Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[MyLifeIsYours]

Meanwhile, the U.S. state propagandist is riffing some Neil Young during these castrophic times.

https://twitter.com/davidslavick/status/1790501905484894267

[Hindsight was 2020]

Meanwhile, the U.S. state propagandist is riffing some Neil Young during these castrophic times.

https://twitter.com/davidslavick/status/1790501905484894267

Actually Ukrainians seem fine with it so you can save the virtue signaling

[Red Velvet]

Meanwhile, the U.S. state propagandist is riffing some Neil Young during these castrophic times.

https://twitter.com/davidslavick/status/1790501905484894267

Actually Ukrainians seem fine with it so you can save the virtue signaling

Because it’s the country giving them money when they need it, of course they will accept and clap everything coming from there.

Still doesn’t make it any less cringe and Ukrainians (and everyone else) are aware of it.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Meanwhile, the U.S. state propagandist is riffing some Neil Young during these castrophic times.

https://twitter.com/davidslavick/status/1790501905484894267

Actually Ukrainians seem fine with it so you can save the virtue signaling

Because it’s the country giving them money when they need it, of course they will accept and clap everything coming from there.

Still doesn’t make it any less cringe and Ukrainians (and everyone else) are aware of it.

You have no idea about the Ukrainian people or their character you BRICS simp

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

I'd love to hear an explanation for why Blinken, a well-known hobbyist guitarist who I think has some songs on Bandcamp or Soundcloud or something, playing a guitar and singing a Neil Young song in Kyiv is supposed to be "cringe" from a perspective that does not presuppose that America Bad, Ukraine Bad, Russia Bastion of Freedom.

It's fascinating the gulf that's emerging between the increasingly dire land war and the constant embarrassments that Russia is still suffering aerially and navally. There's no Alfred Thayer Mahan-approved explanation for this!

[Woody]

Ukrainians have withdrawn from the northern section of Vovchansk (Everything north of the Vovcha river)

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/WarWatchs/status/1791042980981178848

note: in the background you can see they took the liberty of changing the ukrainian spelling of the town in the welcome sign to the russian one

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It's incredible to some extent how we have a war in which a social media platform would be an important source of primary information.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1791071087628841187?s=12
🤬

[Storr]

I guess it's up to interpretation what exactly "under control" means.

"Ukrainian General Staff: The situation in the town of Vovchans'k is under control. As of now, since the beginning of the day (16 May), the losses of the enemy in the Kharkiv direction amounted to 160 occupants in personnel and 21 units of weapons and military equipment."

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1791222113648455830

[Hindsight was 2020]

I guess it's up to interpretation what exactly "under control" means.

"Ukrainian General Staff: The situation in the town of Vovchans'k is under control. As of now, since the beginning of the day (16 May), the losses of the enemy in the Kharkiv direction amounted to 160 occupants in personnel and 21 units of weapons and military equipment."

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1791222113648455830

Deepstate has most of the city as a grey zone but most on the ground telegram reports who tend to be the pessimistic types have been giving out positive reports about the situation so 🤷‍♂️

[Hindsight was 2020]

On a sidenote the atacms have been working well lately
https://twitter.com/kromark/status/1791200199731556585
https://twitter.com/LXSummer1/status/1791272969722900678/video/1

[Lykaon]

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1791306754661499243

Tuapse refinery (4% of russia's pre-war output) is on fire again. Only a week or two after they fixed it from the last time. Keep choking off russia’s only economic driver

[Woody]

Putin in China:

Putin says Russian army has no orders to capture Kharkiv, troops are creating "sanitary zone" near the border

The president announced this at a briefing following the Russian-Chinese negotiations in Harbin. According to Putin, the offensive in the Kharkov direction is connected with the creation of a sanitary zone in response to shelling. There are currently no plans to take control of Kharkov.

https://t.me/ostorozhno_novosti/26238

[Woody]

Washington Post: Russia has gained more land in one month (April to May 2024), than Ukraine ever did during it's counteroffensive (June to December 2023)

The amount of territory Russia has occupied over the last several weeks is about as large as the territory Ukraine retook during its lackluster spring counteroffensive in 2023.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/05/17/russia-ukraine-front-line-gains/

[Beet]

I missed this, from the NY Times last December. It says Russia is willing to do an armistice at current lines. If so, that's good news. It further reinforces my belief that Putin never expected much Ukrainian resistance, he has been repeatedly humiliated and already regrets the "SMO". He is looking for a way out. Given the stalemate of the current fighting, and it's cost in lives for very little if any gain, I think the U.S. and Ukraine should agree.

The continuation of the war is a fiscal and humanitarian disaster, most of all for Ukraine, which desperately needs a chance to rebuild. It is losing an entire generation of young men on top of already dire demographic problems. It cannot hold elections. It's economy is stuck in war mode. Unless you're literally Palantir/Lockheed Martin or someone who actively relishes the deaths of Ukrainians and Russians, or a pro-Russian who wants Russia to conquer more territory, there is zero benefit to this war anymore. If Russia is willing to do an armistice, we should come to the table.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/23/world/europe/putin-russia-ukraine-war-cease-fire.html

[Hindsight was 2020]

I missed this, from the NY Times last December. It says Russia is willing to do an armistice at current lines. If so, that's good news. It further reinforces my belief that Putin never expected much Ukrainian resistance, he has been repeatedly humiliated and already regrets the "SMO". He is looking for a way out. Given the stalemate of the current fighting, and it's cost in lives for very little if any gain, I think the U.S. and Ukraine should agree.

The continuation of the war is a fiscal and humanitarian disaster, most of all for Ukraine, which desperately needs a chance to rebuild. It is losing an entire generation of young men on top of already dire demographic problems. It cannot hold elections. It's economy is stuck in war mode. Unless you're literally Palantir/Lockheed Martin or someone who actively relishes the deaths of Ukrainians and Russians, or a pro-Russian who wants Russia to conquer more territory, there is zero benefit to this war anymore. If Russia is willing to do an armistice, we should come to the table.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/23/world/europe/putin-russia-ukraine-war-cease-fire.html

Or you saw Putin run the exact playbook in Chechnya and know he’s full of crap and just wants a pause to rebuild and reorganize for round 2

[lfromnj]

I missed this, from the NY Times last December. It says Russia is willing to do an armistice at current lines. If so, that's good news. It further reinforces my belief that Putin never expected much Ukrainian resistance, he has been repeatedly humiliated and already regrets the "SMO". He is looking for a way out. Given the stalemate of the current fighting, and it's cost in lives for very little if any gain, I think the U.S. and Ukraine should agree.

The continuation of the war is a fiscal and humanitarian disaster, most of all for Ukraine, which desperately needs a chance to rebuild. It is losing an entire generation of young men on top of already dire demographic problems. It cannot hold elections. It's economy is stuck in war mode. Unless you're literally Palantir/Lockheed Martin or someone who actively relishes the deaths of Ukrainians and Russians, or a pro-Russian who wants Russia to conquer more territory, there is zero benefit to this war anymore. If Russia is willing to do an armistice, we should come to the table.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/23/world/europe/putin-russia-ukraine-war-cease-fire.html

Or you saw Putin run the exact playbook in Chechnya and know he’s full of crap and just wants a pause to rebuild and reorganize for round 2

The 1st Chechen war was Yeltsin

[Hindsight was 2020]

I missed this, from the NY Times last December. It says Russia is willing to do an armistice at current lines. If so, that's good news. It further reinforces my belief that Putin never expected much Ukrainian resistance, he has been repeatedly humiliated and already regrets the "SMO". He is looking for a way out. Given the stalemate of the current fighting, and it's cost in lives for very little if any gain, I think the U.S. and Ukraine should agree.

The continuation of the war is a fiscal and humanitarian disaster, most of all for Ukraine, which desperately needs a chance to rebuild. It is losing an entire generation of young men on top of already dire demographic problems. It cannot hold elections. It's economy is stuck in war mode. Unless you're literally Palantir/Lockheed Martin or someone who actively relishes the deaths of Ukrainians and Russians, or a pro-Russian who wants Russia to conquer more territory, there is zero benefit to this war anymore. If Russia is willing to do an armistice, we should come to the table.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/23/world/europe/putin-russia-ukraine-war-cease-fire.html

Or you saw Putin run the exact playbook in Chechnya and know he’s full of crap and just wants a pause to rebuild and reorganize for round 2

The 1st Chechen war was Yeltsin

Putin used stop and start tactics in the 2nd and was involved in the Yeltsin government when the first was happening

[Lykaon]

I missed this, from the NY Times last December. It says Russia is willing to do an armistice at current lines. If so, that's good news. It further reinforces my belief that Putin never expected much Ukrainian resistance, he has been repeatedly humiliated and already regrets the "SMO". He is looking for a way out. Given the stalemate of the current fighting, and it's cost in lives for very little if any gain, I think the U.S. and Ukraine should agree.

The continuation of the war is a fiscal and humanitarian disaster, most of all for Ukraine, which desperately needs a chance to rebuild. It is losing an entire generation of young men on top of already dire demographic problems. It cannot hold elections. It's economy is stuck in war mode. Unless you're literally Palantir/Lockheed Martin or someone who actively relishes the deaths of Ukrainians and Russians, or a pro-Russian who wants Russia to conquer more territory, there is zero benefit to this war anymore. If Russia is willing to do an armistice, we should come to the table.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/23/world/europe/putin-russia-ukraine-war-cease-fire.html

Or you saw Putin run the exact playbook in Chechnya and know he’s full of crap and just wants a pause to rebuild and reorganize for round 2

The 1st Chechen war was Yeltsin

Putin used stop and start tactics in the 2nd and was involved in the Yeltsin government when the first was happening

It’s really questionable how much Yeltsin was still there in the late 90s. I’d argue after 96 or so that’s when the siloviki and Putin really started to take over and build the regime. Chechnya 2 bring in 99-00, that was absolutely Putler

[Beet]

Chechnya never had any significant Western support. Russia committed horrendous atrocities in Chechnya that probably rise to the level of a genocide, but hardly anyone cared. If anything, the West supported Russia more and regarded the Chechens as evil Muslim terrorists, after Beslan. The West never supported any of Putin's victims in a serious way until Ukraine. He thought Ukraine was going to be another cakewalk just like Chechnya, Georgia, Syria, and Ukraine 2014.

This is very different. Putin has finally gotten punched in the face, and punched badly. He has lost his teeth, dislocated his jaw. Previously, he was just like a man who sees a $100 bill lying on the street, free for the taking. Well, he might pocket it for himself one, two, three, four times. But if on the fifth time, he is accosted by a police officer, beaten up, and sent to jail, then he will not do it again.

He is more pragmatic than it may seem. He doesn't want to be in a major war, and never did. Essentially, deterrence has been established. There is no rational dictator in the world, not Xi, not Maduro, not Kim, who looks at what happened to Russia since 2022, the casualty numbers, the losses of equipment and material, the economic sanctions, the devastation in territories being fought over, the territorial reverses, the near coup-d'etat, and thinks "Yes, I want that."

[Hollywood]

Washington Post: Russia has gained more land in one month (April to May 2024), than Ukraine ever did during it's counteroffensive (June to December 2023)

The amount of territory Russia has occupied over the last several weeks is about as large as the territory Ukraine retook during its lackluster spring counteroffensive in 2023.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/05/17/russia-ukraine-front-line-gains/

Even though Russian sources have said this week that their Troops may have been slowed down by UAF reinforcement, footage clearly indicates that Ukraine is unable to put together a competent defense along the Kharkiv directions, and they expect another spearhead into Sumy.  Faster Russian gains along the entire front is expected at this point, and mappers can't keep up with the changes that occurred in Luhansk, Donetsk, and Zaporizhzhia.  I haven't seen any consistent images or videos of Ukraine inflicting heavy losses on Russia.  None.  I don't even know if they can do it anymore. Meanwhile, the losses Ukraine is suffering on the Kharkiv front are completely unsustainable, and they're defense. They literally cannot move armored vehicles, tanks, or equipment into areas without it getting creamed by drones, planes, or missiles.  They can't even place artillery or anti-aircraft systems outside of Kharkiv City.

Russia has Ukraine on the Ropes.  It's not hyperbole.  It's reality.  They just need one more spearhead through/towards Chasiv Yar, Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, or Velyka to achieve victory in Donetsk, as well as a collapse of defensive lines protecting Luhansk from the South. 

[Storr]

I'm guessing a "friendly" regime in Ukraine from Putin's perspective would be Belarus 2.0:

"In my recent piece in Foreign Affairs, I argued that nobody in Moscow is looking for an exit strategy from the war; rather, people are prepared to fight as long as it takes. Many interpreted this as a thesis that Moscow will not negotiate with Ukraine or agree to a ceasefire. That is not what I was saying. Here are several points to make my understanding more nuanced:

There is no discussion among senior officials in the Kremlin about negotiating with Ukraine or what compromises could be reached with Kyiv or the West. Decision-making on this issue is monopolized by Putin, and many senior officials simply guess what he wants but do not dare to initiate anything. The common belief is that Russia is winning, advancing successfully, and has the upper hand in Ukraine. Hence, they see no point in talking to the West, let alone Ukraine.

Putin does not aim to storm Odessa, Kyiv, or even Kharkiv. First, he lacks the army for that. Second, he does not want to engage in large-scale battles. His strategy is to impose on Ukraine military pressure, diminish military infrastructure, and intimidate locals to coerce Kyiv into surrendering and accepting Russian demands. He will only take what he believes he can, given his limited military capacity and wait when Ukraine falls.

Yes, Putin wants to talk, but strictly on Russian terms. He is concerned that a pause might be used by the West and Ukraine to rearm. Because of this, he will be extremely cautious about the conditions of any talks

He will not talk to Zelensky, as he does not believe Zelensky can deliver what Russia wants from Ukraine. Moscow has been signalling for months that the West must remove Zelensky. However, if Zelensky were to lift the ban on talks with Russia and open a window for negotiations, Putin might seize this opportunity (as a showcase and temporarily)—not to start real talks, but to demonstrate his readiness for negotiations, expecting, as well, it to accelerate Zelensky’s departure. Putin might also agree to a tactical ceasefire if reassured that it would not be used to rearm Ukraine and if he sees Ukraine is desperate and ready to discuss Russian demands.

So, what are Russia’s demands? Putin’s flexibility will depend on the progress on three tracks, which are inter-dependable:

1. Washington’s position: If Putin has any hope that the US might consider an "ironclad" ban on Ukraine’s NATO membership and other guarantees of neutrality, his position on two other tracks might soften.
2. Kyiv’s readiness to consider political demands: Putin wants a "friendly" regime in Ukraine—one that would exclude the emergence of anti-Russian forces. I will not go into details here, but If he believes he can achieve this, he may be flexible on territorial matters. It is important to say that I do not believe this is ever possible, but in Putin’s vision, it is no problem if Odessa remains Ukrainian as long as Ukraine is “friendly.”
3. Territorial Matters: If there is no progress on the first two tracks, Putin will continue a creeping offensive for as long as needed. If he is more successful militarily and gain more territories, he will become more contemptuous about first and second tracks.

The point of my article in Foreign Affairs was that if there is no sign from the West that serious talks are possible (in Putin’s eyes and those of the Russian ruling elite there are no such signs), the only path is further escalation. No one is concerned about this unless it brings us to the brink of nuclear war—an eventuality that might split the elite (I do not urge to provoke the nuclear escalation). Until then, the political class will stick with Putin and support his military ambitions."

https://twitter.com/Stanovaya/status/1791534488641544356

[Hollywood]

I'm guessing a "friendly" regime in Ukraine from Putin's perspective would be Belarus 2.0:

"In my recent piece in Foreign Affairs, I argued that nobody in Moscow is looking for an exit strategy from the war; rather, people are prepared to fight as long as it takes. Many interpreted this as a thesis that Moscow will not negotiate with Ukraine or agree to a ceasefire. That is not what I was saying. Here are several points to make my understanding more nuanced:

There is no discussion among senior officials in the Kremlin about negotiating with Ukraine or what compromises could be reached with Kyiv or the West. Decision-making on this issue is monopolized by Putin, and many senior officials simply guess what he wants but do not dare to initiate anything. The common belief is that Russia is winning, advancing successfully, and has the upper hand in Ukraine. Hence, they see no point in talking to the West, let alone Ukraine.

Putin does not aim to storm Odessa, Kyiv, or even Kharkiv. First, he lacks the army for that. Second, he does not want to engage in large-scale battles. His strategy is to impose on Ukraine military pressure, diminish military infrastructure, and intimidate locals to coerce Kyiv into surrendering and accepting Russian demands. He will only take what he believes he can, given his limited military capacity and wait when Ukraine falls.

Yes, Putin wants to talk, but strictly on Russian terms. He is concerned that a pause might be used by the West and Ukraine to rearm. Because of this, he will be extremely cautious about the conditions of any talks

He will not talk to Zelensky, as he does not believe Zelensky can deliver what Russia wants from Ukraine. Moscow has been signalling for months that the West must remove Zelensky. However, if Zelensky were to lift the ban on talks with Russia and open a window for negotiations, Putin might seize this opportunity (as a showcase and temporarily)—not to start real talks, but to demonstrate his readiness for negotiations, expecting, as well, it to accelerate Zelensky’s departure. Putin might also agree to a tactical ceasefire if reassured that it would not be used to rearm Ukraine and if he sees Ukraine is desperate and ready to discuss Russian demands.

So, what are Russia’s demands? Putin’s flexibility will depend on the progress on three tracks, which are inter-dependable:

1. Washington’s position: If Putin has any hope that the US might consider an "ironclad" ban on Ukraine’s NATO membership and other guarantees of neutrality, his position on two other tracks might soften.
2. Kyiv’s readiness to consider political demands: Putin wants a "friendly" regime in Ukraine—one that would exclude the emergence of anti-Russian forces. I will not go into details here, but If he believes he can achieve this, he may be flexible on territorial matters. It is important to say that I do not believe this is ever possible, but in Putin’s vision, it is no problem if Odessa remains Ukrainian as long as Ukraine is “friendly.”
3. Territorial Matters: If there is no progress on the first two tracks, Putin will continue a creeping offensive for as long as needed. If he is more successful militarily and gain more territories, he will become more contemptuous about first and second tracks.

The point of my article in Foreign Affairs was that if there is no sign from the West that serious talks are possible (in Putin’s eyes and those of the Russian ruling elite there are no such signs), the only path is further escalation. No one is concerned about this unless it brings us to the brink of nuclear war—an eventuality that might split the elite (I do not urge to provoke the nuclear escalation). Until then, the political class will stick with Putin and support his military ambitions."

https://twitter.com/Stanovaya/status/1791534488641544356

     
WTF is Washington's positions, again? Russia is supposed to hope they concede to some intangible BS?  Sure we might consider not arming Ukraine or advancing their membership to NATO. Wink Wink. We should pause the conflict to further discuss these terms and disregards all the public suggestions that demonstrate our intent to manipulate you. We need to show our voters that were reasonable, but also that we can arm-wrestle you to the floor, so then we can say "We tried. Putin doesn't plan to stop his invasion of Europe, so we have to send more resources to Ukraine. They've escalated by dropping chemical weapons but ignore the videos of Ukrainians bragging about the chemicals weapons their manufacturing, and the ones where they drop those chemical weapons."  The reality is that Putin and Russian Elites were talking about negotiations a long time ago, but there is no longer any path to peace with Biden and Zelensky.  That ended when Russia realized that the Ukrainian Offensive gave them an open path to victory, and those fortification built in the South and East gave Putin the time to field a powerful army while Zelensky played into the Russian attrition strategy by sacrificing his best for nothing.     

The common belief is that Russia is winning the war cause evidence points towards growing Russian momentum whilst increasing their military superiority over Ukraine despite assistance from NATO countries.  Russia doesn't have to directly assault Kharkiv anymore, because Ukraine doesn't have enough men to defend the front.  They just have to walk around and surround it while their ample supply of drones, artillery shells, air bombardments, and missiles annihilate anything that tries to touch them.  And now Ukraine is losing functionality of their drones due to the Russian Electronic Warfare and Turtle Tanks. The UAF can't even fly a drone to track their movements.  That's a nightmare.  There's no negotiation ATM, because Ukraine is literally on the ropes.   

[Frodo]

If we are going to be sending troops/trainers into the country, I would rather we go in guns blazing in a massive Gulf War-style intervention with hundreds of thousands of troops and all of NATO involved, ending the war in one fell swoop (and calling Putin's bluff when it comes to nuclear weapons).  Not like this:

As Russia Advances, NATO Considers Sending Trainers Into Ukraine
The move could draw the United States and Europe more directly into the war. The Biden administration continues to say there will be no American troops on the ground.

NATO allies are inching closer to sending troops into Ukraine to train Ukrainian forces, a move that would be another blurring of a previous red line and could draw the United States and Europe more directly into the war.

Ukraine’s manpower shortage has reached a critical point, and its position on the battlefield in recent weeks has seriously worsened as Russia has accelerated its advances to take advantage of delays in shipments of American weapons. As a result, Ukrainian officials have asked their American and NATO counterparts to help train 150,000 new recruits closer to the front line for faster deployment.

So far the United States has said no, but Gen. Charles Q. Brown Jr., the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said on Thursday that a NATO deployment of trainers appeared inevitable. “We’ll get there eventually, over time,” he said.

For now, he said, an effort inside Ukraine would put “a bunch of NATO trainers at risk” and would most likely mean deciding whether to use precious air defenses to protect the trainers instead of critical Ukrainian infrastructure near the battlefield. General Brown briefed reporters on his plane en route to a NATO meeting in Brussels.