Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[Matty]

https://mobile.twitter.com/DavidMDrucker/status/1447677488159731720

[Devils30]

https://mobile.twitter.com/DavidMDrucker/status/1447677488159731720

The GOP is setting itself for major disappointment. I'm curious....what poll has shown a substantial change in this race the past few months?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Running retread candidates in a Biden Midterm isn't good they should of ran someone else

Kaine is up in 2024/ so Rs winning VA GOV RACE WONT MATTER THAT MUCH FOR 2024

[Duke of York]

https://mobile.twitter.com/DavidMDrucker/status/1447677488159731720

Polling and early numbers aren't showing that at all.

[BoiseBoy]

https://mobile.twitter.com/DavidMDrucker/status/1447677488159731720

GOP internals, as reported in a fairly GOP-leaning publication, says GOP is favored to do well in the election, where most actual metrics suggest otherwise.

[Non Swing Voter]

https://mobile.twitter.com/DavidMDrucker/status/1447677488159731720

Polling and early numbers aren't showing that at all.

Check out my signature line for past predictions...

[Matty]

This is absolutely gross. I want loudon county school officials to be jailed if true

https://mobile.twitter.com/lukerosiak/status/1447695763476209664


I hope loudon school district officials are so f’in scared right now.

[wbrocks67]

Obama to VA on 10/23. So I assume Kamala and Joe likely weekend of halloween, a la CA.

https://twitter.com/ccadelago/status/1447907801196605455

[GALeftist]

This is absolutely gross. I want loudon county school officials to be jailed if true

https://mobile.twitter.com/lukerosiak/status/1447695763476209664


I hope loudon school district officials are so f’in scared right now.

To be real this story seems more than a little sketchy to me. The dude in the tweet, Luke Rosiak, is kind of known for stories which are bogus even by Daily Caller standards (e.g. the theories that Imran Awan was a Pakistani spy whose espionage was sanctioned by House Democrats). The article also paints the high school's administration as almost cartoonishly evil, which seems somewhat suspicious. The tweet also alleges that the alleged perpetrator was gender fluid, but I found this somewhat strange because the only information I could find about that was that the perpetrator was allegedly wearing a skirt. Further, the lawyer in the article claims that the May assault had the same perpetrator as an assault this month which was reported in the mainstream media, but those reports don't mention the perpetrator being gender neutral at all. IDK, maybe the article has more conclusive information after the paywall, and I'm not ruling out its being true necessarily, but I'll wait until it's corroborated.

[hyouzel the predictor]

This is absolutely gross. I want loudon county school officials to be jailed if true

https://mobile.twitter.com/lukerosiak/status/1447695763476209664

I hope loudon school district officials are so f’in scared right now.

As someone from Loudoun it's common information that this guy is a BS artist and is lying. There were no genderfluid kids at Stone Bridge at the time when she claimed this and she has been propped up by her very political parents as "evidence that transgenderism is bad" when in reality she is a complete liar.

[Canis]

https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1448000768045289473

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1448000768045289473

Terry needs to run with this message. Run with the Trumpkin message. Abortion rights, voting rights, 1/6, audits, etc. Despite Trumpkin trying to 'moderate' himself, he has a lot of baggage that Terry can objectively go after.

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1448000768045289473

Terry needs to run with this message. Run with the Trumpkin message. Abortion rights, voting rights, 1/6, audits, etc. Despite Trumpkin trying to 'moderate' himself, he has a lot of baggage that Terry can objectively go after.

I don't know if he has already, but if he hasn't, he also should be campaigning on what made him a relatively popular Governor in his previous term and how, with a Democratic House of Delegates and Senate this time, he can deliver on as much as Northam has, perhaps even more. It would be a good way to kill two birds with one stone in both the Governor's race and the down-ballot races.

[LimoLiberal]

Some random thoughts:

• Terry McAuliffe has not run a "bad" campaign thus far and the pieces lambasting his campaign and its tactics are really quite divorced from reality. The political environment is what's making Youngkin competitive here, not TMac's "gaffes" - if Biden's numbers are below water in Virginia, the race is going to be close.
• In 2017 the AG and LG Democratic candidates did 4-5 points worse than Northam. Justin Fairfax was a little left for the state but Herring, an incumbent, probably should have done better. If that sort of underperformance is repeated this year, Herring and Ayala could have trouble even if TMac is winning by a good margin.
• The HoD is unpredictable, and looking at presidential margins won't tell you the whole story, especially in NoVA. One example is HD-34, which runs along the Potomac from McLean to Trump's golf course (this is probably in the top ten wealthiest state legislative districts in the country). Biden won this district by 25+ points, but incumbent Kathleen Murphy won by just 16 in 2019. If there's going to be a rebound in the suburbs it will be here, and she's facing a well-funded opponent in Gary Pan. Although presidential margin wise this district is more Democratic than some of the other targets in NoVA, it might be likelier to flip. Just as you might see in Darien, CT; the massive swings to Clinton and then again to Biden may mask Republican strength down-ballot, and Youngkin is a pretty good candidate for that purpose.
• On the subject of the HoD, there are a number of seats that will make the difference. HD-12 in Blacksburg - Hurst (D) needs engagement from VTech voters to keep his seat. I'm not sure that this election has really galvanized young folks like the ones during the Trump era, but that's mostly anecdotal. HD-63 and HD-75 in Southside VA - these are majority Black seats where Clinton did better than Biden, similar to G.K. Butterfield's seat across the border in North Carolina. There are hints that Biden continues to slip with minority voters relative to his col-educated white base; if that's true, it might show up in losses here. Similarly, HD-31, HD-50 and HD-51 in Prince William County are districts that voted for Biden by double digtits but where Democrats rely partly on Hispanic turnout in suburban Manassas/Dale City/Woodbridge to outweight more Republican exurban areas in outer PWC and Fauquier. If there's Hispanic turnout or persuasion problems, it will show up here. HD-83, HD-85, HD-28 and HD-10 are obvious competitive races in VA Beach, Fredericksburg, and exurban Loudoun/Clarke. Some or even all of these can flip and Democrats can still retain control of the HoD, these are the closest districts by Biden/Clinton #s and thus top targets.

[Roll Roons]

One example is HD-34, which runs along the Potomac from McLean to Trump's golf course (this is probably in the top ten wealthiest state legislative districts in the country).

I'd be curious as to what the richest state legislative districts in the country are. That one's definitely up there. Probably, among others, the Beverly Hills/Brentwood/Bel Air district in CA, at least one in Silicon Valley, the Park Cities district in TX, Tom Kean's suburban district in NJ, the Greenwich seat in CT, the Medina/Clyde Hill district in WA, a UES district and the Winnetka/Kenilworth district in IL.

[Non Swing Voter]

Gary Pan has been running for years and hasn't made progress.  While I agree that that district will be very telling on margins, it's unlikely to flip and for Youngkin to win, he probably actually needs to flip or come close in a district like that.  I believe that district is basically McLean and Great Falls.  No way Youngkin wins McLean but perhaps he could win Great Falls as that area is probably a bit less diverse and a bit less connected to DC.

[Non Swing Voter]

Also, I'd assume both Youngkin and McCauliffe live in that NOVA district, or right around it as McCauliffe is from McLean and Youngkin is from Great Falls... 

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

For an outsider looking in, what are some other House of Delegate districts to follow besides the ones LimoLiberal mentioned?

[MT Treasurer]

McAuliffe has been tying Youngkin to Trump/abortion restrictions/insurrectionists for months now and that didn’t stop the race from tightening or at least didn’t cause a shift in McAuliffe's favor, so I fail to see how this "message" will prove more successful if he goes full Mark Udall during the next weeks. I really don’t think this "Trumpkin" thing is the gotcha genius line of attack Democratic strategists think it is, but who knows. If McAuliffe's playbook is vindicated and Democrats win the race rather easily (at least 5 points), then I don’t see how any other Democrat would have lost with the exact same message/strategy — if tying Youngkin to Trump/national Republicans is really all that’s needed for a D win here, it really flies in the face of the "McAuliffe is a particularly/uniquely good candidate for this race" takes.

Obviously the state has changed dramatically over the last decades, but it’s still quite something to see a Democrat staking everything on cultural issues in Virginia, and it’s certainly not a strategy without its risks. The dominant message of Youngkin's campaign has been that VA Democrats just keep taking the state to new extremes on all of these social issues (abortion, COVID restrictions, parental rights and school choice, etc.), and if that message actually resonates with a non-negligible portion of swing and D-leaning voters while galvanizing the R base, McAuliffe sure is doing his best to reinforce it. If it doesn’t resonate with them (and barely galvanizes the Trump base), then this entire campaign is a moot point because the race is Safe D anyway. No ifs, ands, or buts about it.

I’m sticking with my McAuliffe +4 prediction, but my "gut" feeling (which has been wrong before, so...) tells me that this will either be a dramatic D underperformance/GOP upset (so razor-thin McAuliffe victory or a Youngkin win) or an easy high single-digit D sweep of all the statewide races/HoD with nothing in between.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

This is absolutely gross. I want loudon county school officials to be jailed if true

https://mobile.twitter.com/lukerosiak/status/1447695763476209664


I hope loudon school district officials are so f’in scared right now.

I have a few transphobic bridges to sell if you’d be interested

[Skill and Chance]

McAuliffe has been tying Youngkin to Trump/abortion restrictions/insurrectionists for months now and that didn’t stop the race from tightening or at least didn’t cause a shift in McAuliffe's favor, so I fail to see how this "message" will prove more successful if he goes full Mark Udall during the next weeks. I really don’t think this "Trumpkin" thing is the gotcha genius line of attack Democratic strategists think it is, but who knows. If McAuliffe's playbook is vindicated and Democrats win the race rather easily (at least 5 points), then I don’t see how any other Democrat would have lost with the exact same message/strategy — if tying Youngkin to Trump/national Republicans is really all that’s needed for a D win here, it really flies in the face of the "McAuliffe is a particularly/uniquely good candidate for this race" takes.

Obviously the state has changed dramatically over the last decades, but it’s still quite something to see a Democrat staking everything on cultural issues in Virginia, and it’s certainly not a strategy without its risks. The dominant message of Youngkin's campaign has been that VA Democrats just keep taking the state to new extremes on all of these social issues (abortion, COVID restrictions, parental rights and school choice, etc.), and if that message actually resonates with a non-negligible portion of swing and D-leaning voters while galvanizing the R base, McAuliffe sure is doing his best to reinforce it. If it doesn’t resonate with them (and barely galvanizes the Trump base), then this entire campaign is a moot point because the race is Safe D anyway. No ifs, ands, or buts about it.

I’m sticking with my McAuliffe +4 prediction, but my "gut" feeling (which has been wrong before, so...) tells me that this will either be a dramatic D underperformance/GOP upset (so razor-thin McAuliffe victory or a Youngkin win) or an easy high single-digit D sweep of all the statewide races/HoD with nothing in between.

I'm sticking with McAuliffe +2.5

Youngkin will improve dramatically everywhere else, but given what we have seen in all the elections so far this year, how is he supposed to be the one R candidate that swings the college+ inner suburbs vote?

I think the HoD is basically Lean R, though.  All those Trump->Biden outer suburbs districts are majorly at risk.

Also Sears and Miyares could get enough crossover votes to win.   

[Mr.Phips]

McAuliffe has been tying Youngkin to Trump/abortion restrictions/insurrectionists for months now and that didn’t stop the race from tightening or at least didn’t cause a shift in McAuliffe's favor, so I fail to see how this "message" will prove more successful if he goes full Mark Udall during the next weeks. I really don’t think this "Trumpkin" thing is the gotcha genius line of attack Democratic strategists think it is, but who knows. If McAuliffe's playbook is vindicated and Democrats win the race rather easily (at least 5 points), then I don’t see how any other Democrat would have lost with the exact same message/strategy — if tying Youngkin to Trump/national Republicans is really all that’s needed for a D win here, it really flies in the face of the "McAuliffe is a particularly/uniquely good candidate for this race" takes.

Obviously the state has changed dramatically over the last decades, but it’s still quite something to see a Democrat staking everything on cultural issues in Virginia, and it’s certainly not a strategy without its risks. The dominant message of Youngkin's campaign has been that VA Democrats just keep taking the state to new extremes on all of these social issues (abortion, COVID restrictions, parental rights and school choice, etc.), and if that message actually resonates with a non-negligible portion of swing and D-leaning voters while galvanizing the R base, McAuliffe sure is doing his best to reinforce it. If it doesn’t resonate with them (and barely galvanizes the Trump base), then this entire campaign is a moot point because the race is Safe D anyway. No ifs, ands, or buts about it.

I’m sticking with my McAuliffe +4 prediction, but my "gut" feeling (which has been wrong before, so...) tells me that this will either be a dramatic D underperformance/GOP upset (so razor-thin McAuliffe victory or a Youngkin win) or an easy high single-digit D sweep of all the statewide races/HoD with nothing in between.

I'm sticking with McAuliffe +2.5

Youngkin will improve dramatically everywhere else, but given what we have seen in all the elections so far this year, how is he supposed to be the one R candidate that swings the college+ inner suburbs vote?

I think the HoD is basically Lean R, though.  All those Trump->Biden outer suburbs districts are majorly at risk.

Also Sears and Miyares could get enough crossover votes to win.  

There is literally one Trump > Biden district that Dems hold in the HOD.  For Republicans to win the majority, they have to win districts Biden won by double digits.

[LtNOWIS]

Some random thoughts:

• The HoD is unpredictable, and looking at presidential margins won't tell you the whole story, especially in NoVA. One example is HD-34, which runs along the Potomac from McLean to Trump's golf course (this is probably in the top ten wealthiest state legislative districts in the country). Biden won this district by 25+ points, but incumbent Kathleen Murphy won by just 16 in 2019. If there's going to be a rebound in the suburbs it will be here, and she's facing a well-funded opponent in Gary Pan.
  

This was Barbara Comstock's old seat. She also represented it in the US Congress, making her the last congressional republican to have any territory inside the beltway.

I door-knocked here in the January 2015 special, after Comstock won her US House seat, when Murphy was first elected. Even back then the Dems knew it was vulnerable and managed to flip it. At the time we thought that was just poor campaign strategy. Not knocking on enough doors or whatever, hitting the same doors too many times and pissing people off. We didn't think it was because of shifting winds as such. But Murphy remains, almost 7 years later.

Lots of massive houses with long driveways. Also I saw former GOP cabinet member who was still a household name, who told me he "wasn't involved in politics anymore." [/list]

[Skill and Chance]

McAuliffe has been tying Youngkin to Trump/abortion restrictions/insurrectionists for months now and that didn’t stop the race from tightening or at least didn’t cause a shift in McAuliffe's favor, so I fail to see how this "message" will prove more successful if he goes full Mark Udall during the next weeks. I really don’t think this "Trumpkin" thing is the gotcha genius line of attack Democratic strategists think it is, but who knows. If McAuliffe's playbook is vindicated and Democrats win the race rather easily (at least 5 points), then I don’t see how any other Democrat would have lost with the exact same message/strategy — if tying Youngkin to Trump/national Republicans is really all that’s needed for a D win here, it really flies in the face of the "McAuliffe is a particularly/uniquely good candidate for this race" takes.

Obviously the state has changed dramatically over the last decades, but it’s still quite something to see a Democrat staking everything on cultural issues in Virginia, and it’s certainly not a strategy without its risks. The dominant message of Youngkin's campaign has been that VA Democrats just keep taking the state to new extremes on all of these social issues (abortion, COVID restrictions, parental rights and school choice, etc.), and if that message actually resonates with a non-negligible portion of swing and D-leaning voters while galvanizing the R base, McAuliffe sure is doing his best to reinforce it. If it doesn’t resonate with them (and barely galvanizes the Trump base), then this entire campaign is a moot point because the race is Safe D anyway. No ifs, ands, or buts about it.

I’m sticking with my McAuliffe +4 prediction, but my "gut" feeling (which has been wrong before, so...) tells me that this will either be a dramatic D underperformance/GOP upset (so razor-thin McAuliffe victory or a Youngkin win) or an easy high single-digit D sweep of all the statewide races/HoD with nothing in between.

I'm sticking with McAuliffe +2.5

Youngkin will improve dramatically everywhere else, but given what we have seen in all the elections so far this year, how is he supposed to be the one R candidate that swings the college+ inner suburbs vote?

I think the HoD is basically Lean R, though.  All those Trump->Biden outer suburbs districts are majorly at risk.

Also Sears and Miyares could get enough crossover votes to win.  

There is literally one Trump > Biden district that Dems hold in the HOD.  For Republicans to win the majority, they have to win districts Biden won by double digits.

OK, but I stand by this.  The decisive districts have been very close downballot in recent times and R's won several Clinton 2016 districts in 2017 and 2019 despite a Republican president.

[Person Man]

McAuliffe has been tying Youngkin to Trump/abortion restrictions/insurrectionists for months now and that didn’t stop the race from tightening or at least didn’t cause a shift in McAuliffe's favor, so I fail to see how this "message" will prove more successful if he goes full Mark Udall during the next weeks. I really don’t think this "Trumpkin" thing is the gotcha genius line of attack Democratic strategists think it is, but who knows. If McAuliffe's playbook is vindicated and Democrats win the race rather easily (at least 5 points), then I don’t see how any other Democrat would have lost with the exact same message/strategy — if tying Youngkin to Trump/national Republicans is really all that’s needed for a D win here, it really flies in the face of the "McAuliffe is a particularly/uniquely good candidate for this race" takes.

Obviously the state has changed dramatically over the last decades, but it’s still quite something to see a Democrat staking everything on cultural issues in Virginia, and it’s certainly not a strategy without its risks. The dominant message of Youngkin's campaign has been that VA Democrats just keep taking the state to new extremes on all of these social issues (abortion, COVID restrictions, parental rights and school choice, etc.), and if that message actually resonates with a non-negligible portion of swing and D-leaning voters while galvanizing the R base, McAuliffe sure is doing his best to reinforce it. If it doesn’t resonate with them (and barely galvanizes the Trump base), then this entire campaign is a moot point because the race is Safe D anyway. No ifs, ands, or buts about it.

I’m sticking with my McAuliffe +4 prediction, but my "gut" feeling (which has been wrong before, so...) tells me that this will either be a dramatic D underperformance/GOP upset (so razor-thin McAuliffe victory or a Youngkin win) or an easy high single-digit D sweep of all the statewide races/HoD with nothing in between.

That's basically how I was predicting 2020 going to go before the pandemic hit. All the data suggested more or less the outcome we eventually arrived at pretty well (that Trump was going to lose by 4-5%, the Senate would be a tossup, and the House would be closer than expected, except that it was Georgia that flipped and not NC or Florida). I was still thinking that the block of swing voters that Dems need to get over 48% and the GOP over 46% would swing uniformely and either give Dems a blowout victory or the Republicans a narrow sweep. This is what I think happened but I think the lurking variable was that no one was expecting a couple of million waiters, bellhops, dishwashers, and carnies, many of them PoCs, to sneakily spam the polls for Trump because of quarantine and public health measures.