Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Omega21]

I hope the sanctions EU is preparing are really crippling on Minsk, as this is state-sponsored crime. I think Merkel is a naive for calling on Putin to negotiate a solution here. The only language Lukashenko understands is strength and determination.

Well good for him, because that's precisely what the EU lacks lol

We've let Turkey's strongman infringe on an EU member's waters, flood them with migrants as a way to extort money, and even publicly humiliate the leader of the EU herself. Which one of those is supposed to scare Lukashenko or Putin?

Putin never did anything like this when Trump was president. They both had respect for each other.

You actually believe this don't you, god bless

To be fair, Trump was FAR less predictable, so this may have had some effect simply because people never know how he'll react.

[Omega21]

If something does happen, there won't be an all-out war. Russia will just officially incorporate the 2 breakaway regions and that's it.

I don't think they are interested in any regions where there's no Russian majority.

[Omega21]

https://twitter.com/Sierra__Alpha/status/1465790255026610176?s=20

Deleted, what did it say?

[Omega21]

BigSerg’s Russian chauvinism is tired, predictable, boring, and idiotic.

Maybe instead of shilling for Putin bullying his neighbors and making his country the most despised in the continent anytime he's facing some crisis caused by his government's poor handling of domestic affairs, Russia fans should worry about why the glorious, strong Russian people won't take the covid vaccine and are right now suffering tens of thousands of deaths a month as a consequence!

Similar to the Balkans, younger Russians probably just don't care about Corona.

The <40 age group is aware their risks are low (barring chronic illness or obesity), so the fastest way to incite them to protest would be to restrict their freedom of movement.

The same thing happened in Serbia in 2020. Vucic announces lockdown > Tens of thousands of young men start protesting and even storm the Parliament > Tomorrow the Corona commission says the "situation has changed" and no lockdown is necessary.

To this day, the only measure active is a Test/Vax/Natural Immunity mandate in Hospitality after 20:00, & guess what? The wave already passed and cases are plummeting back to August levels.

As said previously on another thread:

Young people there are generally brasher and less scared about such things. While you might have luck convincing a 20-year-old German to fear a virus with a 0.1-0.2% chance of death (for their age group), you won't have such luck in the countries such as these.

[Omega21]

BigSerg’s Russian chauvinism is tired, predictable, boring, and idiotic.

Maybe instead of shilling for Putin bullying his neighbors and making his country the most despised in the continent anytime he's facing some crisis caused by his government's poor handling of domestic affairs, Russia fans should worry about why the glorious, strong Russian people won't take the covid vaccine and are right now suffering tens of thousands of deaths a month as a consequence!

Similar to the Balkans, younger Russians probably just don't care about Corona.

The <40 age group is aware their risks are low (barring chronic illness or obesity), so the fastest way to incite them to protest would be to restrict their freedom of movement.

The same thing happened in Serbia in 2020. Vucic announces lockdown > Tens of thousands of young men start protesting and even storm the Parliament > Tomorrow the Corona commission says the "situation has changed" and no lockdown is necessary.

To this day, the only measure active is a Test/Vax/Natural Immunity mandate in Hospitality after 20:00, & guess what? The wave already passed and cases are plummeting back to August levels.

As said previously on another thread:

Young people there are generally brasher and less scared about such things. While you might have luck convincing a 20-year-old German to fear a virus with a 0.1-0.2% chance of death (for their age group), you won't have such luck in the countries such as these.

Well you are correct that toxic masculinity in a rapidly changing world is a serious problem in many places.

I don't spend enough time in woke Twitter bubbles to fully comprehend what that means.

[Omega21]

Well you are correct that toxic masculinity in a rapidly changing world is a serious problem in many places.

I don't spend enough time in woke Twitter bubbles to fully comprehend what that means.

Well, you don't need to spend time in woke bubbles.... try to imagine that 0.1 % risk of death would be acceptable - say -for airtravel - this would mean that 5 - 10 civilan airliners would crash EVERY DAY - and that the likely expectation of survival for an airline crew should not exceed 4 years of service...

While similar death rates happen in some "fields of occupation" - like military service in wartimes  - this would be a tipical example of "masculinity" - and war is almoust certainly "toxic"..

CDC: Deaths 18-29 years old in 2020/21

Covid: 4,700
All other Causes: 122,000

Covid caused an increase of death by approximately 2,6%.
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm

So no, 2,6% more deaths than usual is not tragic or anything to fear.

Don't get me wrong, I got vaccinated because, well, why not? The cost/benefit is clearly positive IMO. But this does not mean that Covid is scary for young, healthy people.

Also, I totally understand what you mean, but if you dig a bit you will find that the statistics for someone getting cancer up to 25 or dying from X cause are not as good as you would hope. So the CDC numbers above should help clear up just how more likely people are to die of something else.

[Omega21]

Not at all the sort of thing your mate Trump would ever do, he was so fastidious about these things.

Wouldn't you agree that Whataboutism brings little to the conversation?

Anyway, Ukraine should clean up their units if they already haven't. It's very weird seeing people flying Nato flags next to the Swastika lol. This pic might be years old, so they might have already done something about it.

[Omega21]

BigSerg has the same sources as Biden it seems:

https://twitter.com/ZekeJMiller/status/1494318081962872833

How can we be sure BigSerg is not Vladimir himself?

[Omega21]

BREAKING: German Chancellor Olaf Scholz announces de facto suspension of Nordstream 2 pipeline. Also, it seems like EU is about to impose very tough sanctions, including measures to restrict Russia's access to financial markets and a ban on trading with Russian government bonds.

Petro nations right about now

[Omega21]

IF an invasion does occur, I think he'll go for the full, de jure borders of DNR and LNR, not any further.

1. Easier to control, since >50% of the population should be Russian or pro-Russian.
2. He already recognized the 2 "republics" with the de jure province borders.  

However, if it drags on until mid/end of March with no further moves, we're probably good.

[Omega21]

Any idea of Ukraine's troop/equipment numbers on the border with Crimea / the 2 "republics"?

Curious to know if they're really putting effort into the area or if they're looking to hold back a lot to protect the inland part and limit any attack to the already half-occupied provinces.

[Omega21]

https://twitter.com/phildstewart/status/1496643487395196928

Blinken says invasion tonight.

That is very, very specific. Let's all hope to God that he is wrong.

Sadly, that's looking less likely by the minute.

[Omega21]

Welcome to Russian shock and awe tactics - now they are being used online.
Please stay safe everyone.

It's kind of shocking how effective they are in these areas. Probably the best "value for money" armed, cyber & intelligence forces on the planet.

Goes to show the West shouldn't keep underestimating them as a capable regional/world Power just because their economy is 2nd class at best.

[Omega21]

Welcome to Russian shock and awe tactics - now they are being used online.
Please stay safe everyone.

It's kind of shocking how effective they are in these areas. Probably the best "value for money" armed, cyber & intelligence forces on the planet.

Goes to show the West shouldn't keep underestimating them as a capable regional/world Power just because their economy is 2nd class at best.

When it’s so cold outside, nothing better to do than a cyberattack from the warmth of the home.

You can say a lot of things about Russians in general, but being scared of the cold ain't one of them lol.

[Omega21]

That's why I always believed, Putin wouldn't attack. It will likely be his end. But today's news are scary.

Yeah, this makes literally 0 sense.

I thought he would maybe just incorporate the already occupied territory, bring back home a "win" to rally some support while only suffering minimal-moderate consequences in form of sanctions.

If he really does go all in, I don't see it ending well for him long-term, unless he only goes for the full Donetsk and Luhansk, and casualties are light.

[Omega21]

We need to fight this. It won’t stop with Ukraine.

If you're ready to put on a helmet and take up an AK, go right ahead, but no sane Western power would risk sending boots on the ground to start WW3.

If he does go in, western troops will probably roll up en masse to the Baltics / Eastern Europe anyway, preventing further land grabs.

[Omega21]

We need to fight this. It won’t stop with Ukraine.

If you're ready to put on a helmet and take up an AK, go right ahead, but no sane Western power would risk sending boots on the ground to start WW3.

If he does go in, western troops will probably roll up en masse to the Baltics / Eastern Europe anyway, preventing further land grabs.

Isn't it the insane thing to do on the part of western nations to not intervene? Wouldn't the same thing be to defend the Ukrainians and their territorial sovereignty just as we claim? If we won't defend Ukrainian sovereignty like we say we support, then what is the word of a western nation worth?

I know what it isn't worth:

A WW3 with a country holding the #1 nuclear stockpile.

[Omega21]

We need to fight this. It won’t stop with Ukraine.

If you're ready to put on a helmet and take up an AK, go right ahead, but no sane Western power would risk sending boots on the ground to start WW3.

If he does go in, western troops will probably roll up en masse to the Baltics / Eastern Europe anyway, preventing further land grabs.

Isn't it the insane thing to do on the part of western nations to not intervene? Wouldn't the same thing be to defend the Ukrainians and their territorial sovereignty just as we claim? If we won't defend Ukrainian sovereignty like we say we support, then what is the word of a western nation worth?

I know what it isn't worth:

A WW3 with a country holding the #1 nuclear stockpile.

And if Putin were to invade Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, would there not be people trying to worm out of NATO's Article 5 commitments using that same argument?

As said in my above post, if Putin takes Ukraine, NATO/the West should flood Eastern Europe/the Baltics with troops, thereby fully eliminating that possibility and any further advance.

[Omega21]

Ze will allegedly ask UN for sending peace keepers to Ukraine.

Can't Russia just block that?

Don't really get the point.

[Omega21]

UNVERIFIED, but worth posting

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1496660314460499971

[Omega21]

This is unverified, I have no idea what the source is, but is dramatic enough that seems like it should be posted. However, it is just a rumor unless there is some more confirmation of its legitimacy I would say. So with that grain of salt:

https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1496666879418589190

They posted the link of the feed as well, but it's down now.

[Omega21]

UNVERIFIED, but worth posting

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1496660314460499971

Well, something has changed:
https://twitter.com/1nternational7/status/1496666212281032704?s=20&t=1NXdfKd...

Here's the link to the livestream that image was taken from. The are obvious plumes of smoke rising from the city currently. https://mytrinity.com.ua/cams?group=1206#

Edit: Welp, now it's down. Thanks Russian hackers.

Seems like it. It was down before temporarily, but the error was something I would expect from a server overload (too many users trying to open). Now this is a DB error, meaning an SQL injection likely.

[Omega21]

https://twitter.com/marcorubio/status/1496670465879941120

Rubio being pretty specific, he must know something.

Is he in some security Commitee? Even if not, I'd imagine he'd know a lot of people who are in the loop 24/7.

[Omega21]

Full speech content

https://twitter.com/gbazov/status/1496675363396673538

[Omega21]

https://twitter.com/ZekeJMiller/status/1496680759624708097

Still hoping he's only going for the declared DNR and LNR borders... Would mean far fewer casualties and suffering than a total invasion.