Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Unless Ukraine has a way to diffuse the explosives on the dam before detonation, they would probably benefit from at least trying to negotiate with Russia that they won't attempt to pursue them across or seize the dam for now. Russia keeps Crimea's water, Ukraine preserves the dam and the settlements downstream, and can shift their focus to Zaporizhzhia. Fording the Dnieper in Kherson isn't like the Oskil in Kharkiv. It's bigger, better defended, and more resource intensive. The AFU is better off pushing south from the east where they already control both sides of the river.

Of course this would be a problem later if Ukraine continues to make progress in the south, but it makes sense for now. Both sides have reasons to keep the dam intact.

In any case, it's not clear whether Russia intends to blow the dam no matter what after they retreat across or whether they only intend to if Ukraine attempts to seize it, so it might not matter either way.

If Russia were the ones advancing, would you blow the damn?  I'd definitely blow the damn.  On the 2nd day of the war, Zelensky blew up a damn to stop the Russian advance on Kyiv, and a few villages were flooded as a result.  https://www.npr.org/2022/09/06/1121201310/ukraine-flooded-village-dam-blown-up

In 1940, the Dutch opened the dikes and flooded parts of their country in order to try to slow the Germans. Starting floods for military reasons has a long precedent in history.

[Hollywood]

Unless Ukraine has a way to diffuse the explosives on the dam before detonation, they would probably benefit from at least trying to negotiate with Russia that they won't attempt to pursue them across or seize the dam for now. Russia keeps Crimea's water, Ukraine preserves the dam and the settlements downstream, and can shift their focus to Zaporizhzhia. Fording the Dnieper in Kherson isn't like the Oskil in Kharkiv. It's bigger, better defended, and more resource intensive. The AFU is better off pushing south from the east where they already control both sides of the river.

Of course this would be a problem later if Ukraine continues to make progress in the south, but it makes sense for now. Both sides have reasons to keep the dam intact.

In any case, it's not clear whether Russia intends to blow the dam no matter what after they retreat across or whether they only intend to if Ukraine attempts to seize it, so it might not matter either way.

If Russia were the ones advancing, would you blow the damn?  I'd definitely blow the damn.  On the 2nd day of the war, Zelensky blew up a damn to stop the Russian advance on Kyiv, and a few villages were flooded as a result.  https://www.npr.org/2022/09/06/1121201310/ukraine-flooded-village-dam-blown-up

In 1940, the Dutch opened the dikes and flooded parts of their country in order to try to slow the Germans. Starting floods for military reasons has a long precedent in history.

You're Correct. 

"In 1941, as Nazi German troops swept through Soviet-era Ukraine, Josef Stalin's secret police blew up a hydroelectric dam in the southern city of Zaporizhzhya to slow the Nazi advance."
https://www.rferl.org/a/european-remembrance-day-ukraine-little-known-ww2-tragedy/25083847.html

I'm just kind of flabbergasted that the Russians had considered that option, but never put took their shot.  They could have solidified their positions in the East with those 40,000 Experienced Troops they had to rotate in and out of Kherson.  The modest force Putin initially sent turned out to be hilariously inadequate, and his tactics were almost too humane, to defeat a NATO trained army with increasing supplies of advanced weaponry.  Is it really fair to compare Putin to Hitler?  I mean fair to Hitler? LOL.     

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Unless Ukraine has a way to diffuse the explosives on the dam before detonation, they would probably benefit from at least trying to negotiate with Russia that they won't attempt to pursue them across or seize the dam for now. Russia keeps Crimea's water, Ukraine preserves the dam and the settlements downstream, and can shift their focus to Zaporizhzhia. Fording the Dnieper in Kherson isn't like the Oskil in Kharkiv. It's bigger, better defended, and more resource intensive. The AFU is better off pushing south from the east where they already control both sides of the river.

Of course this would be a problem later if Ukraine continues to make progress in the south, but it makes sense for now. Both sides have reasons to keep the dam intact.

In any case, it's not clear whether Russia intends to blow the dam no matter what after they retreat across or whether they only intend to if Ukraine attempts to seize it, so it might not matter either way.

If Russia were the ones advancing, would you blow the damn?  I'd definitely blow the damn.  On the 2nd day of the war, Zelensky blew up a damn to stop the Russian advance on Kyiv, and a few villages were flooded as a result.  https://www.npr.org/2022/09/06/1121201310/ukraine-flooded-village-dam-blown-up

In 1940, the Dutch opened the dikes and flooded parts of their country in order to try to slow the Germans. Starting floods for military reasons has a long precedent in history.

You're Correct. 

"In 1941, as Nazi German troops swept through Soviet-era Ukraine, Josef Stalin's secret police blew up a hydroelectric dam in the southern city of Zaporizhzhya to slow the Nazi advance."
https://www.rferl.org/a/european-remembrance-day-ukraine-little-known-ww2-tragedy/25083847.html

I'm just kind of flabbergasted that the Russians had considered that option, but never put took their shot.  They could have solidified their positions in the East with those 40,000 Experienced Troops they had to rotate in and out of Kherson.  The modest force Putin initially sent turned out to be hilariously inadequate, and his tactics were almost too humane, to defeat a NATO trained army with increasing supplies of advanced weaponry.  Is it really fair to compare Putin to Hitler?  I mean fair to Hitler? LOL.     

Wow.
I was not aware that Stalin did this as well. But it's not too surprising either.
In any case, it is clear that the way both sides have conducted themselves, they agree things like dams can be targets for harm - both from one's own side and that of the enemy.

[DINGO Joe]

I thought the argument against Russia blowing the dam is that Crimea water supply would be doomed, but maybe they assume it's doomed anyway.

[Hollywood]

I thought the argument against Russia blowing the dam is that Crimea water supply would be doomed, but maybe they assume it's doomed anyway.

Doomed, huh?  Zelensky is such a drama queen. All they got to do is boil the water in a pot, unless they're worried about chemical or radioactive contaminants.  Also, I think Crimea has its own River Basin independent of Dnipro.     

[Woody]

I don't think Russians are withdrawing.

RU telegrams

🇷🇺❗While someone is dispersing that the Russians are leaving Kherson, local publics report on large-scale transfers of Russian troops to the territory of the Kherson region. A lot of soldiers and a lot of equipment. The troops go both to the left and to the right bank. Most of all - it is on the right bank, in the Berislav region.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

I thought the argument against Russia blowing the dam is that Crimea water supply would be doomed, but maybe they assume it's doomed anyway.

Doomed, huh?  Zelensky is such a drama queen. All they got to do is boil the water in a pot, unless they're worried about chemical or radioactive contaminants.  Also, I think Crimea has its own River Basin independent of Dnipro.     

Crimea wouldn't die of thirst - it managed during the months when the water supply was cut pre-war - but its considerable farming industry relies quite heavily on the dam.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

I never even considered that Russia could just blow-up all those damns along the Dnieper River until Zelensky mentioned it today.  In one swift act, Putin could deny Zelensky his Kherson victory.  The Zap Power Plant would be completely safe cause it was disconnected and safely put off-line.  They literally had to do it, because Zelensky was F-ing shelling it.  Why not just deny the UAFs all the FOB cities on the Dnieper by blowing the damns upstream to downstream?  And there's literally more damns in the Western Oblasts.  

The plant is not generating power but still needs water/power supply for cooling for the next few months. To avoid meltdown, and the consequences that would have for Ukraine, "Russia", Russia, and other countries.

[Virginiá]

The Zap Power Plant would be completely safe cause it was disconnected and safely put off-line.  They literally had to do it, because Zelensky was F-ing shelling it.

Ah yes, it was all Zelenskyy's fault. The Russians are innocent and only wanted to keep the plant safe. They definitely were not shelling it.

https://twitter.com/MacWBishop/status/1565681794602729478

[Antonio the Sixth]

I thought the argument against Russia blowing the dam is that Crimea water supply would be doomed, but maybe they assume it's doomed anyway.

From ISW yesterday:

Any claims that Russian forces would not blow the dam due to concerns for the water supply to Crimea are absurd. Crimea survived without access to the canal flowing from the Dnipro since Russia illegally invaded and annexed it in 2014 through the restoration of access following Russia’s invasion in February 2022. Russian officials have demonstrated their ability to indefinitely supply Crimea with water without access to the canal. Russian forces will try to hold eastern Kherson Oblast not for the water, but rather to provide a buffer zone that enables the defense of Crimea and prevents Ukrainian forces from getting into artillery range of the peninsula.

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1583979131988869121?cxt=HHwWgoCg3ZqotvsrAAAA

[Hollywood]

I never even considered that Russia could just blow-up all those damns along the Dnieper River until Zelensky mentioned it today.  In one swift act, Putin could deny Zelensky his Kherson victory.  The Zap Power Plant would be completely safe cause it was disconnected and safely put off-line.  They literally had to do it, because Zelensky was F-ing shelling it.  Why not just deny the UAFs all the FOB cities on the Dnieper by blowing the damns upstream to downstream?  And there's literally more damns in the Western Oblasts.  

The plant is not generating power but still needs water/power supply for cooling for the next few months. To avoid meltdown, and the consequences that would have for Ukraine, "Russia", Russia, and other countries.

Got It.  Apparently, the Rods are protected from Flooding, and system has multiple power sources that are safe from water rise.  Multiple Diesel Generators and Fuel Supplies.  As long as Zelensky doesn't shell it in front of the IAEA again, the Reactor will be fine in the event of prolonged power loss.  

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

I never even considered that Russia could just blow-up all those damns along the Dnieper River until Zelensky mentioned it today.  In one swift act, Putin could deny Zelensky his Kherson victory.  The Zap Power Plant would be completely safe cause it was disconnected and safely put off-line.  They literally had to do it, because Zelensky was F-ing shelling it.  Why not just deny the UAFs all the FOB cities on the Dnieper by blowing the damns upstream to downstream?  And there's literally more damns in the Western Oblasts.  

The plant is not generating power but still needs water/power supply for cooling for the next few months. To avoid meltdown, and the consequences that would have for Ukraine, "Russia", Russia, and other countries.

Got It.  Apparently, the Rods are protected from Flooding, and system has multiple power sources that are safe from water rise.  Multiple Diesel Generators and Fuel Supplies.  As long as Zelensky doesn't shell it in front of the IAEA again, the Reactor will be fine in the event of prolonged power loss.  

If the dam is blown up, the water supply in the associated reservoir plummets. Flooding isn’t the main problem here - the lack of water supply for the ZNPP is. Maybe there are alternative sources, but I haven’t read about them. 

[Hollywood]

The Zap Power Plant would be completely safe cause it was disconnected and safely put off-line.  They literally had to do it, because Zelensky was F-ing shelling it.

Ah yes, it was all Zelenskyy's fault. The Russians are innocent and only wanted to keep the plant safe. They definitely were not shelling it.

https://twitter.com/MacWBishop/status/1565681794602729478

You are so F-ing Crazy that your willing to just give zelensky a pass when it comes to blowing a nuclear power plant.  Per Reuters, Zelensky says he attacked power plant.  He admitted to it after saying he didn't do it, and falsely alleged that he only did it cause Russia was firing artillery from inside the facility.  There are literally videos of rockets coming across the Dneiper before hitting facility.  https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-warns-fresh-provocations-shelling-near-occupied-nuclear-plant-2022-08-13/

Then Zelensky changed his story against to allege the Russia were repeatedly firing on their own positions. He kept trying to blow the F-er up, because apparently a propaganda is more important to people like you then actually doing the responsible thing by calling Zelensky out for one of the most serious War Crimes imaginable.  A War Crime with weapons you want to provide him. People like you are the reason I and many other turned against Ukraine.  

Every human being has a duty to put a bullet into their leaders head when they intend to blow-up a nuclear facility just to sell the rest of the World on the idea that mutual-assured destruction is justified.  No.  You're a bad human being.  You can ask 100 people off the street, and 99 would come back with the same conclusion.

[Hollywood]

I never even considered that Russia could just blow-up all those damns along the Dnieper River until Zelensky mentioned it today.  In one swift act, Putin could deny Zelensky his Kherson victory.  The Zap Power Plant would be completely safe cause it was disconnected and safely put off-line.  They literally had to do it, because Zelensky was F-ing shelling it.  Why not just deny the UAFs all the FOB cities on the Dnieper by blowing the damns upstream to downstream?  And there's literally more damns in the Western Oblasts.  

The plant is not generating power but still needs water/power supply for cooling for the next few months. To avoid meltdown, and the consequences that would have for Ukraine, "Russia", Russia, and other countries.

Got It.  Apparently, the Rods are protected from Flooding, and system has multiple power sources that are safe from water rise.  Multiple Diesel Generators and Fuel Supplies.  As long as Zelensky doesn't shell it in front of the IAEA again, the Reactor will be fine in the event of prolonged power loss.  

If the dam is blown up, the water supply in the associated reservoir plummets. Flooding isn’t the main problem here - the lack of water supply for the ZNPP is. Maybe there are alternative sources, but I haven’t read about them. 

You're right.  There's a Crimean Basin that is actually a tributary of Dnieper.  I didn't see it' connection cause it cuts through a narrow piece of land that is surrounded on side by the Sea of Azov and the other by the Black Sea.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1584016678588796928
Man Ukraine can possible get Svatove, Kreminna, Kherson, Lysychans'k, and Sievierodonetsk all before winter sets in

[Hollywood]

I hope the sanctions EU is preparing are really crippling on Minsk, as this is state-sponsored crime. I think Merkel is a naive for calling on Putin to negotiate a solution here. The only language Lukashenko understands is strength and determination.

Well good for him, because that's precisely what the EU lacks lol

We've let Turkey's strongman infringe on an EU member's waters, flood them with migrants as a way to extort money, and even publicly humiliate the leader of the EU herself. Which one of those is supposed to scare Lukashenko or Putin?

Putin never did anything like this when Trump was president. They both had respect for each other.

You actually believe this don't you, god bless

To be fair, Trump was FAR less predictable, so this may have had some effect simply because people never know how he'll react.

China and Iran told US Leaders that they were legitimately scared of Donald Trump.  Yes.  Good.  That' is the exact F-ing response Democrats should have wanted to exude from enemy nations.  Instead, the Biden Administration went with the predictable strategy of asking those nations for forgiveness for America electing Trump. Then they left an incredible arsenal of weapons in Afghanistan, because Biden botched the execution when the pushed the withdrawal to September 11 for optics.  It's only now that they've repeatedly pissed on Biden that we are seeing psy-op campaigns in Iran and China meant to undermine the Leaders. It's too late.  
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-top-general-secretly-called-china-twice-trump-term-ended-report-2021-09-14/

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1584181021544570880

[jaichind]

https://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2022/10/23/691417/US-may-directly-enter-Ukraine-war-w-o-NATO--ex-CIA-chief

"US may directly enter Ukraine war without NATO: David Petraeus"

[DINGO Joe]

https://mobile.twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1584181021544570880

A Huge embarrassment for Wagner.  If they can't hold an asphalt factory, what can they do?

[Frodo]

https://mobile.twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1584181021544570880

A Huge embarrassment for Wagner.  If they can't hold an asphalt factory, what can they do?

Terrorize and kill innocent civilians behind the frontlines in an inept attempt to deal with partisans, perhaps?  

[DINGO Joe]

https://mobile.twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1584181021544570880

A Huge embarrassment for Wagner.  If they can't hold an asphalt factory, what can they do?

Terrorize and kill innocent civilians behind the frontlines in an inept attempt to deal with partisans, perhaps?  

Well, the Russia military already does that.  Wagner is auditioning for Prigozhin to be a replacement for Shoigu, but if they can't even hold Asphalt factory....

[DINGO Joe]

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1584068375847632896

[DINGO Joe]

Borat was pretty good, but Lukashenko is way better

https://twitter.com/yasminalombaert/status/1583896051358269440

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Borat was pretty good, but Lukashenko is way better

https://twitter.com/yasminalombaert/status/1583896051358269440

if Putin falls from power somehow, that's just asking for a Borat meme to be made with him and Lukashenko, with Lukashenko being Borat of course.