Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[NOVA Green]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/winters-onset-will-change-russias-war-in-ukraine-11666608971?mod=hp_lead_pos7

Just think about all the stories we've read and videos we've seen of Russian mobiks who were dumped in some random forest position with no food, no water, no supplies, no winter clothes, barely any weapons, and virtually no contact with army command or other officers. Practically just random homeless people in the woods with the vague order to fight Ukraine. Some of these people aren't going to make it through winter while many others may decide to surrender or otherwise abandon their post.

Absolutely, although Ukraine might end up getting dinged by Human Rights groups if it suffers the same issue which it had previously where it had so many POWs, where they didn't have adequate space to house them...

Some of the stories we read during the Winter 2021 start of war almost reminded me of some WW II stories from the Battle of the Bulge.

German soldiers trying to conceal their positions and fuel sleeping under tanks to stay warm, only to get run over by their own tank units, when the vehicles unexpectedly started up and moved.

[NOVA Green]

Really good thread based upon analysis of more than 1,000 documents left from a command bunker in Kharkiv Oblast recovered following the rapid Russian retreat....

Believe you can just go the twitter page and follow the thread from there, so I don't need to clutter up my post.


https://twitter.com/saitomri/status/1585228271662166016?s=20&t=GdNqG1cn87vvW...

[NOVA Green]

Russia attempting to increase naval base capacity in Crimea...

https://twitter.com/CovertShores/status/1585190336225513472?s=20&t=GdNqG1cn8...

[NOVA Green]

Assuming this is not a "fake intercept", Russian motorized forces around Lyman are running out of vehicles and being forces to use scooters and motorcycles...

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1585338570273062912?s=20&t=GdNqG1cn...

[Hollywood]

Assuming this is not a "fake intercept", Russian motorized forces around Lyman are running out of vehicles and being forces to use scooters and motorcycles...

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1585338570273062912?s=20&t=GdNqG1cn...

It sounds like the Russians are speaking sarcastically about the situation, and the translation from Russian to English removes some context.  R2 is mocking R1 when he hears that they have no military vehicles.  R2 asks, "So to reconstitute the motorized brigade, are you going to find motors to put in bikes and scooters?"  R1 replies, "Yeah yeah yeah", because he knows the other guy is F-ing with him.  He's not answering, "yes, yes, yes". 

I the guy actually posted the link to WarTranslated.com, I'd be able to find out the context.  Most of the recordings come from the Donetsk Militia. 

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/giantcat9/status/1585375421138624512?s=20&t=XJBbDEFrBsvc...

[NOVA Green]

Assuming this is not a "fake intercept", Russian motorized forces around Lyman are running out of vehicles and being forces to use scooters and motorcycles...

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1585338570273062912?s=20&t=GdNqG1cn...

It sounds like the Russians are speaking sarcastically about the situation, and the translation from Russian to English removes some context.  R2 is mocking R1 when he hears that they have no military vehicles.  R2 asks, "So to reconstitute the motorized brigade, are you going to find motors to put in bikes and scooters?"  R1 replies, "Yeah yeah yeah", because he knows the other guy is F-ing with him.  He's not answering, "yes, yes, yes". 

I the guy actually posted the link to WarTranslated.com, I'd be able to find out the context.  Most of the recordings come from the Donetsk Militia. 

Well if what you are saying is true can totally jive with the reality is that the "militia units" from Donbass are basically not only getting screwed over in pay compared to Russian soldiers, but also getting the most s**t equipment etc.. compared to "regular" Russian soldiers.

Seems like the "voluntary" militia from Donbass not too happy when it comes to the perks that Russian "regulars" are getting, while meanwhile the Russian Mobniks are getting totally screwed compared to what the "regular" Russian forces are getting, while meanwhile even "elite" Russian forces are complaining about what they are getting.

Did I get all that right or at least 80% correct???

[Frodo]

This could be a problem:

https://twitter.com/thewarzonewire/status/1585417240614240257

The ghost of our failure in Afghanistan has come back to haunt us in Ukraine.

[Hollywood]

Assuming this is not a "fake intercept", Russian motorized forces around Lyman are running out of vehicles and being forces to use scooters and motorcycles...

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1585338570273062912?s=20&t=GdNqG1cn...

It sounds like the Russians are speaking sarcastically about the situation, and the translation from Russian to English removes some context.  R2 is mocking R1 when he hears that they have no military vehicles.  R2 asks, "So to reconstitute the motorized brigade, are you going to find motors to put in bikes and scooters?"  R1 replies, "Yeah yeah yeah", because he knows the other guy is F-ing with him.  He's not answering, "yes, yes, yes". 

I the guy actually posted the link to WarTranslated.com, I'd be able to find out the context.  Most of the recordings come from the Donetsk Militia. 

Well if what you are saying is true can totally jive with the reality is that the "militia units" from Donbass are basically not only getting screwed over in pay compared to Russian soldiers, but also getting the most s**t equipment etc.. compared to "regular" Russian soldiers.

Seems like the "voluntary" militia from Donbass not too happy when it comes to the perks that Russian "regulars" are getting, while meanwhile the Russian Mobniks are getting totally screwed compared to what the "regular" Russian forces are getting, while meanwhile even "elite" Russian forces are complaining about what they are getting.

Did I get all that right or at least 80% correct???

I think you got it about right.  I don't dispute that the DPR troops are getting screwed with pay and equipment. It's War.  Everyone is unhappy.  Russian Troops are definitely complaining.  It's not like Russian Journalists haven't been disseminated stories about poor Russian equipment, supplies, strategy, etc., but the NATO side tends to over-exaggerate these problems to absurd extents. 

The main problem for Russia is that they didn't invade Ukraine with a large enough force to overwhelm the VSU.  This became a big problem when NATO started repeatedly pumping military aid into the country.  A lot has been said about the number of Russian vehicles destroyed or captured, but the Ukrainians have lost several thousand ground vehicles (Perhaps 6,000), and its pretty obvious from the drone footage I've viewed that they are incurring huge casualties from Russian artillery and aerial bombardments.  Although I've under-estimated the NATO-backed Ukrainian Armies' ability to take on the Russians, I remain unconvinced about the Ukrainian chances of victory if Russia intends to remain in Ukraine for multiple years, sends an appropriate number of soldiers and equipment, and actually goes scorched-Earth.

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/cvetko35/status/1585544622297735168?cxt=HHwWgICzud6b_oAsAAAA

[Lord Halifax]

https://twitter.com/cvetko35/status/1585544622297735168?cxt=HHwWgICzud6b_oAsAAAA

cvetko35 seems like a very unreliable source

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/cvetko35/status/1585544622297735168?cxt=HHwWgICzud6b_oAsAAAA

cvetko35 seems like a very unreliable source

Watch Mark Feygin and Arestovych's briefing/show

[Hollywood]

https://twitter.com/cvetko35/status/1585544622297735168?cxt=HHwWgICzud6b_oAsAAAA

cvetko35 seems like a very unreliable source

The twitter post is 100% Accurate.  On a Youtube program that was hosted by Ukrainian Journalist, Mark Feygin, Aleksey Arestovych said the situation was deteriorating for Ukrainian Forces in Kherson.  
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Iop14fjdhm4

Over the past week, Russia was able to easily defend their positions around Kherson from a Ukrainian attack that primarily focused from Kravi-Rogg direction.  They destroyed numerous tanks, armored vehicles, and men.  In contrast to the reports that Russia was planning to evacuate their troops to the east bank of the Dneiper, it now appears that their forces have built strong defensive positions around Kherson.

[Hollywood]

https://twitter.com/cvetko35/status/1585544622297735168?cxt=HHwWgICzud6b_oAsAAAA

cvetko35 seems like a very unreliable source

Watch Mark Feygin and Arestovych's briefing/show

I just posted the link to Feygin's channel, but I doubt it will be useful to anyone that can't speak Ukrainian.  Great Find. 

It's only within the last several hours that detailed battle information, as well as graphic videos and pictures, have been published by the Russians. 

[Torie]

This thread has gotten to the point where I can get a sense of the ebb and flow of the war merely by seeing who’s posting without having to read the content of the post. That is a most efficient way to communicate. Well done.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1585660595705192451
https://mobile.twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1585667383309602816

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1585517194296827904

[jaichind]

The pattern of Russian missile attacks are interesting.  What they seem to be doing is to launch a large   barrage to take down a good part of the energy grid, then wait a couple of days for Ukraine to (mostly successfully) repair the system, and then repeat the process.

It seems Russia is doing what the Chinese call 投石問路 (Throwing a rock to figure out the road forward) which is an ancient Chinese thief tactic of throwing a rock into a guarded household compound and see the reaction to get a sense of the nature of defenses inside the targeted compound.

Russia seems to be using these attacks to learn about the nature of the Ukraine energy grid system to identify weak points by observing the scale and nature of the repairs to get the grid back up.

[Hindsight was 2020]

The pattern of Russian missile attacks are interesting.  What they seem to be doing is to launch a large   barrage to take down a good part of the energy grid, then wait a couple of days for Ukraine to (mostly successfully) repair the system, and then repeat the process.

It seems Russia is doing what the Chinese call 投石問路 (Throwing a rock to figure out the road forward) which is an ancient Chinese thief tactic of throwing a rock into a guarded household compound and see the reaction to get a sense of the nature of defenses inside the targeted compound.

Russia seems to be using these attacks to learn about the nature of the Ukraine energy grid system to identify weak points by observing the scale and nature of the repairs to get the grid back up.

“Interesting” is one way to describe war crimes

[jaichind]

The pattern of Russian missile attacks are interesting.  What they seem to be doing is to launch a large   barrage to take down a good part of the energy grid, then wait a couple of days for Ukraine to (mostly successfully) repair the system, and then repeat the process.

It seems Russia is doing what the Chinese call 投石問路 (Throwing a rock to figure out the road forward) which is an ancient Chinese thief tactic of throwing a rock into a guarded household compound and see the reaction to get a sense of the nature of defenses inside the targeted compound.

Russia seems to be using these attacks to learn about the nature of the Ukraine energy grid system to identify weak points by observing the scale and nature of the repairs to get the grid back up.

“Interesting” is one way to describe war crimes

A is fair in love and war.  And is this not merely the same thing as 1999 NATO-Serbia ?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/inatl/longterm/balkans/stories/belgrade052599.htm

"NATO Warplanes Jolt Yugoslav Power Grid"

[Lord Halifax]

A is fair in love and war.

BS

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Something does not switch category from "war crime" to "not a war crime" just because of the party who did it.

[Torie]

To my mind, the most likely way the Ukraine war ends, is when Putin runs out of money to finance it. When he sees that as a looming possibility, he will bend. That entails the West staying the course, to get to that looming possibility. How long is that course? I was wondering and so googled around and found the article below.

One aspect that I had not focused on is that a severe recession means lower oil prices, and thus less money for Putin.

https://www.wilsoncenter.org/blog-post/putin-can-afford-least-two-more-years-war

[Hindsight was 2020]

A is fair in love and war.

BS

Dude is a complete psychopath my god 🙄

[jaichind]

To my mind, the most likely way the Ukraine war ends, is when Putin runs out of money to finance it. When he sees that as a looming possibility, he will bend. That entails the West staying the course, to get to that looming possibility. How long is that course? I was wondering and so googled around and found the article below.

One aspect that I had not focused on is that a severe recession means lower oil prices, and thus less money for Putin.

https://www.wilsoncenter.org/blog-post/putin-can-afford-least-two-more-years-war

A worldwide recession leading to a fall in energy prices is for sure a risk for Putin and a reasonable consequence of his energy brinkmanship with EU.  On the flip side energy prices crashed in 2020 and Russia's fiscal situation was able to survive it.  The crash in energy prices in 2020 was not just the worldwide recession due to COVID-19 but also a price war between Russia and Saudi Arabia.  This is why Putin is going out of his way to form a united front with Saudi Arabia last few months.  Saudi Arabia's relationship breakdown with USA and now wanting to join BRICS is part of the success of Putin's diplomatic maneuvers.  The USA response to counter this is clear: USA-Canada should go on a massive hydrocarbon new deal to drive world energy prices down on top of the likely fall next year on the back of a certain worldwide recession triggered by inflation crisis in the collective West.