Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[DaleCooper]

Lol, people are just now figuring out that jaichind is a disgusting creep?

[Hollywood]

To my mind, the most likely way the Ukraine war ends, is when Putin runs out of money to finance it. When he sees that as a looming possibility, he will bend. That entails the West staying the course, to get to that looming possibility. How long is that course? I was wondering and so googled around and found the article below.

One aspect that I had not focused on is that a severe recession means lower oil prices, and thus less money for Putin.

https://www.wilsoncenter.org/blog-post/putin-can-afford-least-two-more-years-war

A worldwide recession leading to a fall in energy prices is for sure a risk for Putin and a reasonable consequence of his energy brinkmanship with EU.  On the flip side energy prices crashed in 2020 and Russia's fiscal situation was able to survive it.  The crash in energy prices in 2020 was not just the worldwide recession due to COVID-19 but also a price war between Russia and Saudi Arabia.  This is why Putin is going out of his way to form a united front with Saudi Arabia last few months.  Saudi Arabia's relationship breakdown with USA and now wanting to join BRICS is part of the success of Putin's diplomatic maneuvers.  The USA response to counter this is clear: USA-Canada should go on a massive hydrocarbon new deal to drive world energy prices down on top of the likely fall next year on the back of a certain worldwide recession triggered by inflation crisis in the collective West.     

I'm pretty sure the relationship between the USA and Saudi Arabia is irretrievably broken.  Today, I noticed that a propaganda campaign had been launched to disparage Saudi Arabia, and I presume the government, or political party, is behind it.  In addition to articles, I saw television commercials and heard radio ads, attacking Saudi Arabia for restricting women's rights and harming the United States with its oil policy. The television commercial blamed Saudi Arabia for 9/11, and presented images of all the hijackers that originated from the country.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Lol, people are just now figuring out that jaichind is a disgusting creep?

Figuring out that jaichind is a skin-crawlingly depraved human being to a degree unrivaled by anyone else currently on the forum is liking figuring out that you're in love with your wife of fifty years. No matter how many times it happens there's always something new to remind you.

[Beet]

jaichind is right that attacks on the enemy's electricity infrastructure is not exactly unexpected in a war. As has been pointed out, we did the same thing in Serbia 1999. I believe NATO airstrikes caused the power to go out in Tripoli in 2011 as well. Frankly, there are much worse things being done by both sides here.

[DaleCooper]

Lol, people are just now figuring out that jaichind is a disgusting creep?

Figuring out that jaichind is a skin-crawlingly depraved human being to a degree unrivaled by anyone else currently on the forum is liking figuring out that you're in love with your wife of fifty years. No matter how many times it happens there's always something new to remind you.

I guess since I haven't been around that long he doesn't stand out to me as anything other than a boring guy notable only for his degeneracy. (I would go so far as to say he's almost as boring as he is depraved, lol.) I guess he occasionally posts interesting election data, but even that is usually selective to push whatever narrative he's going for in the given moment. He's one of the only people on my ignore list, and absolutely nothing of value is lost from not seeing his posts.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

jaichind is right that attacks on the enemy's electricity infrastructure is not exactly unexpected in a war. As has been pointed out, we did the same thing in Serbia 1999. I believe NATO airstrikes caused the power to go out in Tripoli in 2011 as well. Frankly, there are much worse things being done by both sides here.

War is ugly. The only main way we can help stem war, long-term, is by preserving post-WWII norms, and that is through careful management of our foreign policy relations and coalition building with various partners and other states, no matter how evil you think they are...what matters most is a stable global picture. Ukraine is just one piece in the puzzle.

[Beet]

jaichind is right that attacks on the enemy's electricity infrastructure is not exactly unexpected in a war. As has been pointed out, we did the same thing in Serbia 1999. I believe NATO airstrikes caused the power to go out in Tripoli in 2011 as well. Frankly, there are much worse things being done by both sides here.

War is ugly. The only main way we can help stem war, long-term, is by preserving post-WWII norms, and that is through careful management of our foreign policy relations and coalition building with various partners and other states, no matter how evil you think they are...what matters most is a stable global picture. Ukraine is just one piece in the puzzle.

I think Biden has handled it exceptionally well. Russia is being humiliated without the cost of a single American solider, and without escalating into direct conflict. However, it has taken an economic toll on the world which I fear the Republicans will benefit from in November. If they ride the economic turmoil all the way to 2024, especially if Trump returns, it could end up seriously degrading our democracy. War also generates high emotions that distorts thinking.

jaichind, for example, is probably one of the top contributors (if not the top) on this forum on elections in Asia, such as India, Japan, and Taiwan, which as a psephology forum forum is theoretically our main purpose... but look at the way he is attacked in the most hysterical manner. All in all though, this war is pretty tame compared to what it would be if the U.S. and Russia went to war directly.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

jaichind is right that attacks on the enemy's electricity infrastructure is not exactly unexpected in a war. As has been pointed out, we did the same thing in Serbia 1999. I believe NATO airstrikes caused the power to go out in Tripoli in 2011 as well. Frankly, there are much worse things being done by both sides here.

War is ugly. The only main way we can help stem war, long-term, is by preserving post-WWII norms, and that is through careful management of our foreign policy relations and coalition building with various partners and other states, no matter how evil you think they are...what matters most is a stable global picture. Ukraine is just one piece in the puzzle.

I think Biden has handled it exceptionally well. Russia is being humiliated without the cost of a single American solider, and without escalating into direct conflict. However, it has taken an economic toll on the world which I fear the Republicans will benefit from in November. If they ride the economic turmoil all the way to 2024, especially if Trump returns, it could end up seriously degrading our democracy. War also generates high emotions that distorts thinking.

jaichind, for example, is probably one of the top contributors (if not the top) on this forum on elections in Asia, such as India, Japan, and Taiwan, which as a psephology forum forum is theoretically our main purpose... but look at the way he is attacked in the most hysterical manner. All in all though, this war is pretty tame compared to what it would be if the U.S. and Russia went to war directly.

I agree on all counts.

[Torie]

To my mind, the most likely way the Ukraine war ends, is when Putin runs out of money to finance it. When he sees that as a looming possibility, he will bend. That entails the West staying the course, to get to that looming possibility. How long is that course? I was wondering and so googled around and found the article below.

One aspect that I had not focused on is that a severe recession means lower oil prices, and thus less money for Putin.

https://www.wilsoncenter.org/blog-post/putin-can-afford-least-two-more-years-war

A worldwide recession leading to a fall in energy prices is for sure a risk for Putin and a reasonable consequence of his energy brinkmanship with EU.  On the flip side energy prices crashed in 2020 and Russia's fiscal situation was able to survive it.  The crash in energy prices in 2020 was not just the worldwide recession due to COVID-19 but also a price war between Russia and Saudi Arabia.  This is why Putin is going out of his way to form a united front with Saudi Arabia last few months.  Saudi Arabia's relationship breakdown with USA and now wanting to join BRICS is part of the success of Putin's diplomatic maneuvers.  The USA response to counter this is clear: USA-Canada should go on a massive hydrocarbon new deal to drive world energy prices down on top of the likely fall next year on the back of a certain worldwide recession triggered by inflation crisis in the collective West.    

Yes, the West should go hard green, while simultaneously drill baby drill, frack baby frack, and nuke power plants nuke, until the autocratic petro states are no longer capable of blackmail, and preferably bankrupted. And at the end, with so much green energy, perhaps the existential threat of global warming might be mitigated some.

Yes, it will be subsidy city in the interim, to get to the promise land. If I were in the libertarian church, this would probably get me excommunicated once and for all.

On this one, we are blood brothers J. Right?

[NOVA Green]

This thread has gotten to the point where I can get a sense of the ebb and flow of the war merely by seeing who’s posting without having to read the content of the post. That is a most efficient way to communicate. Well done.

Well, I tend to have somewhat fairly posting habits regardless, where I tend to post generally on a daily basis, usually in the PM PST with some exceptions when I have either work furloughs or occasionally have time to do a quick update in the AM before heading out to the factory.

So hopefully, you are not including my posts as a key part of the metrics you are generating for the latest PowerPoint slide update.

[NOVA Green]

So a few random updates from The Washington Post:

The suspected Russian spy arrested in Norway this week attended a seminar on hybrid threats recently that included a scenario about responding to a pipeline explosion, according to Norwegian media, a coordinator for the group that hosted the event, and a photograph from the event. Paivi Mattila, a professor at Laurea University of Applied Sciences in Finland who coordinates the EU-HYBNET program, told The Washington Post that the suspected spy attended the event.

Ukraine has moved troops to its north to defend against threats from Belarus, Brig. Gen. Oleksii Hromov, a top official in the Ukrainian Army’s general staff, said at a briefing on Thursday. The Russian military has been conducting exercises and launched 10 Iranian-made attack drones from Belarusian soil this week, Hromov said, adding that there was no indication the Russian or Belarusian militaries were imminently forming an offensive group there.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/10/27/russia-ukraine-war-latest-updates/

[NOVA Green]

Russia moving close to passing their version of "don't say gay" bill...

In this case looks like obviously it targets "gay porn", but from the little snippet below might be so open ended to allow gvt shutdowns on LGBTQ print media as well?

Any insights from Atlas Hive on what this actually means for the LGBTQ+ Community in Russia?

The State Duma "unanimously" adopted in the first reading two bills on "propaganda of non-traditional sexual relations." This was reported by the press service of the lower house.

The first project involves fines of up to 10 million rubles and expulsion from the country for foreigners for "disseminating" or "imposing" information "aimed at forming non-traditional sexual attitudes" or "arousing interest in such relationships."

With the second bill, the deputies decided to prescribe the inadmissibility of "materials promoting non-traditional sexual relations" in the legislation regulating advertising, cinema and the work of the media. They also proposed using a special "code" to give adults access to content with "propaganda of non-traditional sexual relations" on paid streaming services.

https://zona.media/news/2022/10/27/prpgnd

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Russia moving close to passing their version of "don't say gay" bill...

In this case looks like obviously it targets "gay porn", but from the little snippet below might be so open ended to allow gvt shutdowns on LGBTQ print media as well?

Any insights from Atlas Hive on what this actually means for the LGBTQ+ Community in Russia?

The State Duma "unanimously" adopted in the first reading two bills on "propaganda of non-traditional sexual relations." This was reported by the press service of the lower house.

The first project involves fines of up to 10 million rubles and expulsion from the country for foreigners for "disseminating" or "imposing" information "aimed at forming non-traditional sexual attitudes" or "arousing interest in such relationships."

With the second bill, the deputies decided to prescribe the inadmissibility of "materials promoting non-traditional sexual relations" in the legislation regulating advertising, cinema and the work of the media. They also proposed using a special "code" to give adults access to content with "propaganda of non-traditional sexual relations" on paid streaming services.

https://zona.media/news/2022/10/27/prpgnd

I suspect this will result in more Russian anime fans using VPNs.

[NOVA Green]

Another lazy Russian cigarette smoking incident...

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1585574299691352065?s=20&t=5sLPGY...

[Hollywood]

Russia moving close to passing their version of "don't say gay" bill...

In this case looks like obviously it targets "gay porn", but from the little snippet below might be so open ended to allow gvt shutdowns on LGBTQ print media as well?

Any insights from Atlas Hive on what this actually means for the LGBTQ+ Community in Russia?

The State Duma "unanimously" adopted in the first reading two bills on "propaganda of non-traditional sexual relations." This was reported by the press service of the lower house.

The first project involves fines of up to 10 million rubles and expulsion from the country for foreigners for "disseminating" or "imposing" information "aimed at forming non-traditional sexual attitudes" or "arousing interest in such relationships."

With the second bill, the deputies decided to prescribe the inadmissibility of "materials promoting non-traditional sexual relations" in the legislation regulating advertising, cinema and the work of the media. They also proposed using a special "code" to give adults access to content with "propaganda of non-traditional sexual relations" on paid streaming services.

https://zona.media/news/2022/10/27/prpgnd

You're extremely uninformed about the Florida Parental Rights Act.  Republicans gained support for the bill by asking people to be review the statute outside of grocery stores, so we could expose the Democrats for lying about the whole 'Don't Say Gay" BS.

I won't make any judgments about the Russian Law until I can read it in English.  I certainly don't trust  the media to provide a summary of the law given their propensity to lie about any legislation related to LGBTQ Rights.       

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

Russia is murdering soldiers who desert:

Russian’s Vladimir Putin sparked the wrath of his own people by drafting hundreds of thousands to join the war against Ukraine, and now it seems some of those men were sent not to fight the so-called “enemy” but to “snuff out” any of the Russian troops who dare to retreat.

Ukrainian intelligence on Thursday released an audio recording that appears to capture in disturbing detail the mayhem and internal rifts between Russian troops on the battlefield. In the five-minute clip, described as an intercepted phone conversation between a Russian soldier and his wife, the man says he and the other men in his unit are a comfortable distance from the actual fighting.

“They moved us back to the second line, there’s shooting somewhere ahead of us, but we’re back here for now in the trenches,” he says, before boasting that he’d been lucky and found a “Rosneft jacket covered in blood, but warm.”

“They brought the inmates here... from prison. But they led them somewhere way up front. And we’re sitting here as a retreat-blocking detachment, . If someone runs back, we snuff them out.”

“What a nightmare,” his wife says.

“That’s how we have it set up. We sit on the second line, guarding the first. Behind us, there’s another line. If you go that way, you also won’t make it. So it’s impossible to run away. They shoot their own.”

“If someone goes [that way], you need to wipe him out,” he said.

[NOVA Green]

Russia is murdering soldiers who desert:

Russian’s Vladimir Putin sparked the wrath of his own people by drafting hundreds of thousands to join the war against Ukraine, and now it seems some of those men were sent not to fight the so-called “enemy” but to “snuff out” any of the Russian troops who dare to retreat.

Ukrainian intelligence on Thursday released an audio recording that appears to capture in disturbing detail the mayhem and internal rifts between Russian troops on the battlefield. In the five-minute clip, described as an intercepted phone conversation between a Russian soldier and his wife, the man says he and the other men in his unit are a comfortable distance from the actual fighting.

“They moved us back to the second line, there’s shooting somewhere ahead of us, but we’re back here for now in the trenches,” he says, before boasting that he’d been lucky and found a “Rosneft jacket covered in blood, but warm.”

“They brought the inmates here... from prison. But they led them somewhere way up front. And we’re sitting here as a retreat-blocking detachment, . If someone runs back, we snuff them out.”

“What a nightmare,” his wife says.

“That’s how we have it set up. We sit on the second line, guarding the first. Behind us, there’s another line. If you go that way, you also won’t make it. So it’s impossible to run away. They shoot their own.”

“If someone goes [that way], you need to wipe him out,” he said.

This is a classic Soviet WW II style scene.

The system of the Political Commissars did not disappear overnight...

Multiple other reports, including those posted on this very thread show how Russia is using Mobniks as "Front-Liners", with more experienced troops "Second-Liners", and even taking most seasoned troops further back as a "Third-Line of Defense".

Russian military doctrine is such even in 2022 they are more than willing to kill their own soldiers for desertion from the front lines, and effectively use predominately involuntary draftees as cannon fodder to buy time to prevent Ukrainian advances before Winter comes...

[Frodo]

Russia is murdering soldiers who desert:

Russian’s Vladimir Putin sparked the wrath of his own people by drafting hundreds of thousands to join the war against Ukraine, and now it seems some of those men were sent not to fight the so-called “enemy” but to “snuff out” any of the Russian troops who dare to retreat.

Ukrainian intelligence on Thursday released an audio recording that appears to capture in disturbing detail the mayhem and internal rifts between Russian troops on the battlefield. In the five-minute clip, described as an intercepted phone conversation between a Russian soldier and his wife, the man says he and the other men in his unit are a comfortable distance from the actual fighting.

“They moved us back to the second line, there’s shooting somewhere ahead of us, but we’re back here for now in the trenches,” he says, before boasting that he’d been lucky and found a “Rosneft jacket covered in blood, but warm.”

“They brought the inmates here... from prison. But they led them somewhere way up front. And we’re sitting here as a retreat-blocking detachment, . If someone runs back, we snuff them out.”

“What a nightmare,” his wife says.

“That’s how we have it set up. We sit on the second line, guarding the first. Behind us, there’s another line. If you go that way, you also won’t make it. So it’s impossible to run away. They shoot their own.”

“If someone goes [that way], you need to wipe him out,” he said.

This is a classic Soviet WW II style scene.

The system of the Political Commissars did not disappear overnight...

Multiple other reports, including those posted on this very thread show how Russia is using Mobniks as "Front-Liners", with more experienced troops "Second-Liners", and even taking most seasoned troops further back as a "Third-Line of Defense".

Russian military doctrine is such even in 2022 they are more than willing to kill their own soldiers for desertion from the front lines, and effectively use predominately involuntary draftees as cannon fodder to buy time to prevent Ukrainian advances before Winter comes...

I wonder if Putin's regime is having its conscripts watch 'Enemy at the Gates' to put them into the desired mindset:

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Russia moving close to passing their version of "don't say gay" bill...

In this case looks like obviously it targets "gay porn", but from the little snippet below might be so open ended to allow gvt shutdowns on LGBTQ print media as well?

Any insights from Atlas Hive on what this actually means for the LGBTQ+ Community in Russia?

The State Duma "unanimously" adopted in the first reading two bills on "propaganda of non-traditional sexual relations." This was reported by the press service of the lower house.

The first project involves fines of up to 10 million rubles and expulsion from the country for foreigners for "disseminating" or "imposing" information "aimed at forming non-traditional sexual attitudes" or "arousing interest in such relationships."

With the second bill, the deputies decided to prescribe the inadmissibility of "materials promoting non-traditional sexual relations" in the legislation regulating advertising, cinema and the work of the media. They also proposed using a special "code" to give adults access to content with "propaganda of non-traditional sexual relations" on paid streaming services.

https://zona.media/news/2022/10/27/prpgnd

IMO the omission of "explicit content" or "pornography" suggests (to me) that it is not directly primarily at gay porn. They do mention streaming services, but I suspect the targets here are shows with LGBT+ characters on Netflix etc.

[Person Man]

Russia moving close to passing their version of "don't say gay" bill...

In this case looks like obviously it targets "gay porn", but from the little snippet below might be so open ended to allow gvt shutdowns on LGBTQ print media as well?

Any insights from Atlas Hive on what this actually means for the LGBTQ+ Community in Russia?

The State Duma "unanimously" adopted in the first reading two bills on "propaganda of non-traditional sexual relations." This was reported by the press service of the lower house.

The first project involves fines of up to 10 million rubles and expulsion from the country for foreigners for "disseminating" or "imposing" information "aimed at forming non-traditional sexual attitudes" or "arousing interest in such relationships."

With the second bill, the deputies decided to prescribe the inadmissibility of "materials promoting non-traditional sexual relations" in the legislation regulating advertising, cinema and the work of the media. They also proposed using a special "code" to give adults access to content with "propaganda of non-traditional sexual relations" on paid streaming services.

https://zona.media/news/2022/10/27/prpgnd

Could “non-traditional sexual attitudes” be interpreted to mean things like interracial marriage/dating?

[jaichind]

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2022/10/26/business/electricity-bills-cut/

"Japan to cut household electricity bills by 20% to fight inflation"

Just like in Germany, this will help Putin artificially increase the energy demand.  The solution to high prices is high prices.  Japan is short-circuiting the pricing mechanism.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Tendar/status/1585949955843182592

[Torie]

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2022/10/26/business/electricity-bills-cut/

"Japan to cut household electricity bills by 20% to fight inflation"

Just like in Germany, this will help Putin artificially increase the energy demand.  The solution to high prices is high prices.  Japan is short-circuiting the pricing mechanism.

The distortions of supply due to war or other such shocks to the system can justify a system of rationing to avoid undue hardship to those with less resources to absorb the shock. If I were the guy in charge, I for example would order the sh**tting down of second homes (or cut off their energy supply), ditto for indoor stadiums in the winter, and other such measures. One could also step up rates  as consumption levels rise. All the rooms in the house don't need to be heated all the time.

I don't know why the Pubs are not bashing Biden and the Dems more for not having a policy to be able to step up oil production as a national security issue. Drill  and pipeline and cap to be ready for a rainy day. Just going in that direction in a serious way would brings Saudi Arabia to its knees.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/ChuckPfarrer/status/1585982898955440129

[CumbrianLefty]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Tendar/status/1585949955843182592

This one seems to have bitten the dust.