Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[jaichind]

https://www.cnn.com/2022/01/23/europe/german-navy-chief-resignation-intl/index.html

"German navy chief resigns after suggesting Putin 'deserved respect'"

[jaichind]

https://twitter.com/MarquardtA/status/1487534551513587717

It's getting harder for me to understand the Ukrainians. I wonder if their goal early on was to drum up the beats of war (which is not hard with Russia on their border), sends them military equipment which they like, but they want NATO to make some concession to Russia that doesn't involve them and allows them to escape conflict.

They're at war now. Even if they've by fact conceded Crimea they're still at real war skirmish in Donbass. So they're already at war, why are they saying such info is causing panic and fear?

Because all this war talk is already hitting the Ukraine economy.  The Ukraine CDS is already shooting up.  So if they are not convinced that there will be a Russian invasion soon they clearly will be angry that anyone else saying that there will be such an invasion when such talk is hitting their economy. 

[jaichind]

So if they are not convinced that there will be a Russian invasion soon they clearly will be angry that anyone else saying that there will be such an invasion when such talk is hitting their economy.  

Then what do they think is happening? Do they think all these men in uniform on their border is they want to see the sights of southern Belarus?

I'm sure that sucks for the economy.  So is the Covid pandemic. It's an outside force imposed on you that like it or not, you have to deal with. There's an NPR interview with the Ukrainian Foreign Minister whose goal was to say the U.S. and Ukraine are not saying different things, this is information warfare. He strongly reacted to a Reuters report that the Russians had moved blood (for wounded) to the border...all the while send us weapons, impose sanctions now including on Nord Stream 2.

What Ukraine wants is for the USA to pressure Germany to cancel Nord Stream 2 w/o any conflict.  They clearly want to play up the Russian threat to Ukraine so the USA can pressure Germany but clearly, they do not want that pressure to lead to a collapse of Ukraine's economy.  So Ukraine needs some tension but not too much.   I do not think Russia has any plans to invade.  They have long-term plans to roll back NATO and could get more aggressive in a few years if they do not see progress on that.  In the short run, they just want Ukraine to start talks with the breakaway Republics as per the Minsk agreement, and for NATO to acknowledge their grievances have some merit.  None of this indicates to me Russia have any real plans for any military offensive on the short run.

[jaichind]

https://twitter.com/MarquardtA/status/1487534551513587717

Maybe it's time for a coup in Ukraine that will be more aligned with USA goals.  Memories of  RVN Diem 1963.

[jaichind]

Germany canceling Nord Stream 2 without any conflict is highly unlikely. The U.S. Senate in fact just voted such a proposal down to sanction companies involved in Nord Stream 2 under intense lobbying from the Biden administration, so the U.S. are not on board either. There's wrangling going on under a bill to help defeat the previous one about Nord Stream 2, but it's probable if it's too aggressive and the Germans raise a fit Biden would veto, and that's even considering it passes the Senate and House. And right now the Senate only has 49 Democrats to 50 Republicans with Lujan in the hospital following a stroke.

So what is Ukraine's next plan diplomatically? They cannot control the foreign policy of the United States of America or the Federal Republic of Germany.

Well, I agree Germany canceled Nord Stream 2 is unlikely given their foolish policy of shutting down their nuke plants.  I think what Ukraine is thinking of is in return for accepting Nord Stream 2 operating there is a massive cash infusion from the collective West to compensate Ukraine for losing its transit state status and its inability to blackmail Germany to give them gas for free.

My impression is that during these Biden-Zelensky talks where they disagreed on the scale and scope of the Russian threat Zelensky did ask for a boatload of cash from Biden who then failed to commit to anything in terms of economic aid for Ukraine.

This entire situation sets up some very interesting game theory situations and it will be fun to see what the outcome will be.

[jaichind]

If that's their plan, that's a f#cking stupid plan, because how does that stop Russia from invading? Were the Ukrainians planning a military operation to blow up the pipeline and if they're paid, they won't do it? Nord Stream 2 pipeline coming into operation is the fait accompli, so the Ukrainians are asking to be paid off to allow something that was going to happen anyway, but none of that has anything to deal with the 100k+ Russian soldiers in the east of their country, Crimea, and the Ukraine-Belarus border.

But your starting point is that the Russian build-up is proof of some sort of invasion.  I disagree.  I read the Russian buildup as a defensive measure.  I think Russia views  Nord Stream 2 coming online will mean Ukraine will get more desperate and try to start something with the breakaway the Republics to try to create a crisis.  The Russian buildup under stuck a framework could be read as a measure to deter possible aggressive moves from Ukraine and pressure Ukraine to open talks with the breakaway Republics as per Minsk Agreement.  So under this way of looking at things Ukraine knows there is no invasion and when the invasion threat is pushed so high that their economy is impacted they get angry.  They want enough tension to shut down Nord Steam 2 or get cash from the West but not so much that their economy starts falling apart.

[jaichind]

Re: cancelling NS2

Sure but I will argue part of that is also Germany shutting down the nuke plants which means that Germany is now much more dependent on Russian energy. 

I am reading about frantic USA efforts to try to route LNG to Europe in case of a decrease of Russian energy exports to Europe.  Of course, doing that would just make the USA inflation situation even worse.  Biden has played himself into a corner.

[jaichind]

https://twitter.com/HawleyMO/status/1488926785848946692

The crux of his argument lies in the odd assertion that the US cannot fulfil its obligations in Europe while also countering the increasing military threat posed by China. I thought the US was able to win a world war with major theaters in Europe and Asia. Maybe I'm just losing my marbles but, didn't the US also work to contain Communism in Europe and Asia during the Cold War? Didn't that effort involve massive military commitments in both regions?

The correlation of forces in the world is not as favorable to the USA as it was in the Cold War.  And even in the Cold War, the USA roped in the PRC as a de facto ally against the USSR. 

His argument mostly matches my own proposal for the USA strategy which is to do everything to break the PRC-Russia alliance.  If that means demarkating a Russian sphere of influence that sounds reasonable given Russia's Great Power status. The USA should seek to be on friendlier terms with every Great Power in the world than they are with each other.  That is how the USA will maintain its relative power in an era where its relative strength has dimished since the 1990s.

[jaichind]

Minsk was dead within a month of its signature as no one lived up to it. It's a failed treaty.

 

You are getting Minsk I mixed up with Minsk II. Minsk II which was signed in Feb 2015 which did hold up in terms of ending fighting does have within it

"Constitutional reform in Ukraine, with a new constitution to come into effect by the end of 2015, the key element of which is decentralisation (taking into account peculiarities of particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, agreed with representatives of these districts), and also approval of permanent legislation on the special status of particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts in accordance with the measures spelt out in the attached footnote,[note 1] by the end of 2015."

[jaichind]

 
I agree. The problem is that if you concede to Russia its desire to remake the international order into one akin to the Concert of Europe, where great powers carve up the world into spheres of influence according to their strategic interest, abrogating smaller nations' right to democratic self-determination, with noninterference in domestic human rights issues as a fundamental principle, then you're already pretty much conceding what China's vision of the global order is also. What would there be to fight about?

So your vision for USA foreign policy is really just a Western Left version of Jihad.  This sounds like a recipe for eternal conflict with a resonable risk of a Greater Power war.

[jaichind]

The NATO and U.S. response to Russia was leaked to a Spanish newspaper, and the U.S. said it was real. Not much for the Russians in it.

https://www.politico.eu/article/us-nato-accuse-russia-provocative-troop-missile-deployments/

So what is this magical diplomacy answer the Ukrainians think will stop war? The Russians are not giving away anything and the Americans/NATO are not giving away anything.

Not so sure there is not much for Russians in it.  The key sentence is

"The United States continues to firmly support NATO's Open Door Policy, and believes that the NRC is the appropriate forum for discussions of that issue,"

Note the use of "continues" weakens this position since it implies it is a historical carryover versus a core belief.  Also " believes that the NRC is the appropriate forum for discussions of that issue" implies that this issue NATO expansion is a topic of future discussion and that the USA could be open to some sort of compromise. 

Clearly it is not the USA backing down but it does leave the door open for some give and take in future discussions.

[jaichind]

I think the collective West is splitting into the Anglosphere (US UK) and the Carolingian Empire (Germany France Italy) on the Russia issue.  The Carolingian Empire will try to go for a deal.  It will be fun to see the Carolingian Empire does come up with a deal with Putin what the Anglosphere reaction will be.

[jaichind]

https://twitter.com/jaketapper/status/1490804393813450758

I can argue that Germany cannot commit to this. Because if they do they that gives Ukraine an incentive to do their own false flag incident to trigger such an outcome (shut down Nord Stream 2)

[jaichind]

I think the collective West is splitting into the Anglosphere (US UK) and the Carolingian Empire (Germany France Italy) on the Russia issue.  The Carolingian Empire will try to go for a deal.  It will be fun to see the Carolingian Empire does come up with a deal with Putin what the Anglosphere reaction will be.

Or, y'know, we could just call it the Euro-American Split. It's been a long time coming.

Well the Baltics are clearly on the side of the Anglosphere as is Poland and most likely Romania so it is not just Euro-American as some East European countries are on the Anglosphere side

[jaichind]

Theory: Russian invasion takes place during the Superbowl so the maximum number of Americans are preoccupied

[jaichind]

https://www.marketscreener.com/news/latest/RUSSIAN-MILITARY-SAYS-IT-DETECTED-U-S-SUBMARINE-NEAR-KURIL-ISLA-8230--38061752/

"RUSSIAN MILITARY SAYS IT DETECTED U.S. SUBMARINE NEAR KURIL ISLANDS WITHIN RUSSIA'S TERRITORY - IFX"

[jaichind]

https://www.timesofisrael.com/ukraine-leader-says-warnings-of-imminent-russian-invasion-stoking-panic/

"Ukraine leader says warnings of imminent Russian invasion stoking ‘panic’"

Zelensky demands proof of Moscow’s attack plans, decries intelligence reports as ‘only provoking panic and not helping us’

He should strike back by saying he has intelligence that shows a Mexico invasion of the USA is imminent.

[jaichind]

Scholz plans to be in Kyiv on Monday and Moscow on Tuesday.  I suspect this most recent surge of war talk is an attempt to get him to call off the Moscow leg.  We will see what develops next couple of days with respect to his trip.

[jaichind]

This is higher than I thought (34% correct.)  I guess it is in the news more recently does help.  I like how some of the guesses are in the North Sea.  There also seems to be a cluster around Belorus so a bunch of people did correctly catch on to the fact that Ukraine is next to Russia but got the wrong one.

[jaichind]

Markets down this morning on war fears but erased most of its losses when Russia’s Lavrov says Putin backs continuing talks with west

[jaichind]

I would also like the USA to present at the UN evidence they have that shows Russia will invade imminently.  They did it in the Cuban Missile Crisis, why not now ?   

[jaichind]

Zelensky should challenge Putin to a 1-on-1 KVN dual to settle this.

[jaichind]

There is no doubts about it, and the Russians have never even disputed it. It's the assessments about "imminent" invasion/taking Kiev/specific dates that need at least *some* evidence. It's one thing to say "Russia has enough military to take Kiev in 2 days" and "Russia is about/likely to invade Kiev any time soon". Btw, if we invade we'll take Kiev in 24 hours  - Russian Bear's assessment!

For Russia to take Kiev in 24 hours I think they have to attack from Belarus

[jaichind]

https://www.euronews.com/2022/02/15/ukraine-crisis-russian-mps-to-vote-on-recognising-separatist-held-areas-in-east-as-indepen

"Russian MPs urge Putin to recognise two separatist-held areas in eastern Ukraine as independen"

[jaichind]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-15/russia-returning-some-troops-to-base-after-drills-interfax-says

"Russia Says Some Troops Are Returning to Base After Drills"

US equity futures up 1.3% on this news.