Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread (user search)
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Author Topic: Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread  (Read 825300 times)
Storr
Junior Chimp
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« on: November 19, 2021, 06:29:39 PM »

Lukashenko sounds completely unhinged in his latest BBC interview - more or less openly admitting to what he's doing with migrants, answering a question about closing down NGOs with something like "all the scum the West is sending us", literally just shouting in some moments, etc, etc.
It’s usually hard to tell how much of it is an act with Luka. His pubic persona has always been as the “says it like it is” everyman former collective farm manager.
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Storr
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« Reply #1 on: January 22, 2022, 08:31:11 PM »

Great Patriots think alike.



Tucker Carlson in 1938: Imagine if Mexico fell under the direct military control of the Soviet Union. We would see that as a threat. There would be no reason for that. That’s how Germany views Western control of Czechoslovakia and why wouldn’t they?
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Storr
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #2 on: January 23, 2022, 01:23:49 PM »
« Edited: January 23, 2022, 01:27:10 PM by Storr »

Particularly aggravating for the Ukrainian government was his comment that Crimea would "never come back" to Ukraine. Which, while true, as Russia has heavily fortified Crimea since 2014, making it a western outpost of Russian military might. Akin to the NATO surrounded exclave of Kaliningrad Oblast, which is one of the most militarized places on the planet. That's simply one of those things you're not supposed to say publicly as a senior official in a major NATO government.

Interestingly, further underlying Germany's overall hesitancy to support Ukraine or even criticize Russia, he said this: "Russia is an old country. Russia is an important country. Even we, India, Germany, we need Russia, because we need Russia against China."
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Storr
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #3 on: January 24, 2022, 02:10:33 PM »
« Edited: January 24, 2022, 05:15:56 PM by Storr »

Yes, it's amazing how everyone thinks that now...


Anyway, sort of related to the topic. More fun and games from Putin;

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60113233
Ireland tells Russia live-fire naval exercise is 'not welcome'
Quote
...But the timing and location of have raised eyebrows among some defence pundits.

The area - off the west coast of Europe - is far from any of Russia's permanent naval bases, and is also near several critical transatlantic data cables, which defence experts have warned Russia could pose a risk to.
Russian stunts like this are why long neutral countries like Sweden and Finland have been seriously considering NATO membership as of late. They are conducting the exercises in international waters 240km (150 miles) from shore that are part of Ireland's Exclusive Economic Zone. They could have easily chosen somewhere 50 miles further from Ireland (EEZ extends to 370km/200miles from land) in order to not needlessly aggravate a [edit: non NATO] neutral country that poses no threat to Russian interests.

https://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/foreign-policy/590482-russian-threats-against-ukraine-could-push-finland-and

Russia constantly complains about NATO expanding ever closer to its borders. But with how it treats its neighbors (much less 1,700km away Ireland), can you blame them for wanting the protection Article 5 provides?
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Storr
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #4 on: January 24, 2022, 09:14:12 PM »

Not sure if it's the right place for this but this Lithuanian MP is spitting pure facts



My favorite comment was that "Sweden could also claim St. Petersburg". I'm pretty sure Putin wouldn't mind that.
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Storr
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #5 on: February 02, 2022, 01:41:24 PM »




Not that Hungary has a say there, but 😬

Honestly, he has a point. How much effect did the sanctions implemented in response to the Crimean invasion and annexation have on the Russian economy?

Though, I don't think Russia's security demands were "normal and should be the basis for negotiations". There isn't much point in a military alliance if you're not able to station troops in nearly half of said alliance's member countries. Just as Western leaders have talked about NATO's "open door" policy toward states seeking membership in response to Russia's demand for guarantees of no further NATO expansion, member states are also free to close the door and leave.

In response to your comment: Fortunately Hungary does have a say since the North Atlantic Council (the governing body of NATO) cannot make decisions without unanimity.
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Storr
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« Reply #6 on: February 02, 2022, 02:00:21 PM »
« Edited: February 02, 2022, 02:03:38 PM by Storr »





The crux of his argument lies in the odd assertion that the US cannot fulfil its obligations in Europe while also countering the increasing military threat posed by China. I thought the US was able to win a world war with major theaters in Europe and Asia. Maybe I'm just losing my marbles but, didn't the US also work to contain Communism in Europe and Asia during the Cold War? Didn't that effort involve massive military commitments in both regions?
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Storr
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #7 on: February 02, 2022, 02:34:40 PM »
« Edited: February 02, 2022, 02:40:10 PM by Storr »





The crux of his argument lies in the odd assertion that the US cannot fulfil its obligations in Europe while also countering the increasing military threat posed by China. I thought the US was able to win a world war with major theaters in Europe and Asia. Maybe I'm just losing my marbles but, didn't the US also work to contain Communism in Europe and Asia during the Cold War? Didn't that effort involve massive military commitments in both regions?

The correlation of forces in the world is not as favorable to the USA as it was in the Cold War.  And even in the Cold War, the USA roped in the PRC as a de facto ally against the USSR.  

His argument mostly matches my own proposal for the USA strategy which is to do everything to break the PRC-Russia alliance.  If that means demarkating a Russian sphere of influence that sounds reasonable given Russia's Great Power status. The USA should seek to be on friendlier terms with every Great Power in the world than they are with each other.  That is how the USA will maintain its relative power in an era where its relative strength has dimished since the 1990s.
I don't disagree.
I think China+Russia is too big of a coalition against us as well and it's a problem.
The China-Russia alliance is one factor why I was disappointed the TPP was scuttled. The US needs to do more than just renaming the military command for the region from "Pacific" to "Indo-Pacific". Creating an Asian NATO has long been floated among academics, but I doubt there will be a willingness to do so unless China does something blatantly aggressive (such as invading Taiwan). The lack of interest is mostly due to lingering disputes/issues between possible members (S. Korea and Japan for example) and China's overall increasingly dominant influence over the region. China would make all efforts to prevent SE Asian nations from joining.

Edit: Not to mention the incredibly faricial failure which was SEATO, created in the lead up to American intervention in Vietnam.
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Storr
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #8 on: February 02, 2022, 07:48:38 PM »

The NATO and U.S. response to Russia was leaked to a Spanish newspaper, and the U.S. said it was real. Not much for the Russians in it.

https://www.politico.eu/article/us-nato-accuse-russia-provocative-troop-missile-deployments/

So what is this magical diplomacy answer the Ukrainians think will stop war? The Russians are not giving away anything and the Americans/NATO are not giving away anything.
It's obviously nowhere close to what Russia wants but at least the US mentioned a few areas for compromise: "The U.S. did offer to negotiate with Russia over reciprocal commitments “to refrain from deploying offensive ground-launched missile systems and permanent forces with a combat mission in the territory of Ukraine.”"

"Permanent forces with a combat mission" seems purposely opaque. Does that include US advisors to the Ukrainian military? The Russians wouldn't agree to anything that vague.
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Storr
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #9 on: February 08, 2022, 03:25:37 PM »

Yeah, it seems like Putin used it mostly as an opportunity to look tough in front of the cameras:

"Jabbing a finger in the air at a French reporter, [Putin] said that “Russia is a military superpower and a nuclear superpower” and warned: “There will be no winners and you will be drawn into this conflict against your own will.”"

"“I want to underscore once again even though I have already mentioned it — I’d really love if you really hear me and bring this point to your audience, that if Ukraine is in NATO and if they decided to take back Crimea using military means,” he said, “European countries will automatically be in a military conflict with Russia.”"
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Storr
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #10 on: February 14, 2022, 10:10:39 PM »


Russia and Belarus are currently conducting exercises. I’d hope the CIA would be smart enough to figure out if troop movements are related likely to be related to exercises or actual positioning for an invasion of Ukraine.

 US warnings have been generally vague, moving to “attack positions” where? Belarus, the Donbass, Crimea, 300 kilometers from the Ukrainian border? I understand that this is highly sensitive intelligence, but with how little meat there has been on the bones of what “US officials” have been publicly releasing, it gives some weight to Russian statements  about American “hysteria”.
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Storr
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #11 on: February 15, 2022, 12:31:44 PM »

Big if true….but trusting the Sun? That’s a gigantic leap of
faith.
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Storr
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #12 on: February 15, 2022, 12:39:17 PM »


Ukraine joining NATO at this point is about as likely as Turkey ever joining the EU.
 

So why not tell Putin that publically.  If Russia invades then Putin will have a hell of a job trying to explain to his people why Russian blood needs to be bleed on something the West and Ukraine is already making concessions on.

Because this is geopolitics and that's not how things work. For example, everyone knows Crimea now is Russian and it is never going back to Ukraine, but they're not going to say that publicly in order to not legitimize Russia's hostile annexation of it until the Ukrainians agree to cede it.

Look, Singapore to throw out a random place has a right to join NATO. That doesn't mean they will ever actually get approved to join. The EU are never going to allow Turkey in nowadays, they're still considered a candidate. The Russians seem to want a written-down treaty to be agreed to reorganizing Europe's security infrastructure, and that takes years, not a couple months with your forces around a border.

The Russians are apparently willing to settle for Ukraine guaranteeing it in their laws, probably as a part of their constitution. This would be the biggest L possible IMO for the US, their eastern expansion into Ukraine thwarted without being able to punish Russia for it.  This would probably tempt the US to launch another regime change in Ukraine, which would give Russia a much more solid casus belli.

What do you mean by "another" here?
*heavy sarcasm* Didn’t you know Euromaidan was actually a NATO backed coup? The thousands of protesters in Kiev were all CIA operatives.
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Storr
Junior Chimp
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Moldova, Republic of


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« Reply #13 on: February 15, 2022, 03:33:13 PM »
« Edited: February 15, 2022, 03:38:33 PM by Storr »

Big if true….but trusting the Sun? That’s a gigantic leap of
faith.

Would you trust PBS? They reported four days ago they reported the following:

The United States believes Russian President Vladimir Putin has decided to invade Ukraine and has communicated those plans to the Russian military, Western and defense officials have told the PBS NewsHour.

Two additional administration officials tell the NewsHour that they expect the invasion to begin next week—reiterating what U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Feb. 10.

https://web.archive.org/web/20220211200039/https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/putin-to-invade-ukraine-next-week-according-to-u-s-officials

Interestingly enough however Sullivan was saying they didn't know yet. The headline was later changed, but not before it was widely reported.
I’m not saying the Sun is definitely wrong. But British tabloids do not the greatest track record when it comes to accuracy in reporting. If UK intelligence was able to find out the date and time of invasion, you might as well leak that information to a publication like the Sun. It’s more likely to get printed/publicized faster there than somewhere like the BBC, which would want thoroughly verify such information before publishing it.
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Storr
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #14 on: February 15, 2022, 05:19:18 PM »


It would be 1939-40 all over again.

The Soviet Union took over what is now Western Belarus and Western Ukraine (major cities including Lviv, Brest, Grodno, Vilnius, Lutsk, Ternopil, and Rivne) from interwar Poland as part of the Nazi-Soviet non aggression pact in September 1939. Then the Red Army occupied Bessarabia on June 28, 1940 after giving an ultimatum to Romania on June 26, 1940. Several counties were incorporated into Soviet Ukraine (thus why Moldova doesn’t have a Black Sea coastline) and the remainder included in the new Moldavian Soviet Socialist Republic on August 2, 1940.
 
The Soviets also occupied the Baltics in June 1940, but that won’t be happening this time for obvious reasons.
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Storr
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #15 on: February 15, 2022, 05:28:23 PM »
« Edited: February 15, 2022, 05:32:59 PM by Storr »

I think Pope Francis is the best person to mediate.

There are very few Catholics in either of these countries though
Yeah, I feel like Pope John Paul II would have been a better fit to mediate since at least he was from Eastern Europe.
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Storr
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #16 on: February 21, 2022, 06:54:40 PM »
« Edited: February 21, 2022, 08:09:46 PM by Storr »

I suppose the next question is: will Russia annex LPR and DPR like was done with extremely short lived independent Republic of Crimea? I'd guess no (edit: at least at this time, if there's an invasion of any Ukrainian held territory, then then my guess becomes yes) since Crimea was (and still is) extremely critical for Russia strategically with Sevastopol being the headquarters for the Black Sea Fleet.

Meanwhile, Luhansk and Donetsk are both less Russian speaking and Russian culturally/ethically identified than Crimea. (In the 2001 Ukrainian Census, which up to the present has been the one and only census held in independent Ukraine, 77% of Crimeans reported speaking Russian, while in Donetsk and Luhansk it was 74.9% and 68.8%, respectively. When it came to ethnic identity, 58% of Crimeans identified as Russian, while in Donetsk and Luhansk it was 38.2% and 39%, respectively). Finally, if Putin was to annex either the territory currently under separatist control or the whole of Luhansk and Donetsk Oblasts, he loses his leverage over Ukrainian politics which is the dangling carrot of separatist area reintegration into Ukraine.

Edit: It also came to my mind that the "little green men" in Crimea were never declared "peacekeepers" by the Russian government, while in Putin's prerecorded speech it was specified the Russian forces going into the DPR and LPR were "peacekeepers".
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Storr
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #17 on: February 21, 2022, 08:00:44 PM »

Switzerland is non-neutral




Switzerland voted in favor of United Nations General Assembly Resolution 68/262 which affirmed the UN's commitment to Ukraine's "internationally recognized borders" in 2014. It's still good for a famously neutral nation with a strong reputation internationally to publicly support Ukraine at this critical moment.

All of Europe (including Turkey and the Caucuses) voted for the resolution except for five. Bosnia and Herzegovina and Serbia were absent (I guess their representatives were out for lunch, heh). The three others were Russia, Belarus, and Armenia which unsurprisingly voted against the resolution.
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Storr
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #18 on: February 21, 2022, 08:59:34 PM »
« Edited: February 21, 2022, 09:03:47 PM by Storr »

I haven't mentioned my thoughts on Russia's recognition of the LPR and DPR as independent states and this post I made in the "Biden needs to act more like Trump" thread in USGD gives an impression of them (I made a dumb and thought it said Putin instead of Trump, but it shows just how ridiculous Russia's position is.):

I agree, Biden should make nationally televised definitely not prerecorded speech (don't look at his watch) claiming Canada was a nation created by British imperialists and that it has no right to exist. Then Biden should finish his speech by recognizing the independence of Quebec and announcing the deployment of US military "peacekeepers" into newly liberated Montreal and the rest of République Québec.
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Storr
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #19 on: February 22, 2022, 01:26:20 PM »
« Edited: February 22, 2022, 01:30:33 PM by Storr »

Russia pulls diplomatic staff out of Ukraine, the Russian Foreign Ministry claims the action was taken due to "threats of physical violence" against staff: https://www.politico.eu/article/live-blog-ukraine-invasion-putin-donetsk-luhansk/#1286632
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Storr
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #20 on: February 22, 2022, 02:20:25 PM »


According to livemap.com, Ukraine is reporting that water service has been cut to Popansa due to "shelling of water supply station near Zolote-3 village". Zolote-3 appears to be about 2 miles North of Pervomaisk. Popansa is about 5 miles West of Pervomaisk (which is nearly all held by separatists except for some outskirts), so it seems probable these reports are the same event.

https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/22-february-water-supply-cut-to-popasna-town-as-result-of
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Storr
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« Reply #21 on: February 23, 2022, 01:47:57 PM »

And we have an update on who’s supporting Russia! To the surprise of exactly no one, in addition to Syria, Belarus, Cuba, Nicaragua, and Venezuela have come out in support of Russia. Gee, there’s a shining example of stalwart anti-imperialist states opposed to violations of national sovereignty. And they’re such paragons of human rights as well! Truly they’re exactly the type of company one should keep for those champions of revolution worldwide.
.
China has stayed mute.

So is Vietnam.

Vietnam will stay neutral. They want America’s friendship for economic and security reasons but they are very pro Russia. A huge portion of the Vietnamese elite was educated there during Soviet times.
Exactly, they want strong friends to keep help the Chinese at bay. Vietnam was ruled by imperial China for several centuries and the two countries even fought a brief war in 1979.
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Storr
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #22 on: February 23, 2022, 08:08:47 PM »
« Edited: February 23, 2022, 08:21:36 PM by Storr »


If true, this meeting would be after the reported possible 04:00 invasion start time The Impartial Spectator shared from twitter, since 21:30 EST is 05:30 Moscow Time.  

Edit: I just realized 04:00 MSK was 15 minutes ago. So if it was zero hour, I guess we'll be hearing about it soon.
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Storr
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #23 on: February 23, 2022, 08:49:57 PM »
« Edited: February 23, 2022, 08:56:09 PM by Storr »

Merely symbolic. I wouldn't be surprised to see Russian propaganda use it to further "prove" the Ukrainian government is fascist.



Edit: I'm sure Ukraine would rather have those ex-Soviet D-30 howitzers from Estonia that Germany blocked the sale of than a pretty light show.
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Storr
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #24 on: February 23, 2022, 09:02:22 PM »

Flights in and out of Ukraine are making movements indicating possible or imminent closure of Ukrainian airspace:



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