Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread (user search)
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Author Topic: Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread  (Read 826064 times)
Virginiá
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« on: November 07, 2021, 09:25:36 PM »
« edited: June 18, 2022, 07:14:09 AM by Virginiá »

Title. Thread to discuss Russia-Ukraine and Poland-Belarus tensions.

Timeline

November 1: Russia's power supply to Ukraine was stopped
Source: https://112.international/politics/electricity-supplies-from-russia-and-belarus-to-ukraine-stop-from-november-1-66325.html

November 3-4: New reforms are introduced to the Union State of Russia and Belarus
Source: https://tass.com/world/1357961

November 1-6: Ukraine starts using Bayraktar TB2 UAVs in battle
Source: https://uacrisis.org/en/buildup-of-russian-troops-near-ukraine-bayraktar-drone-in-donbas-vaccine-mandates-and-more-weekly-update-on-ukraine-37-25-31-october-2021

November7 1-7: Russia begins mass deployment of its army to the Ukrainian border
Source: https://ca.news.yahoo.com/ukraine-now-says-90-000-152816867.html

November 5-7: Poland says Belarus staged armed intrusion at border and thousands of migrants smuggled into Poland with the help of the Belarusian army.
Source: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/poland-says-belarus-staged-armed-intrusion-border-summons-envoy-2021-11-03/
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Virginiá
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Political Matrix
E: -6.97, S: -5.91

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« Reply #1 on: February 17, 2022, 11:58:57 AM »

My gosh, it is very good then that the peaceful Russian army camped out en masse on Ukraine's borders is there to defend the poor downtrodden Russians within Ukraine's authoritarian grip. I mean, who could have predicted such atrocities!
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Virginiá
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Political Matrix
E: -6.97, S: -5.91

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« Reply #2 on: February 26, 2022, 07:58:56 PM »

While I 100% do support boycotting products made in Russia right now, I do hope we don’t start seeing Russophobia from this. I’m guessing the overwhelming majority of the Russian diaspora aren’t even in favor of this and are pro-Ukraine, I hope Americans don’t use this as an excuse to be idiots…but they will won’t they?

I was just thinking this. There are a lot of Russian Americans not sympathetic to Putin or his actions with small businesses that don't deserve to be driven under by a wave of boycotts. I'm not sure I believe a boycott against international Russian products would not inevitably spill over onto innocent people.
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Virginiá
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Posts: 18,856
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Political Matrix
E: -6.97, S: -5.91

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« Reply #3 on: February 27, 2022, 09:17:44 PM »
« Edited: February 27, 2022, 10:37:50 PM by Virginiá »

Relax guys. Nobody is going to nuclear war. Even if Putin himself is crazy enough to do so, he's never going to be able to get past his advisors, the military, the oligarchs, or anyone else who doesn't want to Russia to be nuked right back.

Would that even happen if Russia deployed a nuclear weapon in Ukraine? I'm not convinced it would. It would significantly escalate the international response, but everyone else with nukes is going to be real hesitant to engage a belligerent hostile power with the largest active nuclear weapon stockpile on the planet, knowing what would happen if they did.
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Virginiá
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Posts: 18,856
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.97, S: -5.91

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« Reply #4 on: March 03, 2022, 12:11:47 PM »

Even invading a peaceful country and bombing their cities to rubble is wrong now. So much for the tolerant left. SAD!
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Virginiá
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Posts: 18,856
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.97, S: -5.91

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« Reply #5 on: March 05, 2022, 07:30:27 AM »

I think I might just stop posting on this thread or minimize, since it doesn't really appear anybody gives an "eff".

Maybe better to shift and share news to my social network on Facebook, where at least it will get a much greater reach both domestically and internationally.

I'm sure I'm not the only one who reads your posts in this thread with interest.  They are appreciated.  I don't usually comment on them because I don't have much to add to their content.

Yeah, I read his posts & links (when possible) as well although I'm usually doing this before or after work in which case I don't really have the time to respond, unfortunately.
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Virginiá
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Posts: 18,856
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.97, S: -5.91

WWW
« Reply #6 on: March 22, 2022, 03:14:25 PM »

"It’s difficult to know exact details of Russia’s stockpile, given its lack of transparency. Larry Korb, with the Center for American Progress, says that any tactical weapon “is still pretty powerful.” One that was detonated over New York City, for example, would destroy the city, while a full strategic nuclear weapon would destroy the entire state."

I wonder if they mean with radiation and other after-effects? According to NUKEMAP, the fireball from a 9 megaton weapon, much larger than I think any strategic-level weapon in either the US or Russian arsenal, would create a fireball with a radius of 2.3 km, and knock down most buildings within 14 km, and burns within 31 km. Even Tsar Bomba, that obscene 50 megaton monstrosity they recklessly tested decades ago, would still fail to actually destroy all of Ohio (although I guess it is a big state).
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Virginiá
Virginia
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Posts: 18,856
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Political Matrix
E: -6.97, S: -5.91

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« Reply #7 on: March 22, 2022, 08:26:21 PM »

Why dismiss top generals and put them on house arrest? Just send them to the front lines Curly
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Virginiá
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Posts: 18,856
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.97, S: -5.91

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« Reply #8 on: March 31, 2022, 09:19:38 PM »

I hadn't thought about that comparison although I have seen those stories about Putin.

Either way, I'm grateful Putin so badly planned his initial move to reclaim lost glory that any future attempts will likely fail as well given the immense damage to Russia's economy and international image - particularly any potential fear CIS countries may have had of Russia's military, which has surely been significantly eroded after the failure to conquer even half of Europe's poorest country despite massive losses in personnel and equipment.
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Virginiá
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Posts: 18,856
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.97, S: -5.91

WWW
« Reply #9 on: April 04, 2022, 07:31:43 PM »

Quote from: Tweet
Plot twist. Western official: "My understanding is that tanks & jets will not be supplied, partly because...they have this offensive dimension...but also...would not be particularly relevant... what the Americans have told us is that they are not minded to give [MBTs] to Ukraine"

Yes, because Ukraine is going to storm Moscow with a few hundred Soviet-era T-72 tanks.
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Virginiá
Virginia
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Posts: 18,856
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.97, S: -5.91

WWW
« Reply #10 on: April 15, 2022, 09:29:09 AM »

You could probably argue the captain was dead no matter what, whether it was the missile strike or falling out of a window after Putin puts him on house arrest for losing a $750 million flagship.
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Virginiá
Virginia
Administratrix
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Posts: 18,856
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.97, S: -5.91

WWW
« Reply #11 on: April 15, 2022, 12:12:29 PM »

There is the Ukraina, which is 95% completed and is sitting in a Mykolayiv Shipyard.

Russia would have to spend $30 million dollars to complete it.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrainian_cruiser_Ukraina

So close yet so far. I would bet it is no minor point of frustration for Russian officials that they have a theoretical replacement so close yet basically guaranteed to be destroyed before their army can secure it, if they are even capable of taking that city, which at this point doesn't seem possible given their widespread failure to secure even basic objectives everywhere else.

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Virginiá
Virginia
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Posts: 18,856
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.97, S: -5.91

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« Reply #12 on: April 17, 2022, 02:36:56 PM »

I don't understand why any countries allow foreign propaganda to be broadcast to its citizens.

If it is broadcast over the air and some of your people are literally buying antennas to listen in, there isn't much you can do other than going door to door to confiscate them.
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Virginiá
Virginia
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Posts: 18,856
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.97, S: -5.91

WWW
« Reply #13 on: April 18, 2022, 09:47:39 PM »

[...]

Quote
In Melitopol, the mayor, Mr. Fedorov, said Russian forces were stripping factories of their machinery and shipping it back to Russia.

Dismantling factories and shipping it back to the Soviet Union Russia? What is this, WW2?
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Virginiá
Virginia
Administratrix
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*****
Posts: 18,856
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.97, S: -5.91

WWW
« Reply #14 on: April 24, 2022, 02:33:20 PM »

Crazy that just 60 Chinooks can cost >5 billion dollars. Especially after seeing other less advanced but still just as vulnerable helicopters get blown out of the sky en masse, it almost doesn't even seem financially practical to use these in forward combat operations. Not unless you have deep pockets anyway ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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Virginiá
Virginia
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Posts: 18,856
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.97, S: -5.91

WWW
« Reply #15 on: April 24, 2022, 09:10:18 PM »

I can hear those eardrums begging for mercy^^
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Virginiá
Virginia
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Posts: 18,856
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.97, S: -5.91

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« Reply #16 on: April 29, 2022, 09:54:24 AM »

The key point is this mass mobilization bit. That seems like bluster. A bunch of untrained guys who don't want to be there, with a lack of stuff to equip them with. If you are a young man in Russia, get the F out - now.

Which brings me to the question as to when, aside from his nukes that Putin keeps under his bed, when will Russia run out of missiles, and what is their logistical capacity to replace them?

Are they built in one place or all over the fruited plain?

Russia spent years trying to move their dependence on computer chips in-country, but they never got it fully done and were still importing chips from Europe and even the US. Most of what they need can be bought from China but it would require redesigns which obviously take time. Another issue is that like any large country, there is a certain share of their stock that needs to be reserved for other defense. Similar to how other countries in Europe wouldn't give up certain weapon systems without backfill from their allies. It's needed for strategic defense and would leave them vulnerable if they expended it all in the war. So there is a limit to how many PGMs Russia will use in Ukraine even if they technically have many more in their stockpiles.

Russia is going to have supply issues for the time being but eventually they will secure new supply chains and their weapons production will be mostly insulated from foreign sanctions. Who knows how long that will take. I'm sure it is of the highest priority now, though.
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Virginiá
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Political Matrix
E: -6.97, S: -5.91

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« Reply #17 on: April 29, 2022, 11:20:50 AM »
« Edited: April 29, 2022, 11:36:08 AM by Virginiá »

China recognized the supply chain vulnerability and made it a national priority to create replacements for imported technologies years ago. It's devoted hundreds of billions of $$ to that effect, but it's been unable to make substantial headway in that direction.

And if China, with 10X of Russia's population and economy, and a far greater manufacturing base, couldn't accomplish that after spending such time and money, and without being at war with the western powers, there's zero chance that Russia could do so ever, let alone in a timeframe that could affect the outcome of this war.

Russia was starting to do this years ago as well. I remember reading about it in 2015.

Not saying they can get it done anytime soon, but they will certainly be trying. I expect them to lean very heavily towards China in doing so. But all of this is more of a future thing. Russia can't just create high-tech industry and redesign, re-implement and re-manufacture guidance systems for PGMs overnight. And with the significant brain drain that they experienced after the invasion, and even well before it, they might never have the domestic capacity for this. But it doesn't mean they can't work with other more sympathetic nations to build supply chains that are less susceptible to foreign interference.

Also worth mentioning is diversion of components from supply chains restricted by sanctions. We can choke their supply pretty effectively but with Russia ramping up smuggling efforts they are still going to get some of what they need anyway in the meantime.
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Virginiá
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Political Matrix
E: -6.97, S: -5.91

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« Reply #18 on: April 29, 2022, 11:35:21 AM »

Again the big question is whether they can amass the resources and manpower to change the sustainability of the war in time for it to matter.

The problem I see is that they are churning through their professional forces and best equipment very rapidly. After a certain point, if they decide to mobilize, they'll just be sending a bunch of poorly trained soldiers to the front who are likely to be much less effective than their already crappy professional soldiers and mercenaries.

In the meantime, Ukraine is being flooded with billions of dollars in small arms and heavy weapon systems with no signs of attrition of NATO's will to give. This boondoggle is like the worst possible outcome for Russia.
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Virginiá
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« Reply #19 on: May 01, 2022, 02:40:05 PM »

“Russian security concerns” is a poor disguise for domination and control. They should not be given what they want.
I'm not advocating that we do what Russia wants. I'm establishing the reasoning for this war being rational from the Russian perspective.
If some hostile defensive alliance was expanding into our hemisphere, I'm sure we wouldn't want Mexico and Canada in it...
I think you are giving too much legitimacy to Russian accusations that they have legitimate concerns that the eastern bloc entering NATO is a threat to invade Russia verse the actual concern that the eastern bloc enters NATO means Russia can’t bully them into compliance

Yeah. Consider why they want to be part of NATO in the first place. Eastern Europe was subjugated by Russia for generations. Can't fault them for not wanting to return to that kind of dynamic.
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Virginiá
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Political Matrix
E: -6.97, S: -5.91

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« Reply #20 on: May 01, 2022, 07:16:00 PM »

Rezekne (Latvia) - Moscow (Russia) - 674 km
Kharkiv (Ukraine) - Moscow (Russia) - 761 km

Anything else?

Yeah, this buffer state sh**t never made any sense since the Baltic states joined NATO. Like it or not, NATO is already at your doorstep, Russia. It's probably safe to say they don't have to worry much about Belarus, but whether Ukraine is or isn't in NATO doesn't have any major strategic effect on Russia, in practice. They aren't needed to park nukes or missile defense systems on Russia's border.

It's all about Russia's desire to continue dominating Eastern Europe. And I think I speak for many when I say that Russia has spent long enough destroying and holding back the countries along its borders.
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Virginiá
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Political Matrix
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« Reply #21 on: May 01, 2022, 07:26:26 PM »

That's a dangerous (veering too close to arrogant) path to go down. Especially because likely any actual shooting war in the Baltics would be more serious than this, making this war look like child's play.
Underestimate your enemy at your own risk. Respecting your opponent is respecting yourself by extension.

In theory Russia could be more of a threat, but the pervasive corruption, top-down command structure, lack of experience and widespread poverty has created a fighting force that simply isn't capable and isn't well-funded enough. What you get with an army run by impoverished young men and literal criminals is people who invade another country to go rob houses and grocery stores to keep themselves fed and send money back to their own country via fencing stolen goods. Or officers and other soldiers diverting their own fuel, rations and other supplies for their own personal benefit. This level of widespread corruption is significant enough to be a systemic problem in their military. Let's keep in mind that a potentially major reason why the initial invasion immediately hit speed bumps is because hundreds of millions of dollars meant to go towards creating a network of treasonous Ukrainian government officials who would turn on their country in the event of a Russian invasion never made it there. It was pocketed by corrupt Russian intelligence officials and other well-connected elites. A military can't run if everyone is sitting around skimming off the top to the point that there is barely anything left to actually go towards actual operations.

So yes, I would say DINGO is right.
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Virginiá
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« Reply #22 on: May 01, 2022, 07:31:15 PM »

I think this is a very incomplete and oversimplified way of looking at it.
The length of the NATO-Russia border and the secondary impact that territorial possession has are at least as significant as whether Russia and NATO have a border at all. Ukraine in NATO rewrites the entire playbook and forces Russia to commit immensely more resources on defending its southern flank, all while it is more vulnerable from attack from both its southern portions and its northern ones.
Ask the Germans in the world wars how well it went for them that they had to defend themselves on two fronts...

Who exactly is going to invade the Russian Federation, a country with the largest nuclear stockpile on Earth and an explicit military doctrine stating they will use nuclear weapons on an invasion force that threatens the Russian state's existence, or even simply an overwhelming conventional force?

What your saying is what Russia says, and it's ridiculous. It's not going to happen, if for no other reason than that no country is willing to trigger a guaranteed salvo of nuclear missiles aimed right at their population centers for a bunch of frozen tundra and fossil fuels in hard-to-extract regions of the continent.
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Virginiá
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Political Matrix
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« Reply #23 on: May 01, 2022, 07:54:32 PM »

Well, I was operating on the assumption that nukes were off the table. Militaries have to plan for all sorts of scenarios and countries have to be able to have some means of defense besides nuclear weapons (such as air and anti-air defense of urban centers, etc). Russia's leadership is right to think that Ukraine in NATO is a significant blow to its power. I think the leadership of the West broadly thinks likewise.

Furthermore, Russia has a strong chance of eventually not being in the position to prevent Ukrainian NATO membership. The realist case for Russia is to prevent this, but conversely, it means we should strongly consider getting Ukraine in it, on those same grounds.

The geopolitical map of Europe is changing as we speak.

Russia sees NATO in former/current regions making up the Commonwealth of Independent States as a blow to its power because it removes war and violence as an option for them to exert influence over otherwise unwilling countries. This isn't about a fear of an invasion of Russia, it's literally the other way around. Russia has spent the past 100+ years seeking to maintain or build an empire for itself. Even in their greatly reduced state now, they are still invading other countries for influence and power.

Nuclear weapons changed everything about warfare. If this were the early 20th century and you said the same thing, you'd have a really good point because yes, they would absolutely have to shore up their borders, and "buffer states" would indeed be useful to protect against an invading force. But we're in the 21st century and Russia is a nuclear state with so many active nuclear weapons that they could completely obliterate an invading army and their entire home country before they ever finish crossing the border. Everyone knows this. That's why no one is itching to invade Russia. It sounds very simplistic but the reality is, it is that simple. The only countries who truly need to worry about this are non-nuclear countries, or countries with such few nuclear weapons or limited delivery capabilities that they could be taken off the table with a single quick strike.
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Virginiá
Virginia
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Posts: 18,856
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.97, S: -5.91

WWW
« Reply #24 on: May 05, 2022, 08:09:37 PM »

This is a REALLY good question. You can't just snap your fingers and have the army just appear. It might well take 2-3 months before anyone gained from mobilization actually shows up in Ukraine.

God help the poor 18-19 year olds who want nothing to do with fighting Ukrainians they draft and send into Ukraine just to be incinerated inside of some Soviet-era steel death trap.
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