Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Hollywood]

Meanhile: "Live From Bakhmut" courtesy of WaPo

The crash and roar of artillery rarely stops in this east Ukrainian city. In the cold and broken houses, residents huddle by candlelight and pray that they have safety in numbers. On the battlefield, soldiers on both sides are dying in droves.

After a disorderly Russian retreat from nearby Izyum, the battle for Bakhmut is no longer part of any coordinated military operation. Instead, Prigozhin is pouring waves of mercenaries from Wagner into battle, appearing to see political advantage in capturing Bakhmut as a military trophy while President Vladimir Putin’s regular forces are on the back foot elsewhere.

Outgunned and outnumbered, exhausted Ukrainian troops are relying on nimbler tactics to withstand the brutal battle, monitoring enemy lines with civilian drones as newly recruited engineers experiment with customized weapons from pop-up laboratories in abandoned buildings nearby.

Across four locations in the Bakhmut area, Ukrainian soldiers described how Wagner troops at times appear to have been used almost as cannon fodder. “They’re treating them like single-use soldiers,” said Volodymyr, 24, the commander of a self-propelled artillery unit, as he waited on spotters to call in a new target. Usually it was infantry, he said.

From the 93rd Brigade’s position, drone operators have seen the mercenaries stumble over the bodies of fallen comrades as they advance.

A Russian reporter who filmed Wagner’s front-line positions near Bakhmut late last month reported that Prigozhin’s son was fighting there, and interviewed him, without identifying him by name.

Ukraine’s casualties are also heavy. Ambulances shuttled back and forth between the Ukrainian firing positions last week, apparently carrying wounded men from the front line.

The day before, they said, another company had been surrounded by Russian forces, and fired upon. “There weren’t even pieces of them left,” said one of the soldiers, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of describing Ukrainian casualties.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/10/22/bakhmut-russia-ukraine-wagner-war/

I'm amused by the allegations that the Wagner Group is being used as "Canon Fodder" juxtaposed with with the last two quotes about how 1) Ukraine Suffered Heavy Losses throughout the week; and 2) a Company was completely annihilated after Russians surrounded them.  It's no secret that the Russians are obliterating companies, platoons, and Battalions of Ukrainian Troops from the Kherson, Kharkiv, and Bakhmut direction, because Russian Reporters and Military Personnel have released the footage.  I've seen hundreds of videos with Ukrainian armored vehicles and dead bodies littered along an offensive line.  The most important takeaway from the WAPO's 'anonymous source' is that Ukraine is lying about its casualties, and Soldiers will be punished if they share accurate information or depictions about the grim situation on the ground.  The same fate has already befallen the brigades attacking from the Kharkiv Direction, as reports already indicate that they're line rolled over the last several days of fighting. UAF retreated to positions on the Western Bank of the Zherebets River, while defeated/destroyed groups are preparing for an assault on Lyman.

The Ukrainians have good reason to be worried about an assault from the Belgorod Direction, because their Troops would be trapped between the Zherebets, Oskill, and Siversky-Donetsk Rivers.   I can see from the Ukrainian Map that the Russians are trying to roll up their forces near Kup'yansk. Meanwhile, the Russian drone and missile assault on Ukrainian Energy Infrastructure will create disarray for the coordination of troops and supplies.  I think 60% of the Ukraine is currently in the dark, so I have to imagine the Russians are going to make a big move soon.
https://liveuamap.com/

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ffpa6UnXgAEd7QE?format=jpg&name=medium
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ffpa5OWXoAAuZbW?format=jpg&name=medium

What exactly are you attempting to express with that picture?  That guy is irrelevant and boring.  The evidence of casualties suffered on the Ukrainian side is posted on the MilitaryZ Channel located on Rumble, and reports from the Russian front can be found on the Rybar Telegram Channel.  I've been able to confirm Russian Journalist and Military Reports via video.   
https://rumble.com/v1p38zx-10.22.2022-chronicle-of-military-operations-russia-ukraine.html
https://rumble.com/v1p38z3-10.22.2022-chronicle-of-military-operations-russia-ukraine.html

Russian parrots repeat the same lines over and over again but the front lines does not lie. Russians have made almost no progress in the last 3 months. They've been screaming endlessly about Bakhmut and yet all they have managed to accomplish is capture a few hundred meters of no man's land. And don't come at me with ZOMG CASUALTIES stuff. For every Ukrainian dead I can easily find 10 gore videos of Russian dead being eaten pigs and stray dogs. This is war and people die.

Then post the videos of the Ukrainians taking out an entire armored division in a single battle, because I haven't seen any detailed footage.  This is a video from October 21st that confirms the Russian claims of 200 Dead, 14 Tanks destroyed, and 16 Armored Vehicles that occurred on the 19th or 20th.  There have been over 30 battles where the Ukrainians have lost 100-500 Troops in a single day.  
https://rumble.com/v1p4iql-russia-defeated-ukraines-kherson-offensive-destroyed-200-troops-14-tanks-16.html

This is the Russian Airborne Division investigating the destroyed UAF Equipment.
https://rumble.com/v1p48tn-airborne-soldiers-completely-demilitarised-the-1st-mechanized-battalion.html

This is a close-up of two APC destroyed with a close-up of UAF men getting picked off as they attempt to escape from the vehicle.  https://rumble.com/v1ow139-denazification-atgm-of-the-armed-forces-of-the-russian-federation-destroys-.html

This is one battle on the Kherson Front.  I can't find anything videos from the Ukrainian side that confirms their claims about Russian casualties.  If the Ukrainians were even getting 1:1 kill-death ratios, they'd be celebrating in Kherson today.   Instead, the Ukrainians have taken far more severe losses than the Russians.  Sometimes the UAF suffer the loss of 50+ Armored Vehicles in a single battle.  I remember when the Russians took out their pontoons the Ukrainians were using to retake Davidy Brid, and the Russians systematically destroyed a hundred vehicles, and killed over 700 Men at this one point of contact. It happened in the first week of September.      

[Logical]

https://rumble.com/v1p38zx-10.22.2022-chronicle-of-military-operations-russia-ukraine.html
https://rumble.com/v1p38z3-10.22.2022-chronicle-of-military-operations-russia-ukraine.html

These two videos show Ukrainians destroying Russian equipment you moron but what do you expect from someone who follows the war from thrice regurgitated rumble videos.

[Woody]

Ngl I would never in a million years have predicted something like this.. in the end his son says "This is a gift"

The extended video shows the POWs faces confirming that they are real servicemen.. by various UA telegrams/twitter

https://twitter.com/AlexKokcharov/status/1583482383826702338

[Torie]

What was this call about?

"Also on Friday, the U.S. defense secretary, Lloyd J. Austin III, and his Russian counterpart, Sergei K. Shoigu, spoke with each other by phone for the first time since May and only the second time since the war began. Their respective offices confirmed in statements that the call took place and dealt with Ukraine, but did not offer any specifics or say whether Belarus was discussed."

When I read the article below, what first crossed my mind was wondering how many children were being kidnapped. It has come to that. Very sad.

https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-war-russian-installed-authorities-in-kherson-order-immediate-evacuation-amid-warnings-of-counteroffensive-12727146

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/22/world/europe/ukraine-children-russia-adoptions.html

[Person Man]

Meanhile: "Live From Bakhmut" courtesy of WaPo

The crash and roar of artillery rarely stops in this east Ukrainian city. In the cold and broken houses, residents huddle by candlelight and pray that they have safety in numbers. On the battlefield, soldiers on both sides are dying in droves.

After a disorderly Russian retreat from nearby Izyum, the battle for Bakhmut is no longer part of any coordinated military operation. Instead, Prigozhin is pouring waves of mercenaries from Wagner into battle, appearing to see political advantage in capturing Bakhmut as a military trophy while President Vladimir Putin’s regular forces are on the back foot elsewhere.

Outgunned and outnumbered, exhausted Ukrainian troops are relying on nimbler tactics to withstand the brutal battle, monitoring enemy lines with civilian drones as newly recruited engineers experiment with customized weapons from pop-up laboratories in abandoned buildings nearby.

Across four locations in the Bakhmut area, Ukrainian soldiers described how Wagner troops at times appear to have been used almost as cannon fodder. “They’re treating them like single-use soldiers,” said Volodymyr, 24, the commander of a self-propelled artillery unit, as he waited on spotters to call in a new target. Usually it was infantry, he said.

From the 93rd Brigade’s position, drone operators have seen the mercenaries stumble over the bodies of fallen comrades as they advance.

A Russian reporter who filmed Wagner’s front-line positions near Bakhmut late last month reported that Prigozhin’s son was fighting there, and interviewed him, without identifying him by name.

Ukraine’s casualties are also heavy. Ambulances shuttled back and forth between the Ukrainian firing positions last week, apparently carrying wounded men from the front line.

The day before, they said, another company had been surrounded by Russian forces, and fired upon. “There weren’t even pieces of them left,” said one of the soldiers, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of describing Ukrainian casualties.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/10/22/bakhmut-russia-ukraine-wagner-war/

I'm amused by the allegations that the Wagner Group is being used as "Canon Fodder" juxtaposed with with the last two quotes about how 1) Ukraine Suffered Heavy Losses throughout the week; and 2) a Company was completely annihilated after Russians surrounded them.  It's no secret that the Russians are obliterating companies, platoons, and Battalions of Ukrainian Troops from the Kherson, Kharkiv, and Bakhmut direction, because Russian Reporters and Military Personnel have released the footage.  I've seen hundreds of videos with Ukrainian armored vehicles and dead bodies littered along an offensive line.  The most important takeaway from the WAPO's 'anonymous source' is that Ukraine is lying about its casualties, and Soldiers will be punished if they share accurate information or depictions about the grim situation on the ground.  The same fate has already befallen the brigades attacking from the Kharkiv Direction, as reports already indicate that they're line rolled over the last several days of fighting. UAF retreated to positions on the Western Bank of the Zherebets River, while defeated/destroyed groups are preparing for an assault on Lyman.

The Ukrainians have good reason to be worried about an assault from the Belgorod Direction, because their Troops would be trapped between the Zherebets, Oskill, and Siversky-Donetsk Rivers.   I can see from the Ukrainian Map that the Russians are trying to roll up their forces near Kup'yansk. Meanwhile, the Russian drone and missile assault on Ukrainian Energy Infrastructure will create disarray for the coordination of troops and supplies.  I think 60% of the Ukraine is currently in the dark, so I have to imagine the Russians are going to make a big move soon.
https://liveuamap.com/

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ffpa6UnXgAEd7QE?format=jpg&name=medium
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ffpa5OWXoAAuZbW?format=jpg&name=medium

What exactly are you attempting to express with that picture?  That guy is irrelevant and boring.  The evidence of casualties suffered on the Ukrainian side is posted on the MilitaryZ Channel located on Rumble, and reports from the Russian front can be found on the Rybar Telegram Channel.  I've been able to confirm Russian Journalist and Military Reports via video.   
https://rumble.com/v1p38zx-10.22.2022-chronicle-of-military-operations-russia-ukraine.html
https://rumble.com/v1p38z3-10.22.2022-chronicle-of-military-operations-russia-ukraine.html

Russian parrots repeat the same lines over and over again but the front lines does not lie. Russians have made almost no progress in the last 3 months. They've been screaming endlessly about Bakhmut and yet all they have managed to accomplish is capture a few hundred meters of no man's land. And don't come at me with ZOMG CASUALTIES stuff. For every Ukrainian dead I can easily find 10 gore videos of Russian dead being eaten pigs and stray dogs. This is war and people die.

Anyone who has videos of a knifing, gibbing, headshot, multikill (I think BRTD shared a good multi kill),  or of someone “camping” or pwning a camper, let me know.

[Frodo]

It is more important for Ukraine to prevent Russia from withdrawing the nearly 30,000 troops it has in and around Kherson through cutting off Russian access to the Dnieper than it is to recapture the city itself.  The loss of such a large contingent of (relatively) better trained and equipped troops through encirclement (and eventual mass surrender) would be a bigger blow to Russia than the loss of Kherson:

Ukraine poised for crucial blow to Putin in battle for Kherson

It is not clear all of those troops are on the left bank of the Dnieper. More importantly, Ukraine faces a real dilemma here as it is trying to save its land and people, not simply own the Russians. If it continues to besiege, or outright assault, a city full of trapped Russians, it will gain the following:

- Better chance of neutralising the troops you mentioned
- Probably more opportunities to capture equipment
- Better chance of preventing kidnappings of civilians in Kherson

It will lose:

- Opportunities to take advantage of fleeing Russians with easier escape routes (the Kharkiv morale breakdown)
- The avoidance of urban warfare as an attacker

This latter disadvantage is huge. Urban warfare is a bloody slog which may not work, will kill more civilians, exacerbate rebuilding costs in the aftermath of a successful campaign, and potentially provide Russia with good PR (because the attacker in urban warfare is rarely able to cover themselves in glory).

As I said before - there are no easy answers for Ukraine here. If Russia tries to evacuate men, materiel, collaborators and kidnapped civilians, they’ll have to choose between hurting all of those groups and the city itself or securing the land in a less defiled state but with fewer people saved/stopped.

Who says Ukrainian soldiers will have to engage in Stalingrad-like urban warfare when they could just sit outside and besiege the city, ringing it with anti-aircraft batteries to prevent resupply until the Russian surrender? In the meantime, by taking the western bank of the Dnieper, they would be cutting off any and all attempts by Russian forces on the opposite side of the river from rescuing their comrades.  And I very much doubt the Russians in Kherson will last as long as their German and Romanian counterparts did under General von Paulus when they got surrounded as a result of Operation Uranus.  It will be weeks, not months, before they would be forced to surrender.  

[Logical]

Meanhile: "Live From Bakhmut" courtesy of WaPo

The crash and roar of artillery rarely stops in this east Ukrainian city. In the cold and broken houses, residents huddle by candlelight and pray that they have safety in numbers. On the battlefield, soldiers on both sides are dying in droves.

After a disorderly Russian retreat from nearby Izyum, the battle for Bakhmut is no longer part of any coordinated military operation. Instead, Prigozhin is pouring waves of mercenaries from Wagner into battle, appearing to see political advantage in capturing Bakhmut as a military trophy while President Vladimir Putin’s regular forces are on the back foot elsewhere.

Outgunned and outnumbered, exhausted Ukrainian troops are relying on nimbler tactics to withstand the brutal battle, monitoring enemy lines with civilian drones as newly recruited engineers experiment with customized weapons from pop-up laboratories in abandoned buildings nearby.

Across four locations in the Bakhmut area, Ukrainian soldiers described how Wagner troops at times appear to have been used almost as cannon fodder. “They’re treating them like single-use soldiers,” said Volodymyr, 24, the commander of a self-propelled artillery unit, as he waited on spotters to call in a new target. Usually it was infantry, he said.

From the 93rd Brigade’s position, drone operators have seen the mercenaries stumble over the bodies of fallen comrades as they advance.

A Russian reporter who filmed Wagner’s front-line positions near Bakhmut late last month reported that Prigozhin’s son was fighting there, and interviewed him, without identifying him by name.

Ukraine’s casualties are also heavy. Ambulances shuttled back and forth between the Ukrainian firing positions last week, apparently carrying wounded men from the front line.

The day before, they said, another company had been surrounded by Russian forces, and fired upon. “There weren’t even pieces of them left,” said one of the soldiers, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of describing Ukrainian casualties.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/10/22/bakhmut-russia-ukraine-wagner-war/

I'm amused by the allegations that the Wagner Group is being used as "Canon Fodder" juxtaposed with with the last two quotes about how 1) Ukraine Suffered Heavy Losses throughout the week; and 2) a Company was completely annihilated after Russians surrounded them.  It's no secret that the Russians are obliterating companies, platoons, and Battalions of Ukrainian Troops from the Kherson, Kharkiv, and Bakhmut direction, because Russian Reporters and Military Personnel have released the footage.  I've seen hundreds of videos with Ukrainian armored vehicles and dead bodies littered along an offensive line.  The most important takeaway from the WAPO's 'anonymous source' is that Ukraine is lying about its casualties, and Soldiers will be punished if they share accurate information or depictions about the grim situation on the ground.  The same fate has already befallen the brigades attacking from the Kharkiv Direction, as reports already indicate that they're line rolled over the last several days of fighting. UAF retreated to positions on the Western Bank of the Zherebets River, while defeated/destroyed groups are preparing for an assault on Lyman.

The Ukrainians have good reason to be worried about an assault from the Belgorod Direction, because their Troops would be trapped between the Zherebets, Oskill, and Siversky-Donetsk Rivers.   I can see from the Ukrainian Map that the Russians are trying to roll up their forces near Kup'yansk. Meanwhile, the Russian drone and missile assault on Ukrainian Energy Infrastructure will create disarray for the coordination of troops and supplies.  I think 60% of the Ukraine is currently in the dark, so I have to imagine the Russians are going to make a big move soon.
https://liveuamap.com/

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ffpa6UnXgAEd7QE?format=jpg&name=medium
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ffpa5OWXoAAuZbW?format=jpg&name=medium

What exactly are you attempting to express with that picture?  That guy is irrelevant and boring.  The evidence of casualties suffered on the Ukrainian side is posted on the MilitaryZ Channel located on Rumble, and reports from the Russian front can be found on the Rybar Telegram Channel.  I've been able to confirm Russian Journalist and Military Reports via video.   
https://rumble.com/v1p38zx-10.22.2022-chronicle-of-military-operations-russia-ukraine.html
https://rumble.com/v1p38z3-10.22.2022-chronicle-of-military-operations-russia-ukraine.html

Russian parrots repeat the same lines over and over again but the front lines does not lie. Russians have made almost no progress in the last 3 months. They've been screaming endlessly about Bakhmut and yet all they have managed to accomplish is capture a few hundred meters of no man's land. And don't come at me with ZOMG CASUALTIES stuff. For every Ukrainian dead I can easily find 10 gore videos of Russian dead being eaten pigs and stray dogs. This is war and people die.

Anyone who has videos of a knifing, gibbing, headshot, multikill (I think BRTD shared a good multi kill),  or of someone “camping” or pwning a camper, let me know.

Multi kill
https://twitter.com/Blue_Sauron/status/1579405743434129408
Camper kill
https://twitter.com/Blue_Sauron/status/1578093806833975296

[Omega21]

Anyone have the original statement?

This is a pro RU account

Anyway, fairly weird if true. Maybe UA is mindful of increased all-out RU artillery attacks.

https://twitter.com/baronitaigas/status/1583881165618176000

[Hollywood]

https://rumble.com/v1p38zx-10.22.2022-chronicle-of-military-operations-russia-ukraine.html
https://rumble.com/v1p38z3-10.22.2022-chronicle-of-military-operations-russia-ukraine.html

These two videos show Ukrainians destroying Russian equipment you moron but what do you expect from someone who follows the war from thrice regurgitated rumble videos.

Oh STFU!  I made a mistake repasting two videos of Ukrainian attacks on RAF equipment that the Russian Journalists included in their report today.  Big Whoop.  You guys get all butt hurt whenever presented with actual evidence that dispels any, even the most baseless, claims made by Ukraine.  Just don't F-ing respond if you can't handle push-back, or put me on ignore so your feelies don't get hurt.

I will reiterate my main point.  I don't believe this BS Ukrainian claim that they are killing 5-6 Russians for every 1 Ukrainian Soldier during these counter-offensives where they are sending massive numbers to overwhelm the Russian Defenses.  I've seen so many armored divisions bombed to s##t by air and artillery strikes since the first week of September.  If Ukraine was that successful, Russian would have been thrown out of Kherson if they lost that many trained troops.  It makes no sense.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1583731413601308673?s=20&t=hY5N1AEh...

[Woody]

Russian authorities have shut down the internet in Kherson City.

Speculation is that with the remaining people there it will be easier to control and cleanse the city of SBU agents/helpers.. while the Russians are trying to make a "fortress" out of the city.

[Logical]

Anyone have the original statement?

This is a pro RU account

Anyway, fairly weird if true. Maybe UA is mindful of increased all-out RU artillery attacks.

https://twitter.com/baronitaigas/status/1583881165618176000

Not true. The city experienced total electrical failure earlier in the morning after a drone attack on a power substation but there was no evacuation order.

[Storr]

There have been a lot of twitter rumors about a Russian retreat in Kherson Oblast. There hasn't been much proof, but some interesting (claimed) evidence floating around:

https://twitter.com/IntelCrab/status/1583886901357838340?s=20&t=hY5N1AEhLYvP...

https://twitter.com/netblocks/status/1583869885171761153?s=20&t=hY5N1AEhLYvP...

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1583757967677353986?s=20&t=hY5N1A...

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1583880384009236481?s=20&t=hY5N1AEhLYvPax...

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1583884607229165569?s=20&t=hY5N1AEhLYvPax...

[NOVA Green]

This made me laugh...

https://twitter.com/CovertShores/status/1583801046039613440?s=20&t=fgFTrg4ss...

[NOVA Green]

A few more updates from Kherson City, in addition to some of the reports from other posters upthread...

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1583946355868696576?s=20&t=5RxPajRA6xEmrZ...

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1583861408705675264?s=20&t=5RxPajRA6x...

https://twitter.com/JayinKyiv/status/1583915862624735232?s=20&t=5RxPajRA6xEm...

https://twitter.com/TallbarFIN/status/1583853020126683137?s=20&t=5RxPajRA6xE...

Here I might be slightly skeptical, but still...

https://twitter.com/ItsArtoir/status/1583828101993140224?s=20&t=5RxPajRA6xEm...

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Could it be better for the Russians if Kherson falls earlier, if it means they can salvage more things in retreat?

[Oryxslayer]

Could it be better for the Russians if Kherson falls earlier, if it means they can salvage more things in retreat?

IDK what would be better for them. River crossings are scare and right now the military equipment (rightly) and loot (wrongly) seem to be priorities there. A longer defense could mean soldiers get added to that list, or it could just mean more looting.

[CanadianDemocrat]

For the love of God people stop engaging posters who are engaging in bad faith and do nothing but drag the conversation down. Stop. Just stop. There's an ignore button. Use it.

I have all the tankies and Putin bots on ignore, please stop quoting them.

[Storr]

Could it be better for the Russians if Kherson falls earlier, if it means they can salvage more things in retreat?

The longer the Russians put off withdrawing, the less material they will be able to take with them. The main complication, compared with previous Russian withdrawals in this war (around Kyiv, Kupyansk/Izyum), is having to cross the Dnipro river.
.
https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1583922704578539521?s=20&t=GcoD_dTh7FO...

https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1583743643055435778?s=20&t=GcoD_dTh7...

[Gass3268]

Some fears that Russia is withdrawing in order to blow up the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant.

https://twitter.com/heel_be_ok/status/1583640391638609920?s=20&t=En11Wrqifyz...

[Virginiá]

Unless Ukraine has a way to diffuse the explosives on the dam before detonation, they would probably benefit from at least trying to negotiate with Russia that they won't attempt to pursue them across or seize the dam for now. Russia keeps Crimea's water, Ukraine preserves the dam and the settlements downstream, and can shift their focus to Zaporizhzhia. Fording the Dnieper in Kherson isn't like the Oskil in Kharkiv. It's bigger, better defended, and more resource intensive. The AFU is better off pushing south from the east where they already control both sides of the river.

Of course this would be a problem later if Ukraine continues to make progress in the south, but it makes sense for now. Both sides have reasons to keep the dam intact.

In any case, it's not clear whether Russia intends to blow the dam no matter what after they retreat across or whether they only intend to if Ukraine attempts to seize it, so it might not matter either way.

[Storr]

It's easy to imagine with GPS, satellites, mobile computers, fancy modern radios, radar, and all the other technology used on the battlefield today convoys wouldn't get lost. But no:

https://twitter.com/DemeryUK/status/1584011464167202816?s=20&t=ZkhhGr9DHC0Yv...

[Hollywood]

I never even considered that Russia could just blow-up all those damns along the Dnieper River until Zelensky mentioned it today.  In one swift act, Putin could deny Zelensky his Kherson victory.  The Zap Power Plant would be completely safe cause it was disconnected and safely put off-line.  They literally had to do it, because Zelensky was F-ing shelling it.  Why not just deny the UAFs all the FOB cities on the Dnieper by blowing the damns upstream to downstream?  And there's literally more damns in the Western Oblasts.  

Hopefully Ukraine is able to retake Kherson without incident.  I wouldn't have gambled so many Ukrainian Lives and armored vehicles, because it turned out that the Russians were essentially incapable of holding those low fields and swamps.  

[Hollywood]

Unless Ukraine has a way to diffuse the explosives on the dam before detonation, they would probably benefit from at least trying to negotiate with Russia that they won't attempt to pursue them across or seize the dam for now. Russia keeps Crimea's water, Ukraine preserves the dam and the settlements downstream, and can shift their focus to Zaporizhzhia. Fording the Dnieper in Kherson isn't like the Oskil in Kharkiv. It's bigger, better defended, and more resource intensive. The AFU is better off pushing south from the east where they already control both sides of the river.

Of course this would be a problem later if Ukraine continues to make progress in the south, but it makes sense for now. Both sides have reasons to keep the dam intact.

In any case, it's not clear whether Russia intends to blow the dam no matter what after they retreat across or whether they only intend to if Ukraine attempts to seize it, so it might not matter either way.

If Russia were the ones advancing, would you blow the damn?  I'd definitely blow the damn.  On the 2nd day of the war, Zelensky blew up a damn to stop the Russian advance on Kyiv, and a few villages were flooded as a result.  https://www.npr.org/2022/09/06/1121201310/ukraine-flooded-village-dam-blown-up