just got elected to city council. Might want to delete this tweet.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/university-of-calgary-norway-russia-jose-assis-giammaria-1.6629384

The accused spy is the volunteer not the guy elected to the City Council.

While he was in Canada, Giammaria volunteered for Sean Devine's political campaign as an election worker in 2015. At the time, Devine was seeking to represent the riding of Ottawa-Nepean for the NDP.

Speaking to CBC News on Tuesday night, Devine said he didn't remember him well, but recalled that Giammaria was a good speaker.

"He had a really impressive resume," added Devine, who now sits on Ottawa city council. "He was a good volunteer."

Devine said he has not been in contact with Giammaria since his campaign work seven years ago.

[MasterJedi]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11355779/South-Africa-REFUSES-seize-Putin-allys-superyacht.html

"South Africa REFUSES to seize Putin ally’s superyacht, saying the country has ‘no reason’ to comply with Western sanctions"

South Africa, always the kweengs of the Global South

Africa is basically a collection of Chinese and somewhat Russian colonies these days.

[Red Velvet]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11355779/South-Africa-REFUSES-seize-Putin-allys-superyacht.html

"South Africa REFUSES to seize Putin ally’s superyacht, saying the country has ‘no reason’ to comply with Western sanctions"

South Africa, always the kweengs of the Global South

Africa is basically a collection of Chinese and somewhat Russian colonies these days.

If that were to be true (I don’t think alliance means colony relationship), so way more power to China and Russia then?

What colonies US has nowadays other than Europe? Even Central America is out of their control more recently.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1585268487773208583?s=20&t=8UVZjzs2...

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1585266292545798147?s=20&t=PL0uZg...

[NOVA Green]

More sabotage in Russia...

Russian anti-war group Stop the Wagons (STW) has claimed responsibility for derailing a train on a Russian railway 15km from the border of Belarus.

The governor of Russia's Belgorod region said on Monday that an explosive device damaged the railway near the village of Novozybkovo. The line is the main rail link between Russia and southern Belarus and is responsible for supply logistics to Russian soldiers fighting in Ukraine. Spanning more than 20,000 miles, Russia's railway lines are vulnerable to attack.

The U.K. Defense Ministry in its daily intelligence update on Wednesday acknowledged the activist group and said it was at least the sixth incident of sabotage against Russian railway infrastructure claimed by STW since June.

STW claimed responsibility for other railway attacks, including a fallen carriage at the Oktabrsk station of the Kuibyshev railway.

The group also claimed responsibility for an incident in Amur Oblast on the Trans-Siberian Railway in June, according to TrendingNews.

https://www.newsweek.com/russian-anti-war-group-claims-behind-explosions-stop-wagons-1754898

Also, another Mollie attack in a target associated with the Russian regime today:

In Moscow on the night of October 26, an unknown person threw a Molotov cocktail through the window of the United Russia reception on Kutuzovsky Prospekt. This is reported by the telegram channel Astra without reference to the source.

The fire was extinguished by the office guards before the arrival of the Ministry of Emergency Situations to the building. According to MSK1 , the fire was not heavy.

Employees of the executive committee of United Russia told MSK1 that they would be working from home today, which the management informed them in the morning without giving reasons. “Previously, this often happened during the coronavirus pandemic, when someone got sick,” the staff said.

In September, the United Russia office was set on fire in Salavat. Then the unknown left burning tires on the porch of the building. In October, an office of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation was set on fire in the same city , allegedly by throwing a Molotov cocktail through the window of the building.

https://zona.media/news/2022/10/26/edro