Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

I can see the rationale for capturing it early, before the Ukrainian government collapses. It minimises the risk of Ukranian forces making a last stand there, which could be very dangerous for an otherwise victorious Russia.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

I am baffled by the opposition of booting Russia from SWIFT from Germany and Italy. What the hell are we waiting for?

Permission from their business leaders, which isn’t coming.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

With sanctions not hitting Russian exports of raw materials and being paid for it, Russian gas started to flow again into Europe, some via Ukraine.  Gas prices fell 20% on this supply surge.  Russian equities up 12%.  Gas still way up from a few days ago and Russian equities still way down from a few days ago but the trend has reversed.

I swear, if business and material interests win out over the security and freedom of the Ukrainian people… Though I guess I really shouldn’t be surprised, they always seem to in the end.

The Cold War was about capitalism and socialism, not freedom. When two capitalist powers come up against each other, it seems, business interests will be allowed to win.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://twitter.com/RepCori/status/1497023503043899399

Doesn't she support BDS ?

“But it’s different because the Grey Zone told me everyone is rich there” - some dead-end tankies.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Putin doesn't want NATO Troops so close to his border, views it as Security Threat!

If Putin dares to do anything against Finland, NATO will attack nonetheless, in my view. Finland is a EU member, thus, if Russia attacks Finland, it's invading the EU and there's a cooperation treaty between NATO and the EU, so a military response to it would most likely happen.

I don't see EU moving without the U.S. France and Germany literally admitted in the last 48 hours their militaries are horrifically unprepared for an intense conflict.

If I'm Ukraine, and I see NATO come to the defense of Finland when they wouldn't come to the defense of me, I'm pissed.

I don't see Russia going into Finland, but a lot of people didn't see Russia going into Ukraine either (in spite of forces being stationed on the border for 3 months).

France is unprepared for a conventional war, but it has enough nukes to provide a deterrent effect and the EU defence treaties it has signed would compel it to engage in some kind of war.

The guarantee probably isn’t as strong as article 5 (in reality, a NATO or EU member could ignore any treaty) but attacking an EU member would be a much bigger gamble than attacking Ukraine.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

If Ukraine somehow is spared, it will be in spite of, and not because of Biden and NATO.

 Disagree. The material and intelligence support and support the US and nato has provided has been incalculable.  Is the sanctions less so, but still a factor.

We could have done more-looking at you Italy and Belgium refusing to wean yourself off of Russian produce luxury goods and diamonds for Pete's sake-but NATO and Biden  Did pretty much all they could hear with only some missteps.

Biden carved massive energy exceptions into his own sanctions, which he says he’ll review “in a month or so” (i.e. when he hopes there will be less political pressure to maintain them or impose more). His supply of military aid has also been incredibly lacking, especially when it comes to AA.

His response is less pathetic than some European leaders’, but still very weak.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1497467189779218433
We ought to be airlifting supplies, both civilian and military, into Lviv at a rate to rival Berlin in 1948.

A degree of secrecy about what is being delivered will minimise Russian readiness for the new gear, but it also means the West is less pressured to commit weapons that are actually useful instead of truckloads of rusting Kalashnikovs.

For instance, Ukraine probably can’t be trained to used PATRIOTs before the war ends, but some of its allies have ageing, mobile Soviet/Russian SAMs that are either out of active service or heading for the exits in a few years time. Some of these are still functional and would probably be more useful than MANPADs.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Russian leadership is increasingly insane. German media also reporters that Medvedev talked about reinstating the death penalty in Russia now that they're sanctioned anyway. I have a feeling we're at the beginning of a second Cold War and Ukraine is de facto already a proxy war.

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1497524381307838467

I think Medvedev is just looking for internal popularity after his rubber duck episode.

He’s been one of the main faces of this after Putin and Lavrov. That would not have happened just because he wanted popularity - it is likely he is regaining favour in Putin’s court.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Fwiw, if I was a younger man and had an ounce of experience and usefulness I would go to Ukraine if I could.

You are of military age and you’re not the first person I’ve heard say this.

It is better for those unwilling to fight not to say that they would if not for x, y and z. There is no shame in it: there are other means to resist aggressors than marching into a foreign land with a rifle, little grasp of Ukranian/Russian and poor training. I worry these statements of “I would fight, but for X” pressure other young men into making a dangerous and possibly wrong decision.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://mobile.twitter.com/sumlenny/status/1497681460022562816

Buratinos were seen entering Ukraine today. I hope to God they will not be used on cities.

Unlike other MLRS systems, it is a heavy thermobaric weapon .

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZiqS_k754oQ

It’s time to declare war. This is an inexcusable crime against humanity, and if we do not act now, we forever set the precedent that countries with nuclear weapons can massacre whomever they please with no tangible repercussions.

No reports yet of them being used on urban areas, and I hope it stays that way, but I guess we will see.

Anyway, you are understandably emotional about this, but frying the entire human race with nukes is no better alternative to this.

At what point does this stop? By the time this is all over with, the precedents set today will be used as justification for genocide tomorrow. Your worries are understandable, and I know full well this is a risky move…but the alternative is simply just as bad, if not worse. We face a critical decision today, do we take a huge risk now, or do we punt the football to the next generation and the next, with the world becoming progressively more bleak with each passing year?

The precedent of MLRS usage in urban areas is much older than this war.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

I am hearing of some massive shelling in Kharkiv.

The videos could be fake, but it looks like MLRS.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

If it is, in fact, MLRS, the question is whether what is happening in Kharkiv will be swiftly extended to multiple fronts or whether Putin intends to wreck one city first as an example.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

If it is, in fact, MLRS, the question is whether what is happening in Kharkiv will be swiftly extended to multiple fronts or whether Putin intends to wreck one city first as an example.

How useful MLRS’s are on a strategic level provided its psychological usage can be overcome?

I started writing a post on this, but I'm going to keep this short and would really prefer for someone with a military background to weigh in. My understanding of them from studying past conflicts is that they are generally more destructive than regular artillery in the short term (because multiple rockets are fired at once - they make up for worse accuracy by covering an area in explosions) but slower to reload in the long haul.

Thermobaric weapons (the most powerful after nukes) are used by other countries, but only the USSR and Russia have manufactured thermobaric MLRS (Ukraine has some older, weaker Soviet ones), and these have even higher payloads than the regular MLRS. In urban warfare, these have been used to solve the problem of urban combat by removing the urban areas. What happened to Grozny is a case in point.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

If the EU's Ukrainian assistance includes access to NATO's air-to-air weapons systems, then tonight is gonna be a very bad night to be a Belarusian paratrooper.

To an extent. The Ukranian air force has only trained on Soviet/Russian systems and it's not clear how many (if any) non-Soviet/Russian weapons will be compatible with these. The unconfirmed reports of non-Ukranian pilots go against multiple sources saying Ukraine requested and received MiG/Su systems from Bulgaria, Poland and Slovakia. They should be assumed to be false because they would have otherwise invited global outcry from neutral countries fearing nuclear armageddon.

"NATO's air-to-air weapons systems" in this context are probably (at their strongest) ex-Soviet weapons (or the somewhat upgraded systems used by Bulgaria, Poland and Slovakia in their MiG-29s and Su-25s). WaPo reports:

https://twitter.com/michaelbirnbaum/status/1498037892886712322
That more of these aircraft have allegedly been transferred ready-for-use is probably a bigger development, IMO. The Ukranian air force was likely to run out of operational planes before they ran out of weapons, and it's astonishing this hadn't already happened.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

We desperately need to get involved NOW.

My guy. Your country is providing equipment and military intelligence to Ukraine, and helped organise one of the most coordinated sanctions packages in history. That’s how the West intervenes.

Sending our planes, ships or troops would be the opening salvo in an East-West war and take us within inches of nuclear war. That’s why we’re running non-direct action, and that’s why I find this cheerleading so disturbing.

Last I heard, Poland is providing MiGs to Ukraine along with pilots to fly the planes. That's as damn close as we can get to actual boots on the ground without provoking a massive broader war.

I actually don't know how it doesn't count as direct intervention. I'll leave that to the strategerists.

I’m afraid the news about the MiGs may be incorrect.

Yesterday, EU foreign policy high representative Josep Borrell incorrectly implied the EU itself was delivering/funding fighter jet deliveries when that was not the case. Another diplomat who said they’d be “flying within the hour” was wildly speculating. At the present moment, an EU spokesperson has clarified, member states are able to deliver jets of their own accord, but not collectively or with guaranteed EU funding. There is ongoing discussion of further measures, and I’ve found no statement from Polish representatives confirming a delivering of any jets.

There has been movement of large transports between Poland and Ukraine, but there’s no confirmation that jets have actually been , or will be, sent (although Ukraine has requested them). If the EU is still discussing this and member states are not acting of their own accord, they may find their deliveries have no Ukranian Air Force to work with by the time they are delivered. It is also possible there simply isn’t the desire to send any, and the Russians did claim that they have air supremacy as of this morning.

All that said, if I were head of an ex-Soviet state delivering warplanes to Ukraine, I would only confirm it once those planes had been up in the air and noticed by Russia for some time. EU states gave Ukraine air-to-air missiles yesterday, so I would guess they still have functional jets.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

We desperately need to get involved NOW.

My guy. Your country is providing equipment and military intelligence to Ukraine, and helped organise one of the most coordinated sanctions packages in history. That’s how the West intervenes.

Sending our planes, ships or troops would be the opening salvo in an East-West war and take us within inches of nuclear war. That’s why we’re running non-direct action, and that’s why I find this cheerleading so disturbing.

Last I heard, Poland is providing MiGs to Ukraine along with pilots to fly the planes. That's as damn close as we can get to actual boots on the ground without provoking a massive broader war.

I actually don't know how it doesn't count as direct intervention. I'll leave that to the strategerists.

I’m afraid the news about the MiGs may be incorrect.

Yesterday, EU foreign policy high representative Josep Borrell incorrectly implied the EU itself was delivering/funding fighter jet deliveries when that was not the case. Another diplomat who said they’d be “flying within the hour” was wildly speculating. At the present moment, an EU spokesperson has clarified, member states are able to deliver jets of their own accord, but not collectively or with guaranteed EU funding. There is ongoing discussion of further measures, and I’ve found no statement from Polish representatives confirming a delivering of any jets.

There has been movement of large transports between Poland and Ukraine, but there’s no confirmation that jets have actually been , or will be, sent (although Ukraine has requested them). If the EU is still discussing this and member states are not acting of their own accord, they may find their deliveries have no Ukranian Air Force to work with by the time they are delivered. It is also possible there simply isn’t the desire to send any, and the Russians did claim that they have air supremacy as of this morning.

All that said, if I were head of an ex-Soviet state delivering warplanes to Ukraine, I would only confirm it once those planes had been up in the air and noticed by Russia for some time. EU states gave Ukraine air-to-air missiles yesterday, so I would guess they still have functional jets.

If I were Poland or whomever delivering warplanes to Ukraine, 1) I would not publicize it, and 2) if it were reported that I was, to the extent necessary, I would take a page out of the Putin playbook, and deny it, or mislead. No such planes are being delivered to Ukraine. That statement is technically true because they were delivered an hour ago, which is past tense rather than present tense.

I can see the rationale, but that’s not the strategy Poland has taken with its other weapon deliveries - at least, with the ones we know about (perhaps there’s a lot they’re hiding, but I’d have thought anything significant would be reported by someone if it was being used). Planes are too big to hide for long, especially if they aren’t receiving a coat of Ukranian paint before being sent abroad.

With respect to unconfirmed reports claiming deliveries are happening or have happened, most relate to Poland (or the trio of Poland, Bulgaria and Slovakia).

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

It looks like the EU, although perhaps not individual member states,  is going to avoid explicitly coordinating the procurement of more expensive pieces of kit.

https://mobile.twitter.com/suzannelynch1/status/1498313893038284802
My guess is that this means EU-funded SAMs (besides MANPADS) are also off the table, unless and until a larger military aid package is announced. However, a few countries have been throwing comparable sums’ worth of kit at Ukraine without EU compensation - see Lithuania delivering €350k’s worth of MANPADS in January. If the countries with MiG- and Su- planes in active service can’t get guarantees of Western replacements, they might be unwilling to part with many of their Ukranian-compatible jets.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Less gooooo

https://mobile.twitter.com/UA_Emb_FI/status/1498332538972033031

He's overplaying his hand here. Obviously the EU cannot admit a member that is in the middle of a war. Also, even if there was no contested territories within Ukraine and no war, Ukraine still needs to solve a bunch of problems, such as massive corruption, before it could even be debated whether it should be a part of the EU. Finally, the EU has all but regretted admitting member states like Hungary and Poland - there isn't much appetite for admitting yet another country that really isn't a fully functioning democracy.

Yup, I don't even understand how that makes the current situation less bad? EU isn't a defense alliance and already sending aid to Ukraine.

The EU isn’t explicitly a defence alliance, but it does have a defence treaty similar to Article 5 and French nuclear capabilities to trigger MAD.

Ukraine will fail to meet the criteria until it has all its territory, unless they are somehow (unrealistically) waived.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Let's remember that Cyprus was admitted to the EU even though it was and still is in the middle of a major territorial dispute.

An important exception to the rule, but Cyprus’ dispute was a frozen conflict.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Biggest update on the jets yet (thread): https://mobile.twitter.com/vonderburchard/status/1498336344673853447
Bulgaria and Poland are the only countries Ukraine has asked so far, and both have said no - Bulgaria’s justification is that they have too few and too few spare parts to service their own fleet.

Ukraine could ask Slovakia for MiG-29s or request different kinds of jet - around Europe, there are still Su-25s (Bulgaria) in service, as well as really old Su-22s (Poland) and MiG-21s (Croatia, Romania) in service.

If desperate, they could ask for L-39 and Yak-52 trainers which have limited offensive capabilities, or they could ask for the various MiG- and Su- planes in other European countries that are currently out-of-service (although I don’t expect many, if any, of these will be airworthy).

IMO this is where EU coordination and US support is/was needed. Countries that no longer use their Soviet planes could offer them as spare parts for the likes of Bulgaria and countries with Western jets could backfill the Bulgarian, Polish and Slovakian airforces in exchange for them giving their active jets to Ukraine. Similar logic applies to countries parting with their Soviet SAMs, which otherwise seems unlikely right now.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

I don't blame Bulgaria for not sending their MiG-29s. It is several years off from receiving its replacement F-16s. I believe their claim if they gave their planes to Ukraine, there wouldn't be enough aircraft and parts left to defend Bulgaria. https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1498440837830782978?s=20&t=XhOHu322KlD...

I apologise for writing my analysis in a definitive tone earlier - the source I was relying upon has walked back a bit from his claims about Poland and they're not in the Politico piece regarding the Bulgarian refusal.

https://twitter.com/vonderburchard/status/1498452624059871236

I did find earlier pieces in which Slovak officials denied they would send planes, but this latest Politico piece says they (like Poland) refused to comment when asked.

The situation is fluid and lots of Ukranian sources are lying (because they are claiming they will get the full complement they asked for, including the Bulgarian planes that are - as of now - not coming). Still, I wouldn't be surprised if Ukranian pilots had been allowed to go to Poland while negotiations over the planes were still going on, and I will provide updates on this whenever I find them. It seems like the quickest win for Ukraine relative to SAM/Bayraktar procurement.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1498419741106397185?s=20&t=uvCMy75UXrWzl3E7zA...

The timeline of this seems optimistic, at best. The likely outcome - likely enough to fuel the Russian leadership's paranoia, anyway - is that Finland joins NATO if the process is left uninterrupted. Unfortunately for Finland, that process involves a debate on having a vote in Parliament, the actual vote in Parliament, a referendum and then an application to NATO, something that tends to take months or years to process (although it could plausibly be fast-tracked). They will have a target on their back throughout this process.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Romania returned the Ukranian Su-27 that made an emergency landing there at the start of the conflict, but unloaded all of its ammo first (as they brought it in flying).

https://www.twitter.com/MApNRomania/status/1498659636693680139
My guess is the ammo was or will be returned separately, but the recent shipments of missiles to Ukraine mean they probably have enough sore weaponry if not. This highlights Europe’s concerns about sending in armed and airborne Ukranian jets.

The source is the Romanian government, and pretty trustworthy - photos of the plane being escorted to the Ukranian border have also emerged today.

The Su-27 is not used by any other EU or NATO militaries, barring 2 used by the US for training (alongside a number of MiG-29s they bought from Moldova to prevent Iran purchasing them).

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Romania returned the Ukranian Su-27 that made an emergency landing there at the start of the conflict, but unloaded all of its ammo first (as they brought it in flying).

https://www.twitter.com/MApNRomania/status/1498659636693680139
My guess is the ammo was or will be returned separately, but the recent shipments of missiles to Ukraine mean they probably have enough sore weaponry if not. This highlights Europe’s concerns about sending in armed and airborne Ukranian jets.

The source is the Romanian government, and pretty trustworthy - photos of the plane being escorted to the Ukranian border have also emerged today.

The Su-27 is not used by any other EU or NATO militaries, barring 2 used by the US for training (alongside a number of MiG-29s they bought from Moldova to prevent Iran purchasing them).

Btw, that this was not quickly shot down is proof that the Russian airforce is doing a bad job. Though it does not have air supremacy, it does have overwhelming superiority - hence the convoy being left mostly unchallenged - and it should have been able to take advantage of this to knock the Su-27 out of the sky or at least bomb it as soon as it had landed for rearmament.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

What is likely to be the last update on the EU jets story: https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-promise-to-supply-fighter-jets-to-ukraine-gets-grounded/

The Ukranian army post claiming jets would arrive has been deleted, and Poland has finally confirmed (after some ambiguity from their President) that it’s not happening.

Presumably, the Ukranian transports parked on a Polish airfield are for carrying other supplies or for safekeeping during a conflict they’re not fit for. Perhaps they came anticipating jets that were never guaranteed.

Romania was requested to give jets and refused to comment; the others refused. However, Romania did return the errant Ukranian Su-27 today, and the only other craft they have that Ukrainians could fly is the Yak-52 trainer (which is likely to be less impactful than a purpose-built fighter/bomber) and the MiG-21 (which is increasingly obsolete - outside of testing during refurbishment for other countries’ fleets, Ukraine hasn’t flown many of these for a long time).

Turkey has not responded to Ukraine’s request for more Bayraktars. They had ordered lots more at the start of the invasion proper, but new ones had to be manufactured and faster delivery would require some depletion of Turkish army or training stocks.

No mention of SAMs, but I would expect they’re not getting any of those, either. Expect RuAF supremacy soon, and more unchallenged convoys.