Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[Skill and Chance]

He would be the 1st VA gov who served non-consecutive term ever? Their one term limit is kind of ridiculous anyway.

Anyway, endorsed.

Not quite.  Mills Godwin was elected in 1965 and again in 1973.  He was a Democrat for the first term and a Republican for the second term!

[Skill and Chance]

https://twitter.com/GlennYoungkin/status/1354402623030489088

Who's this guy? Also boo at bashing California.

Apparently he's a former CEO who is also in charge of a group that retrains workers who have lost their jobs during the pandemic

Interesting.  IMO this guy has serious Hogan potential if his campaign gets off the ground.  He'll either get <5% in the primary or win it.  Dems would much rather be facing one of the career legislators in the GE. 

[Skill and Chance]

Virginia is Safe D and I will say this until the end of time

Yes, but governor's elections are different, as KY, KS, LA, VT, MA, and neighboring MD can tell you. 

[Skill and Chance]

The GOP nomination will be decided nearly 6 weeks prior to the June 8th Democratic primary.

It is not necessarily advantageous to the GOP. High profile contested primaries are often good for general election prospects as it brings much attention to the candidates and the winner of the primary.

I also expect that if a stronger candidate emerges from the GOP convention that Democrats will likely choose Terry McAuliffe but if a weaker candidate such as Chase emerges it is possible that Jennifer Carol Foy may be a get a second look for her candidacy.

https://twitter.com/GlennYoungkin/status/1354402623030489088

Who's this guy? Also boo at bashing California.

Apparently he's a former CEO who is also in charge of a group that retrains workers who have lost their jobs during the pandemic

Interesting.  IMO this guy has serious Hogan potential if his campaign gets off the ground.  He'll either get <5% in the primary or win it.  Dems would much rather be facing one of the career legislators in the GE.  

An underrated possibility of the 2021 elections in VA is this: the lower ballot Lt. Gov and Attorney General races become generic R v D and Democrats win but the GOP narrowly winning the governorship.

But I would not bet money on the GOP winning VA-GOV though.

Their screaming about REOPENING SCHOOLS now is a good campaign for January 2021 but by this fall it is highly unlikely that schools will be remote still. And its highly unlikely there will be any substantial restrictions in Virginia at all for the economy expect perhaps a 250 person gathering limit. The GOP seems to be running a campaign right now that could work for now but not for November.

I forgot about the convention system.  That could hurt this guy's odds significantly vs. the party insider candidates.  

[Skill and Chance]

Youngkin is the one to watch.  He's going to have a heck of a time getting through the convention, but if he does, he's likely favored in the GE.

Nominating Chase would be throwing the GE away, and Snyder is old news now and pretty boring.  IDK about Kirk Cox, but holding on decisively in 2019 in that district was impressive and he has some bipartisan accomplishments he can sell. 

[Skill and Chance]

Look at the swing of the Shenandoah Valley from 2004 to 2020. It is an attractive area to live in and it would not be unrealistic to expect some internal migrations there. Lower cost of living, phenomenal scenery, and not completely isolated from civilization.

Still votes crushingly Republican though



But votes much like present day Missouri and Indiana.

Wealthier mountain towns => Dem and warm middle class resort areas => GOP is a big story since the Bush era that IMO has been undersold. 

[Skill and Chance]

Is it just me, or does Jay Jones give off “future president” vibes?

Maybe, but Virginia is different enough from America-writ-large now in terms of the people you have to appeal to to win that the path will be harder and having a Virginian on a presidential ticket is probably a net negative in the current alignment (as 2016 arguably showed). 

[Skill and Chance]

The VAGOP just can't catch a break, lol.   What a mess.

https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1369046047037616129

So what happens now?  A normal primary?  A fallback convention site?

[Skill and Chance]

https://twitter.com/CarterElliottIV/status/1386763469387702274?s=20

GG TMac. Time to open a prediction: will TMac win every county and independent city in the primary or lose a handful?

The T-Mac Train is rolling full steam. The guy actually would be a great president as well.

If Dems are smart, they will avoid nominating anyone that close to Clintonworld going forward!

[Skill and Chance]

has the VA GOP clown car primary happened yet?

It's a state convention, not a primary, and it's scheduled for May 8. 

But it is a clown car and that's what matters most.

Oh, I think Youngkin or Kirk Cox could defeat Justin Fairfax. At very least Fairfax would be an underwood.

Right now I predict Terry Mcauliffe winning by 3% or so.

I predict Terry Mcauliffe winning by 15 if it's Trump in heels as his opponent, if it's one of those fake moderate businessmen then I think he wins by 8-10. 

More like 5/6. It's not 2017 anymore.

with the growth in Northern Virginia a ten point win is possible.

It is possible but it doesn't mean it's likely.

It's very candidate dependent.  I could see Youngkin making it as close as 2013.  Chase probably loses as badly as Stewart in 2018.

[Skill and Chance]

If Youngkin is winning 1st round preferences, he's got this.  He's almost surely going to gain votes in the reallocations, particularly with Snyder in 3rd. 

[Skill and Chance]

Hope I'm not speaking too soon, but maybe the GOP doesn't always go for the craziest candidate.

I know Youngkin isn't exactly Charlie Baker, but he's not a raving lunatic like Chase.

Chase may still win, but if she loses, it will be because a. she's a woman b. ran an absolutely terrible campaign filled with gaffes.

If Youngkin is winning 1st round preferences, he's got this.  He's almost surely going to gain votes in the reallocations, particularly with Snyder in 3rd. 

Hopefully Chase runs as a independent.

Why do you care lmfao? TMac is Safe anyway.

Let's see how the education stuff plays out before we assume he's safe against Youngkin.  I expect McAuliffe to win, but it could easily be another 2013 margin. 

[Skill and Chance]

Snyder moved into 2nd now.  A Snyder vs. Youngkin final round could be more interesting than Youngkin vs. Chase.

[Skill and Chance]

I actually think this will be a tougher race for Republicans than MD-GOV 2014. Hogan could at least mount an under-the-radar challenge in a race that went largely unnoticed by the DGA until the final weeks of the campaign and run as a check on the incompetent, complacent, out-of-touch D legislature to pull off his upset. Youngkin (bless his candidacy for the memes) will have to contend with a very reliable and more energized D base (the drop-off in turnout from a presidential year won’t hurt D chances in a state like this, nor would that have been the case pre-Trump), a more robust D ground organization, the inevitable national attention this race will attract, and a very efficient D coalition (Hampton Roads/Richmond/the independent cities are hardly more "elastic" than NoVA). Short of an unprecedented D collapse, he or any other Republican is pretty much DOA against any D candidate regardless of the quality of their campaign, even in a GOP wave environment.

MD 2014 was 7 points more Republican in the GOV race than VA 2013 as well, and Cuccinnelli's and Hogan's candidate qualities obviously weren’t the only reasons for that. Ralph Northam won by nine points against a relatively competent Republican, it’s very hard to see the GOP closing that gap in a state as inflexible in its political preferences as VA!

My prediction would be a D+5-6 win, and that’s pretty close to the best-case scenario for the GOP. A double-digit blowout should surprise nobody.

I'm thinking more like D+2.5-5.  The VA electorate is structurally less realigned/more R in the odd years, 2017 was a significant underperformance of 2018, 2019 a significant underperformance of 2020 and Youngkin does have the ideal VA R profile (vaguely socially conservative businessman focused on education and employment).  He will be good at making Dems look like the aggressors on social issues, which is key to keeping it close, but I do agree with you on how hard it will be for R's to get over the line.

[Skill and Chance]

So now we progress through three near-meaningless rounds of apportionment until we find out if Chase and Cox's overlapping bases allows her to overtake Snyder and lose to Youngkin.

What? Cox is a 20+ year state legislator with something of a moderate streak (most notably, negotiating the original medicaid expansion).  Chase is a hardcore "2020 was stolen" Trump activist. Or do you mean geographical?

[Skill and Chance]

Virginia voted 52D-47R for the House of Representatives in 2020, and that was frankly with a bunch of not-very-competent Republican candidates running (Bob Good, Nick Freitas) throughout the state. The state Democratic party has had a bunch of scandals over the past two years and Northam's approvals are weak; moreover, Youngkin will probably be able to outspend McAuliffe.

(Youngkin also fits the mold of the sort of Republican who wins or does well in gubernatorial elections in blue states -- big spender without much of a political record at all running at a Democrat highly affiliated with the state government -- but I don't know that that's actually necessary since VA is double-digits to the right of all of these places).

Anyway, I think D+5 -- which is treading water with 2020 -- would be a good outcome here for Democrats. I agree that McAuliffe is favored -- this is a Leans D state and Youngkin is unproven enough that you could see him crashing and burning -- but I'd put Youngkin's odds of winning at maybe 35-40%.

If Republicans are already on track for a 2010/2014 wave in 2022 by November, then Youngkin will need to win. The environment can change in a year -- in 2013, the reasons for the 2014 wave hadn't really congealed yet -- but Youngkin losing would mean the wave isn't there yet. A narrow loss for Youngkin would still mean they're on track to take the House/Senate, mind, they just wouldn't be doing it very impressively.

If Democrats are on track to hold the House, they should definitely improve off of D+5. Holding steady with Northam/Gillespie would be a very good sign. If McAuliffe wins by double-digits, like some have suggested, it would be a result characteristic of 2022 being a Democratic wave where they might hold the House. (But, again, a year is long enough for things to change).

Did you adjust for Morgan Griffith being unopposed in VA-09?

No, but it doesn't change much since this is a seat where Democrats rarely break 1/3 and are poorly organized in. Assigning an appropriate fraction of Griffith's vote to the Democrats, whether by universal swing from 2018 or 2016, gets you to D+7, though if assume many of those were under-voters (Biden/no vote for House, rather than Biden/House R) it goes to D+6. (National House vote was D+3 -- not sure which side left more seats uncontested, though. By contrast, Virginia was D+10 presidentially while the nation was D+5).

(Basically, Virginia is somewhere 2-5 points left of the US, and getting further left over time. But that's still perfectly winnable for the GOP in a good year, and you'd expect them to take it in a wave. The opposite-side counterpart isn't OH/IA, but somewhere like NC. Which I guess Democrats have had a lot of trouble winning recently, but it isn't unwinnable.)

I agree this is likely competitive, but it has nothing to do with the 2020 US House vote.  The US House vote does not track with presidential results and appears to have long term realignments (there's much stronger evidence than for presidential elections).  From 1948 to 1988, the US House popular vote was more D than the presidential vote every single time except 1964, and since 1992, it has been more R than the presidential vote every single time except 2008.  There are a very significant group of voters who want a Dem president and a GOP House right now.  In VA, these people usually vote Dem for governor.  

[Skill and Chance]

Every Democrat in Virginia should unite and vote for TMac in the primary. We must do all we can to prevent Lee Carter from being the nominee. Lee Carter would be destroyed. Oh and of course.. our rapist Lt. Governor.

It would be nice if the other candidates dropped out today, and endorsed TMAC before Youngkin is able to blast the airwaves and build up an insurmountable lead. We’ll see how many of them actually value keeping the far-right out of power over continuing their divisive vanity campaigns though.

Basically I think the HoD is a toss up with McAufflie.

My predictions are:

Tmac by 3 over Youngkin

Jennifer Carol Foy or Jennifer Mcclellan would lose to Youngkin by 7 to 10.

Fairfax or Carter by atleast 15 points losing to Youngkin.

An underrated possibility is that R's snag LG and or AG if McAuliffe wins narrowly, but after seeing the 2020 results, I believe there are now 51 HOD districts that are clearly left of the state.  Pretty easy to see them falling to exactly 51 on a bad night, though. 

[Skill and Chance]

McAuliffe will win by at least 5%.

The Virginia GOP is lucky that they didn't nominate Chase, but all that's really worth is them losing by less than an absolute blowout.

They could flip LG or AG if it's McAuliffe by 5 or less though.

[Skill and Chance]

1) Flooding the airwaves non stop can have a point of diminishing returns. At some point, all the money in the world is not going to change peoples minds and may even have a counter negative effect. See GA-06 2017 Special election.

Agreed.  If it's close, this will not be why.

2) Kirk Cox may have actually been the biggest threat to the Democrats for a variety of reasons. Consistent over performer in a lean to likely Democratic seat and was just conservative enough to hold his base in the general and just moderate enough to appear to be  a "nice caring guy". Plus his stint as a social studies teacher certainly helps.

Disagree strongly here.  The voters deciding a VA statewide election, particularly with off-year turnout will be wealthy-ish businesspeople who intensely disliked Trump on a personal level.  Youngkin's background is a much better fit for them than Cox's background.  Furthermore, nominating a pre-Trump "lifetime legislator" is likely to depress base turnout at least a bit.  Finally, the efforts Youngkin's organization made to get long term unemployed people rehired last year are as likely to resonate with poorer, fiscally strapped swing voters as Cox's Medicaid expansion deal (voters who care about it are more likely to credit Dems for Medicaid expansion, Cox's deal was arcane and only stood for one legislative session anyway).   

3) Kirk Cox also would have had the regionalism advantage. Downstate people do not like Nova. Now it is literally McLean vs Great Falls. No regional advantage for the GOP in this race.

Disagree strongly.  When in doubt, having a NOVA R unambiguously helps. 

4) This Youngkin nomination, as I have brought up before, has literally woken Democrats up. I could easily see someone like Cox quietly sneak by with a complacent Democratic electorate. This will not happen now If anything Democrats are becoming wide awake and more aggressive.

Maybe if this ties into #1 and he drops $50M worth of ads over the summer, but Youngkin has so far been better about downplaying social conservatism than Cox or Snyder, let alone Chase.  Cox specifically would invite Dems to relitigate all the controversial McDonnell GOP trifecta era socially conservative laws.  Cox was in the legislature back then and generally voted for those bills. 

5) Expecting suburban areas that voted heavily downballot for the GOP as late as 2016 (even if they voted for Clinton) and voted heavily for Romney in 2012 to remain as Democratic under Biden was not going to happen. But not all suburban areas are the same. No doubt some people in Loudoun County have changed their political perferences the past decade or so and no doubt some will be Biden-Youngkin voters but the sheer vote total boosts suggests that most of Loudoun's shift is literally new voters registering. Industry is important and the dominant industries of Nova lean Democratic heavily.

Agreed.  Loudoun will be hard and Fairfax harder.  A big swing in Prince William is achievable, though, as is getting the exurban counties back to pre-Trump levels. 
 

6) Though on the other hand I would be worried about the Hampton Roads area, with the only saving grace for Democrats there is the large black population.  No Virginia Beach City is not going to vote for the GOP by double digit margins but it will be a very tough area for the Democrats to  keep winning. Especially this year.

Agreed.  This is the big opportunity and Youngkin has roots there despite currently living in NOVA.

7) You know the person who did the worst in rural Virginia since the 2016 election? His name is Joe Biden. Even with that, look at county results east of the Shenandoah and compare them to similar counties in states south and west of Virginia. Democrats really did impressively well. Spanberger could not have won re-election with some rural support. I also do not expect rural areas to be as pro-Youngkin as they were pro-Trump.

Yes, I would expect a NOVA businessman intentionally toning down his social conservatism to do a bit worse than Trump in rural VA, but not dramatically so.  The rural population is simply too small to swing the state anyway, so it shouldn't be the focus of a smart campaign.

I put it Lean D as well.  It's easy to see Youngkin cutting the margin to McAuliffe +2-4, but he needs everything to go right to get beyond that.

[Skill and Chance]

It's really too bad b/c Caroll Foy would've been a good pick if not for McAuliffe. Oh well.

Also LOL @ Fairfax

She should have run for Lt. Gov.  I think T-Mac and her would have made a good ticket.

Yes, definitely.  Honestly none of the LG candidates seem particularly strong and the GOP nominee has a lot of potential.  LG is at great risk of flipping if McAuliffe's margin is 5% or less.  AG could be a mess too as a narrow Herring primary win looks like the most likely outcome.  That's the most awkward situation for Dems.

[Skill and Chance]

Glad T-Mac is returning, and hope VA will get rid of its ridiculous archaic "no consecutive terms" law like KY did over 20 years ago.

Ehhh... I think it's kind of a cool ideosyncracy.  If they are going to reform something, they should get rid of the odd-year elections for state offices and move Governor/LG/AG to presidential years. 

[Skill and Chance]

Virginia counts quickly right? So will we have a good idea of LG on Tuesday? Governor should be a lock for McAuliffe and Herring looks like a clear favorite for AG.

I doubt LG will be called quickly since there is no apparent favorite. Traditionally Virginia had counted quickly since prior to 2020 you could only vote absentee if you had a valid reason, which meant very few ballots were outstanding after in-person voting took place. The thing that will slow down the LG count this year (and likely any call): your vote by absentee/mail ballot must be postmarked by Election Day; Tuesday, June 8 and must be received by your General Registrar’s office by Friday, June 11 by noon.

Mail ballots as a % of the total primary vote will not be anything close to mail ballots as a % of the 2020 GE or primaries, so it should go faster than 2020. 

[Skill and Chance]

Update: as of now, there are about 35K mail ballots outstanding that theoretically could arrive today or within the postmark deadline if mailed today.  

[Skill and Chance]

What would happen in the state house if it's actually D+1 like the most recent poll showed? 

2019 was D+9.4 and a 55D/45R result on the current map.

2017 was D+9.3 and 51R/49D but with a much more R-leaning map prior to the court case

Biden improved substantially over 2010's Dem numbers in thoe swing suburban seats, but lost ground in some safe Dem seats, so if the 2021 results skew toward Biden, the Dem situation will improve substantially.  I think it would end up being 52R/48D or so?

[Skill and Chance]

The last gubernatorial election heavily underestimated Northam and I won't be surprised if it happens again. I don't really care how polls over- or under-estimated Biden or Senators tho, those are pretty different races.

Agreed on the senators and Biden, but the fact that McAuliffe himself was heavily overestimated in 2013 when running for the same office could be relevant here.