Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Logical]

There are actual border clashes and encroachments taking place right now in the Caucasus instead of this nothingburger.

[Logical]

Russian Air Assault at a military airport close to Kyiv. 30+ helicopters. Going for the head.

[Logical]

Question
1. Can we now say the amphibious assault on Odessa was Russian disinformation?
2. Was there a even a VDV attack on Kyiv, if so, was it in fact repelled?

1. Yes
2. VDV is in control of the Antonov Airport for now. Ukrainians are counter attacking and a battle is raging.

[Logical]

I don't know how accurate this is (found it on twitter), but this seems to be an informative graphic on the dispositions of Ukrainian and Russian Forces as of yesterday night, tracked using OSInt.

[Logical]

I can't help but feel that given almost 90 days of preparation the Ukraine could have made plans to turn the road to Kiev a bigger hardship than it is. A swarm of small AT units and some artillery support could have slowed the Russians down significantly.
Or in Kherson for that matter where the Russians moving out of Crimean moved almost 80km with no resistance.


It seems the Donbass (which is awfully quite today) is the only place the Ukrainians had any solid defence plan

You can't really defend the southern parts of Kherson. It's flat, low lying and vulnerable to air-sea bombardment. When you are on the weaker side you have to choose your battlefields wisely.

[Logical]

I can't help but feel that given almost 90 days of preparation the Ukraine could have made plans to turn the road to Kiev a bigger hardship than it is. A swarm of small AT units and some artillery support could have slowed the Russians down significantly.
Or in Kherson for that matter where the Russians moving out of Crimean moved almost 80km with no resistance.


It seems the Donbass (which is awfully quite today) is the only place the Ukrainians had any solid defence plan

You can't really defend the southern parts of Kherson. It's flat, low lying and vulnerable to air-sea bombardment. When you are on the weaker side you have to choose your battlefields wisely.

What's actually going on in the Donbass? I thought Mariupol would come under attack already

Ukrainian units facing the Donbass separatists are experienced, well dug in and at full strength. Russian attacks there have made no significant breakthroughs.

[Logical]

I can't help but feel that given almost 90 days of preparation the Ukraine could have made plans to turn the road to Kiev a bigger hardship than it is. A swarm of small AT units and some artillery support could have slowed the Russians down significantly.
Or in Kherson for that matter where the Russians moving out of Crimean moved almost 80km with no resistance.


It seems the Donbass (which is awfully quite today) is the only place the Ukrainians had any solid defence plan

You can't really defend the southern parts of Kherson. It's flat, low lying and vulnerable to air-sea bombardment. When you are on the weaker side you have to choose your battlefields wisely.

What's actually going on in the Donbass? I thought Mariupol would come under attack already

Ukrainian units facing the Donbass separatists are experienced, well dug in and at full strength. Russian attacks there have made no significant breakthroughs.

So what's the Russian game plan here? come from Crimean and Khrakov and take them from behind?

So far today the news from the area was sparse part the Ukrainian strike on the Russian air base

That seems to be the plan. The main axes of the attack are at Kharkiv and from Crimea instead of Donetsk and Luhansk.

[Logical]

The spoiled brats are unhappy.
https://twitter.com/zakavkaza/status/1497165665467346944

[Logical]

I understand you all are trying to keep your morale up posting pro-Ukraine propaganda, but seriously, this is just Day 3 of the operation.

The only way Ukraine will "win" is if Putin orders a retreat. Again, "Black Swan Event" notwithstanding, fat chance of that happening now that he's being egged on by Xi and Hegel's Spirit of History.

Nobody worth listening to actually thinks that Ukraine can win a conventional war if Russia chooses to unleash its full firepower. They can, however, make it so costly for Putin politically to capture the major cities that he is forced back into the negotiating table with more acceptable terms.

[Logical]

Strategic situation as of the second day. Russians have committed barely half of its available Battalion Tactical Groups. There are reports that they will soon open up another front from Brest to strike at Western Ukraine.

[Logical]

He probably got lost or something but this is very embarrassing.
https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1497603319526834183?t=ngKjVYRWIPcKWKPuived...

[Logical]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-update-9

Key Takeaways

• Russia has failed to encircle and isolate Kyiv with mechanized and airborne attacks as it had clearly planned to do. Russian forces are now engaging in more straightforward mechanized drives into Kyiv along a narrow front on the west bank of the Dnipro River and on a broad front to the northeast.
• Russian forces temporarily abandoned efforts to seize Chernihiv and Kharkiv to the northeast and east of Kyiv and are bypassing those cities to continue their drive on Kyiv. Failed Russian attacks against both cities were poorly designed and executed and encountered more determined and effective resistance than Russia likely expected.
• Russian successes in southern Ukraine are the most dangerous and threaten to unhinge Ukraine’s successful defenses and rearguard actions to the north and northeast.
• Russian forces in eastern Ukraine remain focused on pinning the large concentration of Ukrainian forces arrayed along the former line of contact in the east, likely to prevent them from interfering with Russian drives on Kyiv and to facilitate their encirclement and destruction.
• Ukrainian forces retook the critical city of Kherson and Russian forces halted their drive on Odessa. Some Russian troops remain west of the Dnipro River and are advancing on Mykolaiv, but the main axes of advance have shifted to the north and east toward Zaporizhie and Mariupol respectively.
• Russian forces have taken the critical city of Berdyansk from the west, threatening to encircle Mariupol with Russian forces in Donbas attacking Mariupol from the east, likely to pin defenders in the city.
• Russian troops are facing growing morale and logistics issues, predictable consequences of the poor planning, coordination, and execution of attacks along Ukraine’s northern border.
  
• The United States, Canada, and European allies removed select Russian banks from the SWIFT global financial network and agreed to additional measures that could significantly increase economic pressure on Russia.
• The United States, Germany, and the United Kingdom facilitated a significant expansion of NATO countries’ lethal aid shipments to Ukraine since the Russian invasion began.
• NATO countries began contributing forces to NATO Response Force (NRF) operations in Eastern Europe, reinforcing NATO’s eastern flank.
• Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is set to displace millions of Ukrainians internally and throughout eastern Europe; at least 150,000 Ukrainians have fled the country as of February 26 as urban fighting intensifies.
• Kremlin censors increased crackdowns on independent media amid growing Russian opposition to the war.

[Logical]

During the 2020 Karabakh War there were three seperate ceasefires brokered by Russia, USA and France, all broken within hours. As long as one side feels that it could achieve its objectives militarily then truce may be violated at any time. Ukraine should remain wary and vigilant as these negotiations may be conducted in bad faith.

[Logical]

This is the first Russian Foreign Minister from 1990-1996. He does not think the Russians are serious.
https://twitter.com/andreivkozyrev/status/1497949890084753411?t=FiQ1lQxS09L7wwT2...

[Logical]

The Ukrainian position in the Southern Theater is critical. I don't see Mariupol standing for long. Ukrainian forces in the Donbass must make a choice, retreat or be cut off.
https://twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/1497965228868481033?t=f-PoeIxRdFzHE-cd4lbM...

[Logical]

Nice job, Putin.

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1498035056174149640

Very kind of Russian soldiers to pause their invasion to partake in this poll and express their dissatisfaction of Zelensky.

[Logical]

Russia moment



^{Stolen from r/noncredibledefense}

What do the Zs mean again? I think this one is my favorite meme so far.

Z means Russian vehicles. O means Ukrainian vehicles. The Russians and Ukrainians have the same vehicles and uniforms, so there exists a need to distinguish between the two.

Incorrect. Here's the National Guard of Ukraine's explanation for these markings. Ukrainian vehicles are not marked.
https://twitter.com/ng_ukraine/status/1497905325499981825

Z - the eastern forces of the Russian federation (Kharkiv/Sumy axis)
Z squared - forces from the Crimea (Crimea/Kherson axis)
O - forces from Belarus (Kiev axis)
V - Marines
X - Chechens
A - Special Forces (SOBR, ALPHA, SSO)

[Logical]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-update-10

Key Takeaways February 27

• Russian President Vladimir Putin put Russia’s nuclear and strategic missile forces, described as “deterrence forces,” on their highest alert status in response to “aggressive statements in the West” on February 27.
• Russian forces likely conducted an operational pause on the Kyiv axis on February 26-27 to deploy additional supplies and forces forward. Russian forces will likely resume offensive operations against Kyiv in the next 24 hours.
• Russian forces largely conducted an operational pause on their current broad front of advance between Chernihiv and Kharkiv. Ukrainian forces continue to delay and inflict losses on the Russian advance but will likely not be able to halt further advances if the Kremlin commits additional reserves.
• Russian forces entered the city of Kharkiv for the first time on February 27 but remain unlikely to take the city without the use of heavier firepower.
• Russian forces have encircled Mariupol from the west and began initial assaults on the city. Russian forces have not made any major territorial gains from the east in Donbas after four days of fighting. Russian forces likely intend to pin Ukrainian forces in place on the line of contact to enable Russian forces breaking out of Crimea to isolate them.
  
• Russian forces continued to advance north from Crimea towards Zaprozhia and, in conjunction with Russian advances on Mariupol, threaten to isolate Ukrainian forces on the line of contact in Donbas if they do not withdraw.
  
• Russian forces failed to seize Kherson after Ukrainian counterattacks reclaimed it on February 26. An unknown concentration of Russian forces remains on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River and threatens Mikolayiv, however.
• Russian successes in southern Ukraine are the most dangerous and threaten to unhinge Ukraine’s successful defenses and rearguard actions to the north and northeast.
  
• The Belarusian government is setting information and legal conditions to justify a Belarusian offensive against Ukraine and the imminent deployment of Russian nuclear weapons in Belarus as of February 27.
• US and allied sanctions against Russian banking will likely crush Russian foreign currency reserves, depleting the value of the ruble and risking Russian hyperinflation.
• The European Union announced direct military aid to Ukraine for the first time in EU history on February 27.
• Germany announced a dramatic reorientation of its foreign policy to mitigate the threat that Russia poses to Germany and its allies. Germany will prioritize military spending and energy independence despite short-term economic costs.

[Logical]

If one is interested in the effect of weather on operations and logistics, I recommend reading Prit Buttar's excellent trilogy on the fight for Ukraine 1942-1944.

[Logical]

Kharkiv is a Russophile city and if I remember correctly was the largest pro Russian city in the aftermath of Maidan. The Russians are killing and turning people that should nominally support them against.

[Logical]

Much as I'd like to see peace these talks are a sham. Kremlin sent some third tier Putin stooge no one has ever heard of and the Ukrainians immediately opened the talks by demanding Russians withdraw from every bit of Ukraine including Crimea and the LDPR.

[Logical]

https://mobile.twitter.com/tvrain/status/1498319404660142084
Putin spoke with Macron According to the Kremlin, a settlement with Ukraine is possible if "taking into account the legitimate interests of Russia in the field of security":
- recognition of Russian sovereignty over Crimea
- demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine
- ensuring the neutral status of Ukraine

No signs of a climb down from Putin yet.

[Logical]

Hungary will not allow lethal weapons for Ukraine to transit its territory - FM

PRISTINA, Feb 28 (Reuters) - Hungary will not send troops or weapons to Ukraine and will not allow lethal weapons to transit its territory in order to keep the country safe, Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto said on Monday during a visit to Kosovo.

https://www.reuters.com/world/hungary-will-not-allow-lethal-weapons-ukraine-transit-its-territory-fm-2022-02-28/

First crack in the European coalition. Ukraine and Putin will now be an important issue in the upcoming elections in Hungary.

[Logical]

For all the talk about denazification and stopping a genocide, it bears repeating that the people being bombed with cluster munitions are the Russian speaking civilians of Kharkiv.

[Logical]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-update-11

Key Takeaways

• Russia deployed additional heavy forces and artillery that it has so far failed to employ in assaults on Kyiv to the city’s western approach on February 27-28. Russian forces will likely launch a renewed assault on western Kyiv on March 1.
• Russian forces began using heavy artillery against central Kharkiv on February 28, indicating a dangerous inflection in Russian operations as the Kremlin chooses to use air and artillery assets it has held in reserve to date.
• Russian forces resumed limited advances in northeastern Ukraine on February 28 after an operational pause on February 26-27.
• Russian and proxy forces resumed assaults on Ukrainian forces defending Mariupol from the east and deployed additional artillery and anti-tank guided missile (ATGM) assets to the Mariupol front line on February 28. Russian forces may attempt a renewed assault on Mariupol in the coming days.
• Russian forces increasingly targeted Ukrainian airfields and logistics centers on February 28, particularly in western Ukraine. Russia likely seeks to ground the Ukrainian air force and interdict the ability of Western states to resupply the Ukrainian military.
• Russian and Belarusian forces may be preparing for an additional line of advance from Belarus into western Ukraine.
• Russian successes in southern Ukraine are the most dangerous and threaten to unhinge Ukraine’s successful defenses and rearguard actions to the north and northeast.
• Russian troops are facing growing morale and logistics issues, predictable consequences of the poor planning, coordination, and execution of attacks along Ukraine’s northern border.