Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[Canis]

https://twitter.com/Elections_Daily/status/1335287105619103744

I've said it before and I'll say it again. Republicans are way more likely to flip New Jersey next year.

Yep, although they will flip neither.

Virginia is also likely to have the stronger Dem nominee.

How popular is Phil Murphy?

Moderate. He has many of the same problems as Cuomo, in that he maintained an extremely strict approach to Covid well beyond when the state was in a crisis situation, horribly botched the nursing home situation, and has been caught in a few hypocrisies along the way. He'd be vulnerable if the Republicans had a candidate who could unite the opposition, peel off some centrist Dems, and avoid coming off like a wingnut...but they don't.

I'd say he has roughly a 70% chance of re-election, while McAuliffe would have a roughly 95% chance at winning his second term.

Do you view Hughin as a credible threat?

[Canis]

https://twitter.com/AJFriedenberger/status/1335323546122407939
I'm sure T-Mac is drinking rum right now to celebrate.

lol VA Gov Lean D > Safe D

https://twitter.com/Elections_Daily/status/1335287105619103744
I've said it before and I'll say it again. Republicans are way more likely to flip New Jersey next year.

Yep, although they will flip neither.

Virginia is also likely to have the stronger Dem nominee.

How popular is Phil Murphy?

Moderate. He has many of the same problems as Cuomo, in that he maintained an extremely strict approach to Covid well beyond when the state was in a crisis situation, horribly botched the nursing home situation, and has been caught in a few hypocrisies along the way. He'd be vulnerable if the Republicans had a candidate who could unite the opposition, peel off some centrist Dems, and avoid coming off like a wingnut...but they don't.

I'd say he has roughly a 70% chance of re-election, while McAuliffe would have a roughly 95% chance at winning his second term.

Do you view Hughin as a credible threat?

Not Ray Goldfield, but if Hugin could not beat a comically unpopular Senator, while flooding the airwaves, he isn't beating a popular Governor, either.

Thats true but as VT, NH, MA, MD, KY, and KS show us voters are a lot more likely to vote for a different party then they do for federal-level elections in state elections. and its 2017 its an off-year election turnouts gonna be low weird results are possible

[Canis]

Race is obviously safe D. What's Chase's ceiling?

I see her getting between 8-15 points but on a really good night she could get like low 20s at her max

[Canis]

Carter's departure from HD-50 ironically makes me feel better about the seat. I wish he would stay in the house of delegates though as we need his voice. (I hate anyone who is wealthy).

But yea, HD-50 is relatively competitive for Northern Virginia so if the climate got good for the GOP it could flip especially with a Democrat like Carter.

I have not made a decision in the primary yet between Jennifer Carrol Foy or Terry Mcauliffe.

Hes running for reelection in HD-50 too so if he loses the VA gov dem primary he's still going to run for reelection. Also yall hate on Lee Carter away to much he's charismatic and funny af and has a very good story I don't think he'll win but he's got a better shot than you'd think

[Canis]

Carter's departure from HD-50 ironically makes me feel better about the seat. I wish he would stay in the house of delegates though as we need his voice. (I hate anyone who is wealthy).

But yea, HD-50 is relatively competitive for Northern Virginia so if the climate got good for the GOP it could flip especially with a Democrat like Carter.

I have not made a decision in the primary yet between Jennifer Carrol Foy or Terry Mcauliffe.

Hes running for reelection in HD-50 too so if he loses the VA gov dem primary he's still going to run for reelection. Also yall hate on Lee Carter away to much he's charismatic and funny af and has a very good story I don't think he'll win but he's got a better shot than you'd think

With Carters military background and his persona I doubt he would end up losing the general election but it could be close with a headache and result in delegate seat losses.

Its possibly there would be some blood letting in the most upscale parts of nova and in particular fairfaix.

But he would probably pull it out at the end and already has experience in running competitive campaigns. He was a prime target in 2019.

But I'm playing it safe.
 

Vote how you feel id consider backing carter I'm not from VA but just vote for whoever you think would be the best governor that's how I handle my vote in CA as many others have pointed out VA has moved from being a pure tossup swing state to being a CO NM tier state if you think T-Mac would make the governor of the field than vote for him

[Canis]

Carter's departure from HD-50 ironically makes me feel better about the seat. I wish he would stay in the house of delegates though as we need his voice. (I hate anyone who is wealthy).

But yea, HD-50 is relatively competitive for Northern Virginia so if the climate got good for the GOP it could flip especially with a Democrat like Carter.

I have not made a decision in the primary yet between Jennifer Carrol Foy or Terry Mcauliffe.

Hes running for reelection in HD-50 too so if he loses the VA gov dem primary he's still going to run for reelection. Also yall hate on Lee Carter away to much he's charismatic and funny af and has a very good story I don't think he'll win but he's got a better shot than you'd think

Lee Carter is a Rose Twitter grifter, there is absolutely a reason to hate him

Name one reason you hate hin lol. Hes been an effective legislator in the house of delegates and got Maced during the black lives matter protests I like the guy. It seems you don't like him cause he's funny on twitter lol.

[Canis]

Carter's departure from HD-50 ironically makes me feel better about the seat. I wish he would stay in the house of delegates though as we need his voice. (I hate anyone who is wealthy).

But yea, HD-50 is relatively competitive for Northern Virginia so if the climate got good for the GOP it could flip especially with a Democrat like Carter.

I have not made a decision in the primary yet between Jennifer Carrol Foy or Terry Mcauliffe.

Hes running for reelection in HD-50 too so if he loses the VA gov dem primary he's still going to run for reelection. Also yall hate on Lee Carter away to much he's charismatic and funny af and has a very good story I don't think he'll win but he's got a better shot than you'd think

Lee Carter is a Rose Twitter grifter, there is absolutely a reason to hate him

Name one reason you hate hin lol. Hes been an effective legislator in the house of delegates and got Maced during the black lives matter protests I like the guy. It seems you don't like him cause he's funny on twitter lol.

He refused to endorse Biden...

Crazy I'm sure that had a huge impact on the election lmfao. How does that mean he would make a poor governor? I'm talking about the character of a man refusing to give an endorsement in a Safe D state and influencing zero votes is a pretty lame reason

[Canis]

I am doing a lot of thinking whether I would support Jennifer Carrol Foy.

yes she is the electable progressive. But I fear I may have to vote for Terry McAuliffe. The anti fairfax and carter people need to stick together and I do not want to risk the Democrats losing it.

This guy says "Fairfax and Carter" run everything:

TBF I agree about Farifax... he's really the only dem I see losing the general the guys a sexual predator.

[Canis]

Lol I really think best case scenario for Dems is Snyder winning and Chase running as a indy. But even like Cox who is the VA GOPS best candidate could at best keep the race within in low single digits. Crazy how Blue Virginia is now compared to ten years ago.

[Canis]

Yikes, not looking good here. Thank god TMAC seems to be the front runner for the nomination, he’s really the only one with a chance of beating Youngkin.

I don't see how people see Youngkin as a strong candidate the man doesn't even support Same-Sex marriage.
I see any of the D's beating youngkin by a decent amount besides maybe Fairfax and Carter because Farifax is a sexual predator and Carter seems to barely be trying to run a campaign T-mac and the Jennifers would crush any of the republican candidates. Cox is the GOP's strongest candidate and I can't see him cutting margins in Farifax and Loundon County by enough to give him a shot of winning and now he's out of the race. Till further notice, I'm rating this at Likely D closer to Safe then Lean unless a big scandal comes up on the Democratic Nominee and even then it would have to be pretty big.

[Canis]

Yikes, not looking good here. Thank god TMAC seems to be the front runner for the nomination, he’s really the only one with a chance of beating Youngkin.

I don't see how people see Youngkin as a strong candidate the man doesn't even support Same-Sex marriage.
I see any of the D's beating youngkin by a decent amount besides maybe Fairfax and Carter because Farifax is a sexual predator and Carter seems to barely be trying to run a campaign T-mac and the Jennifers would crush any of the republican candidates. Cox is the GOP's strongest candidate and I can't see him cutting margins in Farifax and Loundon County by enough to give him a shot of winning and now he's out of the race. Till further notice, I'm rating this at Likely D closer to Safe then Lean unless a big scandal comes up on the Democratic Nominee and even then it would have to be pretty big.

I absolutely don’t think this guy is a moderate at all but the Enemy of the People media is desperate for a horse race here (see those Dave Wasserman tweets) and will regurgitate his framing as a “moderate, pro-business nice guy ” as necessary.

I highly doubt the early media framing of Youngkin will tilt this race in his favor. Once he opens his mouth on the campaign trail and debate stage and his record his brought up none of that will matter.  Even then I doubt people will see that he's a "moderate buisnessman " and choose to back him because of it. We just came off a complete clown show that nearly ended our democracy when we elected a "buisnessman".

[Canis]

Current T Mac ads: nurses, doctors, masks, women talking about abortion rights.

Current Youngkin ads: him fumbling through a grocery store + non stop ads featuring a bunch of really old white male cops.

Pretty obvious to everyone but MT Treasurer and THG who is running the better campaign here.

I only see youngkin signs in Fairfax but I think it may be because he is winning the extreme wealthy and Democrats are more likely to live in condos, townhouses or apartments thag forbid signs?

From my experience in Cali, a lot of campaigns have stopped using Signs as they often become litter and don't break down and are horrible for the environment and the data on signs is that they don't help a campaign at all for how much they cost to produce. So the lack of T-Mac signs maybe because he's not using any. Also, Republican campaigns use signs a lot and they often don't ask for permission to put them up so who knows how much of those signs are people buying them and putting them up instead of campaign volunteers just putting them up on their own. I've seen a few Elder signs and some Yes signs but I know where I live is gonna vote massively against the recall just due to how democratic leaning my area is. I saw an equal amount of Trump and Biden signs before the election and Biden won my area 69-29 basically.

[Canis]

Yard signs as a campaign tactic are intended to increase the perception of social acceptability for supporting the candidate - the idea is that they reinforce the idea that "you are not alone."

The data do show that this does tend to have non-negligible effects on independent/non-ideological voters who live in highly partisan areas, which is why you will often see R signs in D areas, and vice versa. There is some great writing about how Doug Jones' 2017 campaign made great use of this tactic in the Birmingham suburbs and Mobile area.

Data also show that they are far more effective in local races and ballot measure campaigns.

I'd be interested to see that writing about Doug Jones's campaign. When I went through the National Democrat Training Committee's TAP Training Program they advised us to not use campaign signs because they're costly and ineffective. They suggested Mailers are a much more efficient method of campaigning along with just plain old door-to-door conversations with voters. So that's where I was coming from on that pretty much they said signs don't sway nearly enough voters for the price tag it takes to produce and distribute them along with collecting them after the election.

[Canis]

https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1448000768045289473